Full 2015-2016 MLB Offseason Preview, Predictions 2 Weeks Out
The end is near. Two short weeks from now, the World Series will be over, and Major League Baseball will hunker down for the winter.
But hey, it's not as bad as it sounds. There may not be any actual baseball, but the offseason features more than enough of the next best thing: baseball news! There will be all sorts of wheeling and dealing, and many players changing addresses. It'll be fun. I promise.
So, we might as well get a head start on getting ready.
Ahead of you is a preview of what's to come this offseason. Like we did last year, we'll look at the under-the-radar, second-tier and top-tier starting pitchers, relief pitchers and position players in a class of free agents that looks pretty deep. Also, we'll touch on some top trade candidates to keep an eye on. In the end, we'll wrap things up by predicting one big move and which teams are going to be the most active.
Step into the box whenever you're ready.
Under-the-Radar Free Agents: Starting Pitchers
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Brett Anderson
For the first time since 2009, Anderson was able to stay healthy. The result was a 3.69 ERA across 180.1 innings in 2015, which came mainly courtesy of the highest ground-ball rate in all the land.
Anderson's injury track record makes it hard to fully count on a repeat season. But he's definitely re-established himself as a solid mid-rotation type who should be available at an affordable rate.
Potential Suitors: Los Angeles Dodgers, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs
Bartolo Colon
Colon hasn't been particularly good in two seasons in Queens, posting a 4.13 ERA and surrendering a whopping 47 home runs. He's also 42, so whether he even wants to keep pitching is a good question.
But if he wants to, he'll get looks as an affordable innings-eater. Colon has logged at least 190 innings in each of the last three years, and he (surprisingly) has the durability and efficient style to keep it up.
Potential Suitors: New York Mets, Arizona Diamondbacks, Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds, Miami Marlins, Kansas City Royals, Baltimore Orioles
Marco Estrada
Following a down 2014 season, Estrada bounced back with a 3.13 ERA in 181 innings in 2015. In so doing, he showed he can still be the quietly solid mid-rotation type that he was in 2012 and 2013.
One word of caution, though: Estrada's extreme fly-ball style didn't hurt him at Rogers Centre, but that should be taken with a grain of salt. Only teams with big yards should approach him with offers.
Potential Suitors: Toronto Blue Jays, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, Miami Marlins, San Diego Padres
Doug Fister
Fister had a rough year in 2015, posting a 4.19 ERA and eventually losing his spot in the Washington Nationals rotation. After a season like that, odds are he's only in the market for a one-year deal.
But if so, he's worth a flier. Though he wasn't always healthy, he was one of the game's most effective pitchers in posting a 3.11 ERA between 2011 and 2014. If he can put his ground-ball style in front of the right infield defense, he may be that guy again.
Potential Suitors: Pittsburgh Pirates, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers, St. Louis Cardinals, Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs
J.A. Happ
Happ was little more than an innings-eater coming into 2015, but he showed he could be much more after arriving in Pittsburgh at the trade deadline. He had a 1.85 ERA in 11 starts as a Pirate, where, as Brooks Baseball can show, his confidence in his fastball skyrocketed.
Reading too much into that 1.85 ERA isn't a good idea, but Happ now looks like more than just a solid No. 5 starter who can be had for dirt cheap.
Potential Suitors: Pittsburgh Pirates, Arizona Diamondbacks, Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds, Miami Marlins, Kansas City Royals
Under-the-Radar Free Agents: Relief Pitchers
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Antonio Bastardo
Living with Bastardo means living with a decent number of walks, but he generally does more good than harm with his solid fastball-slider combination. For example, he's posted an ERA under 3.00 in three of five seasons since 2011.
At the very least, he's a good fit for a bullpen that needs a lefty killer. He's held left-handed batters to just a .595 OPS throughout his career.
Potential Suitors: San Diego Padres, Detroit Tigers, Arizona Diamondbacks, Texas Rangers, Houston Astros
Jerry Blevins
Speaking of lefty killers, Blevins might be the market's best option in that department. He's held lefties to just a .579 OPS in his career and has been especially deadly against them since the start of 2014.
