MLB Playoffs 2015: Round-by-Round Picks and Predictions
If the MLB Wild Card Games were the appetizer—the amuse-bouche, if you're feeling fancy—then the main course is about to be served.
Beginning Thursday and spilling into Friday, the four division series will commence. And boy, what a meaty meal that promises to be.
The Houston Astros, upstart darlings of 2015, take on the Kansas City Royals, last season's upstarts-turned-defending American League champs. The powerful Toronto Blue Jays clash with the resurgent Texas Rangers. The pitching-rich New York Mets battle the Los Angeles Dodgers and their pair of Cy Young-caliber aces.
Oh, and the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals are playing each other in the postseason for the first time ever, if that does anything for you.
And that's merely the first course. Loosen your belts, people.
So how will this October banquet unfold? Who will advance, and who will be tossed from the table? Watch the games, obviously, and find out.
In the meantime, here's a preview of each round, culminating with the Fall Classic, with picks and predictions for every series based on regular-season numbers, matchups and a dash of old-fashioned gut feeling.
We may not get every pick right. In fact, we almost assuredly won't. The playoffs invariably offer twists, which is half the fun. (The other half is debating and disagreeing, so do that in the comments.)
But that's enough preamble. Put your napkin in your lap, grab that knife and fork, and dig in.*
*Yes, we'll cut it out with the sloppy food metaphors starting...now.
American League Division Series
1 of 5
Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays
Game 1: Oct. 8, 3:37 p.m. ET (TV: Fox Sports 1)
Think Toronto baseball fans are ready to host a playoff game? It's only been 22 years, the longest drought in North American professional sports.
That's a lot of pent-up, unspent excitement, and you can bet the Rogers Centre will be rocking when the Texas Rangers come to town for Game 1 on Thursday.
On July 31, the Rangers and Blue Jays were both sitting in third place in their respective divisions, hovering around .500.
We're using the trade deadline as a demarcation for a reason, obviously. That's when the Rangers added ace left-hander Cole Hamels and the Jays got a stud southpaw of their own by the name of David Price, as well as All-Star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, among other pieces.
From there, each squad streaked to the finish line.
The Jays come in toting baseball's most lethal offense. They're MLB's highest-scoring club, pacing the next closest team, the New York Yankees, by more than 100 runs. They also lead the pack in slugging percentage, on-base percentage, home runs, total bases and, well, you get the idea.
"There's no getting past one guy and taking an exhale," Rangers closer Shawn Tolleson said, per Ian Harrison of the Associated Press (via Yahoo Sports). "Definitely, that poses its challenges. It's not an easy lineup to just pitch around one guy and get to the next.''
On the pitching side, Toronto throws out Price, followed by young right-hander Marcus Stroman, whose comeback from a devastating spring training ACL injury is one of the season's best stories. Add Marco Estrada, and the Blue Jays have what ESPN's David Schoenfield correctly labeled "the best trio of starters in the AL."
As for Texas? Well, despite the presence of Hamels and an offense fueled by a veteran core including Comeback Player of the Year hopeful Prince Fielder, the Rangers simply can't match Toronto's firepower.
Texas' plus-18 run differential is easily the worst among playoff-qualifying clubs (the already-eliminated Yankees are next at plus-66).
That's not a death knell by itself, but it suggests a club that will have a hard time hanging with the high-flying Jays.
Prediction: Blue Jays in three.
Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals
Game 1: Oct. 8, 7:37 p.m. ET (TV: Fox Sports 1)
As mentioned, this series pits last year's Cinderella, the Royals, against this year's, the Astros.
They're both small-budget squads, both blessed with speed and emerging talent, and both overlooked until they couldn't be overlooked any more.
The biggest difference is that Kansas City won nine more games than Houston in the regular season and coasted to a division title, while the Astros barely squeaked in as the second wild card.
The 'Stros have the wind at their backs after defeating the Yankees on the road in the do-or-die Wild Card Game, but they also spent their ace, Dallas Keuchel, in the process.
