Early Predictions for the 2015-2016 Free Agency All-Bust Team
Bust—it's a word with a negative connotation.
That's even truer in sports, as the term "bust" sticks with a player throughout his career. Over the next few slides, we'll identify our all-bust team filled with free agents that could potentially flop next season.
By sifting through stats, we can see trends that are developing during a player's career. Home runs, RBI and ERA are nice, but they don't always tell the entire story.
Take Matt Wieters for example. He may be the only viable free-agent catcher available, but can a team really justify signing a player with such an eye-opening injury history? Yoenis Cespedes can be a difference-maker too, but is he really worth upward of $150 million?
Those are just a few of the players we'll touch on over the course of this slideshow. Be sure to let us know what you think in the comments section below. Would you be content with your team signing any of these players for next season?
Teams that get it right in free agency are already one step ahead for the upcoming season. Let's dive into some names that teams with desperate needs should stay away from.
Starting Pitcher: Tim Lincecum
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2015 Stats: 7-4, 76.1 IP, 4.13 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 7.07 K/9, 4.48 BB/9, 0.3 WAR
Tim Lincecum's inclusion on this list is dependent upon his role next season. The right-hander has value as a long reliever who's capable of spot starting, but he's just not the two-time Cy Young winner he once was.
In 2015, Lincecum split time between the rotation and the bullpen. He posted a 4.13 ERA and walked over four hitters per nine innings. Lincecum has always had control issues, but the strikeouts have always balanced those free passes out. As his strikeout percentage reached a career low, the walks have been magnified.
Lincecum does have value due to his durability and ability to eat innings. Still, his velocity has seen a significant dip, which has forced the right-hander to feature his changeup as his predominant pitch.
At 31, Lincecum is not the same pitcher he was in his prime. He still has a role somewhere in MLB, but any team that pays him like a starter will be foolish.
Relief Pitcher: Tyler Clippard
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2015 Stats: 5-4, 71 IP, 2.92 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 8.11 K/9, 3.93 BB/9, 0.2 WAR
Tyler Clippard is arguably the most accomplished relief pitcher on the free-agent market, but potential buyers should beware.
There's no doubt that Clippard has been a reliable late-inning option throughout his career. The right-hander has a sub-3.00 ERA in nearly 500 career appearances. In those games, Clippard has struck out over 26 percent of the batters he's faced.
But Clippard showed some signs of deterioration this past season. His 2.92 ERA looks even worse next to a 4.28 FIP. He also posted his lowest strikeout percentage in a full season of work, set another career worst in strikeout percentage to walk percentage and allowed a career-high average to right-handers.
Clippard's stuff was similar to what we've seen in the past in 2015, so maybe he's due for a rebound in 2016. Still, he'll make the most money of any reliever this offseason when there are plenty of other late-inning options that can provide similar production for a cheaper price tag.
Catcher: Matt Wieters
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2015 Stats (75 games): .267/.319/.422, 8 HR, 24 R, 25 RBI, 100 wRC+, 1.0 WAR
In Matt Wieters' defense, there aren't too many intriguing catching options in the upcoming free-agent class.
But Wieters' injury past alone is enough to warrant bust potential. The 29-year-old has played in just 101 games over the last two seasons, missing time with a Tommy John injury that had lingering effects long after the surgery.
When healthy, Wieters is a dependable backstop with pop. He hit 20 or more homers in every season from 2011 to 2013. Wieters benefited from a short porch at Camden Yards, pulling the ball over 40 percent of the time, which led to quality home-run-to-fly-ball rates.
Wieters will get paid due to a limited catching market. But for a team in need of a backstop, Wieters presents significant risk. If his elbow continues to cause problems, he'll lose tremendous value if he has to move out from behind the dish.
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First Base: Mike Napoli
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2015 Stats: .224/.324/.410, 18 HR, 46 R, 50 RBI, 98 wRC+, 0.7 WAR
Mike Napoli has the power that teams look for in first basemen, but at 34, Napoli should have interested organizations wary of signing him to a multi-year deal.
At this stage in his career, Napoli is nothing more than a platoon player. The right-handed hitting Napoli crushed lefties to the tune of a .278 average and 12 homers in 2015. Against righties, however, Napoli hit just .191 with six home runs.
Napoli managed to go yard 18 times this past season, but his peripheral stats indicate a decline in production is coming. He recorded his lowest line-drive percentage since his debut in 2006 while posting career-worst marks in soft- and hard-contact percentages.
Chris Davis is the premier first-base target, which will make Napoli an attractive plan B for teams with needs at that position. Despite his power, Napoli isn't worth the multi-year deal he'll likely command at this stage of his career.
Second Base: Stephen Drew
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2015 Stats: .201/.271/.381, 17 HR, 43 R, 44 RBI, 76 wRC+, 0.2 WAR
Somehow, Stephen Drew continues to earn playing time year after year for teams with infield needs.
That must stop this season. Drew is among the worst offensive players in baseball and can't be relied on to provide quality production for extended periods of time.
Drew hit .201 this past season with a sub-.300 on-base percentage. That was slightly better than his .162/.237/.299 slash line from 2014. Among players with at least 350 plate appearances this past season, Drew ranked in the bottom 25 in wRC+.