The downside, of course, is that Blevins made only seven appearances in 2015 thanks to an injury. But as far as teams are concerned, that should only make him more affordable.
Potential Suitors: San Diego Padres, Detroit Tigers, Arizona Diamondbacks, Texas Rangers
Trevor Cahill
Cahill was an afterthought as recently as a couple weeks ago, but he's been truly reborn as a reliever. He posted a 2.12 ERA and struck out over 11 batters per nine innings down the stretch after the Cubs picked him up, and he also had some bright moments in the postseason.
All this is believable enough. Cahill's velocity increased in his relief role, and he told the Chicago Sun-Times this has allowed him to rediscover his changeup. He's worth a look as an affordable setup man, something quite a few teams could use.
Potential Suitors: Oakland Athletics, Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Dodgers
Under-the-Radar Free Agents: Position Players
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Marlon Byrd
Byrd is too aggressive a swinger to get on base at a consistent rate, and his 2015 splits make the case that he might be best used in a platoon role.
But in hitting over 20 dingers for a third year in a row in 2015, Byrd showed he's not running out of power. That's a valuable commodity, and it's enough for teams in need of good pop to come calling with one-year offers.
Potential Suitors: Atlanta Braves, Oakland Athletics, Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays, New York Mets
Daniel Murphy
Murphy is admittedly not so under the radar at present, as seemingly every ball off his bat this postseason has been crushed. At least in Queens, he's everyone's favorite player.
Murphy obviously isn't this good, but he's definitely a solid player. His line-drive stroke and ability to make contact have made him an above-average hitter (.755 OPS) throughout his career, and his ability to play second, third and short makes him a fit for a lot of teams.
Potential Suitors: New York Mets, Chicago White Sox, Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Angels, Baltimore Orioles, Oakland Athletics, Los Angeles Dodgers
Gerardo Parra
Parra finished 2015 on a down note after he was traded, hitting just .237 with a .625 OPS with the Orioles. But before that, he was hitting .328 and OPS'ing .886.
Parra isn't actually that good, mind you, but he is a guy with solid power and speed who can handle himself in a platoon role against right-handers. And though he's not the Gold Glover he once was, the defensive metrics probably overstate his decline as a capable outfielder.
Potential Suitors: Baltimore Orioles, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds, Minnesota Twins, San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Angels
Denard Span
Injuries wrecked Span's 2015 season, limiting him to just 61 games. As such, a guy who was once in line for a multiyear deal may only be in line for a one-year bounce-back deal this winter.
But either way, he's worth taking a flier on. In hitting over .300 with a solid OBP over the last two years, Span has shown he can be an outstanding top-of-the-order type when healthy.
Potential Suitors: Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners, Oakland Athletics, San Francisco Giants, Detroit Tigers, Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs
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Second-Level Free Agents: Starting Pitchers
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Mark Buehrle
Though Buehrle fell short of his customary 200 innings in 2015, it was only by four outs. And in a nice bit of symmetry, he posted a 3.81 ERA that's exactly the same as his career 3.81 ERA. In short, he's still got it.
The question now is whether he wants to do it again, as Buehrle's other option is to retire. And even if he does come back for another season, here's thinking he'll be picky about his suitors.
Potential Suitors: Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago White Sox
Wei-Yin Chen
Chen gets so little exposure outside of Baltimore that he might as well be invisible. But he's been a solid pitcher over the last two years, posting a 3.44 ERA over 377 innings.
Chen's trick is to mercilessly pound the strike zone, making him one of the more efficient mid-rotation types you're going to find anywhere. For a team in need of an affordable lefty starter, he's a good target.
Potential Suitors: Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Kansas City Royals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Seattle Mariners
Yovani Gallardo
Gallardo had a rough year in 2013, but he's rebounded to post a 3.46 ERA across 376.2 innings over the last two seasons. He's also younger than you might think, as he has yet to hit age 30.
