Predicting Each MLB Team's Biggest 2015-16 Offseason Move
Already this October, we have laid out our big board of the top 25 free agents set to hit the market this offseason, broken things down to the top five free agents at each position, looked at a potential fix for each team's biggest weakness and cautioned with a potential roadblock each team could face this winter.
Now, it's prediction time.
What follows is a look at my best guess for each MLB team's biggest move of the upcoming offseason.
Free-agent signings, trades and in-house contract extensions were all considered here, with the "biggest" being viewed as the one that will have the greatest impact on the team in 2016 and beyond.
Are all of these predictions going to come to fruition? Almost certainly not, but based on team need and available options, they appear to at least be realistic options at this point.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Extending CF A.J. Pollock
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The Arizona Diamondbacks did a fantastic job locking up star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt with one of the most team-friendly deals in all of baseball.
Prior to the 2013 season, the slugger inked a five-year, $32.05 extension that kicked in at the beginning of the 2014 season.
The back-loaded deal paid him just $3.1 million this past season as he again put up MVP-caliber numbers, and even the $14.5 million option year for 2019 tacked on at the end is an incredibly reasonable price for one of the game's elite hitters.
Expect the team to push hard to improve the pitching staff this offseason, both in the starting rotation and at the back of the bullpen, but it could very well end up being another extension that is their biggest move of the winter.
Center fielder A.J. Pollock enjoyed a breakout year in 2015, hitting .315/.367/.498 with 39 doubles, 20 home runs and 39 stolen bases for a 7.4 WAR.
The 27-year-old did all of that while earning $519,500, but he's about to get a lot more expensive as he's set for his first year of arbitration eligibility.
The four-year, $25 million extension Michael Brantley signed with the Cleveland Indians seems like a reasonable comp, and considering that was two years ago Pollock can probably expect to get a little more than that if an extension does come to fruition.
For the record, he seems to be open to getting a deal done.
"I like my teammates. I like the coaches. The front office has been awesome,” Pollock told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. “If they talk to me, I’ll obviously talk to them back."
Atlanta Braves: Signing C Matt Wieters
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One of the hardest parts of rebuilding a team is deciding which veterans are worth investing in to provide the biggest impact on the young talent during the rebuilding years.
Last offseason, the Atlanta Braves sold aggressively and went to work restocking the farm system, but they also signed Nick Markakis, A.J. Pierzynski and Jonny Gomes in an effort to bring some veteran leadership to the locker room.
So which veteran could they make a run at this offseason?
"Matt Wieters would appear to be a natural fit for the Braves in free agency," said Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports. "He attended Georgia Tech and owns a home in Atlanta."
Wieters is the top catcher on the market, and after Christian Bethancourt proved to be a bust last year and with the 38-year-old Pierzynski staring down free agency once again, catcher will need to be addressed one way or another.
The 29-year-old Wieters is a candidate for a qualifying offer, and that would certainly have an impact on his free-agent stock. However, the Braves hold the No. 3 pick in next year's draft, so their first-round selection would be protected if they did sign him or anyone else given a qualifying offer.
Wieters endured a trying season in 2015 as he made his way back from Tommy John surgery, tallying just 248 at-bats and hitting .267/.319/.422 with 14 doubles and eight home runs.
However, prior to being injured, he was one of the game's elite defensive catchers, a perennial 20-home run threat and a three-time All-Star.
His ability to lead the pitching staff could go a long way in helping the team's rebuilding efforts, and there's no reason to think his offensive game can't bounce back as he's still in the prime of his career.
Baltimore Orioles: Re-Signing 1B Chris Davis
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Chris Davis won't come cheap as the reigning AL home run champ, but after watching Nelson Cruz depart last offseason the Baltimore Orioles will pony up to keep the big slugger this time around.
Part of the reason there is still a chance they bring Davis back is that, despite a clear need to improve the pitching staff, there's a good chance they won't break the bank on another starter.
Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, Kevin Gausman and Ubaldo Jimenez appear to be locked into rotation spots, with Tyler Wilson and Mike Wright set to battle it out for the No. 5 starter spot.
The disappointing four-year, $50 million deal they gave Jimenez appears to have made them at least a bit gun-shy when it comes to spending big on pitching, and as a result keeping Davis around could be priority No. 1.
Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors has begun rolling out the site's free-agent profiles, and he predicted a six-year, $144 million deal for Davis.
If the Orioles can somehow find a way to talk that down to five years and closer to $120 million, a deal could get done to keep the 29-year-old around long term.
With the offensive emergence of Manny Machado this past season, keeping Davis in the fold gives the team one of the better one-two punches in all of baseball to anchor the lineup.
