ALDS 2015: Rangers vs. Blue Jays Position by Position Breakdown, Predictions
After an epic second-half run, David Price, Josh Donaldson and the rest of the Toronto Blue Jays will be looking to carry that momentum into the American League Division Series.
In the opening round, the Blue Jays will face off against the Texas Rangers, who enjoyed their own second-half surge and who will also be looking to make some noise in October.
After digging through the 2015 stats and breaking down the matchup on a position-by-position basis, there's no way around it—the Blue Jays have the edge in a ton of different categories. What follows is not just a rundown of each of those positional battles, but also a prediction for how this series between the Blue Jays and the Rangers will shake out.
Catcher
1 of 14
The Battle: Robinson Chirinos vs. Russell Martin
On paper, the Blue Jays have the clear edge in this department, as Russell Martin is a four-time All-Star.
But the recent numbers suggest that the competition is closer than it initially appears. Martin clocked 23 home runs in his first season with Toronto, but his offensive production took a dive in the second half. In 51 games following the Midsummer Classic, the right-handed hitter checked in with a .224 average
Robinson Chirinos missed much of the final two months of the season due to a torn tendon in his left shoulder, but the 31-year-old has returned to the lineup at just the right moment for the Rangers.
Chirinos started three games during the final week of the season, and general manager Jon Daniels said that the catcher is on track to be part of the postseason roster, according to T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. When healthy, Chirinos demonstrated impressive power for the Rangers, swatting 10 bombs in just 78 games.
Edge: Blue Jays
1st Base
2 of 14
The Battle: Mitch Moreland/Mike Napoli vs. Justin Smoak/Chris Colabello
Neither the Rangers nor the Blue Jays are lacking for power at first base. Blue Jays manager John Gibbons can pick from either Justin Smoak or Chris Colabello, who combined to slug 33 home runs.
Meanwhile, Rangers skipper Jeff Banister can call on either Mitch Moreland or Mike Napoli at first base. Moreland was a star for the Rangers in 2015, connecting on 23 home runs and posting a .482 slugging percentage.
It's the summer pickup of Napoli (who could also see time in left or at the designated hitter's spot) that gives the Rangers the edge in this debate. After landing at Globe Life Park, the vet posted a .908 OPS in 35 games. Napoli flat-out thrashed left-handed pitching, logging a .364 average and 1.142 OPS in 55 at-bats against southpaws.
Edge: Rangers
2nd Base
3 of 14
The Battle: Rougned Odor vs. Ryan Goins
Rougned Odor is the easy pick here. The Rangers second baseman has better numbers than Ryan Goins in nearly every major offensive category, including average, OBP, slugging percentage, OPS, runs, hits, doubles, triples and home runs.
The 21-year-old really took off in the second half, posting a .520 slugging percentage and an .832 OPS in 68 games. It should be noted that Goins also put up much better numbers in the second half than he did in the first. Goins logged a .594 OPS before the break, but checked in with a .748 mark in his final 60 games.
Edge: Rangers
.png?w=256)
Shortstop
4 of 14
The Battle: Elvis Andrus vs. Troy Tulowitzki
With a .697 OPS in 41 games for the Blue Jays, Troy Tulowitzki didn't live up to the hype after joining the AL East squad in a blockbuster swap. While that mark is significantly lower than his career OPS (.877), it's actually still higher than what Elvis Andrus posted in 2015 (.667).
Tulo is also the superior defender at a spot on the diamond where strong glove work is absolutely crucial. According to the calculations of FanGraphs, Tulowitzki saved five runs at shortstop, while Andrus cost the Rangers one run.
Edge: Blue Jays
3rd Base
5 of 14
The Battle: Josh Donaldson vs. Adrian Beltre
Josh Donaldson would win this battle regardless of which third baseman he was going up against.
In his first year with the Blue Jays, Donaldson smashed 41 home runs and tallied 123 RBI in the process of becoming the leading candidate to win the AL MVP Award. As he explained to Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star, individual accolades are the last thing he's worried about.