The catch with Gallardo is that he now uses a smoke-and-mirrors attack that's contingent on getting hitters to chase after his pitches. He's best looked at as an affordable No. 4-type starter.
Potential Suitors: Texas Rangers, Chicago Cubs, Washington Nationals, Chicago White Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates, Los Angeles Dodgers
Hisashi Iwakuma
Iwakuma was one of the best pitchers in baseball when he chased the AL Cy Young with a 2.66 ERA in 2013. But in two seasons since, he's been hit with some injuries and only managed a 3.53 ERA.
All the same, Iwakuma still has good stuff and really good control, and he showed in August that it can make him literally unhittable on a good day. Whether he wants to leave Seattle might be a good question, but he should find plenty of interest elsewhere if he's open to leaving.
Potential Suitors: Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, Miami Marlins, Kansas City Royals
Scott Kazmir
Kazmir struggled after Oakland traded him to Houston at the deadline, posting just a 4.17 ERA in 13 starts. But he's generally been good in posting a 3.33 ERA since the start of 2014, mainly because he's reinvented himself as more of a control artist who keeps the ball down.
The reality that Kazmir is still just 31 should also help his cause. He's not in line for a huge deal by any stretch, but he should be able to get a three- or four-year deal from a team in need of a solid No. 3.
Potential Suitors: Houston Astros, Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Arizona Diamondbacks, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers
John Lackey
Lackey just enjoyed what might have been the best season of his career, posting a 2.77 ERA in 218 innings. Beyond maintaining his velocity well for a nearly 37-year-old, putting more trust in his two-seamer really paid off.
As for Lackey's market, that part is harder to figure. He's not in line for a long-term deal and seems like a good bet to go only where he can win. His list of possible landing spots may be short.
Potential Suitors: St. Louis Cardinals, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers, Houston Astros
Mike Leake
Leake had some issues in San Francisco after a July trade, but he still managed another very Leake-like season: a 3.70 ERA over 192.0 innings, with lots and lots of ground balls.
Between this and the fact Leake is still only 27, he's an attractive mid-rotation option. But here's thinking most of the interest will come from teams with solid infield defenses to put behind Leake.
Potential Suitors: San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox
Jeff Samardzija
Samardzija struggled badly in 2015, posting a 4.96 ERA amid a declining strikeout rate and ground-ball rate. To say the least, he looked very, very human.
And yet, he doesn't look like a lost cause. Samardzija doesn't have as many miles on his arm as most 30-year-old pitchers, and he was still throwing hard in 2015 despite what his numbers would lead one to believe. He's an ideal candidate for a one-year bounce-back contract somewhere.
Potential Suitors: Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Arizona Diamondbacks, Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox
Second-Level Free Agents: Relief Pitchers
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Shawn Kelley
Kelley turned into a solid reliever in posting a 2.45 ERA in 51.1 innings in 2015. For him, the trick was to establish much more consistency within the strike zone, allowing him to finally pair command with his solid fastball/slider combination.
At the least, Kelley should attract interest from teams in need of a late-inning reliever who can miss bats. But it also wouldn't be surprising if some teams view him as a closer candidate.
Potential Suitors: San Diego Padres, Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics, Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners, Minnesota Twins
Mark Lowe
Lowe looked like he was on his way out of baseball for a while there, but he turned things around in posting a 1.96 ERA in 55.0 innings in 2015. That's what you can do when you magically regain three miles per hour on your heater.
Granted, a velocity spike like that at age 32 is the kind that may not last. Nonetheless, Lowe should attract interest from the usual suspects in need of relief help.
Potential Suitors: Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics, Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners, Minnesota Twins, San Diego Padres
Ryan Madson
Madson missed three years due to an abnormally difficult recovery from Tommy John surgery, but he sure returned with a vengeance in 2015. With mid-90s velocity and control reminiscent of his vintage self, he impressed with a 2.13 ERA in 63.1 innings.
One has doubts as to whether teams will be comfortable going beyond a one-year offer to sign Madson, but he should find plenty of interest in his services regardless.