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Boston Red Sox: Signing SP Johnny Cueto
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Despite his struggles down the stretch after being traded to the Kansas City Royals, and a horrendous outing in his last start in the American League Championship Series, Johnny Cueto will still be one of the top free-agent arms on the market this offseason.
According to Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald, the Boston Red Sox are "at least considering making a serious push" to sign him this offseason as he'll be among a number of arms they target.
At this point, shoring up the bullpen may be the bigger area of need, as the team would benefit greatly from signing at least a couple of the top relievers on the market.
However, after failing to land that front-line arm to anchor the staff last offseason and paying the price, the new front office may feel obligated to do so this time around and Cueto could very well wind up being their guy.
With Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Eduardo Rodriguez, Henry Owens and Joe Kelly already in the mix for rotation spots and Clay Buchholz also around if his $13 million option is exercised, the Red Sox have plenty of starting pitching options.
Signing an ace could make the staff a legitimate strength, and at this point the most likely candidates appear to be Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann.
Chicago Cubs: Acquiring SP Tyson Ross from the San Diego Padres
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The Chicago Cubs will likely kick the tires on most of the free-agent pitching market as they search for a third quality arm to slot alongside Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester atop the rotation.
David Price will be a popular rumored target given his status as the top arm on the market and his previous working relationship with Cubs manager Joe Maddon during their days in Tampa Bay.
However, at the end of the day, it may be the trade market where the Cubs find the arm they're looking for.
According to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times, the Cubs made a serious run at acquiring both Tyson Ross of the San Diego Padres and Carlos Carrasco of the Cleveland Indians leading up to the trade deadline, though both pitchers wound up staying put.
Ross looks to be the more likely of the two to be dealt this winter, and the Cubs look like a good trade fit with the Padres.
Building a package around Starlin Castro or Javier Baez to fill the glaring hole the Padres have at shortstop makes sense for both sides.
It would likely take the Cubs throwing in a couple of solid prospects on top of that to get a deal done, especially if Castro is the one that gets moved, but the pieces are there.
Ross, 28, has gone 23-26 with a 3.03 ERA, 1.259 WHIP and 407 strikeouts in 391.2 innings the past two seasons to emerge as one of the better starters in the National League.
He has two years of team control remaining, and would become a potential extension candidate if the Cubs were to acquire him this winter.
Chicago White Sox: Signing 3B David Freese
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The Chicago White Sox got some nice value out of bargain pickup Conor Gillaspie as their primary third baseman in 2014, but he struggled mightily this past season and the position wound up being a significant hole.
All told, the White Sox got a .226/.277/.345 line with 13 home runs and 50 RBI from their third basemen in 2015, and with no clear in-house answer, upgrading there figures to be among their biggest areas of focus this offseason.
Unfortunately, the free-agent market is incredibly thin at the position once again, as David Freese and Daniel Murphy look like the two viable everyday options.
Freese makes sense as a right-handed hitting run producer who would slot nicely into a somewhat lefty-heavy White Sox lineup.
He's dealt with injuries throughout his career, but he's always been a solid run producer, and in his two seasons with the Angels he was a 3.7 WAR player.
Freese had a .743 OPS with 27 doubles, 14 home runs and 56 RBI in 424 at-bats this past season, and something like a three-year, $30 million deal may be enough to land him, depending on how the market shapes up.
Don't rule out a reunion with Juan Uribe on a one-year deal as a possible answer for the White Sox at third base, but we'll say signing Freese ends up as their biggest offseason move.
Cincinnati Reds: Trading RP Aroldis Chapman to the Diamondbacks for Prospects
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A number of teams were in the market for Aroldis Chapman leading up to the trade deadline, but the Arizona Diamondbacks appeared to have the most serious interest in acquiring him.
In fact, the team made a formal offer for the flame-throwing closer a few days before the deadline, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, but the two sides were unable to get a deal done.
As the Cincinnati Reds continue to rebuild, Chapman looks like as safe a bet as anyone to be traded this offseason, as a rebuilding team doesn't have much use for an elite closer making north of $10 million.
He won't come cheap, but the Diamondbacks have one of the deepest farm systems in baseball and should be able to put together an attractive package.
The following may be enough to get a deal done:
- SP Aaron Blair or SP Braden Shipley
- 2B Chris Owings or IF Brandon Drury
- OF Socrates Brito or OF Gabby Guerrero
Blair and Shipley are both top-100 prospects and would add another quality arm to the mix for a Reds team with an abundance of good young pitching right now.
Owings and Drury would be potential long-term replacements for Brandon Phillips at second base, while Brito and Guerrero are both high-ceiling outfielders capable of taking a big step forward in their development as they approach being big league ready.
The Diamondbacks get the elite bullpen arm they're searching for, and the Reds add three more quality young pieces to the rebuilding efforts.
