1-Year Offseason Trade Rentals Who Could Make Big 2016 Impact
While you're scanning a list of potential free agents that will be available this winter, don't forget there should be a handful of impact players available via trade over the coming months.
Over the next few slides, we'll identify a few major leaguers entering the final year of their contracts who could be trade candidates during the offseason.
No organization wants to trade quality players. But in some cases, teams just don't have many options. Attractive players become expendable when teams realize they won't be able to match the asking price the player will be looking for when they hit free agency.
That could be the case with Stephen Strasburg and Aroldis Chapman. Both flamethrowers have elite arm talent but look to be heading toward paydays that their respective teams won't be able to afford. Instead of watching them walk after one final season, doesn't it make sense for the Washington Nationals and Cincinnati Reds to flip their stars for a prospect package before they leave next winter?
In other cases, certain players may become tradable because they just don't fit in with their current teams. Mitch Moreland, Andrew Cashner and Jay Bruce are names that may have just outstayed their welcome in their current cities.
Let us know what you think about these rental ideas. Would you be OK with your team parting ways with one of these guys, knowing they could be crucial to its success in 2016? On the flip side, how would you feel if your team parted ways with multiple prospects in exchange for one year of a rental player?
The MLB offseason is always filled with moving parts and surprising plot twists. Let's dive into some players and organizations that could make headlines over the coming months.
Mitch Moreland
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2015 Stats: .278/.330/.482, 23 HR, 51 R, 85 RBI, 115 wRC+, 2.1 WAR
The Texas Rangers are the only team Mitch Moreland has ever known, but the veteran first baseman could be sporting a different jersey come 2016.
Moreland is entering the final year of his current contract after arguably his best season as a pro. The 30-year-old hit 23 homers and drove in 85 runs, while posting career highs in on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The left-hander crushed right-handed pitching this season, making him an interesting trade chip for teams in need of left-handed pop.
The problem with Moreland is the Rangers just may not need him next season.
Texas had a predominately left-handed middle of the lineup in 2015, with Moreland, Prince Fielder and Josh Hamilton all hitting from that side of the plate. Mike Napoli was acquired late last season to break up that left-handed log jam, and Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News has reported the two sides have had "preliminary discussions on a deal" to bring Napoli back.
Are the Rangers planning to use Moreland in a platoon capacity with Napoli? If that's the plan, why not move Joey Gallo across the diamond to fill that void? Gallo should be major-league ready at the dish in 2016 but may lack the defensive chops to stick at the hot corner.
Moreland has been a mainstay in the Rangers dugout since the club won back-to-back AL championships in 2010 and 2011. He's still a player who could help an offensively challenged ball club, but it doesn't seem like he fits in Texas any longer.
Jay Bruce
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2015 Stats: .226/.294/.434, 26 HR, 72 R, 87 RBI, 91 wRC+, 0.1 WAR
Jay Bruce has always flashed the jaw-dropping power and sweet left-handed stroke that makes those in baseball circles drool at his potential.
But Cincinnati Reds fans know Bruce's game has its share of warts, too. This winter, Cincinnati would be wise to part ways with the 28-year-old slugger and move on with its outfield plans.
Bruce hit 26 homers and drove in 87 runs this year. He's mashed at least 30 home runs and recorded over 90 RBI in every season from 2011 to 2013. Power is a luxury in today's MLB, and those numbers will be a focal point in any discussion involving Bruce when he reaches free agency.
That run production may be enticing, but Bruce continues to sacrifice on-base percentage for long balls, and ultimately strikeouts. He's whiffed over 20 percent of the time in every season of his big-league career. The Reds have enough run production in the middle of the lineup with Joey Votto and Todd Frazier. Why not fill Bruce's spot with a short-term option who gets on base in front of them while upgrading the farm system at the same time?
At 28, Bruce still has plenty of upside. He's proven to be a formidable offensive presence in the past and will intrigue teams with outfield needs. Cincinnati needs a roster revamp and can live with trading a player they may not even re-sign next winter.
Andrew Cashner
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2015 Stats: 6-16, 184.2 IP, 4.34 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 8.04 K/9, 3.22 BB/9, 2.3 WAR
San Diego Padres general manager A.J. Preller's grand vision of turning his club into playoff contenders crashed and burned this past season. San Diego still has plenty of tradable assets, but numerous holes must be filled if the club wants to contend in 2016.