Potential Suitors: Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics, Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners, Minnesota Twins, San Diego Padres
Tony Sipp
Don't read too much into Sipp's 1.99 ERA from 2015, as that number overstates his effectiveness. Even still, we are talking about a lefty with a solid fastball/slider combination who has decent command and the ability to miss bats.
To boot, Sipp has been about equally effective against lefties and righties throughout his career. He's not a true LOOGY and should therefore have wider appeal.
Potential Suitors: Houston Astros, San Diego Padres, Detroit Tigers, Arizona Diamondbacks, Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox, Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Dodgers
Second-Level Free Agents: Position Players
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Ian Desmond
Desmond had a lousy walk year, as he at times struggled mightily on defense and ultimately finished with a sub-.300 OBP. Where he once looked like a lock for a long-term deal, now it's likely he'll settle for a one-year bounce-back contract.
However, he's not a lost cause. Desmond showed with 19 homers and 13 steals that he still has power and speed, and it's worth something that his defense was better at the end of the year than it was at the beginning. If all he wants is a one-year deal so he can rebuild his value, he should find plenty of offers.
Potential Suitors: Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies, Tampa Bay Rays, New York Mets
Dexter Fowler
Following a couple of injury-marred seasons in 2013 and 2014, Fowler stayed healthy and finished 2015 with a .346 OBP, 17 home runs and 20 stolen bases.
The big catch with Fowler is that he's a lousy defensive center fielder, so he might actually be best used in a corner outfield spot. But even with that being the case, his ability to get on base with good power and speed on the side should land him a multiyear deal somewhere.
Potential Suitors: Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers, Milwaukee Brewers
Howie Kendrick
Kendrick didn't have his best season in 2015. Beyond being limited to just 117 games, the defensive metrics say he showed his 32 years of age on defense with a decidedly subpar performance.
The good news is that Kendrick showed he still has a good bat, as his average once again landed in the .290 range while he also hit for some power. He's one of the better hitters second base has to offer, so it'll be surprising if he doesn't find a solid multiyear deal.
Potential Suitors: Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees, Arizona Diamondbacks, Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Angels
Colby Rasmus
Rasmus looked unstoppable in Houston's brief playoff run, hitting .412 with four home runs in six games. But here's a reminder that he's not actually that good, as he generally hits in the low .200s with an OBP in the low .300s.
However, you can at least count on good power out of Rasmus, especially if he's used strictly in a platoon role against right-handers. Between that, his versatile outfield defense and the reality that he's still only 29, he should be able to find a multiyear deal somewhere.
Potential Suitors: Houston Astros, San Francisco Giants, Oakland Athletics, Cleveland Indians, Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Angels
Matt Wieters
Tommy John surgery has bumped Wieters from the ranks of baseball's elite catchers, as he missed most of 2014 and failed to make a strong comeback in 2015. As such, he's likely going to be on the lookout for just a one-year contract this winter.
Still, he should find one. Wieters should at least have power to offer, and he should also regain his status as a quality defender if his old throwing strength makes a comeback.
Potential Suitors: Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Atlanta Braves, Texas Rangers
Ben Zobrist
If you buy what WAR is selling, then you'll buy the notion that Zobrist has been one of the league's five best position players since 2009. When you combine a good OBP talent with power, speed and a versatile glove, that's what you get.
And even at 34, Zobrist is still ticking. His speed has diminished, but he finished 2015 with a .359 OBP and 13 home runs while splitting time in left field and at second base. He's not in line for too big of a deal, but he's a fit for virtually any team.
Potential Suitors: Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Washington Nationals
Top-Tier Free Agents: Starting Pitchers
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Johnny Cueto
Cueto is less "top-tier" now than he was before the Cincinnati Reds traded him to Kansas City. He posted a 4.76 ERA down the stretch while fighting inconsistent stuff and command, and it's been the same story in two of his three playoff starts.
And yet, this is still a guy with a 2.71 ERA since 2011. And thanks to the trade, he won't be tied to draft-pick compensation this winter. His market has taken a hit, but nine figures is still possible.
