Which 1-Win Teams Are Still Legitimate Playoff Contenders?

In case you haven’t noticed, it’s been a season of extremes so far when it comes to the NFL standings.

Four weeks in and 63 games played (the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans were off last weekend), we have five teams who have started 4-0 (six teams if the Patriots win at Dallas this Sunday), while there are a dozen clubs that have won just one game to date.

The onus here is on those one-win teams, a number of which face each other this Sunday. All told, eight 1-3 clubs will be involved in head-to-head encounters in Week 5.

So the task here is to evaluate just which of these 12 teams that have tasted victory only once in 2015 still have what it takes to make a playoff run. There are numerous factors we will use to prove our point that a sluggish start doesn’t mean your season is over.

In case you are wondering, we left out the lone winless team in the league this season in the 0-4 Detroit Lions. It’s nothing personal, but it’s worth mentioning that the 1992 San Diego Chargers are the lone example of a team reaching the playoffs after dropping its first four games of the season.

Baltimore Ravens: Yes

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Win-Loss Record: 1-3

Week 5: vs. Cleveland Browns (1-3)

Analysis

Watching the Baltimore Ravens drop their first three games this season was certainly a shock.

How surprising? It was the first time in the club's 20-year history.

Now this franchise is one of three clubs in 2015 (Chicago Bears and New Orleans Saints are the others) that looks to reach the postseason after a 0-3 start this season (the Detroit Lions are 0-4), something that hasn’t been done since the 1998 Buffalo Bills managed the feat.

"We know where we're at," said Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh to the Associated Press (via USA Today) following last week’s 23-20 overtime victory at Pittsburgh. "We know what we have to overcome. You can't get two until you get one. This one was a long time coming."

Perhaps the biggest key to this club's comeback is who's in control. Harbaugh has taken this team to the postseason six times in seven years and has yet to suffer through a losing campaign. Flacco is a proven playoff performer and has yet to miss a game since being drafted by the team in 2008. And led by veterans such as wide receiver Steve Smith, guard Marshal Yanda and outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil, there’s plenty of playoff experience and know-how here.

And if the Ravens can build on last week’s performance by the running game, there’s even more reason for optimism. Against the Steelers, running back Justin Forsett (150 yards) and Co. rolled up 191 yards on the ground. During their 0-3 start, Harbaugh’s club rushed for a combined 218 yards.

Chicago Bears: No

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Win-Loss Record: 1-3

Week 5: at Kansas City Chiefs (1-3)

Analysis

In the first slide of this piece, you’ll notice Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh mentioned that last week’s win over the Steelers, the team’s first of 2015, was “a long time coming.”

Can you imagine how the Chicago Bears felt after last Sunday’s victory over the Oakland Raiders?

Losers of their final five games in 2014 and off to a 0-3 start this season, there had to be quite the breezy sigh of relief in the Windy City as new head coach John Fox got his first victory with the franchise.

This season, a tough home loss to the Green Bay Packers was followed by humbling setbacks to the Arizona Cardinals (48-23) and Seattle Seahawks (26-0). However, the Bears come off a resilient 22-20 win over the improving Oakland Raiders, thanks to some clutch moments from much-maligned quarterback Jay Cutler.

The veteran signal-caller, who missed the team’s Week 3 loss at Seattle, is adjusting to life minus traded wideout Brandon Marshall and injured receiver Alshon Jeffery. But he’s found tight end Martellus Bennett when needed and the team has gotten plenty from running back Matt Forte, who has racked up an NFL-high 500 total yards from scrimmage in four games.

However, it’s the defense that still warrants concern, as the unit wound up dealing away linebackers Jared Allen and Jon Bostic to the Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots, respectively, roughly a week ago. Vic Fangio’s unit remains very much a work-in-progress. The Bears have allowed 10 touchdown passes in four games, and the pass rush managed only six sacks in those contests.

Fox and his team will be severely tested the next month or so as Chicago plays four of its next five games away from home. Good luck.

Cleveland Browns: No

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Win-Loss Record: 1-3

Week 5: at Baltimore Ravens (1-3)

Analysis

Is anyone really surprised that the Cleveland Browns are off to another rough start in terms of wins and losses.

Granted the team has played a lot better the last three weeks after being rolled by the New York Jets, 31-10, in the season opener.

A home victory over the Tennessee Titans enabled Mike Pettine’s club to even its record at 1-1. But narrow losses to the Oakland Raiders (27-20) and San Diego Chargers (30-27) have put the Browns in a hole once again.

While you can debate the play at quarterback and whether Josh McCown or Johnny Manziel is the right man for the job, the duo has combined for seven touchdown passes and six turnovers while being sacked 14 times. Led by wide receiver Travis Benjamin and tight end Gary Barnidge, the Browns have five players who have totaled at least 10 receptions this season.

