NFL Week 6 Picks: Final Predictions and Over-Under Odds Before Thursday Night

By Week 6 of last season, not a single NFL team had an undefeated record.

This year, there are still six perfect teams remaining, two of which—Carolina and Atlanta—are in the same division and finished the 2014 season with losing records.

All six are in action in Week 6, with Atlanta the first to defend its record. The Falcons are on the road against the New Orleans Saints on Thursday night. The rest of the best—which along with the two NFC South squads, includes New England, Cincinnati, Green Bay and Denver—are in play on Sunday.

Even if you're not looking for an undefeated squad to topple, there's something to love from every game in Week 6. At this point in the season, there are plenty of stats, trends and well-developed storylines to tease out when it comes to making picks for the week.

Here are the latest spreads, over-under odds and final-score predictions before Thursday.

Thursday, October 15
Sunday, October 18
Monday, October 19
Time (ET)	Away	Home	Over-Under	Prediction
8:25 p.m.	Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)	New Orleans Saints	51.5	ATL 31-17 NO
1 p.m.	Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)	Buffalo Bills	42	CIN 23-21 BUF
1 p.m.	Denver Broncos (-4)	Cleveland Browns	42.5	DEN 26-14 CLE
1 p.m.	Chicago Bears	Detroit Lions (-3)	43.5	DET 21-20 CHI
1 p.m.	Houston Texans (Even)	Jacksonville Jaguars (Even)	43	JAX 22-20 HOU
1 p.m.	Kansas City Chiefs	Minnesota Vikings (-4)	43	MIN 20-10 KC
1 p.m.	Washington Redskins	New York Jets (-7)	40.5	NYJ 19-7 WAS
1 p.m.	Arizona Cardinals (-3)	Pittsburgh Steelers	44.5	AZ 34-29 PIT
1 p.m.	Miami Dolphins	Tennessee Titans (-1)	43.5	MIA 21-19 TEN
4:05 p.m.	Carolina Panthers	Seattle Seahawks (-8)	41	SEA 24-20 CAR
4:25 p.m.	San Diego Chargers	Green Bay Packers (-11.5)	50.5	GB 34-27 SD
4:25 p.m.	Baltimore Ravens (-1)	San Francisco 49ers	44	SF 24-21 BAL
8:30 p.m.	New England Patriots (-8)	Indianapolis Colts	55	NE 36-24 IND
8:30 p.m.	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)	49	NYG 24-23 PHI

Note: Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of October 15 at 7 a.m. ET.


Games of the Week Involving Undefeated Teams

Cincinnati at Buffalo

The game at Ralph Wilson Stadium's entertainment value is closely tied to how many Buffalo Bills starters are actually able to suit up to face Cincinnati on Sunday.

Mark Zaleski/Associated Press

The Bills are suffering through a litany of injuries right now, including an MCL sprain to do-it-all quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who was limited in practice on Wednesday, per the team's official site. The team's attack has struggled because of the mounting injuries. The Bills only tallied a combined 24 points in the past two weeks after racking up 100 through the first three.

However, the team could get some key players back for the game against Cincinnati, per the Associated Press: 

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Coach Rex Ryan announced Monday that receiver Sammy Watkins (right calf) is expected to return after missing two games. And though starting running back LeSean McCoy's status remains uncertain because of a nagging left hamstring injury, backup Karlos Williams (concussion) has a chance to return after missing one game.

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Taylor's absence would be a critical blow, as he's performed rather admirably despite seemingly all the talent around him landing on the injured list, gritting out a tough 14-13 win over Tennessee in Week 5.

According to the Bills' official Twitter account, Taylor plans on playing against the Bengals:  

If E.J. Manuel does have to play in his stead, the Bills defense will have to step up in a big way against Andy Dalton and company. Manuel has a career 78.5 passer rating and lost the starting job to Taylor this offseason. Manuel is a mobile quarterback, but his play might squander the prospective boost provided by the returns of Watkins, McCoy and Williams. 

While the Bills sort out their quarterback worries, the Bengals can take comfort in the fact Dalton is playing some of the best football of his career. The 27-year-old has thrown 11 touchdowns against just two picks this season.

He led his squad to a thrilling come-from-behind win against Seattle in Week 5. The Bengals went into the fourth quarter down 24-7, but scored 17 in the fourth and a field goal in overtime to win 27-24 at home. NFL on ESPN trotted out a favorable Boomer Esiason comparison: 

A solid, opportunistic Buffalo defense—16th in yards per game, 13th in points allowed with nine sacks and 10 takeaways—will have its hands full. Tyler Eifert and A.J. Green are menaces in the passing game, and there are two talented backs to watch in Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard, even though the latter has been more effective than the former. 

Injuries mean everything to this scrappy, well-coached Bills squad. If healthy, they have the talent and pluck to make this a tough scrap at the friendly confines of Ralph Wilson Stadium.

Carolina at Seattle

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Seattle is going to be out for blood after that disappointing loss to Cincinnati last time out. Carolina may be 4-0, but the four teams they've beaten are a combined 5-14 on the season.

They do have the advantage of having had two weeks to prepare for the Seahawks with an early Week 5 bye. That's about it, though. Seattle matches up with this team quite well.

