Week 5 Waiver Wire: Stat Projections for Top Fantasy Pickups and Sleepers

Sometimes, going ahead and grabbing the trendy player pays off.

After a Week 3 performance in which he ran for 141 yards and three touchdowns, the fantasy football world was alight with praise for Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman.

Now, some might have been skeptical, considering rookie Tevin Coleman beat out Freeman for the starting job at the beginning of the season (only to get injured in Week 2), and Freeman was something of a dud last season averaging 3.8 yards per carry and scoring just twice.

Well, much to the doubters' chagrin, Freeman went off again in Week 4, racking up 68 yards and another three touchdowns in a win over Houston. As of Monday, he's owned in 89 percent of Yahoo Sports leagues, and expect that number to reach nearly 100 percent.

Now, Week 4 did see some other players put up unexpected totals that will make them the trendy new pickup. If you're not high up in the waiver-wire order, congratulations on a fine start to the fantasy football season, and here's to hoping the rest of your league is sleepwalking on the latest big pickups.

Here are the most-added players in ESPN and Yahoo Sports fantasy football leagues heading into Week 5. To account for the larger 12- and 14-team leagues, only players owned by less than 50 percent of teams will be included in the list (with some leeway for notable cases). Included in the table are stat projections for each player, followed by a closer look at the top pickups and a couple of sleepers to look out for in Week 5. 

Top ESPN Additions
Top Yahoo Additions
Player	% Owned	% Changed last 7 days	Week 5 Projections
Thomas Rawls, RB, Seattle	45.1	+44.8	25 yards or 75 yards*
Derek Carr, QB, Oakland	56.6	+36.8	215 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
Colts D/ST	53.7	+34.2	4 sacks, 3 turnovers, 17 points allowed vs. Houston
Michael Vick, QB, Pittsburgh	27.9	+27.4	250 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT; 50 RSH YDS
Ted Ginn Jr, WR, Carolina	32.3	+24	Bye
Marvin Jones, WR, Cincinnati	40.9	+21.5	4 REC, 50 YDS, 1 TD
Lance Dunbar	34.1	+18.1	N/A (injured)
Sebastian Janikowski, K, Oakland	34.1	+21	2 FGM, 2/2 XP
Blake Bortles, QB, Jacksonville	19.7	+11.9	275 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
Gary Barnidge, TE, Cleveland	11.0	+10.7	6 REC, 65 YDS
Player	% Owned	No. of Monday Adds	Week 5 Projections
Thomas Rawls, RB, Seattle	49	33,719	25 yards or 75 yards*
Willie Snead, WR, New Orleans	4	21,550	5 REC, 70 YDS
Ronnie Hillman, RB, Denver	35	20,772	14 CAR, 60 YDS, 1 TD; 1 REC, 5 YDS
Allen Hurns, WR, Jacksonville	19	19,903	6 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
Gary Barnidge, TE, Cleveland	10	19,513	6 REC, 65 YDS
Tavon Austin, WR, St. Louis	17	13,533	3 REC, 50 YDS; 3 CAR, 25 YDS, 1 TD
Leonard Hankerson, WR, Atlanta	19	11,556	7 REC, 90 YDS
Duke Johnson Jr, RB, Cleveland	31	11,247	8 CAR, 35 YDS; 5 REC, 50 YDS
Fred Jackson, RB, Seattle	10	10,990	4 CAR, 20 YDS; 1 REC, 10 YDS
Richard Rodgers, TE, Green Bay	17	7,075	6 REC, 50 YDS, 1 TD

Top Pickups

Thomas Rawls, RB, Seattle

John Froschauer/Associated Press

When it became clear that Marshawn Lynch would miss the Seattle Seahawks' Monday night clash with the Detroit Lions, Thomas Rawls became the epitome of a handcuff pickup. After all, Seattle's passing offense was hardly flourishing, and the Seahawks love to establish the ground game. 

Rawls would pick up just 48 yards on 17 carries. Not so great.

Fred Jackson was slightly more efficient coming out of the backfield, picking up 21 yards on just three carries. To make matters worse for Rawls' newfound fantasy owners (that don't already own Lynch), Beast Mode could be back for Week 5 against Cincinnati. 

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

“He wasn’t quite right,” head coach Pete Carroll said, per Seahawks.com's John Boyle. “His best day was today. He ran pretty well in pregame, but they did not think he could sustain through the game and come out healthy again the next week. So we’re hoping that by using patience here, that he’ll be ready to go this next week.” 

If Lynch is good to go, Rawls should be nowhere near a starting fantasy lineup, though he's still worth stashing in larger leagues. The Cincinnati Bengals have been pretty darn good against running backs, allowing 18.18 fantasy points per game, the 14th-toughest mark in the league, per Yahoo. Plus, the way the undefeated Bengals are playing, Seattle might find themselves having to pass and play catch-up on the road. 

Rawls' fantasy value is entirely dependent upon Lynch's availability. In either scenario, proceed with caution.