Potential Suitors: Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels, Chicago Cubs
Zack Greinke
Greinke's decision to opt out of the final three years of his contract with the Dodgers came as no surprise. You would too if you compiled a 2.30 ERA in three years, culminating in a sterling 1.66 ERA in 2015.
Greinke's main limitation on the open market will be his age. At 32, he's a little older than execs would prefer. But that shouldn't stop him from doing very well. His approach now has more to do with masterful command and sequencing than it does with pure stuff. That and his clean mechanics should allow him to field five-year offers worth upward of $100 million.
Potential Suitors: Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels, Chicago Cubs
David Price
Though Price's postseason track record won't help his cause in free agency, everything else points to him finding a huge deal on the open market. He's a former Cy Young winner coming off a 2.45 ERA in 2015, and he's hanging on to his mid-90s velocity and plus-plus command.
Add in the fact that Price was also barred from being tied to draft-pick compensation when he was traded, and you have all the ingredients for a big-money pitcher. It won't be surprising if he gets as much as $200 million.
Potential Suitors: Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels, Chicago Cubs
Jordan Zimmermann
Following an excellent 2014 season, Zimmermann came back to earth in 2015. His ERA rose from 2.66 to 3.66, and his K/BB ratio normalized in a big way.
Still, Zimmermann remains an attractive option. He's only 29, and he's only been a 200-inning guy for four years now. It's a solid bet he'll be able to retain his mid-90s heat and outstanding command for a while longer, making him a real top-of-the-rotation target.
Potential Suitors: Washington Nationals, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels, Chicago Cubs
Top-Tier Free Agents: Relief Pitchers
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Tyler Clippard
It's arguable that Clippard shouldn't be considered a "top-tier" reliever, but the relative lack of high-end talent about to hit the open market allows him to qualify. He is, after all, a veteran late-inning reliever with a 2.68 ERA since 2009.
Clippard may get looks as a closer, but there will be more interest in him as a setup man. Expect him to land a two- or three-year deal from a team that's badly in need of a quality eighth-inning reliever.
Potential Suitors: New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners, Minnesota Twins, San Diego Padres
Darren O'Day
In a market where there are no, say, Andrew Millers or David Robertsons, O'Day might be the best option for teams in need of relief help. He doesn't throw hard, but he's put up sub-2.00 ERAs two years in a row through the application of outstanding command and sequencing.
Given that O'Day is 33, it's doubtful that he's going to find anything like a "proven closer" contract. But a two- or three-year deal with an option should be doable.
Potential Suitors: Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners
Joakim Soria
Soria is the closest thing this winter's market has to a "proven closer." He was one of the best in the business between 2008 and 2011, and he also saved 24 games with a 2.53 ERA in 2015.
However, Soria probably isn't a lock to end up with the biggest contract of any reliever, as it's no real secret that his most overpowering days are behind him. Like Clippard and O'Day, he's likely only in line for a two- or three-year deal.
Potential Suitors: Pittsburgh Pirates, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners, Minnesota Twins, San Diego Padres
Top-Tier Free Agents: Position Players
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Yoenis Cespedes
Cespedes picked a heck of a time to have the best season of his career, as his walk year saw him hit 35 bombs with an .870 OPS while playing superb defense in the outfield.
Whether Cespedes can be that good again is doubtful, but his market should be fine regardless. There's no question he has an insane amount of talent, and he should have a few more prime seasons left. Plus, he's another guy who won't be tied to draft-pick compensation. A $100 million deal should be in reach.
Potential Suitors: New York Mets, Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers, Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, Toronto Blue Jays
Chris Davis
Following his lost season in 2014, Davis came back in 2015 and looked a lot like the otherworldly slugger that he was in 2013. He OPS'd .923 and led MLB with 47 home runs.
That makes it two years out of three that Davis has led baseball in home runs, and the market should reward him handsomely for that. The 29-year-old should be able to find a long-term contract worth upward of $100 million.
