Everything You Need to Know About the Denver Nuggets' 2015-16 NBA Season
The Denver Nuggets desperately need some direction.
After suffering through an abject disaster last year, a team that previously harbored hopes of a playoff berth was forced to completely switch things up. Brian Shaw was out as the head coach, replaced first by interim Melvin Hunt and then, this offseason, by Mike Malone, who will attempt to balance hard-nosed defense with running amid the city's altitude advantage. Ty Lawson, the former face of the franchise, was traded to the Houston Rockets after his off-court problems proved too much.
Now, the Nuggets are an incredibly young squad filled with one unproven player after another. The roster is overflowing with high-upside international prospects—Jusuf Nurkic, Joffrey Lauvergne, Nikola Jokic—and highlighted by the No. 7 pick in this year's draft. If Emmanuel Mudiay can immediately surge and make a strong push for Rookie of the Year, the ceiling of these Nuggets could improve substantially.
But even if he doesn't, this campaign is more about growth than wins. Discovering an identity and evaluating the many young contributors must be of paramount importance for Malone and this new coaching staff.
Key Additions/Subtractions
- Additions: Nick Johnson (trade), Nikola Jokic (draft rights), Mike Miller (free agency), Emmanuel Mudiay (draft)
- Subtractions: Ian Clark (free agency), Jamaal Franklin (free agency), Ty Lawson (trade)
Lawson is now lining up for the Houston Rockets, leading to a major shift at point guard. The speedy floor general had started at least 61 games during each of the last four seasons, making him one of the longest-tenured players in the Mile High City.
Unfortunately for this year's Nuggets, he didn't bring much back in return. Nick Johnson should receive some spot minutes on the wings, but the other players Lawson netted—Kostas Papanikolaou, Pablo Prigioni and Joey Dorsey—were all waived, while the lottery-protected first-round pick can be conveyed no sooner than 2016.
As such, the troops will only be bolstered through the addition of Mike Miller in free agency and two rookies. Mudiay is the big name, coming aboard with the No. 7 pick in this summer's selection process, but don't overlook the immediate contributions of Jokic, who was added early in the second round of the 2014 NBA draft.
Storylines to Watch
Though the young guns are obviously major factors in the success—or lack thereof—of the Nuggets during the 2015-16 go-round, we'll get to them in a bit. A couple of older gentlemen can still take center stage this season, and both should be positives for the Mile High City.
First is new head coach Mike Malone. Inexplicably fired last season by a troubled Sacramento Kings front office, the defensive-minded coach is at the helm of the Nuggets' attempt to change their culture. While negative vibes flowed through the organization until Shaw's contract was terminated midway through the last year, optimism now seems to abound.
Still, Malone will have his work cut out for him. This roster isn't built as a suffocating one, and the balancing act between crafting an impressive point-preventing unit and maintaining the ability to play uptempo offensive basketball will be tricky.
"When I got the job, I mentioned the team in 2008-09 that made the conference finals," Malone told Grantland's Zach Lowe back in July. "That was a team that was eighth in defensive efficiency. They defended and ran. That’s a model I’d like to use: defend, run, and use the altitude."
Helping him do so will be Danilo Gallinari, the veteran forward who now serves as the clear-cut No. 1 option, well removed from the ACL tear and subsequent setbacks that prevented him from realizing his full potential earlier in his career.
Gallinari averaged 18.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.3 steals and 0.5 blocks while shooting 44.3 percent from the field and 40.4 percent from behind the arc after last season's All-Star break. Then he followed that up this summer by torching the EuroBasket field, per RealGM, for 17.9 points per contest on a 56.9 percent clip from the field and 40 percent from downtown.
X-Factor: Emmanuel Mudiay
The Nuggets will go as Mudiay goes.
Even though the point guard is only a rookie, he plays like a veteran. Whether that's because of a preternatural level of basketball I.Q. or the experience he received running the show for the Guangdong Southern Tigers fresh out of high school, Mudiay has an attacking mentality and doesn't ever seem to be afraid of the competition or the moment.