Projection: (with Lynch) 8 carries, 25 yards; (without Lynch) 20 carries, 70 yards

Derek Carr, QB, Oakland

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

If you still don't have Derek Carr on your fantasy team and you're in search of QB depth, now might be the time to pick him up. Sure, Oakland somehow managed to lose to the Chicago Bears last week, but Carr still managed to put in a halfway decent shift, throwing for 196 yards, two touchdowns and one interception.

That's not worthy of a start in most leagues, but overall, Carr has been quite good this season. He ranks ninth in total QBR (68.9), per ESPN.com, and has quickly established a great connection with rookie wide receiver Amari Cooper.

ESPN Stats and Info points out that it's been a few years since Oakland has had some real consistency at quarterback: 

Picking up Carr from the waivers is a good idea this week, as he should make for a fine fill-in quarterback or spot starter. Starting him this week, not such a great idea. 

Oakland has a home game against Denver in Week 5. The Broncos have been the toughest team in all of football for fantasy QBs, allowing just 8.12 points per game, per Yahoo Sports. The Broncos have already racked up 18 sacks, 6.5 of those coming from the terrifying twosome of DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller. 

In the secondary, Aqib Talib has two interceptions, and Chris Harris Jr. is a fine cover corner. Either player will be tough for Cooper to beat. 

Of course, if Denver gets out in front of Oakland, Carr should be throwing the ball quite a bit. He's only in his second year, though, so Denver should be able to force him into some key mistakes. If you have no one else, put in Carr this week. Other than that, wait until he gets a better matchup.

Projection: 215 yards, 2 TD,  2 INT

Gary Barnidge, TE, Cleveland

Denis Poroy/Associated Press

Finally, in his eighth season in the NFL, Gary Barnidge is having a moment, as the 30-year-old tight end has been a big part of the Browns offense the past two weeks. In Week 3 against Oakland, he racked up six catches for 105 yards and one touchdown. On Sunday against the San Diego Chargers, Barnidge picked up 75 yards and another score.

At 6'6" and 250 pounds, Barnidge is a massive target, although that could be said about quite a few of the effective pass-catching tight ends in the NFL. There appears to be an athlete in that frame, however. Check out his concentration and body control on this key fourth-quarter snag against San Diego, per the NFL's official Twitter account:

Quarterback Josh McCown has established a nice, easy rapport with the veteran, who praised his pass-catching ability after the loss to San Diego.

“What I’ve learned with Gary, and I saw this early in his career at Carolina, if he gets his hands on it, it’s probably a catch,” McCown said, via ClevelandBrowns.com's Andrew Gribble. “You just learn not to bet against him.”

So, Barnidge is trending up. Too bad he's running into a brick wall in Week 5 against Baltimore. The stingy Ravens have allowed an absurdly low 1.33 points per game to tight ends this season, far and away the best mark in the league, per Yahoo Sports.

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Now, Tyler Eifert did get a touchdown called back in Week 3, but even if the call went the Bengals' way, it would've been his only catch.

Cleveland can afford to ignore him, too, with a solid running game coming together with Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson, as well as long-range targets like wideout Travis Benjamin. Plus, it's not like Barnidge has a long track record of success. In Week 1, he caught just three passes. In Week 2, it was one catch for 17 yards.

Yahoo Sports' Brad Evans is right, now is not the time to pick up Barnidge to replace a blue-chipper: 

Instead, Barnidge is a TE2 this week against Baltimore, although with some decent upside. With McCown the presumed starter and two impressive weeks under his belt, Barnidge should still see a good amount of targets.

Baltimore is far more vulnerable to wide receivers—38.6 fantasy points per game allowed, second-worst in the league, per Yahoo Sports—so expect McCown to have more success downfield and to the flanks more often in Week 5.

Projections: 6 catches, 65 yards

Sleeper Potential

Richard Rodgers, TE, Green Bay

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

If you're in desperate need of a tight end and Barnidge isn't your cup of tea (or he's not available), it might be time to check out Green Bay's Richard Rodgers. 

The second-year tight end hasn't seen many targets this season, but he has caught two touchdowns and is the main tight end in Wisconsin with Andrew Quarless out for the foreseeable future with an MCL sprain.

Rodgers received some very nice praise from head coach Mike McCarthy after the win over San Francisco, per the team's official Twitter account: 

That sounds very much like a player who should see plenty of snaps in this offense (of course, it also means they need him to block). The Green Bay offense should bounce back after a somewhat sluggish performance against San Francisco in Week 4.

Considering he's owned in 17 percent of Yahoo leagues, he doesn't appear to be on many fantasy owners' radars. He's third on the Packers in receptions (13) and targets (17). With a tough game at home against St. Louis coming up, Aaron Rodgers could be passing the ball quite a bit.

With the Packers wide receiver corps banged up—Davante Adams is in "wait-and-see" mode with his ankle, per ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky, and Randall Cobb is still battling a nagging shoulder injury—the Rodgers-to-Rodgers connection isn't likely to slow down anytime soon.

Projection: 6 catches, 50 yards, 1 TD