NFL Week 5 Picks: Odds Predictions, Advice and Latest Expert Locks

Indianapolis beat the odds on Thursday night, upsetting slight favorites the Houston Texans by a score of 27-20.

The Colts did it with 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck running the show, which shows even the unlikeliest of stars can throw all kinds of prognostications and preconceived notions out of whack. The rest of the week will surely feature more surprise results.

Here are the Week 5 picks from a few experts across the web, followed by a look at a couple of the more compelling matchups and what to make of the game odds. All odds are courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of October 9 at 7 a.m. ET.

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

Note: Picks are from Bleacher Report, CBS Sports, Fox Sports, ESPN.com and SB Nation.

Won't Cover: St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers (-10)

While it would be foolish to pick Aaron Rodgers to lose a game at home, it's not crazy to imagine St. Louis and its marauding front seven causing him enough trouble that it keeps this game close.

The horrid San Francisco 49ers managed to hold Rodgers and company to just 17 points on the road. This is the same team that allowed a combined 90 points to Pittsburgh and Arizona in Weeks 2 and 3. 

Rodgers and his various targets were just a bit off on several plays, so the game could have been much worse for the Niners. It wasn't, and it gives the Rams some hope heading into Sunday.

The Rams are tied with Green Bay with 17 team sacks this season, trailing only Denver's 18. They've allowed just three passing touchdowns while picking off three passes this season.

"Their ability to create penetration really sets the whole tone for their defense," Packers coach Mike McCarthy said, via the Associated Press (h/t FoxSports.com). "It's a big test for us."

However, QBs are completing 75.7 percent of their passes against the Rams, per ESPN.com.

That last stat is particularly scary, as Rodgers has completed over 70 percent of his passes this season and hasn't yet thrown a pick. However, if St. Louis can at least keep the big plays off the board, its own offense should have a chance at keeping up. Discipline has been a key theme at Rams practice all week, so as not to allow Rodgers free plays. Jeff Fisher even busted out an air horn in a team meeting, per ESPN.com's Nick Wagoner.

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

"That's just a message to the D-line on the hard count," Fisher said, via Wagoner. "No one uses the hard count better than Aaron. ... He pulls them offside two or three times a game. So I woke them up in their meeting room this morning with the horn, just to send a message."

Rodgers makes teams pay for their mistakes and has generally walked on water all season, but he can't keep doing it alone. Per Packers.com, wideout Davante Adams hasn't practiced this week after an ankle injury kept him out Week 4, while Randall Cobb has been limited battling a shoulder injury. James Jones, tight end Richard Rodgers and wide receiver Ty Montgomery have stepped up admirably, but Green Bay's big-play chances could be limited.

While Green Bay can march downfield with a strong running game behind Eddie Lacy and Rodgers' accuracy, St. Louis could be the ones making the highlight-reel plays. Rookie Todd Gurley picked up 146 rushing yards last week in a breakout game, and he could be posed for another big effort, as Green Bay is allowing 4.8 yards per carry, per ESPN.com. 

The Rams have also found ways to make good use of their offensive Swiss army knife, Tavon Austin. He had two touchdowns in Week 4, including this 47-yard catch, via the NFL: 

Matchup (w/ Spread)	Mike Freeman, Bleacher Report	Jason La Canfora, CBS Sports	Chris Mortensen, ESPN	Peter Schrager, Fox Sports	Ryan Van Bibber, SB Nation
Washington at Atlanta (-8)	ATL	WAS	ATL	ATL	ATL
Cleveland at Baltimore (-7)	BAL	CLE	BAL	BAL	BAL
Seattle at Cincinnati (-3)	CIN	SEA	CIN	CIN	CIN
St. Louis at Green Bay (-10)	GB	STL	STL	GB	GB
Chicago at Kansas City (-10)	KC	CHI	KC	KC	KC
New Orleans at Philadelphia (-5.5)	NO	NO	PHI	PHI	PHI
Jacksonville at Tampa Bay (-2.5)	JAX	JAX	TB	TB	TB
Buffalo (-1) at Tennessee	TEN	TEN	TEN	BUF	BUF
Arizona (-2.5) at Detroit	ARI	ARI	ARI	ARI	ARI
New England (-10) at Dallas	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
Denver (-4.5) at Oakland	DEN	DEN	OAK	DEN	OAK
San Francisco at New York Giants (-7)	NYG	NYG	NYG	SF	NYG
Pittsburgh at San Diego (-3)	PIT	PIT	SD	SD	SD

Quarterback Nick Foles isn't as prolific as Rodgers, but he's thrown just one pick this year. He has young, game-breaking talent around him and solid targets in Kenny Britt and tight end Jared Cook. If the Rams take care of the football, they won't fall too far behind Green Bay on the road.