Cleveland Indians: Flipping SP Trevor Bauer to MIA for CF Marcell Ozuna
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The Cleveland Indians were interested in Marcell Ozuna at the trade deadline, and as they search for a right-handed power bat this winter he could become a potential target once again.
Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors suggested a potential swap of Ozuna for right-hander Trevor Bauer as a deal that could make sense for both the Indians and Marlins, and that's an idea that could gain some legitimate traction once the offseason begins.
Ozuna, 24, is a controllable bat with plenty of upside, but he has seemingly fallen out of favor in Miami after being demoted to Triple-A at one point last season and not taking the move well.
While the 2015 season was a disappointing one for Ozuna, he was terrific in his first full season in the majors the previous year when he hit .269/.317/.455 with 26 doubles, 23 home runs and 85 RBI.
He's also graded out as an above-average defender in center field during his three years in the majors, posting 5 DRS and a 0.6 UZR/150 for his career.
Giving up on Bauer would be tough, as he's shown flashes of being a front-line starter during his career, but if the Indians can find a way to upgrade the offense without moving Carlos Carrasco or Danny Salazar they would no doubt welcome the opportunity.
Colorado Rockies: Signing SP Mike Pelfrey
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If the Colorado Rockies wind up finding a suitable trade partner for Carlos Gonzalez, that would immediately become the biggest move of the offseason for them, but my hunch is that he stays put this winter and is instead moved in July.
That means it could be a quiet winter for the Rockies, as they again have the unenviable task of trying to convince free-agent pitchers to come pitch in Coors Field.
They wound up settling for a one-year, $5.5 million deal with Kyle Kendrick last offseason, and he proceeded to rank as perhaps the worst starter in the National League as he went 7-13 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.525 WHIP in 142.1 innings of work.
There is some talent in the rotation with Jorge De La Rosa and Chad Bettis both turning in solid seasons in 2015 and former top prospects Eddie Butler and Jon Gray still working on establishing themselves at the big league level.
At least adding another quality veteran to the mix might give them a shot at respectability, and Mike Pelfrey could be a good fit at a relatively low cost.
The 31-year-old finished the year at 6-11 with a 4.26 ERA (4.00 FIP) and a 1.476 WHIP in 164.2 innings of work for the Minnesota Twins.
What makes him a potential target for the Rockies is his ability to keep the ball on the ground, as his 51.0 percent ground-ball rate was 19th among qualified starters and well above the league average, according to FanGraphs.
He's not an ace, but he'd be a welcome addition to the Colorado rotation.
Detroit Tigers: Signing SP Ian Kennedy
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The Detroit Tigers appear to be targeting second-tier arms this offseason in an effort to fill out the starting rotation behind Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez and ahead of young arms like Daniel Norris, Michael Fulmer and Buck Farmer.
The team has already been linked to Ian Kennedy, Jeff Samardzija and Scott Kazmir, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, and those three all fit that middle-of-the-rotation mold at this point in their respective careers.
Samardzija may wind up on the expensive side if someone thinks he can rebound from a disappointing 2015, while Kazmir seems to be at home in Houston and looks like a strong candidate to be re-signed.
With that in mind, Kennedy appears to be the most likely to join the Tigers at this early stage in the game.
The 30-year-old went 9-15 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.295 WHIP in 168.1 innings of work, and he's averaged 196 innings of work per season over the past six years.
Improving the bullpen remains a must for this team, and it should start with finding a proven closer to slot in the ninth-inning role.
However, signing Kennedy to a three-year deal in the $12 million per year neighborhood would rank as the team's biggest offseason move, and it would be a nice first step in shoring up the rotation.
Houston Astros: Extending SP Dallas Keuchel
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Dallas Keuchel is set to become arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason, and he could do it with an AL Cy Young Award added to his resume.
The 27-year-old came out of nowhere to emerge as one of the biggest breakout stars of 2014, and he proved to be even better this past year in helping lead the Houston Astros back to the postseason.
All told, he finished the season at 20-8 with a 2.48 ERA, 1.017 WHIP and 216 strikeouts in 232 innings of work for a 7.2 WAR.
He was as important to the success of his team than any player in baseball this year, as he gave the Astros that one starter they could lean on to help take pressure off the rest of the staff and the bullpen.
So it's no surprise the two sides have already begun discussing a long-term deal, according to Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle:
"This is all I’ve known, and it’s where I want to be. I know we’re in a great position for the next probably five, 10 years, and that’s what it’s all about, it’s all about winning. Me personally, it’s not about the dollar amount. It’s about winning, because it doesn’t last forever. I know that. So at the end of the day, I just want to win. I want one of those rings.
With that being said, it’s got to be something that’s fair and that’s right for both parties. I’m not trying to break the bank. I’m just out here to have fun and pitch and do the best I can.
