NASCAR at Charlotte 2015: Complete Preview, Prediction for Bank of America 500
With Dover and the first round of the Chase for the Sprint Cup now in NASCAR’s rearview mirror, it’s time to advance to the second round.
This will be a pivotal round, as three races from now, the field will have been cut to just eight drivers from the original 16 drivers who began the Chase nearly four weeks ago.
Regardless of how good or bad drivers were in the first round, they enter the second round back to square one, as the points have reset and everyone is on equal footing heading into Charlotte.
It won’t be that way after Saturday’s race. So if drivers want to make a move toward Round 3, it will be crucial for them to get while the getting is good.
And the getting won’t get much better than at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
Here’s how Saturday night’s Bank of America 500 shapes up:
By the Numbers: Charlotte Motor Speedway
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Bank of America 400
Place: Charlotte Motor Speedway
Date: Saturday, Oct. 10
Time: 7 p.m. ET
TV: NBCSN, 6 p.m. ET
Radio: Performance Racing Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.
Distance: 334 laps, 501 miles (1.5-mile banked oval).
Defending winner: Kevin Harvick won this race last year, while Carl Edwards won this year’s Coca-Cola 600.
Youngest winner: Jeff Gordon on May 29, 1994 (22 years, 2 months, 6 days).
Oldest winner: Cale Yarborough on October 6, 1985 (49 years, 10 months, 8 days).
Youngest pole winner: Jeff Gordon on Oct. 10, 1993 (22 years, 2 months, 6 days).
Oldest pole winner: Bobby Allison on Oct. 11, 1987 (49 years, 10 months, 8 days).
Most wins: all-time and active—Jimmie Johnson (7).
Most poles: all-time—David Pearson (14); active—Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman (9 each).
Most top fives: all-time—Mark Martin (24); active—Jeff Gordon (18).
Most top 10s: all-time—Bobby Allison and Richard Petty (23); active—Jeff Gordon (17).
Lead lap finishes: all-time—Mark Martin (30); active—Jeff Gordon (17).
Laps completed: all-time—Ricky Rudd (20,294); active—Michael Waltrip (15,925).
Laps led: all-time—Bobby Allison (2,339); active—Jimmie Johnson (1,733).
Most race starts at Dover: all-time—Richard Petty (64); active—Michael Waltrip (49).
Race record: Jeff Gordon (160.306 mph) on Oct. 11, 1999.
Qualifying record: Kyle Busch (197.39 mph) on Oct. 11, 2014.
Best average start: all-time—Fireball Roberts (5.200); active—Jimmie Johnson (7.821).
Best average finish: all-time—Rex White (9.000); active—Joey Logano (10.231).
TRACK NOTES
* Total number of races at Charlotte: 113.
* Total number of different pole winners in Charlotte history: 43.
* Races won from pole: 15.
* Last race won from pole: Jimmie Johnson on May 25, 2014.
* Number of race winners at Charlotte: 43.
* DNFs (most): all-time—Dave Marcis (36); active—Ken Schrader (13).
* DNFs (least): all-time and active—Martin Truex Jr. (0 in 20 starts).
Statistical information provided by NASCAR Media Relations.
Key Storylines
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Where do we go from here?: With the first round of the Chase now in the books and the first four drivers eliminated, we move on to Round 2 of the Chase. The field has been cut from the original 16 to 12. Who are the drivers who could struggle in this round and potentially be among the next four eliminated? Keep a close eye on the drivers who just barely made it out of the first round, such as Dale Earnhardt Jr., who staved off elimination by a mere one point.
Why a win at Charlotte is so important: With the points reset, the 12 remaining Chase drivers are all back to being even in the standings. But this not a race to count points. Drivers know a win at Charlotte—and/or next week at Kansas Speedway—is of the utmost importance. Why? A driver does not want to go into Talladega needing a win to advance to the next round—like Kevin Harvick needed at Dover. Talladega is too much of an unpredictable wild-card race to bank on anything. Ergo, go for a win at Charlotte or Kansas, and reap the benefit of automatic advancement to Round 3.
Where to from here for Hendrick Motorsports?: With six-time Sprint Cup champion Jimmie Johnson eliminated in the first round, just four-time champ Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. remain as the two representatives for Hendrick Motorsports. In a sense, Johnson’s elimination helps Gordon’s and Earnhardt’s championship hopes—but they’ll have to get through Round 2 first.
Where to from here for Kevin Harvick?: After dominating and winning Sunday at Dover to earn advancement to the second round, Kevin Harvick is starting to look like the man to beat in the rest of the Chase. He won last year’s Chase race at Charlotte and will be looking to do that again on Saturday night. If Harvick wins any of the three races in this round, this championship could be his to win.
The non-Chasers have a voice too: Last week saw four non-Chase drivers finish in the top 10. That’s a pretty stout number. It’s also indicative of the motivation the non-Chasers have. Not only can they play the role of spoiler, but they can also use whatever gains they earn the rest of the season to build upon for 2016. Keep a close eye on guys like Greg Biffle, Kyle Larson, Austin Dillon and Ricky Stenhouse Jr., among others.
Drivers to Watch
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Where to from here for Jimmie Johnson?: The six-time Sprint Cup champion was eliminated from further advancement in the Chase at Dover International Speedway. But that doesn’t mean his season is over. On the contrary, with nothing to lose and everything to gain, Johnson could be the biggest spoiler of all in the remaining seven races.
Remember when Tony Stewart failed to make the Chase in 2006 after winning the championship in 2005? Stewart went on to win three of the Chase races. Look for Johnson to try to do the same. One other thing in Johnson's favor: He's won a record seven times at Charlotte. Can you say eight?