Typical rookie struggles will inevitably plague him during his first attempt at navigating the NBA schedule, leading to turnover issues and some low shooting percentages. But that's also a natural byproduct of attempting to force the ball into tight spots and make things happen on an offense that desperately needs someone to initiate on just about every possession.
"In wake of the Ty Lawson deal, Mudiay has the starting job all to himself and the size, quickness, and skill to make the Nuggets exciting this year," Jeremy Woo wrote for Sports Illustrated while calling this 1-guard and the Philadelphia 76ers' Jahlil Okafor the early favorites for Rookie of the Year. "He’ll have the ball in his hands and be tasked with scoring and distributing to a decent group of role players."
Mudiay is only 19 years old, but this is already his team. Jameer Nelson and Erick Green will run the point for short stretches, but the starting gig is his to lose, and what he does with it will ultimately determine the course of the Nuggets' season.
Making the Leap: Jusuf Nurkic
Jusuf Nurkic emerged as a fan favorite in Denver last season—and for good reason. A precocious rookie, he inhaled rebounds and showed off a developing touch while also displaying an unwillingness to back down from any challenge. Talking trash to DeMarcus Cousins? Check. Doing the same to Kobe Bryant? No problem.
Now, the Bosnian Bear must become an even more reliable presence on the interior, making the most of his increasingly svelte frame and undeniable physical skills.
Above all else, he has the ability to become a legitimate stopper in the paint—something the Malone defense truly needs in order to thrive. During his rookie season, Denver allowed 104.6 points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor, as opposed to 109.8 when he was catching his breath on the pine, via Basketball-Reference.com. While the latter would've given the Nuggets the league's No. 28 defensive rating, the former would place them at No. 13.
As a sophomore, Nurkic needs to avoid fouling quite as frequently as he did one year prior. So long as he can stay on the court, good things should happen while Malone attempts to turn him into a poor man's version of DeMarcus Cousins.
Best-Case Scenario
There's an inordinate amount of upside on this roster, but the players who do have high-level experience don't figure to spend too much time on the court. Even if Nurkic, Jokic and Lauvergne thrive while Gary Harris makes massive strides as a sophomore and Mudiay runs away with Rookie of the Year honors, it's tough to see the Nuggets making a serious run at the playoffs.
And doing so shouldn't be the goal.
Instead, the best-case scenario has nothing to do with wins and simply involves Denver coming together while Malone calls the shots. If everyone makes strides in the right direction and the team sets itself up for even more success in 2016-17 by virtue of establishing a firm identity, this year will have served as a positive one.
Worst-Case Scenario
If there's a disconnect between Malone's defensive leanings and the young players' desires to play uptempo offense, dysfunction could loom for the second consecutive season. The Nuggets don't roster a combustible set of personalities anymore, but there's so much youth and inexperience in play here that it's incredibly important to get everyone moving down the right track.
As was the case with the best-case outcome, the worst-case scenario has nothing to do with wins. Even if the Nuggets move all the way to the bottom of the Western Conference standings but retain hope and develop a working system, it will be a praiseworthy outcome.
But if there's still no direction at the end of the 2015-16 season, that's highly problematic. Nothing could be worse for a rebuilding franchise.
Predictions
This season will inevitably be filled with trial and error as the new head coach attempts to figure out what he has to work with—and, for that matter, as the young players attempt to learn who they really are as basketball players.
Ups and downs should be expected, and the rough patches guaranteed to pop up shouldn't discourage the Nuggets in the slightest. After all, this campaign is about building an identity and letting Mudiay, Nurkic, Jokic and plenty of other high-upside contributors grow into legitimate NBA rotation players—or more.
There's enough talent here to win some games, sure. Especially if Gallinari can continue the torrid pace he was on during the stretch run of the 2014-15 season, the Nuggets have a few established pieces who should be able to keep them out of the Western Conference's true basement.
Still, expecting this team to sniff a .500 record or a playoff berth in the tougher half of the Association is setting it up for unavoidable failure. The goal this year can't be measured in wins or losses but rather progress and the formation of an identity the Nuggets can rely on for years to come.
- Final Record: 29-53
- Division Standings: Fourth in Northwest
- Playoffs: No
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