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As a pitcher who doesn't rely on velocity to get hitters out and who has a clean delivery, Keuchel seems like as safe a bet as any pitcher to invest in long term from a health standpoint.
The five-year, $38.5 million deal signed by Corey Kluber, who has a very comparable track record, could be a good starting point in negotiations.
Kansas City Royals: Re-Signing LF Alex Gordon
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Shelling out $100 million-plus to bring back Alex Gordon may not be the best move for the Kansas City Royals long term, but it's a move they are going to do everything in their power to make this offseason.
Why isn't it the smartest move?
With Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar and Wade Davis all set to hit free agency after the 2017 season and Salvador Perez deserving a raise, the team needs to start thinking about extending some other core pieces.
There is also the matter of right field, where Alex Rios turned in a disappointing regular season and will likely have his $12.5 million option declined.
At the end of the day, letting Gordon and Rios walk and replacing them with something like Gerardo Parra and Marlon Byrd could be a better allocation of funds.
However, as a lifelong Royal and a fan favorite, Gordon means more to the team than just his production on the field.
He suffered through an injury-shortened 2015 season, but he's still one of the game's most valuable players thanks to his elite-level defense and strong all-around offensive game.
It wouldn't be shocking to see Gordon wind up somewhere else this winter, but for now it looks like bringing him back remains the Royals' No. 1 priority.
Los Angeles Angels: Signing 2B/3B Daniel Murphy
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With holes to plug at second and third base and a clear need for left-handed hitting, Daniel Murphy looks like the perfect offseason target for the Los Angeles Angels.
As a team, the Angels hit just .236/.289/.356 with 42 home runs and 190 RBI from the left side of the plate, and the bulk of that production came from right fielder Kole Calhoun.
Murphy is not necessarily the middle-of-the-order slugger the team would ideally find to slot between Mike Trout and Albert Pujols in the lineup, but he's coming off a strong season in which he hit .281/.322/.449 with 38 doubles, 14 home runs and 73 RBI.
He's also in the middle of a historically good postseason.
Murphy has homered in six consecutive playoff games, including all four during the team's sweep of the Chicago Cubs in the NLCS, and all told he's hitting .421/.436/1.026 with two doubles, seven home runs and 11 RBI in nine playoff games.
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe recently put a five-year, $75 million potential price tag on Murphy for this offseason, listing big players like the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees as teams with a hole to fill at second base.
However, at this point Murphy is probably a better fit defensively at third base, and the Angels have a clear hole to fill there with David Freese departing in free agency.
If Murphy is agreeable to making the move, signing him could be the best-case scenario for the Angels this winter.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Re-Signing SP Zack Greinke
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The Los Angeles Dodgers are either going to re-sign Zack Greinke or they're going to spend big on another of the market's top arms to replace him, that much is more or less certain.
With Greinke set to opt out of the final three years and $77 million of his current deal, there's a good chance he'll be seeking an average annual value in the $30 million neighborhood.
That could mean something like a five-year, $150 million deal, and if anyone is going to pony up that kind of money without batting an eye it's the Dodgers.
They haven't won anything to this point with their current core of players, but it's hard to say any other team is better positioned for long-term success than the Dodgers.
They have arguably the best farm system in baseball, a never-ending supply of free-agent money and the best pitcher in the game in Clayton Kershaw locked up long term.
Greinke might test the market to see what's out there, and why wouldn't he after turning in a phenomenal season in 2015?
The 32-year-old went 19-3 with a 1.66 ERA, 0.844 WHIP and 200 strikeouts in 222.2 innings this past season, as he'll battle it out with Jake Arrieta of the Chicago Cubs for NL Cy Young honors.
At the end of the day, expect the Dodgers to do whatever it takes to bring him back.
Miami Marlins: Extending 2B Dee Gordon
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Not much went right for the Miami Marlins in 2015, but one bright spot was Dee Gordon, who was acquired in a seven-player deal that sent Andrew Heaney and Kike Hernandez to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
After a breakout season in 2014, Gordon proved he was capable of even more as he led the National League in batting average (.333), hits (205) and stolen bases (58) on his way to a 4.9 WAR.
He also graded out incredibly well defensively, showing a marked improvement in both defensive runs saved (-5 to 13) and UZR/150 (-3.5 to 6.0) compared to the previous season.
All of that makes the 27-year-old a prime candidate for an extension, as he'll be due a significant raise over the $2.5 million he made in his first year of arbitration last winter.
The Marlins need to be careful not to be blinded by his unsustainable 2015 production, though.
He's a solid player and a good piece of the long-term puzzle in Miami, but there is no ignoring the peripheral numbers.
His .383 BABIP this past season was abnormally high, even for a speedy player like Gordon, and we're still talking about a leadoff hitter with a 3.8 percent walk rate.
