Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Bettors should be wary of Miami when it's favored considering the Dolphins are just 1-6 against the spread the last seven times they've been asked to give points. Miami will go off as a favorite Sunday when it hosts the Houston Texans.

Point spread: The Dolphins opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 43 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.8-21.6 Dolphins

Why the Texans can cover the spread

Houston just snapped a two-game losing streak last week with a 31-20 victory at Jacksonville, taking that game outright as a three-point underdog. The Texans trailed the Jaguars through three quarters 14-10, but they scored three touchdowns in a five-minute span to begin the fourth, the last on an Andre Hal pick-six, to take control.

Quarterback Brian Hoyer reasserted his claim on the starting job, hitting on 24 of 36 throws for 293 yards and three touchdowns without an interception, while wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins continued his fast start, catching 10 balls for 148 yards and two scores. The Houston defense chipped in by picking off Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles three times.

If Hoyer can progress and perhaps get some help from the running game, the Texans could contend in the mediocre AFC South.

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Miami just snapped a three-game losing streak last week with a 38-10 romp at Tennessee, taking that game outright as a three-point underdog. The Dolphins began their first game after the firing of head coach Joe Philbin by driving 80 yards for a touchdown and pulled away from there.

On the day, Miami outgained the Titans by 135 yards, outrushing them 180-63 as running back Lamar Miller came up with his first 100-yard effort of the season. The Dolphins forced four Tennessee turnovers, turning one into a pick-six that put the Dolphins up 24-3 late in the third quarter.

Interim coach Dan Campbell inherited a team that was expected to contend for a playoff spot this season. Perhaps the change at the top will provide the jump-start this team needs.

Smart pick

These two teams are basically in the same boat: underperformers coming off much-needed victories. And they're very similar; both have trouble running the ball, and both are getting skittish play at quarterback. Ultimately, for a game that could go either way, the smart choice in a spot like this is with the underdog, plus the points.

Betting trends

The Texans are 7-0 straight up in their last seven games against the Dolphins.

The Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as favorites.

The Texans are 3-17 SU in their last 20 games as underdogs.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.