Predicting the Biggest Risers and Fallers in the Tennis Rankings in 2016
As the ATP and WTA Tours close out 2015, players are jockeying for position in 2016.
The new season is less than two months away. Late-season triumphs can build momentum going into the new year. Likewise, an October or November slump could erode confidence that lingers into next season.
Who will rise or fall in 2016?
Rankings are based on a "what-have-you-done-for-me-lately" points system. Whether a player moves up or down depends on the likelihood that they can repeat success or overcome setbacks of 2015.
On the ATP Tour, the Top Five appear cemented in a tier above the rest of the field. Novak Djokovic has such a substantial lead at No. 1, Rafael Nadal should have no problem getting back to the elite, while Roger Federer and Andy Murray will battle for No. 2. Otherwise, don't expect much movement among the leading names.
Serena Williams also has a sizable lead at No. 1. Like Djokovic, Williams has a ton of points to defend. But she has nearly a 4,000-point lead over Simona Halep, who has Garbine Muguruza and Maria Sharapova within about 1,000 points.
None of those players mentioned make the list, because whether they rise or fall in the rankings, it won't be by that much.
The players on this list are those I predict will make significant moves forward or backward. This includes young stars such as Bernard Tomic and Belinda Bencic, and veterans like Richard Gasquet and Roberta Vinci.
The following are predictions for players most likely to make a significant rise or fall in 2016.
Honorable Mention Riser: Borna Coric
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Borna Coric's career high was No. 33. Ranked No. 46, the soon-to-be 19-year-old will climb beyond his career high in 2016.
Tuesday he notched another big win, with a 6-4, 6-4 victory over Fernando Verdasco in Paris. He's growing stronger and more confident. Coric will also compete in the IPTL, getting valuable match time with the game's greats.
Coric, along with Dominic Thiem and Tomic, are among four players nominated for most improved in 2015.
Honorable Mention Faller: Roberta Vinci
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Everyone will remember Roberta Vinci's stunning upset over No. 1 Serena Williams that ended the world No. 1's bid for the calendar-year Slam and set up an all-Italian final in the U.S. Open.
What people will forget is that Vinci benefited from a walkover in the fourth round after Eugenie Bouchard suffered a concussion after a freak accident. Then there was a rain day.
Vinci's dream 2015 sets up a nightmare of points to defend. Ranked No. 15 now, the exuberant 32-year-old will turn exhausted in her quest to stay in the Top 20. I predict Vinci will fall out of the Top 25.
Riser: Belinda Bencic
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Bencic had a serious shot at finishing in the Top 10, but injuries kept her out of tournaments to gain extra points.
Rested and healthier, the 18-year-old will have no problem rising in the rankings. In fact, she will pull this off before the clay-court season.
Bencic began 2015 in a slump. She lost five of her first six matches, excluding one win at the Fed Cup. She has fewer than 100 points to defend all the way through to Indian Wells. Bencic, ranked No. 14, should soar into the Top 10.
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Faller: Kei Nishikori
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Unlike Bencic, Kei Nishikori got off to a strong start in 2015. He reached the semis at Brisbane, the quarterfinals at the Australian Open and won Memphis. He reached the finals in Acapulco, won Barcelona and reached the semifinals in Madrid.
Along with having massive points to defend, the 25-year-old seems to be in perpetual recovery mode. His game is tough on his body.
Besides battling to defend his points, Nishikori has a group of seasoned veterans in Richard Gasquet, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and David Ferrer around him, who could easily overtake him in the rankings should he stumble.
I predict Nishikori will fall out of the Top 10 and struggle to stay in the Top 20.
Riser: Bernard Tomic
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When Tomic was arrested in Miami this summer, it appeared he might be headed for a new low. Instead, the Australian regrouped and his career has been on the rise ever since.
Tomic arrived on the scene with such high expectations. Although he's been a known name for five years now, he just turned 23 in October.
He won his first ATP title (Claro Open in Columbia) this summer. He reached the quarterfinals in several tournaments, including Indian Wells and the Shanghai Masters.
The 6'5" player always had the talent, and it seems like he's finally getting his head together. Tomic will reach another career high in 2016.
Faller: Simona Halep
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Simona Halep may have missed her chance to rise in the rankings at WTA Finals. Seeded No. 2, Halep was the first player eliminated at the tournament.
Her poor showing in Singapore could have long-lasting effects in 2016, as Garbine Muguruza and Maria Sharapova were able to add valuable points to their totals.
Sharapova has Brisbane and a finals showing at the Australian Open to defend, and the bigger threats to Halep's No. 2 ranking are Muguruza and Agnieszka Radwanska.
In 2015, Halep's focus was on catching Serena Williams. Next year, she'll have to contend with fending off Bencic, Radwanska and Muguruza. It won't be easy. Expect Halep to fall out of the Top Five before Wimbledon.
Riser: Sloane Stephens
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Sloane Stephens won her first title in 2015, but she still fell out of the Top 40.
Since then, the 22-year-old has been working her way back. With few points to defend, the American also has the advantage of playing with lower expectations.
Madison Keys has taken on the role of next-big thing in American women's tennis, leaving Stephens to cruise back into the Top 20 in 2016.
Faller: Richard Gasquet
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Like Vinci, Gasquet had the best season of his career. Also like Vinci, Gasquet will find it difficult to repeat that success.
A player with vareity in his game, Gasquet is steady enough, but he just doesn't have that lights-out game you find in Stan Wawrinka, Murray or even Tsonga.
With a host of younger players like Coric and Thiem on the rise and the established stars such as Djokovic, Federer and Nadal unwilling to give up ground, the 29-year-old has no place to go but down, way down.
Riser: Peng Shuai
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Unlike Gasquet, Peng Shuai has no place to go but up.
A semifinalist at the 2014 U.S. Open, Peng will best be remembered for the heart-breaking collapse in the heat at Flushing Meadows. What was supposed to be the proudest moment in her career, ended in despair as she was taken off the court in a wheelchair.
She finished 2014 ranked No. 22.
Earlier this year, the 29-year-old suffered back problems and finally opted to undergo back surgery that ended her season in May. Even with rest, it will take a while to get back into top form. But she's ranked No. 140.
With her talent, Peng will skyrocket up the rankings. She might be the biggest mover next season.
Riser: Dominic Thiem
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Dominic Thiem, 22, is the youngest player in the Top 25. Ranked No. 19, the Austrian already has three ATP titles under his belt from this year.
Unlike Tomic, who struggled early in his career, Thiem has been on a steady upward trajectory. He finished 2014 ranked No. 39 and reached a career-high No. 18 in August. If he continues to win in Paris, Thiem could reach a new career high before the year is out.
Expect Thiem to continue to roll in 2016.
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