“I don’t think about that. I think about helping my team win. That’s what’s got me to this point today, so I’m not going to change that. In the offseason, that’s when you think about this kind of stuff.”
Adrian Beltre hasn't been nearly as brilliant as Donaldson, but he hasn't been a slouch either. The vet notched 18 home runs and was characteristically smooth at the hot corner. According to FanGraphs, Beltre saved 18 runs in the field, which was tied for the most among all third baseman.
The most impressive part about Beltre's season is that he has been playing through thumb and index finger injuries which could require offseason surgery, per Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.
Edge: Blue Jays
Left Field
6 of 14
The Battle: Josh Hamilton vs. Ben Revere
Ben Revere is the safer bet in this competition.
The 27-year-old has been rolling along during his stint with the Blue Jays, as he posted a .319 average in 56 contests. The flyer was also 7-for-9 in stolen-base attempts.
Josh Hamilton is less than a month removed from left knee surgery and will be playing at least the first two games of the series on the turf at Rogers Centre. Skipper Jeff Banister thinks Hamilton and the other hobbled Rangers will still be able to make an impact in the postseason.
“I believe players have the ability in these type of scenarios to step up,” Banister said, per Stefan Stevenson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. “Maybe their pain threshold is a little higher.”
That was definitely the case during the final weekend of the regular season. On Saturday, in the second-to-last game, the left fielder connected on a pair of shots against his old team, the Los Angeles Angels.
Edge: Blue Jays
Center Field
7 of 14
The Battle: Delino DeShields vs. Kevin Pillar
Kevin Pillar can cover an absurd amount of ground in center field. Just check out this MLB.com video of his spectacular catch against the Tampa Bay Rays last Friday when he flew through the air at Rogers Centre.
According to the advanced numbers, Pillar is a significantly better defender than Delino DeShields. While Pillar saved the Blue Jays 14 runs, DeShields cost the Rangers 10 runs, per FanGraphs.
Neither player is a force at the plate, but Pillar is much more of a threat to leave the yard. The Blue Jays center fielder collected 12 home runs, while DeShields totaled just two homers.
Edge: Blue Jays
Right Field
8 of 14
The Battle: Shin-Soo Choo vs. Jose Bautista
With 40 bombs, 29 doubles and 114 RBI, Jose Bautista gets the nod in this battle.
While Shin-Soo Choo loses out to Joey Bats, it's worth noting that the Rangers right fielder went on a tear following the All-Star break. In the second half, Choo logged a .343 average, a .455 OBP, a .560 slugging percentage and a 1.016 OPS.
GM Jon Daniels knows just how valuable the 33-year-old was for the Rangers during the club's run to the AL West title.
"You saw the kind of player he could be in the second half," Daniels said, per Mike Leslie of WFAA Sports. "Perhaps the best player in the league."
As it turns out, Bautista was also among the best players in the AL in the second half. In 69 games, the right-handed hitter cracked 23 homers and posted a .958 OPS.
Edge: Blue Jays
Designated Hitter
9 of 14
The Battle: Prince Fielder vs. Edwin Encarnacion
With 23 homers and an .812 OPS, Prince Fielder is a leading contender to snag the AL Comeback Player of the Year Award.
As strong as those numbers are, they still can't match the stats that Edwin Encarnacion produced. The 32-year-old posted a .929 OPS (fifth in the AL) and connected on 39 home runs (seventh in the AL). Encarnacion also caused plenty of nightmares for Rangers' pitchers. In six games against Texas, the veteran designated hitter hit four homers and drove in 11 runs, per Sportsnet Stats.
Edge: Blue Jays
Bullpen
10 of 14
Projected Rangers Bullpen
- Shawn Tolleson, RHP (Closer)
- Sam Dyson, RHP
- Keone Kela, RHP
- Ross Ohlendorf, RHP
- Chi Chi Gonzalez, RHP
- Jake Diekman, LHP
- Andrew Faulkner.LHP
Blue Jays Bullpen
- Roberto Osuna, RHP (Closer)
- Aaron Sanchez, RHP
- Mark Lowe, RHP
- LaTroy Hawkins, RHP
- Liam Hendriks, RHP
- Brett Cecil, LHP
- Aaron Loup, LHP
According to Barry Davis of Sportsnet, the Blue Jays have already set their ALDS roster. Since the Rangers have yet to announce their group of 25 guys, the bullpen above is a projection.
