Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Dallas Cowboys (2-3) are expected to give Matt Cassel his first start at quarterback for the team when they visit Eli Manning and the New York Giants (3-3) in a key NFC East matchup on Sunday. The Cowboys are coming off their bye week and have lost three straight games straight up and against the spread with Brandon Weeden under center, who replaced the injured Tony Romo.

Point spread: The Giants opened as five-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (view line updates and matchup report here).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.1-18.7 Giants

Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

Dallas took the first meeting with New York in the season opener thanks to Romo’s heroics, as he led the team down the field and threw the game-winning touchdown pass to tight end Jason Witten with seven seconds remaining for a 27-26 victory. While Romo will surely be missed here, a change in quarterbacks from Weeden to Cassel is the right move and should give the offense some new life.

The Cowboys also were able to get healthy during their bye week and work some new players into key roles. There has been speculation that wide receiver Dez Bryant might try to return from a foot injury, giving the Giants something to think about leading up to the game. But running back Christine Michael is expected to get some work for the first time this season too, which will make it tough for New York to prepare for players it doesn’t know.

Why the Giants can cover the spread

The Giants were awful in their 27-7 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles Monday night, but they are still tied for first place in the NFC East and had won three in a row prior to that. Turnovers were costly for New York against the Eagles, with quarterback Eli Manning throwing two interceptions, including one returned for a score.

But the Giants can correct those things, especially with a veteran head coach in Tom Coughlin who has won two Super Bowls with Manning. They will work through those mistakes in practice during the week and play much better against a Dallas team with Romo and Bryant that they nearly beat in Week 1.

Smart pick

The Giants should probably be bigger favorites in this spot and would have been had they not laid an egg on national television in their last game. Instead, oddsmakers are giving bettors a gift, considering the Cowboys are working in new players who have not yet played with them in Cassel and Michael. New York will take advantage of this situation and avenge the loss in the first meeting by winning and covering the spread.

Betting trends

The Cowboys are 2-9 straight up and 1-9-1 against the spread in their last 11 games against the Giants in October.

The Cowboys are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games on the road in October.

The Giants are 7-1 straight up in their last eight games at home in October.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.