If a player is going to be an albatross offensively, they better make up for it in the field. That's not the case with Drew. He's capable of playing multiple positions adequately, but he's only posted six defensive runs saved throughout his career.
We're cheating a bit here, as Drew has played primarily at shortstop during his career. Still, the 32-year-old isn't worthy of a contract of any kind this winter. For teams that are in need of a utility player, looking to the minor leagues is a better idea than inking Drew to any type of deal.
Third Base: David Freese
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2015 Stats: .257/.323/.420, 14 HR, 53 R, 56 RBI, 110 wRC+, 2.2 WAR
It's a little unfair to label David Freese as a potential bust, considering he's really the only third baseman of value entering the market this winter. Yet, there are still some worrying parts to his game.
Since 2012 when Freese hit .293 with 20 homers with the St. Louis Cardinals, he's seen a steady dip in his walk rate. That number has fallen from over 10 percent in 2012 to just 6.6 percent last season. Freese is strikeout-prone, so that drop in free passes has directly affected his on-base percentage.
Freese is also a poor defender at the hot corner. He's recorded a positive number of defensive runs saved just once in his career, costing his team 30 runs at third base since 2009. The 32-year-old has also played in 140 or more games only once in his career.
For a team in need of a stopgap third baseman, Freese isn't a horrible option. He's one of few quality players available at that position, which will also enhance his value.
Still, there's no need for teams that need an upgrade at the hot corner to overpay for a player with noticeable flaws like Freese.
Shortstop: Ian Desmond
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2015 Stats: .233/.290/.384, 19 HR, 69 R, 62 RBI, 13 SB, 83 wRC+, 1.7 WAR
From 2012 to 2014, Ian Desmond was one of the top offensive shortstops in MLB. He posted three straight 20-20 seasons during that time frame.
But Desmond's run of impressive production ended this past season. The 30-year-old hit just .233 with an on-base percentage below .300. Desmond failed to steal 20 bags for the first time in four seasons and struck out in nearly 30 percent of his at-bats.
Desmond's defense was even more problematic. He ranked second in MLB in errors this season while finishing 16th out of 23 qualified shortstops in defensive runs saved.
There aren't many shortstops hitting the market this winter, but teams should steer clear of Desmond. He's a shaky defender and a feast-or-famine hitter that's already on the wrong side of 30.
Left Field Yoenis Cespedes
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2015 Stats: .291/.328/.542, 35 HR, 101 R, 105 RBI, 135 wRC+, 6.7 WAR
Yoenis Cespedes sure didn't look like a bust in 2015.
The 30-year-old mashed 35 homers and drove in over 100 runs with the Detroit Tigers and New York Mets this past season. Cespedes really made an impact after joining the Mets at the deadline, hitting 17 homers in just 57 games.
But Cespedes' fantastic second half can't hide who he is as a player. The outfielder goes through plenty of peaks and valleys throughout a season. He's a power hitter that doesn't walk, which gives him very few chances to make an impact if he's not driving the baseball.
Cespedes is obviously a useful player who's capable of carrying a lineup when he's hot, but it's hard to justify paying a career-.319 OBP guy the money he'll be looking for on the free-agent market. There are multiple free-agent outfielders that are safer and cheaper options.
Center Field: Denard Span
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2015 Stats (61 games): .301./.365/.431, 5 HR, 38 R, 22 RBI, 11 SB, 120 wRC+, 1.4 WAR
Teams should never pay aging players whose games are predicated on their legs, which is exactly why Denard Span has bust potential.
The 31-year-old has already showed signs of a deteriorating body. Span played in just 61 games this past season after staying relatively healthy during his first two seasons in Washington. Span was effective when he was in the lineup but was never really a factor in the Nats' season.
Span's offensive game isn't going to change as he ages. He's hit the ball on the ground over 50 percent of the time in his career, and he's legged out over 240 infield or bunt hits. He's already just an average defensive outfielder as well, and those skills will only diminish as he gets older.
If a team can convince Span to sign a short-term deal, some of the risk associated with him will diminish. Still, Span is not the type of player teams should throw free-agent money at if there are other options available.
Right Field: Gerardo Parra
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2015 Stats: .291/.328/.452, 14 HR, 83 R, 51 RBI, 14 SB, 108 wRC+, 0.4 WAR
Will the real Gerardo Parra please stand up?
That's what baseball executives will be saying this winter when trying to decide just how much to pay the 28-year-old outfielder.
Parra slashed .291/.328/.452 with 14 homers, 83 runs and 14 stolen bases this past season. It was a career year for Parra, who had never been known for his offensive output before 2015. Before this season, Parra posted a wRC+ over 100 just once in his big league career, meaning he's consistently been a below-average offensive outfielder.
Defensively, Parra was nowhere near the outfielder he's been in the past. After posting an incredible 41 defensive runs saved in 2013, he's recorded a negative total in that category in each of the last two seasons.
Parra has a place on a major league roster, but no team should fall in love with him after a career offensive year in 2015. He's a reliable hitter but will enter bust territory if an unwise team decides to pay him like a difference-maker.
Stats courtesy of FanGraphs and accurate as of Nov. 8.
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