Keuchel, who threw six shutout innings on three days' rest, will almost certainly make just one appearance against the Royals. That could put more pressure on a Houston bullpen that wobbled down the stretch, posting a league-worst 5.63 ERA in September and October.
Speaking of pitching, the Royals have mound questions of their own.
Hard-throwing right-hander Yordano Ventura is set to take the ball in Game 1, and while he finished the regular season on a high note, he was demoted to Triple-A in July and lugs lingering concerns about his hotheaded tendencies.
Ostensible ace Johnny Cueto, acquired at the trade deadline, has been a frequently mediocre enigma since arriving in K.C. And the Royals' once-vaunted bullpen was dinged by the loss of closer Greg Holland to an elbow injury.
This series, then, may come down to the offenses. Here, too, you can make a case either way.
The Royals boast a balanced lineup that tied with Toronto for the second-best batting average among AL clubs. The Astros, meanwhile, finished second to the Jays in home runs. Houston plated the fifth-most runs in the Junior Circuit with 729, while the Royals finished sixth with 724.
In the final analysis, we'll give this one to Kansas City for its playoff experience. That's admittedly ironic considering the Royals rode their exuberant inexperience to Game 7 of the World Series last season, but who said baseball was consistent?
Prediction: Royals in four.
National League Division Series
2 of 5
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals
Game 1: Oct. 9, 6:45 p.m. (TV: TBS)
As far back as the Cubs-Cardinals rivalry dates (somewhere in the Cretaceous period?), these two storied franchises have never met in the postseason—until now.
So, yeah, this is kind of a big deal.
Writing for Sports on Earth, Will Leitch mapped it out in April:
"It just never quite works out for those two, being competitive at the same time. Since 1996, the Cardinals have only missed the postseason seven times: 1997, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2007, 2008 and 2010. The Cubs have made the postseason four times since 1996, and every single one of them was during a season the Cardinals missed: 1998, 2003, 2007 and 2008. It's like they're purposely trying to avoid each other.
"
This year, there will be no avoidance. The Cubs, who beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-0 in the NL Wild Card Game behind ace Jake Arrieta, will head to Missouri to deal with the Cards, who won 100 games.
The Cubs won't be able to toss out Arrieta in Game 1, and they may only get one start out of the NL Cy Young hopeful, though playoff-tested lefty Jon Lester offers a fine No. 2 option and the Cubs' bullpen is deep and talented.
On the flip side, the Cards' formerly stellar pitching staff posted a 4.18 ERA in September and October, and it lost right-hander Carlos Martinez to a shoulder injury.
The unknown commodity for St. Louis is veteran Adam Wainwright, who returned from a torn Achillies in late September and could contribute out of the bullpen, or even make a surprise start.
Where the scales truly tip here is in the batter's box. The Cubs, with their cadre of budding stars, bested the Cardinals in virtually every offensive category this year.
Chicago also won each of the last two series it played against St. Louis. Look for that trend to continue and for the up-and-coming Cubbies to best their nemesis in this groundbreaking playoff clash.
Prediction: Cubs in four.
New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers
Game 1: Oct. 9, 9:45 p.m. (TV:TBS)
The argument for the Dodgers begins and ends with Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, and it's a pretty damn convincing argument.
Greinke and Kershaw, along with Arrieta, were the best pitchers in the National League this year, and they form a lefty-righty buzz saw that'll be tough for any team to get past.
The Mets, meanwhile, counter with an offense led by trade-deadline savior Yoenis Cespedes, who has been on a Ruthian tear since arriving in New York.
And the Mets also have some pitching of their own, beginning with a trio of right-handed studs: Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard.
The Mets' bats led the Senior Circuit in runs scored in the second half, while the Dodgers checked in at No. 13 out of 15. So it's easy to assume the Amazins have an edge there.
Remember, though, L.A. will throw out Greinke and Kershaw in Games 1 and 2 at Dodger Stadium. It's entirely possible the Mets will limp back to Queens down 0-2.
It's also possible they'll get off the mat and start swinging, just as they did when they streaked past the favored Washington Nationals to win the NL East.