Regression back to his 2014 numbers seems likely, and that's what the Marlins need to pay for.
Milwaukee Brewers: Signing CF Denard Span
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There is always a handful of free agents each year who are tough to peg heading into the offseason, in terms of what the market will be like to sign them and how much money they can expect to receive.
Denard Span falls into that category this offseason.
The 31-year-old had a terrific season in 2014, hitting .302/.355/.416 and stealing 31 bases while leading the National League with 184 hits.
However, he was limited to just 61 games this past season while battling a hip injury that eventually required surgery in August.
The Nationals were 36-25 (.590) with him in the lineup compared to 47-54 (.465) without him, so any argument can certainly be made for him being a serious impact player atop the lineup and in center field.
The center field market is deeper than normal this offseason, though, as Dexter Fowler, Colby Rasmus, Austin Jackson and Rajai Davis will also be options for teams looking to upgrade at the position.
That could allow the Milwaukee Brewers to swoop in and sign Span at a reasonable price, and they have a clear need in center field and atop their lineup.
Khris Davis, Ryan Braun and Domingo Santana are all in the mix for outfield at-bats as things currently stand, but none of them is capable of playing center field on an everyday basis.
A total of 10 different players hit leadoff for the Brewers last season, with Jean Segura and his .281 on-base percentage seeing the most at-bats at that spot.
Span could provide the offense with a huge boost and help the young pitching staff with his defense in center field.
Minnesota Twins: Signing RP Antonio Bastardo
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It will likely be a fairly quiet offseason for the Minnesota Twins this time around, after the free-agent signings of Ricky Nolasco and Ervin Santana the past two winters did not quite work out as planned.
Bringing back veteran Torii Hunter on another one-year deal seems likely, provided he does in fact decide to play another year, but in terms of the biggest offseason move it will likely come in the form of a bullpen arm.
With Brian Duensing and Neal Cotts both headed for free agency, the team really doesn't have a left-handed reliever who is a lock for next year's bullpen outside of All-Star closer Glen Perkins.
Antonio Bastardo and Tony Sipp are the top two options available in free agency, and with Sipp looking like a fairly safe bet to be re-signed by the Houston Astros, expect the Twins to be one of the team's pushing hard to sign Bastardo.
The 30-year-old posted a 2.98 ERA, 1.134 WHIP and 10.0 K/9 while recording nine holds in 66 appearances.
He could wind up landing a three-year deal, and that would be an investment worth making for the Twins.
New York Mets: Re-Signing LF Yoenis Cespedes
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Money is going to be tight for the New York Mets, as it always is given the approach of their ownership group, but a trip to the World Series should help them in their pursuit of re-signing slugger Yoenis Cespedes.
Cespedes hit .287/.337/.604 with 14 doubles, 17 home runs and 44 RBI in 57 games with the Mets, and the team went an impressive 37-22 after acquiring him at the trade deadline.
The Mets don't necessarily need him from a defensive position standpoint, as Michael Cuddyer, Michael Conforto, Juan Lagares, Curtis Granderson and eventually Brandon Nimmo will all be in the mix for outfield playing time.
However, they can't afford to lose him from an offensive production standpoint, as he completely changed their offensive attack.
Prior to trading for him, the Mets averaged 3.54 runs per game and had a minus-3 run differential in their first 103 games.
After the trade, they averaged 5.39 runs per game with a plus-76 run differential in their final 59 games.
Lucas Duda has turned into a solid power hitter, but unless David Wright finds a way to return to his prime form and Conforto takes a huge step forward, it's hard to see how the Mets replace Cespedes.
Signing Justin Upton or trading for someone like Carlos Gonzalez would be alternative approaches to finding an impact bat to anchor the offense, but we'll say the Mets come up with the necessary money to keep Cespedes around long term.
New York Yankees: Flipping LF Brett Gardner to SD for RP Craig Kimbrel
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On more than one occasion, I've pointed to finding a right-handed bullpen arm to help take some pressure off of Dellin Betances as the New York Yankees' biggest offseason need.
Darren O'Day, Tyler Clippard and Joakim Soria are the best of the bunch in free agency, but the trade market could be the preferred route to finding that last piece of the bullpen puzzle.
The Yankees were linked to San Diego Padres closer Craig Kimbrel at the trade deadline and, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, they were willing to part with shortstop prospect Jorge Mateo and to take on Jedd Gyorko's contract to get a deal done.
However, they may be able to keep Mateo and still get a deal done if they were to build a package around Brett Gardner.
The Padres have a hole to fill in left field with Justin Upton set to walk in free agency, and there is a clear need for both a leadoff hitter type with speed and improved defense in the outfield.