The Padres are in a weird position this winter, which makes Andrew Cashner viable trade bait over the next few months.
On paper, Cashner didn't have the best of seasons. He posted a plus-4.00 ERA and walked more than three hitters per nine innings for the first time since 2012. Yet, the right-hander improved his strike-out rate, maintained his career ground-ball percentage and allowed the highest amount of soft contact in his career.
Cashner has a big arm, which will entice any team with rotation needs. He sat in the mid-to-upper-90s with both his four-seam and two-seam heaters last season. The right-hander ranked in the top 10 in MLB in four-seam velocity and two-seam velocity this past year.
Velocity isn't everything, but Cashner's electric arm and his peripheral stats bode well for a return to form. San Diego would probably rather hold onto, and potentially extend, Tyson Ross long term, leaving Cashner as the likely trade piece this winter.
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Aroldis Chapman
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2015 Stats: 33 SV, 66.1 IP, 1.63 ERA, 1.94 FIP, 15.74 K/9, 4.48 BB/9, 2.5 WAR
Aroldis Chapman is one of, if not the best, closers in MLB. If this decision were based solely on talent, there would be no reason for the Cincinnati Reds to trade him this offseason.
But consider the bigger picture. Chapman is entering his walk year next season. After making roughly $8 million in arbitration in 2015, he'll likely see a raise closer to the $12 million range next season. When Chapman finally reaches the open market, those figures will be chump change compared to what he'll command as a free agent.
Chapman deserves that payday. He's saved over 30 games in four-straight seasons, while striking out over 40 percent of the batters he faced in 2015. Since his debut in 2011, Chapman ranks second among relievers in WAR and leads MLB in strikeouts per nine innings.
Chapman is an elite closer, but he's on a team that has much greater needs. The Reds likely won't contend in 2016 in a loaded NL Central and probably won't be able to retain Chapman when he enters free agency.
Add it all up, and the writing is on the wall for a potential winter blockbuster.
"So the Reds are where they are: rebuilding," said John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. "Chapman will probably bring a package of prospects. The Reds have to do that. I think they will. In fact, an insider told me they will 'probably' trade Chapman."
Chapman will help rejuvenate the Cincinnati farm system, but that haul will be less impressive if the Reds wait until the trade deadline. It'll be tough to watch one of the most exciting players in baseball leave, but it's the best long-term decision for the Reds.
Stephen Strasburg
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2015 Stats: 11-7, 127.1 IP, 3.46 ERA, 2.81 FIP, 10.96 K/9, 1.84 BB/9, 3.4 WAR
Would the Washington Nationals really trade Stephen Strasburg? As the right-hander enters the final year of his contract, Washington's resolve is about to be tested.
Strasburg has been an enigma throughout his major-league career. The 27-year-old has flashed some of the best raw stuff in MLB, recording a career ERA of 3.09 and striking out over 28 percent of the batters he's faced since debuting in 2010.
On the other hand, Strasburg has battled command issues and has been slowed down by various injuries throughout his career. He's logged over 200 innings just once since his debut and has already gone under the knife for Tommy John. Those aren't exactly the traits teams look for in a front-line starter.
Regardless, Strasburg will get paid like an ace next winter. He's a Scott Boras guy, and MLB's resident super agent is accustomed to leading his clients to big paydays on the free-agent market. With $210 million invested in Max Scherzer and elite prospect Lucas Giolito on the way, could it actually be a no-brainer for the Nats to shop Strasburg?
"So that's the argument, boiled down: Your franchise is in turmoil after a bitterly disappointing season," said B/R's own Jacob Shafer. "Strasburg is probably leaving for big money next year anyway. Shop him now and get something back."
Trading Strasburg will be a tough pill to swallow for Nats fans. He's a former No. 1 overall pick and was one of the faces behind Washington's turnaround over the course of the decade.
But this is the hand the organization was dealt. Strasburg is an elite talent, but there are plenty of point-blank reasons to cash in on his electric repertoire this winter.
Stats courtesy of FanGraphs and accurate as of Nov. 6.
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