
2016 NFL Draft: Updated Prospect Radar Post-Week 8
It's almost like the college football gods got together this weekend and decided to slow-play the sport during Halloween. The most exciting game of this week might have been the triple-overtime matchup between the Oregon Ducks and Arizona State Sun Devils on Thursday night, as no one in the Top 25, other than Duke on a blown call, lost Saturday.
There were a few close calls involving the Stanford-Washington State, Notre Dame-Temple, Michigan-Minnesota and Colorado-UCLA games, but nothing to write home to mom about. Despite the levels of excitement not reaching max potential, these games can all be used for scouting purposes, as 256 picks need to be made in the spring of 2016. Around February, college football fans will be begging to rewind time to a "boring" slate of games.
Over the week, five players have really stood out to me. One is a rising star. One is a misvalued athlete. One is a transitioning skill player. One is a bounce-back prospect. And one is letting us down this season. They all come from different backgrounds, and some of them are trending upward, while others are dropping.
At the end, I added my top five players on my big board currently, with explanations as to why I pegged them as the elite prospects of this year's draft. Think of it as a late Halloween treat to you, since I can't pass out an extra candy bar to you over the Internet.
Stock Up: Darren Carrington, WR, Oregon
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Darren Carrington has been branded. Whenever a player becomes a nationally story, a label tends to follow him throughout his career, right or wrong. Last year, heading into the Pac-12 Championship Game, Carrington had just 413 yards on 23 receptions. By most standards, he was just a guy.
He then had back-to-back huge performances against Arizona in the Pac-12 Championship Game and against Florida State in the first round of the inaugural College Football Playoff. In those games, he totaled 14 receptions, nine fewer than his season total prior to those matches, and 291 yards.
Unfortunately, he was suspended for the national championship game due to a failed drug test. His suspension also rolled over into the 2015 season, postponing his season debut until October 17, when the Oregon Ducks faced the Washington Huskies. After playing just two games in 2015, he has 232 yards and three scores, which means he has 523 yards and six scores over the last four games he's played in.
His suspension is going to be included in the first paragraph of evaluations, but he's since broken the shell of being "that guy" to being a real NFL prospect with a past. His father, also named Darren Carrington, played for eight years in the league as a defensive back.
Carrington is only a redshirt sophomore, but he is one of the hottest receivers in college football, and if his stock continues to rise, he may be a dark-horse contender to declare for the 2016 draft class. He has the frame that NFL teams want at 6'2" and 196 pounds, plus he has the speed and hands to transition to the next level. If a franchise takes the time to develop the young star, this diamond in the rough might just be turn into a crown jewel.
Current draft projection: Day 2 pick
Stock Down: Leonard Floyd, EDGE, Georgia
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Leonard Floyd is basically who Dion Jordan was at the University of Oregon. Floyd was thought of as a pass-rusher last season, but because Lorenzo Carter, a sophomore, is so talented, Floyd has moved to a mostly off-of-the-ball role this season. At linebacker, he's doing well in coverage, but how high are you willing to go on a coverage linebacker?
Jordan went third overall, but at defensive end, he was asked to be a pass-rusher. That means either (A) the Miami Dolphins wrongly projected him at the professional level and basically ruined him from the start or (B) the front office and the coaching staff weren't on the same page. In many ways, Floyd needs the right home in the same way Jordan did. He might be a perfect fit for a team such as the New England Patriots, who are emphasizing dropping linebackers and have a history of long-term decisions that have panned out, but I can easily see him failing in 25 other spots in the NFL.
I have seen some mock drafts that feature Floyd as a top-10 pick; that's insane. His peak is going to be a DeAndre Levy type of player, who was selected in the third round in 2009. A little-known fact about Floyd is that despite the fact he's a junior, he's going to turn 24 years old in the second week of the 2016 season if he declares.
In today's NFL, with so many teams either dropping a safety down into the box or playing a third safety, I don't see the point in taking someone like Floyd, who is already "old" and developed by college standards, in the first round. We've seen this show before.
Current draft projection: Second-round pick
Stock Up: D.J. Foster, WR/RB, Arizona State
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D.J. Foster started his college career at Arizona State as a running back. In his first three years, he played that position; however, in his freshman and sophomore seasons when he was a rotational player, he recorded more receiving yards than rushing yards. It wasn't until last year, as a junior, that he broke out as a runner.
As a senior, Foster, a known commodity, made the risky move of unnecessarily switching positions at the college level post-stardom. Arizona State or Foster must have received word that he was being looked at more at the next level as a pass-catching prospect and not a ball-carrier. With his 6'1", 195-pound frame, that makes sense.
Foster's 2015 was relatively slow up until Thursday's matchup against the Oregon Ducks. His highest receiving yardage totals this year came at clips of 67 yards, 58 yards and 57 yards, with his 58-yard performance coming against Cal Poly, an FCS team.
Down the stretch against the Ducks, though, Foster really picked it up. His six receptions, 87 receiving yards and 116 total offensive yards hit season highs in a 61-55 triple-overtime heart-breaker.
I can imagine a team creatively using Foster as a motioning wide receiver. When De'Anthony Thomas, who is now a receiver with the Kansas City Chiefs, played at the University of Oregon, he moved from running back to a "Tazr" position, a hybrid running back and receiver look. In the NFL, he's motioned into the backfield in an I-formation every once in a while. Another "move" receiver who is making an impact is former top-10 pick Tavon Austin, who is used as a staple in St. Louis' misdirection run game.