Denny Hamlin: After winning the Chase opener at Chicagoland and finishing second at New Hampshire, Hamlin plunged to a disappointing 18th-place finish at Dover. He needs to bounce back in a big way, and Charlotte is one of his favorite tracks. Do the math and Hamlin could very well win his second race of the Chase on Saturday night. If he doesn’t get a good start in Round 2, Hamlin does not want to be in a situation where he must play catch-up at the always-unpredictable Talladega Superspeedway—and then ultimately come up short of Round 3.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: After barely advancing to Round 2 of the Chase—by a mere one point—a lot of eyes will be on Earnhardt and what he does or doesn’t do in the next three races. While he has had significant success in restrictor plates, including winning earlier this year at Talladega, that doesn’t make him a lock to win there again in the final race of Round 2 three weeks from now. Earnhardt struggled in the opening round. He can’t afford to do that again lest there will be no third round for him.
Jeff Gordon: Gordon’s hopes to go out on top and earn a fifth Sprint Cup championship in his final season as a driver are still alive. But he’ll have to perform significantly better in Round 2 than he did in the opening round if he hopes to continue advancing forward. Charlotte is one of Gordon’s more successful tracks. With every driver tied in points heading into Saturday’s race, Gordon could make a big statement with finally earning his first win of the season—not to mention punch his ticket for an automatic advancement to Round 3.
Kyle Larson: After struggling through much of his sophomore season in the Sprint Cup Series, we’ve started to see some positive signs from Larson in the last several races (three top-10s and a top-12 in four of the last five), including a ninth-place showing at Dover. Although he finished 25th at Charlotte in the Coca-Cola 600 back in May, Larson is becoming better at mid-range tracks. Don’t be surprised if he comes out of Charlotte with another top-10 or perhaps even a top-five finish.
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Favorites
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Matt Kenseth: If a race is held on a 1.5-mile track, Kenseth is automatically considered one of the top contenders. And Charlotte has definitely been good for Kenseth. In 32 career starts there, he has two wins, 10 top-five and 17 top-10 finishes. Just like the win he earned two weeks ago at New Hampshire, Kenseth has another win circled on his calendar for Charlotte. Not only will it advance him to the third round, but he won’t have to worry about where he finishes at Kansas or Talladega.
Kevin Harvick: Harvick had to do the impossible at Dover, and that’s just what he did. And in so doing, his dominating finish and the way he controlled that race automatically propelled him from a near-zero going into Dover to a big hero afterward. What’s more, even though Dover was just one race—and there are seven more still to go—Harvick likely increased his stock to be the man to beat the rest of the way. If he keeps driving like he did at Dover, no one will touch him.
Carl Edwards: Cousin Carl continues to have a great Chase. But a win is definitely on his bucket list—and Charlotte would be a perfect place for him to do so. After all, he outlasted everyone else in the field in a fuel-mileage battle to win the grueling Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte in May, his first victory for Joe Gibbs Racing. There’s no reason why he can’t double-up Saturday night.
Edwards has shown the kind of confidence and performance he displayed in 2011, when he tied with Tony Stewart for the Sprint Cup championship only to lose on a tiebreaker. One other thing: There is so much focus on drivers like Kenseth, Harvick, Hamlin and others that Edwards could fly under the radar all the way to the championship.
Jimmie Johnson: Even though he failed to advance to the second round of the Chance, Johnson remains just as much of a threat to win any of the remaining seven races as he ever has been. Plus, JJ has a stellar record at Charlotte: In 28 starts, he has seven wins, 13 top-five and 17 top-10 finishes. How can Johnson not be ticked off after being eliminated at Dover? That means a ticked off Johnson is a dangerous Johnson and a threat to win in virtually each of the seven remaining races. Don’t count out the 48 just because he can’t advance further in the Chase. He’s going to be a big player in this race, mark my words.
Joey Logano: If there’s one track that Logano would love to finally win at, it’s Charlotte. In 13 Sprint Cup starts there, he has four top-five and seven top-10 finishes, but a win has eluded him. Logano needs to make a big splash at either Charlotte or Kansas to minimize the potential risk of what could happen to him at Talladega. With back-to-back 1.5-mile tracks over the next two weeks, Logano should do well.
Dark-Horse Pick: Jamie McMurray
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Much like Jimmie Johnson, Jamie McMurray is disappointed for failing to advance to the second round of the Chase.
And the way he failed—by just one point—will stick in McMurray’s craw for a long time.
That’s why the 39-year-old couldn’t have picked a better place than Charlotte as the first track to return to after the disappointment of finishing fourth and still falling short of advancing in the Chase at Dover.
Plus, Charlotte is one of McMurray’s best tracks, with two wins, seven top-five and 10 top-10 finishes there in 26 starts.
Anger at falling short can be a great motivating factor, and it will be that way for McMurray on Saturday.
Plus, McMurray has added personal incentive: He'll likely dedicate Saturday's race to his niece, Lauren Montez, who died last Sunday.
Montez had autism, and McMurray had become a tireless worker and advocate to raise awareness for it. It would be a heck of a feel-good story if McMurray wins at Charlotte for both his team and his niece.
And the Winner Is: Kyle Busch
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Yes, I’m going with Kyle Busch to win for a second week in a row.
At risk of being eliminated from the Chase, Busch not only did what he had to do at Dover to assure advancement to the second round of the Chase, but the way he did it—finishing runner-up to Kevin Harvick—was very impressive.
Busch made his return from the devastating crash at Daytona International Speedway in February at Charlotte in May and finished a respectable 11th.
Plus, Busch has additional incentive coming into Saturday’s race: Even though he has 10 top-five and 14 top-10 finishes in 23 starts, Charlotte is one of only five tracks Busch has never won a Sprint Cup race at. It’s time for him to change that.
Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski.
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