Cam Newton and company could be in for a rough outing against Seattle's excellent secondary. The likes of Ted Ginn Jr. and Philly Brown don't exactly inspire confidence going up against Richard Sherman and Cary Williams.

The two wideouts have combined for just 18 receptions and four touchdowns this year. Despite possessing plenty of speed, just three of Ginn's receptions have been over 20 yards, per Pro-Football-Reference. He's a threat downfield, but an inaccurate Newton (55.4 completion percentage) isn't always capable of finding him.

If Newton is to have success, it might have to come through tight end Greg Olsen, who's reeled in 17 of his quarterback's 67 completions this season. NFL.com's Chris Wesseling wrote that safety Kam Chancellor might not be all that great in coverage: 

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Eifert wasn't alone. Andy Dalton targeted Chancellor three times in a row with Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu for a total of 40 yards on a fourth-quarter touchdown drive.

Dalton's 17-point comeback was somewhat reminiscent of Tom Brady's Super Bowl MVP performance, with both quarterbacks exploiting Chancellor's coverage limitations in the middle of the field.

That's not to say Chancellor isn't a great player. He's simply better at stuffing the run and playing enforcer than hanging with the game's premier tight ends such as Eifert and Rob Gronkowski.

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Even if Olsen has a big game, Carolina probably won't put up a big total. Seattle is allowing just 214 net passing yards per game. Running back Jonathan Stewart shouldn't strike fear into the heart of a defense allowing just 3.5 yards per carry and that has given up just three rushing touchdowns, per ESPN.

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Seattle should be able to slow Carolina to a crawl, leaving it to the offense to produce. The Hawks will get a big boost with the return of Marshawn Lynch, who is "ready to go," according to head coach Pete Carroll, per the team's official Twitter account. Even if he is limited, Thomas Rawls (169 rushing yards versus Cincinnati) has been a capable backup.

Protecting Russell Wilson will be key to Seattle's success. He's been sacked a league-high 22 times, making it difficult for him to find able targets such as tight end Jimmy Graham and wideout Doug Baldwin.

Graham has just 21 receptions for 204 yards and two touchdowns this year. He's much better than that. If Lynch can suck in the Panthers defense and stymie the pass rush in the process, Wilson should be able to exploit that with play-action and bootleg passes.

San Diego at Green Bay

Matt Ludtke/Associated Press

The San Diego Chargers are the biggest underdog of Week 6, according to the spread. The defense is shoddy except for a few bright spots, the offensive line is in tatters and the quarterback they face—Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers—is the best in the business right now. 

So yes, the Bolts are very likely going to lose, but look at that over-under. This game has the potential for fireworks.

After throwing two picks at home in the teeth of a tough St. Louis pass rush—his first interceptions at Lambeau Field in almost three years—Rodgers should have plenty more time to play pitch-and-catch with the Bolts in town.

The Chargers have just eight sacks on the year, one of the lowest totals in the league. The team is allowing 26.8 points per game—to be fair to the defense, Rivers has thrown a couple of pick-sixes this year—and quarterbacks have a solid 93.9 rating against them, per ESPN.

Rodgers has been almost uniformly excellent despite a banged up pass-catching cadre. This week, Davante Adams and James Jones have been limited in practice, per the Chargers' official site. Normally, this would be cause for concern, but Rodgers should be able to make do. If any San Diego defender can throw a wrench into Green Bay's plans, it's cornerback Jason Verrett, who essentially shut down Pittsburgh's Antonio Brown on Monday. 

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Jon Gruden approves Jason Verrett’s coverage. #MNF pic.twitter.com/tCcnj37Oe0

— ESPN Monday Night (@ESPNMondayNight) October 13, 2015"

ESPN analyst Jon Gruden liked what he saw from the second-year man:

If Verrett can shut down Randall Cobb, it could force Rodgers into dinking and dunking more than he would like. Even so, the running game behind Eddie Lacy should have little problem gaining traction, forcing the Chargers to play catch up.

That would be scary for Bolts fans but fun for neutrals, as it means Philip Rivers will spend plenty of time throwing the football. He's leading the league in passing yards despite his offensive line looking like a mass-casualty incident every week. Rodgers is impressed with his signal-calling adversary.

"That is what consistency looks like, how Philip has done it," he said, per Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union Tribune (h/t San Luis Obispo Tribune). "It's impressive, and he has the respect of his peers."

Lenny Ignelzi/Associated Press

Pittsburgh put him under a good amount of pressure, and he still produced, completing over 70 percent of his passes for 365 yards, two touchdowns and one pick. With Green Bay likely to put him under even more pressure (20 sacks on the year), Rivers should be in gunslinger mode from the start.

The Chargers saw the return of tight end Antonio Gates in Week 4, and he immediately made an impact, catching nine passes for 94 yards and two touchdowns. Along with Keenan Allen, Malcom Floyd and Danny Woodhead, Rivers has excellent targets at every level of the passing game.

The Green Bay matchup could also provide a big opportunity for hard-running rookie Melvin Gordon to have a breakout game. The Wisconsin native has struggled to gain traction in the rushing game (3.8 yards per carry) but has flashed his tackle-shedding abilities as a checkdown option. Green Bay is allowing 5.0 yards per carry, per ESPN. The only team worse? The Bolts, at 5.1 yards per rush.

If either QB gets in trouble, the running games can keep both offenses chugging along, making this a fun game to check out.