Baylor Bears vs. Kansas State Wildcats Betting Odds, College Football Pick

Baylor is 5-2 over the last seven meetings with Kansas State but only 3-4 against the spread, because the Wildcats have kept most of those meetings close. The Bears, without their starting quarterback, will go off as big road chalk for Thursday night's clash with the Wildcats in Manhattan.

Point spread: Bears opened as 18.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 49.8-15.8 Bears

Why the Baylor Bears can cover the spread

Baylor is 7-0 on the season, 4-1 ATS over its last five games, after downing Iowa State two weeks ago 45-27. The Bears then had last week off.

BU, as a 35-point favorite, led the Cyclones 35-0 midway through the second quarter, then it coasted from there, eschewing the cover. On the day, the Bears outgained Iowa State 485-388, and it probably would have been worse had they not taken their foot off the gas.

Baylor took a hit when quarterback Seth Russell suffered a season-ending neck injury, but backup Jarrett Stidham comes highly regarded. The Bears might have to rely a bit more on their running game and defense from here on out, but they're equipped for that.

Why the Kansas State Wildcats can cover the spread

K-State started 3-0 this season, averaging 34 points per game, then lost at Oklahoma State 36-34 on a field goal with 30 seconds left and followed that up with a 52-45 loss to TCU, allowing the winning score with one minute to go. But the Wildcats covered as seven-point dogs against the Cowboys and as eight-point dogs against the Frogs.

Kansas State has since lost two more games in a row (versus Oklahoma and at Texas), and it had last week off.

The Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last eight spots as home dogs, and they are 4-0 ATS their last four times out as double-digit dogs. If Kansas State can use its running game to move the chains, work some clock and make some stops on defense, it could keep this one close.

Smart pick

The loss of Russell will hurt, but the Bears are a complete outfit. They're averaging 338 yards per game on the ground, while the defense is allowing just 150, and Russell has nothing to do with that.

Meanwhile, Kansas State has been outgained each of its last five games by an average of almost 200 yards per outing. Even with the change at quarterback, the smart bet here is Baylor playing on the road, where the spread is a little more amenable.

Betting trends

Kansas State is 7-1 straight up and 6-2 ATS in its last eight games at home in November.

Kansas State is 0-4 SU in its last four games.

Baylor is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games on the road in November.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.