Transitioning to new position isn't easy, but Foster has proved himself draftable based on his complete collegiate resume. If he can continue to flash more this season, he might solidify himself as a late Day 2 or early Day 3 pick.
Current draft projection: Third-round pick
Stock Up: Carl Lawson, EDGE, Auburn
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Last week, I noted how Laremy Tunsil, a top offensive tackle from Mississippi, was one of the biggest risers after he shut down Myles Garrett of Texas A&M, whom many believe is the top pass-rusher in the country, despite the fact that he's only a true sophomore. In Tunsil's second game back from suspension, he faced Carl Lawson of Auburn, another worthy opponent.
In my opinion, Lawson did better against Tunsil than Garrett did. Lawson only posted one tackle in the stat sheet, but the pressure he created forced some early and poor balls from Ole Miss' passer. Lawson hadn't recorded a tackle since the opening game of the season, against Louisville, prior to this Saturday, when he returned from hip issues that kept him off the field. He also missed his true sophomore season last year with a torn ACL.
Lawson has shown potential since his true freshman season of 2013, the same year that the Tigers went to the BCS National Championship Game. If Tunsil can be a top prospect despite missing time, and Todd Gurley was just drafted early after both a suspension and a major injury, Lawson could also be a top-10 pick, as he's clearly recovered from his health shortcomings, should he choose to declare in 2016.
If I were forced to pick three pass-rushing prospects to invest in from the FBS, Garrett, Joey Bosa and Lawson would be my picks without question. Can an NFL team pass on Lawson's talent if he's healthy? Isn't limited tape just semantics when he's improved from his freshman year, when he was winning against the highest competition the country had to offer?
If your squad is looking for a 3-4 pass-rushing outside linebacker, Lawson should be the top guy on your wish list. He can bend the edge, is explosive for a "tweener" and has upper body and hand strength to make him a threat as a speed-to-power or bull-rush player.
Current draft projection: Top-10 pick
Stock Down: Anthony Zettel, DL, Penn State
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Being low on someone doesn't mean you dislike him as a prospect in a vacuum, just on a relative scale. This is the case with Anthony Zettel. On the Penn State defensive line, he was the stud heading into the season, but two others have emerged as the storylines of their 2015 unit: Carl Nassib and Austin Johnson.
Now that the hype train is focused on Zettel's senior year and not videos of him tackling a tree, he looks much different. He's playing a defensive tackle role in what is essentially a defensive end's body from an aesthetic standpoint.
Is he going to shed some weight in an attempt to be a 6-technique 4-3 defensive end or gain weight to a 3-technique 4-3 defensive tackle or 5-technique 3-4 defensive end? Right now, he's in purgatory.
He's only notched one solo sack this season, and in high-profile games, like against Ohio State, he's not really flashed much as a pressure player. So, you're getting a one-sided run-stopper playing outside of his ideal size in a passing league. None of that bodes well for Zettel's projection.
At the end of the day, a team will take a stab at him around the top 100 picks, but some had hoped he'd take the jump into the first-round conversation before the season had started; he looks to be four cafeteria tables away from discussion. No, Zettel can't sit with Robert Nkemdiche or Joey Bosa.
Current draft projection: Late third-round pick
Bonus: Top-5 Rankings
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1. Laremy Tunsil, OT, Mississippi
Laremy Tunsil was banned from participation earlier in the season, but in limited time, he's looked like the best player in college football. It's not sexy to rank an offensive lineman high, especially after some highly drafted players haven't panned out, such as Eric Fisher, but Tunsil is the most complete offensive tackle I've seen.
Before Jake Long and Fisher were first overall picks, the only offensive tackles taken that high in the draft's history were Orlando Pace and Ron Yary. The latter is in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, and one day Pace will be there, too. Tunsil fits in with Pace more than Fisher, who was a finesse player, and Long, who was physical but not an elite talent.
2. Joey Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State
Joey Bosa has one of the best speed-to-power transitions in college football. With that being said, I'm not sure where he plays in a 3-4 defense. He's obviously a defensive end in a 4-3, but he's a bigger guy who wins with strength, and playing him at outside linebacker in space doesn't seem ideal on paper. He's not big enough to play at 5-technique, either.
3. Robert Nkemdiche, DL, Mississippi
There's some backlash in the draft community surrounding Robert Nkemdiche, who is still a raw prospect. He's either a 5-technique defensive end in a 3-4 defense or a 3-technique defensive tackle in a 4-3 defense at the next level. He's not a sack artist, but that doesn't mean his bull-rush pressure doesn't show up elsewhere on the stat sheet. If you can watch one Rebels game and don't see the impact Nkemdiche has, you need glasses.
4. Jalen Ramsey, DB, Florida State
Florida State's top cornerback may be the best free safety prospect since Earl Thomas. He's a master of two positions, and while it's rare for a defensive back to go in the top five picks of the NFL draft, with a team like the Baltimore Ravens picking early, it's totally possible. At the end of the day, though the league's safety thirst is apparent, Ramsey sticks at cornerback, a "premium" position.
5. Jaylon Smith, LB, Notre Dame
I'm not a big advocate of taking non-premier positions high, like an off-the-ball linebacker, but Jaylon Smith is elite at his craft. He may not be the most athletic player on the field, but he's above average in that category, plus he has great instincts, and his tackling ability ranks among the best. He's going to be a plug-and-play starter for someone. UCLA's Myles Jack is the only linebacker on his level in this potential draft class, but because of Jack's injury, Smith should get the nod.
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