Gardner hit .259/.343/.399 with 26 doubles, 16 home runs, 66 RBI and 20 stolen bases this past season as he was an All-Star for the first time, and he's due a reasonable $37.5 million over the next three years.
It would take more than just Gardner for the Yankees to land Kimbrel, and taking on Gyorko may still be part of that. However, the Yankees should be able to get a deal done without trading one of their top prospects if they are willing to move Gardner.
Oakland Athletics: Extending RF Josh Reddick
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Extensions for established big league talent are not exactly what you would expect out of Billy Beane and the Oakland Athletics front office at this point, but the team appears to be committed to keeping right fielder Josh Reddick.
That according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle:
"One player who will be back, Beane said: right fielder Josh Reddick. Reddick, 28, fits the profile of a player the A’s often move because he’s coming off a good offensive year and will be a free-agent after next season, but Beane said the team is considering an extension for Reddick.
“Josh is a good player and he’s still young,” Beane said. “We’ve always liked having him here. Talented guy, does everything well. ... We’re all very pleased with the year Josh had.”
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Reddick did indeed have a strong year, as he hit .272/.333/.449 with 25 doubles, 20 home runs and 77 RBI for a 3.5 WAR.
After the Josh Donaldson debacle last offseason, it's probably about time the Athletics finally committed to a few of their own instead of just perpetually rebuilding.
Philadelphia Phillies: Signing SP Doug Fister
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The Philadelphia Phillies' top targets this offseason figure to be cheap, veteran starting pitchers capable of eating up innings behind Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff.
Ideally, they would go after potential bounce-back candidates who could then be flipped at the deadline if they do in fact rebound to add more young talent to the rebuilding club.
Doug Fister, Mat Latos and Bud Norris are three pitchers that fit that description among this year's free-agent class, and Fister may be the Phillies' preferred target after they saw plenty of him in recent years.
A case could be made for Fister being one of the most underrated pitchers in the game entering the 2015 season, as he went 16-6 with a 2.41 ERA to finish eighth in NL Cy Young voting in 2014, but he was something of a forgotten man on his own team.
Forearm tightness cost him over a month early in the season this year, and he simply never looked comfortable in going 4-7 with a 4.60 ERA over 15 starts before finally being demoted to the bullpen.
Most concerning of all is the fact that the velocity on both his fastball (87.9 mph to 86.4 mph) and cutter (84.1 mph to 81.8 mph) dropped significantly, according to FanGraphs.
Still, this is a pitcher who was 51-38 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.163 WHIP from 2011 to 2014, and it's worth taking a chance on his 2015 performance simply being a fluke.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Extending SP Gerrit Cole
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The Pittsburgh Pirates managed to sign Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte to team-friendly extensions before they reached arbitration, and they could do the same with ace Gerrit Cole this coming winter.
After showing flashes during his first two seasons in the league, Cole officially joined the ranks of the game's elite starters with a terrific season in 2015.
The burly 25-year-old went 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA, 1.091 WHIP and 202 strikeouts in 208.0 innings, as there's a good chance he cracks the top five in NL Cy Young voting.
Jeff Todd of MLB Trade Rumors wrote about Cole as a potential extension candidate back in March, pointing to the deals given to Madison Bumgarner (five years, $35 million) and Julio Teheran (six years, $32.4 million) as possible comparisons based on similar service time and performance.
The Pirates will be looking to upgrade at first base and will likely be in the market for at least one starting pitcher with J.A. Happ headed for free agency and A.J. Burnett retiring.
However, an extension for their undisputed ace and one of the best young pitchers in the game would clearly rank as their biggest offseason move if they do in fact get a deal done.
San Diego Padres: Signing SS Ian Desmond
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The combination of Clint Barmes and Alexi Amarista at shortstop did not make for a pretty offensive season at the position for the San Diego Padres this past year.
Those two, along with a few scattered starts from Jedd Gyorko and Will Middlebrooks at the position, posted a .228/.279/.365 line with 14 home runs and 57 RBI.
To put that into perspective, San Francisco Giants ace Madison Bumgarner hit .247/.275/.468 this past season.
While the team figures to be more focused on defense this offseason after ranking as one of the worst teams in baseball in that department, they will no doubt try to find a way to add some offensive production at the shortstop position.
Asdrubal Cabrera would be a mid-level target and a clear upgrade, but don't be surprised if the Padres make a run at Ian Desmond.
After a rough first half, Desmond rebounded nicely and looked very much like the player who had three straight 20/20 seasons in the second half.
The 30-year-old hit .262/.331/.446 with 10 doubles and 12 home runs after the All-Star break, and that could be enough for interested teams to simply chalk up his first-half struggles as a fluke.
He won't come cheap, but he also won't be nearly as expensive as he would have been had he hit the market last offseason, and there's a chance he winds up being a solid value.