This might be the most evenly matched division series this year. You could even call it a coin flip.
In that case, we're putting the money on Greinke/Kershaw.
Prediction: Dodgers in five.
American League Championship Series
3 of 5
Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals
Game 1: Oct. 16 (TV: Fox)
With the two Texas teams out of the picture, the true titans of the AL will clash.
Kansas City brings speed, defense and the residue of last year's magical run. The Jays bring the thump, plus a well-rested Price for Game 1, assuming they sweep the Rangers as predicted.
The Jays narrowly won the season series against Kansas City 4-3, further suggesting these are two well-matched clubs.
Now consider this: The Royals would have home-field advantage in the series, thanks to their best-in-the-AL record. And Kauffman Stadium is one of the least power-friendly yards in the game, according to ESPN's Park Factors statistic.
That would seem to nudge the needle toward K.C. If AL MVP contender Josh Donaldson and his big-bashing compatriots can't launch the ball over the fence, suddenly this Blue Jays squad takes a hit.
But Toronto has pitching, too, as mentioned. They'd almost surely be able to throw Price twice in a best-of-seven, with Marcus Stroman and Marco Estrada going once each. Even fourth starter R.A. Dickey had good numbers against most of the Royals' top hitters this year.
Kansas City won't go down without a fight, not after coming within a Madison Bumgarner of hoisting the trophy last year and fighting to ascend the stage again.
In the end, though, the Jays' lumber and deep rotation will simply prove too much.
Prediction: Blue Jays in six.
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National League Championship Series
4 of 5
Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers
Game 1: Oct. 17 (TV: TBS)
For the second consecutive season, the NL's No. 2 wild-card team will try to reach the World Series. And yet again, that team will succeed.
Sorry to cut to the chase, but these Cubbies are a team on a mission. They can't afford to wait around.
Yes, they'll stare down the Greinke-Kershaw gauntlet. And yes, the Dodgers will own home-field advantage despite finishing with a worse regular-season record than Chicago, thanks to the wonders of divisional alignment.
The Cubs, however, counter with Arrieta, who, in twirling his Wild Card Game masterpiece against Pittsburgh, became the first pitcher ever to throw a postseason shutout with double-digit strikeouts and no walks, as ESPN.com's Jayson Stark noted.
And the Cubbies' young lineup, featuring NL Rookie of the Year front-runner Kris Bryant and a cast of blossoming-before-our-eyes stars, showed it isn't fazed by adversity as it took care of business at PNC Park, even amid a benches-clearing incident.
This is the moment the Cubs envisioned when they tapped Theo Epstein, whom Bleacher Report's Scott Miller recently called a "miracle worker," to be their president of baseball operations.
Greinke and Kershaw are good. They're great, in fact. Right now, the young, hungry, hard-charging Cubs are better.
Prediction: Cubs in six.
World Series
5 of 5
Chicago Cubs at Toronto Blue Jays
Game 1: Oct. 27 (TV: Fox)
What a Fall Classic this would be.
The club from Canada, fresh off of a two-decades-plus dry spell, pitted against the lovable losers from the North Side, who haven't won a title since Teddy Roosevelt hung his gun in the White House.
The best offense in baseball versus the pitching staff that led both leagues in strikeouts and opponents' batting average.
Josh Donaldson, the potential AL MVP, against Jake Arrieta, the possible NL Cy Young.
This series, quite simply, would be brimming with storylines. But none would come close to the Cubs' incredible, historic, logic-defying futility.
We're talking billy goats. We're talking Steve Bartman. We're talking 107 years of bitter, get-'em-next-time heartbreak.
"It's tremendous for the city, it's been a while," Arrieta said after the Wild Card Game, per Reuters' Larry Fine. "Chicago has been waiting for this."
Will the wait finally, mercifully, joyously end?
We're saying yes, though it'll go the limit and finish in Toronto thanks to the AL's win in the All-Star Game. A few hundred miles away in the Windy City, a curse-stricken fanbase will take it and weep.
Prediction: Cubs in seven.
All statistics current as of Oct. 7 and courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.
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