NFL Picks Week 7: Advice for Current Vegas Odds, Spreads and Over/Under Lines

We won't go so far as to tell you that Las Vegas is providing a gift in Week 7, but it appears the oddsmakers are going overboard when it comes to showing respect for the New England Patriots.

Head coach Bill Belichick's undefeated team is coming off an impressive 34-27 Sunday night win over the Indianapolis Colts. The Patriots did an excellent job of shutting down the Indianapolis offense in the second half until a late fourth-quarter score allowed the Colts to get within the final seven-point margin.

The Patriots have rolled through their first five opponents this season, and now they'll return home to take on the AFC East rival New York Jets.

These are not the same one-step-forward, two-step-backward Jets that we saw under former head coach Rex Ryan. Instead, first-year head coach Todd Bowles has the Jets playing a relentless style of football that should match up well against Belichick's team.

The Jets have gotten off to a 4-1 start, and they are just a game behind the Patriots. The Jets have played the Patriots as competitively as any other opponent has over the years, and now they have upgraded their offense significantly.

Nevertheless, linemakers have installed the Patriots as 10-point favorites, according to Odds Shark. There's nothing wrong with respecting the defending Super Bowl champions, but it appears the Jets are being disrespected.

The Patriots have injury issues at the offensive tackle position, and the Jets have the firepower on the defensive line to take advantage and harass quarterback Tom Brady. The Jets also have Darrelle Revis in the secondary, and the Patriots know how important that is because he helped them win the Super Bowl last year.

Revis is capable of jumping on Julian Edelman or Danny Amendola and shutting either wide receiver down.

But the biggest reason why the Jets should be able to play with the Patriots for 60 minutes is the play of the improved offense. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is proving to be a fine leader who can avoid key mistakes, while wideout Brandon Marshall knows how to use his size, strength and speed to catch the ball downfield with regularity.

Running back Chris Ivory has run like a beast this season with 460 rushing yards on 5.5 yards per carry. The Patriots are going to be hard-pressed to slow him down.

We don't know if the Jets can steal a win in Foxborough, Massachusetts, but they should be able to keep it close throughout the contest and stay within 10 points.

Game	Line	Over/Under	Selection
Seattle at San Francisco	Seattle (-5.5)	41.5	San Francisco; Over
Buffalo at Jacksonville	Buffalo (-4)	42	Buffalo; Over
Minnesota at Detroit	Minnesota (-2.5)	44.5	Minnesota; Under
New Orleans at Indianapolis	Indianapolis (-5)	52	New Orleans; Over
Pittsburgh at Kansas City	No Line	-	Kansas City
Houston at Miami	Miami (-4.5)	43	Miami; Over
NY Jets at New England	New England (-10)	48	New York; Under
Cleveland at St. Louis	St. Louis (-4.5)	41.5	Cleveland; Over
Atlanta at Tennessee	Atlanta (-4)	48	Atlanta; Under
Tampa Bay at Washington	Washington (-3.5)	43.5	Tampa Bay; Over
Oakland at San Diego	San Diego (-4)	47	Oakland; Under
Dallas at NY Giants	No Line	-	New York
Philadelphia at Carolina	No Line	-	Carolina
Baltimore at Arizona	Arizona (-7.5)	48	Arizona; Over

Look for Bills to continue familiar pattern

The Buffalo Bills have hopes of contending for a playoff spot this year. They have shown flashes of talent on both sides of the ball, but they have yet to show consistency.

Every time they have won a game this season, they have followed it up with a losing performance. They have been especially inconsistent at home, where the Bills have dropped three games in a row since winning their season opener.

Luckily for Ryan, who moved from his position with the Jets to the head coaching slot with the Bills, his team will not be at home this week.

If the Bills continue their current pattern, they will find a way to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. They have gone down a win-loss-win-loss-win-loss path through the first six weeks of the season.

Now they'll head to London to take on head coach Gus Bradley's Jaguars, who have shown some improvement on offense this season but are struggling to play complete games. The Jaguars are 1-5, and they are unlikely to stop a Bills offense that has the versatile LeSean McCoy back in the fold.

McCoy carried 17 times for 90 yards and a touchdown against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 6, and while he caught just two passes, he is a dangerous receiver.

Whether EJ Manuel or Tyrod Taylor is under center, look for McCoy to play a bigger role in the offense this week.

While wideout Sammy Watkins is doubtful after suffering an ankle injury, per CBS Sports, the Bills have tight end Charles Clay and wideout Robert Woods to pick up the slack. The Bills have their issues, but they are more competent than the Jaguars and will cover the four-point spread.

John Bazemore/Associated Press

Falcons get back on winning track at Tennessee

The Atlanta Falcons are an improved team this year under rookie head coach Dan Quinn.

They rolled to wins in their first five games of the season before dropping their Week 6 Thursday night game on the road against the New Orleans Saints.

That loss was understandable. Nobody expected the Falcons to go undefeated, and they were facing a desperate Saints team that needed to find a way to win.

But it has to stop at one loss unless the Falcons want to undo all of the good from their sharp start. Fortunately, quarterback Matt Ryan and the Atlanta offense should have their way with the Tennessee Titans defense.

Statistically, the Titans get the job done against the pass, as they are giving up 184 yards per game through the air, which ranks first in the league.

However, Tennessee ranks 28th in rushing yards allowed, which means Devonta Freeman should be able to run wild. Once that happens, Tennessee is not going to stop the combination of Ryan and Julio Jones, no matter what the rankings say.

While Atlanta is laying four points in the matchup, the Falcons should put the game away by the third quarter, as the speedy Atlanta defense won't let rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota get started.