Potential Suitors: Baltimore Orioles, San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners
Alex Gordon
This is assuming Gordon declines his $12.5 million player option for 2016 like, as Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported in August, "everyone around the [Royals]" expects him to do. And rightfully so, as this is Gordon's chance to cash in on being one of the league's five best outfielders in recent years.
One catch is that Gordon will soon be 32, with another being that he showed his mortality this year by missing two months with a leg injury. Even still, his mix of above-average offense and elite left field defense should net him a deal that should touch and might even exceed $100 million.
Potential Suitors: Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels, Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, Cleveland Indians, New York Mets, Detroit Tigers
Jason Heyward
It was largely business as usual for Heyward in 2015. He continued to fall well short of his 2012 power peak by hitting only 13 homers, but he still OPS'd .797 while mixing in outstanding baserunning and defense. These are the skills that make him one of the league's elite outfielders.
Oh, and he also just turned 26 years old. Though it's likely to have an opt-out in the middle of it, do not be surprised when Heyward lands a long-term deal worth around $200 million. Guys with his youth and talent just don't hit the free-agent market all that often.
Potential Suitors: St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners
Justin Upton
Speaking of young, talented outfielders, Upton fits in that category too. He's only 28, and he should also be in line for a long-term contract.
However, one is curious to see how much money Upton fetches. He once again put up good numbers in 2015, OPS'ing .790 with 26 homers and 19 steals, but the only time he played like a true superstar was back in 2011. It won't be surprising if he doesn't do as well as Cespedes, Gordon or Heyward.
Potential Suitors: San Diego Padres, New York Mets, Los Angeles Angels, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, Toronto Blue Jays
Top Trade Targets: Pitchers
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Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
All those Chapman trade rumors at the deadline didn't go anywhere, but you can expect them to start up again soon. According to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, the flame-throwing lefty "could very well be available" this winter.
That would make sense. The Reds seem to have finally accepted that they need to rebuild, and moving Chapman would fit with that idea. He's only one year away from free agency, and his 1.90 ERA and absurd 16.1 K/9 since 2012 highlight just how good a closer he is.
What would also work in Cincinnati's favor is the reality that, as we've reviewed, there aren't any dominant closer types on the open market this winter. All the stars are aligning for them to trade Chapman for a haul of prospects.
Craig Kimbrel, San Diego Padres
Just like Chapman, all the Kimbrel trade rumors at the deadline ended up going nowhere. And moving forward into the winter, it's no sure thing they'll start up again.
But as Jon Heyman wrote at CBS Sports, there would be a "huge market" for Kimbrel if the Padres put him back out there. Despite his just OK (for him) 2.58 ERA in 2015, he still has some of the nastiest stuff around. And where Chapman only has one year of club control left, Kimbrel has at least two.
He could thus draw an even larger crowd than Chapman, as teams will want as much control as possible as long as the price is a basket of prospects.
Danny Salazar, Cleveland Indians
Also coming from Nick Cafardo is word that the Indians are determined to trade a pitcher for a hitter this winter. Their preferred option in the past has been to trade Salazar rather than Carlos Carrasco, and that should remain the case heading into the offseason.
Pitching-needy teams would probably prefer Carrasco, but Salazar is a fine consolation prize. He's only 25 and is under club control through 2020. He's also shown he can put his big arm to proper use, as he racked up a solid 3.45 ERA in 2015 while continuing to strike out over a quarter of the batters he faced.
A pitcher like that is indeed worth an established big league hitter. If only teams had as many spare ones lying around as the Indians may be hoping...
Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
Wait, what?
Apparently, yeah. Also coming from Nick Cafardo is word that there's "a lot of buzz" the Nationals could make Strasburg available this winter. It could be they've grown tired of their former No. 1 overall pick.
Or, it could be they simply think trading him is the best way to flesh out a roster that badly needs it. Strasburg only has one year of club control left, but that and the insane amount of promise inspired by his stuff and command could net the Nationals a couple of major leaguers or a small pile of MLB-ready youngsters.
Still, I'd take this with a grain of salt. This is a "believe it when you see it" rumor.