St. Louis loses this game by no more than a touchdown. 

Take the Points: Denver Broncos (-4.5) at Oakland Raiders

This plucky Raiders squad certainly looks like the most cohesive group of players the franchise has fielded in some time. Aldon Smith, Justin Tuck and Khalil Mack are doing fine work rushing the passer and anchoring the front seven, while Derek Carr has made solid strides in his second year at quarterback and has an excellent target in rookie Amari Cooper at wide receiver. 

Latavius Murray has been a very productive running back, although he did have two costly fumbles in Oakland's Week 4 loss to Chicago. 

It's a solid collection of young talent, but this Denver defense will be the toughest it's faced all season, and Oakland's own isn't strong enough to stop even a noodle-armed Peyton Manning. 

Denver leads the league in sacks, as DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller have proven to be the most fearsome pass-rushing tandem in the NFL. Opponents have posted a 64.5 quarterback rating against the Broncos, the second-worst mark in the league, per ESPN.com.

Carr hasn't been blitzed much this season, although he's performed well in such situations, per ESPN.com's Bill Williamson:

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...Denver is blitzing on 37 percent of opponents’ dropbacks. That is the fifth highest rate in the NFL. Denver had seven sacks against Minnesota in Week 4.

Carr should expect a big increase in blitzing. In four games, he has been pressured just 13.4 percent of his dropbacks. It is the second-lowest rate in the NFL behind the Giants’ Eli Manning. He has been blitzed 12.8 percent of his dropbacks.

Carr has responded well when blitzed, though. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Carr has completed 7-of-13 passes for 146 yards and a touchdown while being rushed by five or more defenders. His 11.2 yards per attempt on such throws is the best in the league.

"

He might be able to make a few plays on Sunday, but look for him to revert to his rookie ways after an entire afternoon under fire. Denver has proven to be a very opportunistic team this year, notching 11 takeaways for a plus-five advantage in turnovers. Should Murray repeat his Sunday mistakes or Carr make a couple of errant throws in the vicinity of either Chris Harris Jr. or Aqib Talib, the Broncos can rout this team.

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

After many, many seasons of essentially uninterrupted dominance, the 39-year-old Manning is finally coming back down to earth. He's been up and down in his performances through the first four weeks of the season, and yet Denver has won every game. Oakland's allowed 311 net passing yards this year, the second-worst rate in the league.

While Mack and company have done a fine job of creating pressure, the secondary is one of the real weaknesses of this team. SB Nation's Levi Damien noted corner D.J. Hayden had an atrocious game against Chicago:

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Anyone else getting tired of seeing DJ Hayden as Top Buster? This week, he landed here with a bullet. He was flat out awful in this game right from the start. On the Bears' first drive, he was blocked on an 8-yard run and two plays later, on third and 2, gave up a 35-yard catch to put the Bears at the 10-yard-line. Then he, of course, gave up the catch and missed tackle for a 7-yard touchdown.

"

His job isn't going to get any easier covering Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, two of the best wideouts in the league. 

The Broncos run game has been mixed to bad this year, with C.J. Anderson (2.7 yards per carry) struggling to gain any traction behind a shaky offensive line. Ronnie Hillman, a slick speedster with a prototypical third-down back game, could provide a jolt to the rushing attack. The San Diego State alum carried the ball 11 times for 103 yards and one score in Week 4. He could be on the verge of taking over the starting role, per NFL Network's James Palmer: 

Hillman is a very quick running back who does well on toss, sweep and off-tackle plays. If he can stretch the defense, it could take pressure off the passing game and create big play-action opportunities for Manning downfield. The 6'3" Thomas should be up to the task.

Oakland is an upstart squad, but even at home, Denver should be able to outpace it by at least double digits. The Broncos defense will create pressure and force turnovers while Manning rips through a weak secondary on the other side.