San Francisco Giants: Signing SP Jordan Zimmermann
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Pencil in Madison Bumgarner, Jake Peavy and Chris Heston for three spots in the San Francisco Giants rotation next season, but the other two are very much up for grabs.
With Tim Lincecum, Ryan Vogelsong and Mike Leake all headed for free agency and Tim Hudson set to retire, change is coming and it's much-needed change.
The team is expected to make a run at re-signing Leake, but he is best suited as a No. 3 or No. 4 starter, so a run at one of the front-line arms on the market looks like a must regardless of what happens with Leake.
Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports pointed to Jordan Zimmermann as a likely Giants target all the way back in August, and he would certainly be a formidable No. 2 behind Bumgarner.
Top prospect Tyler Beede could also reach the majors at some point in 2016, and he has front-line potential.
A staff of Bumgarner, Zimmermann, Leake, Peavy and Heston to start the year with Beede joining them at some point and anything Matt Cain provides as icing on the cake could be enough for the rotation to once again be a strength in San Francisco.
It's going to need to be a strength if they are going to climb back into a tough National League playoff picture where the New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates and Los Angeles Dodgers all look to have a good chance of returning to the postseason in 2016.
Seattle Mariners: Signing LF Justin Upton
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Fixing the bullpen should be the Seattle Mariners' biggest priority this offseason, as there has been a pretty clear correlation between the success of the bullpen and the success of the team over the past three years.
- 2013 (71-91): 4.58 ERA (29th), 23 BS, 33 L
- 2014 (87-75): 2.59 ERA (1st), 11 BS, 20 L
- 2015 (76-86): 4.15 ERA (25th), 16 BS, 36 L
However, that does not necessarily mean that acquiring two or three relievers will be the team's biggest offseason move, as they could once again look to make a splash offensively.
The four-year, $57 million deal they gave Nelson Cruz last winter was worth every penny in year one, as he posted a .936 OPS with 44 home runs and 93 RBI.
The Mariners were still a below-average offensive team, though, as they ranked 13th in the American League at 4.05 runs per game.
Adding another power bat at one of the corner outfield spots seems like the best way to address the need for more offensive firepower, and Justin Upton could be the perfect target.
Upton hit .251/.336/.454 with 26 doubles, 26 home runs, 81 RBI and 19 stolen bases with the San Diego Padres this past season.
The fact that he just turned 28 years old makes him a more attractive target than most to invest $100 million-plus in, and a middle-of-the-order lineup of Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager and Upton would give the Mariners a formidable lineup to back their pitching staff.
St. Louis Cardinals: Re-Signing RF Jason Heyward
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With the emergence of Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty this season, and Matt Holliday still under contract through 2016 with a $17 million option for 2018, you could make the argument that the Cardinals don't necessarily need Jason Heyward.
With that in mind, if they miss out on re-signing Heyward they may not pursue another outfielder to replace him.
However, with key pieces of the offense like Holliday, Yadier Molina and Jhonny Peralta all getting on in age, locking up Heyward as a franchise cornerstone makes sense on more than one level.
It's going to cost a ton of money to extend Heyward, perhaps north of $200 million and as many as eight years, but he's a unique case.
At 26 years old, he is the rare free agent you can sign to a seven- or eight-year deal without having to worry about a steep decline at the back end of the contract, and that makes him incredibly valuable.
He may never be the prototypical middle-of-the-order run producer, but he's the best defensive right fielder in baseball and is coming off a strong overall season offensively that saw him hit .293/.359/.439 with 33 doubles, 13 home runs, 60 RBI and 23 stolen bases.
That all added up to a 6.5 WAR, and going back to his rookie season in 2010 his 31.2 WAR is good for eighth among all position players.
The only other clear area of need for the Cardinals is shoring up the bullpen, as they could use a right-handed setup arm to pair with Kevin Siegrist and may not be able to count on Jordan Walden to be that guy after he missed most of last year.
Until there are signs that he may sign somewhere else, though, the Heyward story will continue to dominate their offseason headlines.
Tampa Bay Rays: Signing C Chris Iannetta
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It's no secret the catcher position has been a black hole for the Tampa Bay Rays for years now, as the team has put a premium on defensive tools behind the plate and done it at the price of offensive production.
Just how bad has it been?
- 2009: .233/.276/.349, 13 HR, 55 RBI
- 2010: .218/.319/.324, 10 HR, 54 RBI
- 2011: .194/.274/.333, 17 HR, 53 RBI
- 2012: .227/.300/.337, 11 HR, 59 RBI
- 2013: .245/.310/.355, 9 HR, 49 RBI
- 2014: .194/.274/.250, 5 HR, 48 RBI
- 2015: .201/.239/.362, 20 HR, 62 RBI
Curt Casali (101 AB, 10 HR) and J.P. Arencibia (71 AB, 6 HR) provided some unexpected pop with a pair of hot streaks, but offseason acquisition Rene Rivera was a huge flop, and the team will enter the offseason once again looking for a starting backstop.