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
If the idea above makes you say "maybe," this one makes you say "definitely."
Storen was having his second straight terrific season in 2015, carrying a sub-2.00 ERA into August. But Washington's trade for Jonathan Papelbon sucked the life out of him, resulting in a 9.22 ERA in his final 15 games. It also all but guaranteed a trade request from Storen, one that Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post says will "certainly" be honored this winter.
If so, there will be interest. Because he also has only one year of club control left, Storen will stand out as a more affordable backup option to Chapman.
Top Trade Targets: Position Players
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Todd Frazier, Cincinnati Reds
It seemed like everyone and their uncle wanted the Reds to trade Frazier at the deadline. They, of course, didn't do that. But as Charlie Wilmoth explained at MLB Trade Rumors, it makes a lot of sense for the Reds to take the idea seriously this winter:
"Frazier is signed to a reasonable deal through 2016, after which he'll be arbitration eligible for one more season. He'll be 30 in February, so it's unlikely he'll be part of the next good Reds team. Given his exceptional power (35 home runs in 2015) and strong defense, he should attract a ton of interest, even though he faded badly down the stretch.
"
Frazier might be Cincinnati's most valuable trade chip. Rather than hold on to him and face a monster payday in arbitration next winter, the Reds stand to gain a lot from shopping his 30-homer power and strong hot corner defense this winter.
Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies
Gonzalez is another guy who was a hot item in July, but even then ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick was floating the notion that the Rockies would be more willing to trade CarGo during the winter.
This is another idea that makes sense. Like the Reds, the Rockies are rebuilding. And whereas the $37 million remaining on Gonzalez's contract over the next two years once looked like a curse, now it looks like a reasonable rate after he hit 40 bombs with an .864 OPS in 2015.
That performance indeed allowed Gonzalez to rebuild his value, so the Rockies would be wise to strike while the ol' iron is hot.
Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
Here's a name you probably weren't expecting to see. And no, there's nothing concrete that says Longoria is headed to the block.
But this note from Nick Cafardo raises some good points:
"The 30-year-old Longoria's contract runs another seven years. His production has been so-so. While he's the face of the franchise, [the Rays'] status makes that meaningless. Over the last couple of years, baseball people have wondered whether the Rays would ever entertain dealing Longoria for a few pieces. With third basemen in demand, there would be a lot of play.
"
Longoria is indeed still a useful player, as he's OPS'd .744 with 43 home runs while playing quality defense the last two seasons. But that's not superstar production. And at his age, that's a pretty good indication the Rays should get out of the $110.5 million they still owe him while they still can.
Jonathan Lucroy, Milwaukee Brewers
There was some (not a lot) of buzz around Lucroy's name over the summer, but it's not a surprise the Brewers didn't trade him. As Jon Heyman wrote in May, then-general manager Doug Melvin pretty much labeled Lucroy untouchable.
However, Melvin isn't Milwaukee's GM anymore. And with the open market short on catching talent, Charlie Wilmoth also floated the possibility of new Brewers GM David Stearns shopping Lucroy.
What wouldn't work in Stearns' favor is the reality that Lucroy's value is down after a rough 2015 season. But because he's controlled for two more years at less than $10 million and is only a year removed from an MVP-caliber 2014 season, odds are he could still fetch a package that could help Milwaukee's rebuild.
Yasiel Puig, Los Angeles Dodgers
There was some Puig trade speculation last winter, but it could be a lot stronger this time around. Joel Sherman of the New York Post proposed that he could be finished in Los Angeles after what was essentially a lost season.
Given that Puig is still only 24 and signed for less than $25 million over the next three seasons, the Dodgers could miss out on a lot of production if they were to trade Puig. He's still at a stage of his career where he may yet develop into a superstar.
But the timing isn't wrong for a deal. Puig's value is down after 2015, but not down enough for interested parties to keep a wide berth. As far as other teams may be concerned, a change of scenery could be just what Puig needs to achieve his full potential.