Based on ERA, Toronto's relief crew has enjoyed more success than the Rangers pen has in 2015. Toronto ranked No. 12 in ERA (3.50), and the Rangers checked in at No. 24 (4.12).
As of late, it's been the setup men who have been pitching the best for the Rangers and the Blue Jays. For the Rangers, Jake Diekman limited the opposition to a .169 average in 26 games, and Sam Dyson hasn't allowed a run since Aug. 27. Brett Cecil is in the midst of an even more incredible streak, as the Blue Jays lefty hasn't been scored on since June 21.
Ultimately, the Rangers get the nod in this category because Rangers closer Shawn Tolleson has been sharper down the stretch than Blue Jays ninth-inning stopper Roberto Osuna.
Tolleson allowed at least one run in each of his final two outings of the regular season, but he gave up just three in all of September. Meanwhile, Osuna has wobbled into October, lugging around a 5.40 ERA in his final 11 outings.
Edge: Rangers
Game 1 Starting Pitchers and Prediction
11 of 14
The Battle: Yovani Gallardo vs. David Price
David Price has been downright electric with the Blue Jays, as he reeled off a 9-1 record and a 2.30 ERA in 11 starts. In Game 1 of this series, it will be more of the same. Price throws seven shutout frames, putting the Blue Jays on track for a 1-0 advantage.
Yovani Gallardo gets the call opposite Price, and it's the righty who ends up taking the loss. Josh Donaldson provides the firepower, connecting on a three-run bomb in his second at-bat. The Blue Jays then tack on a couple of insurance runs late and cruise to a big win in the first game of the series.
Game 1 Prediction: Blue Jays Win 5-0
Game 2 Starting Pitchers and Prediction
12 of 14
The Battle: Cole Hamels vs. Marcus Stroman
Cole Hamels outduels Marcus Stroman in the second game of the series, and the Rangers escape Rogers Centre with a split.
For the Rangers, Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo prove to be the offensive heroes. Fielder goes deep in the first to put Texas in front 1-0. After the Blue Jays pull ahead 2-1, Choo gets the decisive hit, lashing a two-run double in the seventh. Hamels exits after seven, and Sam Dyson and Shawn Tolleson combine to shut the door on the Blue Jays.
Game 2 Prediction: Rangers Win 3-2
Game 3 Starting Pitchers and Prediction
13 of 14
The Battle: Derek Holland vs. Marco Estrada
The Blue Jays have made a habit of battering left-handed pitchers, as the squad led baseball in slugging percentage (.463) and OPS (.818) when facing southpaws.
That's bad news for Derek Holland, who gets torched in the first game at Globe Life Park. Homers from Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion highlight the offensive outburst for Toronto. The unheralded Marco Estrada (3.13 ERA in 2015) holds the Rangers in check, allowing three runs in six innings of work.
Game 3 Prediction: Blue Jays Win 8-3
Game 4 Starting Pitchers and Prediction
14 of 14
The Battle: Colby Lewis vs. R.A. Dickey
The Rangers have yet to say who will be starting Game 4, but opting for Colby Lewis over Martin Perez would be the logical move based on the Blue Jays' track record against lefties.
In what proves to be the clincher for Toronto, R.A. Dickey gets into trouble early. Josh Hamilton puts the Rangers ahead in the second with a three-run shot, and Colby Lewis lets in just two runs in six innings of work.
But in the seventh, Josh Donaldson provides the go-ahead two-run homer, as the Bringer of Rain sends the Blue Jays onto the AL Championship Series and wins the MVP Award for the opening round.
Game 4 Prediction: Blue Jays Win 5-3
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, MLB.com and FanGraphs. Starting pitching matchups courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
.png?w=480)