They likely won't break the bank to take a chance on someone like Matt Wieters, but they could find good value in taking a chance on Chris Iannetta.
His 2015 season was not a pretty one, as he hit .188/.293/.335 and eventually lost his job to Carlos Perez.
However, he's just a year removed from hitting .252/.373/.392 and posting a 2.1 WAR, and there's some reason to believe he could bounce back.
A .225 BABIP certainly contributed to his drop in batting average, and he maintained a solid 12.9 percent walk rate, according to FanGraphs.
On something like a one-year, $4 million deal with some incentives tacked on, Iannetta could be the perfect bargain-bin signing for the Rays to target this offseason.
Texas Rangers: Re-Signing SP Yovani Gallardo
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The Texas Rangers starting rotation will be a formidable one next season, regardless of what they do in free agency.
Yu Darvish is expected back healthy from Tommy John surgery at some point in the first half, and he'll join Cole Hamels, Martin Perez and Derek Holland.
That doesn't mean the team won't look to add more starting pitching depth, though, as the free agency of both Yovani Gallardo and Colby Lewis leaves Chi Chi Gonzalez as really the only other viable option on the roster.
Don't be surprised if the team winds up re-signing both Gallardo and Lewis, but it would be Gallardo who would rank as their biggest offseason move.
Lewis led the team in innings pitched for the second straight year in 2015, and proved to be a tremendous value on a one-year, $4 million deal. He could see that salary double next season, but at 36 years old he'll likely have to settle for another one-year deal.
On the other hand, Gallardo is still just 29 years old and could be looking at something in the neighborhood of the four-year, $55 million deal that Ervin Santana signed with the Minnesota Twins last offseason.
A 4.00 FIP, 1.416 WHIP and a career-low 5.9 K/9 strikeout rate don't paint the prettiest picture of future value for Gallardo, but at that price he would still be worth re-signing and he'd easily be one of the best No. 4 or No. 5 starters in baseball.
Toronto Blue Jays: Re-Signing SP David Price
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Yes, David Price struggled this postseason as he has throughout his career.
No, that's not going to drive his price down this offseason.
Expect the bidding to start somewhere around the seven-year, $210 million deal signed by Max Scherzer last offseason, as the left-hander is undoubtedly one of the game's legitimate aces.
He was terrific for the Toronto Blue Jays during the regular season, going 9-1 with a 2.30 ERA in 11 starts on his way to an AL-best 2.45 ERA on the year.
At 30 years old he is the same age that Scherzer was when he hit the open market last winter, and two years younger than the other elite arm on the market in Zack Greinke, so that $200 million price tag seems like a safe bet.
For the Blue Jays, it would take breaking their organizational rule of not signing players beyond five years, but with a new front office team in place that may be out the window anyway.
Price seems to be open to the idea of returning, as he told reporters that he would "absolutely" consider returning to Toronto next season, according to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.
A healthy season from Marcus Stroman will give the Blue Jays one front-line arm regardless, but getting Price back in the mix would again make them AL East favorites and a legitimate title contender.
Washington Nationals: Signing CF Gerardo Parra
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Center fielder Denard Span is one of a handful of key players set to reach free agency for the Washington Nationals, and he may very well be the most important as far as finding a replacement is concerned.
His importance to the Nationals was clear last season when the team went 36-25 (.590) with him in the lineup compared to 47-54 (.465) without him, and the team employed a revolving door of different leadoff hitters in his absence.
Michael Taylor, Anthony Rendon, Yunel Escobar and Jayson Werth all saw extended time in the top spot in the order, and finding a suitable leadoff hitter remains a glaring area of need heading into the offseason.
Taylor has long been viewed as the logical replacement for Span as the everyday center fielder, and he showed a good mix of power and speed during his time in the minors.
However, he hit just .229/.282/.358 in 472 at-bats as a rookie, and until he cuts down on his strikeouts (30.9 percent) and takes more walks (6.8 percent), he really doesn't profile as a leadoff hitter.
Re-signing Span is certainly an option for the Nationals, but signing Gerardo Parra might make more sense.
Parra is capable of playing all three outfield spots and he's succeeded in a fourth outfielder role before, so signing him would not necessarily mean blocking the up-and-coming Taylor.
Instead, it would simply be a matter of throwing another talented player into the outfield mix and letting the at-bats work themselves out.
That was the plan when the team signed Nate McLouth a couple years back, and while that didn't work out as hoped, Parra could be the answer.
All standard stats and WAR totals courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, while defensive metrics like DRS and UZR/150 come via FanGraphs.
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