Predicting One Big Move: Sonny Gray Gets Traded
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Word is the Oakland A's really, really don't want to trade Sonny Gray. Though there was some talk at the time of his possibly being dealt over the winter, A's GM Billy Beane texted the following to Jon Heyman in August: "Not happening. Not even slightly."
Reading between the lines, however...yup, Gray is a goner. Definitely.
OK, fine. I'm being a little cheeky. But only a little. After all, the last guy Beane was absolutely adamant about keeping was a fellow named Josh Donaldson. That smoke screen lasted for a few weeks before Beane sent him to the Toronto Blue Jays.
Of course, the big difference between Gray and Donaldson is that the latter was arbitration-eligible last offseason. Gray isn't arbitration-eligible until after 2016, so there's no hurry for Beane to move him.
At the same time, that just means Gray has more trade value on top of the value that already comes from his 2.88 career ERA and 25 years of age. And in a market where the high-end pitching is going to be really expensive, the A's stand to gain a lot from shopping Gray to teams that would rather have a young ace for a mountain of prospects than an old ace for a mountain of cash.
One team that could be willing to deal is the Boston Red Sox. They need an ace, but their recent history makes it clear they'd prefer not to spend big money on an older pitcher's decline years. With that being the case, the recent report from Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald that the Red Sox are prepared to blow up their farm system points to a possible blockbuster for an ace pitcher.
If not to Boston, Gray is bound to go somewhere. Count on it*.
*No, not really. But also, totally.
Clubs Primed for an Active Offseason
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Boston Red Sox
This will be the Red Sox's first offseason under new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and new GM Mike Hazen. They have much to fix, starting with the club's woeful starting pitching.
To that end, Dombrowski told Jason Mastrodonato he's well aware the club needs to find a "horse" to put atop the rotation. That could entail emptying the farm for somebody like Sonny Gray or spending the club's riches on one of the open market's top arms.
That's not all the Red Sox have to do this winter. They must also flesh out their bullpen and could also shop Pablo Sandoval and/or Hanley Ramirez, and maybe even one of their young outfielders.
Detroit Tigers
After winning four straight AL Central titles, the Tigers fell all the way to last place in 2015. Among the costs of that was the departure of the aforementioned Dombrowski.
In stepped Al Avila, who made it clear when he spoke to the media following the end of the season that there are moves in store. According to Chris Iott of MLive.com, Avila wants to find two starting pitchers and address the club's bullpen.
This doesn't sound like an easy task with all the big salary commitments clogging Detroit's payroll, but it must be kept in mind that money has yet to prove to be a real roadblock for Tigers owner Mike Ilitch. He wants to win, and he may be extra willing to pay to win after a season like the one the Tigers just had.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Speaking of teams that fell short of their goals in 2015, the Dodgers didn't win the World Series, so of course they're going to have a busy offseason.
They are indeed in a good position to do so. After the Dodgers dropped $300 million on payroll in 2015, Baseball-Reference.com has them projected for under $250 million in 2016. And that's with Zack Greinke's $26 million salary factored in, which we know is soon to be off the books.
Of course, re-signing Greinke or replacing him with an equally talented pitcher will be a must for the Dodgers this winter, as the top of their starting rotation was one of the only things that worked for them in 2015. But apart from that, they have major work to do on their bullpen and could also seek to make significant changes to their lineup.
Washington Nationals
According to ESPN.com's Jim Bowden, the Nationals are unsure what to do after they watched their 2015 season crash and burn. Do they aggressively go for broke in free agency, or do they commit to playing the long game by retooling?
Either way, there figures to be plenty of action in the nation's capital.
If the Nationals go for it, they'll have to either re-sign Jordan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond, Denard Span and Doug Fister or look to replace them with alternative options. That could mean a rush of activity on the open market and the trade market.
If the Nationals choose to retool instead, they could let those guys go and then make a series of trades. That could entail dealing guys who are set for free agency after 2016, including Stephen Strasburg, Wilson Ramos and, if anyone will have him, Jonathan Papelbon.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. Special thanks to MLB Trade Rumors for help with free agents and trade rumors.
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