Unfortunately for the defensive-oriented Pettine, the Browns have allowed the most total yards per game in the league this season to date. One year ago, this team ranked dead last in the NFL in rushing defense, and this year they’re 31st in the league in the same category. Cleveland’s defensive unit has already allowed 12 touchdowns—nine of those scores through the air.

And unless this team can rectify its defensive issues, it won’t matter who is playing quarterback.

This week, the Browns travel to Baltimore for the first of their divisional matchups this season. It’s the only time in their first eight games that they see one of their AFC North brethren. The real fun for this club begins in Week 9 when they play the first of four straight games within the division. It will be interesting to see if they are still in a position to be a playoff threat then.

Houston Texans: Yes

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Win-Loss Record: 1-3

Week 5: vs. Indianapolis Colts (2-2)

Analysis

This Thursday night at Houston, head coach Bill O’Brien and his 1-3 Texans have a great chance to make amends for a disappointing start when the Indianapolis Colts come to town.

At this stage, we are just not sure if the team’s longtime AFC South nemesis will be led by Andrew Luck or veteran Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback. The latter started in place of Luck last Sunday at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Colts managed to pull out a 16-13 overtime victory.

As for the Texans, we haven’t seen a lot of the kind of football that propelled them to a 9-7 record last season and a near-playoff appearance. Houston led the league with 34 takeaways in 2014, and after four games this year, they have forced only two turnovers. The defense has produced just six sacks in four games, with four of those coming from (who else?) defensive end J.J. Watt.

Due mainly to the absence of Pro Bowl running back Arian Foster, the league’s fifth-ranked running attack of a season ago is averaging just 99.8 yards per contest to date. Foster returned last week in the lopsided loss to the Atlanta Falcons and going forward, they will need plenty from him and second-year pro Alfred Blue.

Finally, the quarterback play has been underwhelming as neither Ryan Mallett nor Brian Hoyer is completing at least 55 percent of his passes. Despite the best efforts of wideout DeAndre Hopkins, Houston’s passing attack has disappointed.

Still, Foster's return and some sustained health by the talented performer should help. And if the Texans can get a rare win over the Colts on Thursday night (Indianapolis has won the last five meetings and 22 of the teams’ 26 encounters), they can put themselves back in the thick of a division in which no club owns a winning record after four weeks.

Jacksonville Jaguars: No

Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports

Win-Loss Record: 1-3

Week 5: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3)

Analysis

Are the Jacksonville Jaguars indeed an improved football team? It’s hard to tell after four games, one of which resulted in a 51-17 loss at Foxborough.

One thing that hasn’t gotten any better is the team’s play away from home. After opening the season with a pair of tilts at Jacksonville, the Jaguars will hit the road this Sunday for the third straight week as they make the short trip to Tampa. Gus Bradley’s team has lost 11 straight road games dating back to Week 13 of 2013.

As for improvement, you can see some statistical proof as this club is ranked 18th in both total offense and total defense. But those numbers haven’t necessarily translated into a lot of points. Jacksonville’s offensive unit has produced just six touchdowns, all via the air, courtesy of quarterback Blake Bortles. Rookie T.J. Yeldon has rushed for a team-high 259 yards and also caught 10 passes, but the ground attack has yet to find the end zone.

The wide-receiving tandem of Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson has combined for 37 catches, 644 yards and four scores. The defense has made some strides despite that long afternoon at New England, holding the team’s other three opponents to 20 points or less.

As far as the playoffs, Bradley’s club still has to learn to win consistently before it can think about making a legitimate postseason run.

Kansas City Chiefs: Yes

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Win-Loss Record: 1-3

Week 5: vs. Chicago Bears (1-3)

Analysis

One season ago, the Kansas City Chiefs opened the season with two losses and rebounded to win nine of their last 14 games. Still, a 9-7 record wasn’t enough to reach the playoffs in the AFC in 2014, and if Andy Reid’s squad is to get to at least nine wins this season, it will have to win eight of its last 12 contests.

These days, the Chiefs are not only riding a three-game losing streak, but they have also allowed 31 or more points in each of those setbacks. While outside linebacker Justin Houston and his pals have sacked opposing quarterbacks nine times in four games, those same signal-callers have combined to throw 11 touchdown passes and just two interceptions.

It’s been recent business as usual for the Kansas City offense.

Running back Jamaal Charles has totaled 457 total yards from scrimmage and already scored five of the team’s nine offensive touchdowns. Wide receiver Jeremy Maclin has put up decent numbers via 28 catches for 398 yards and has the team’s lone scoring reception by a wideout in the team’s last 20 games. But a team that committed only 17 turnovers all of last season has coughed up the ball seven times this year, although five of those miscues came in that heartbreaking Week 2 home loss to the Denver Broncos.

Still, this is a team with a solid head coach in Reid and too many standout players on both sides of the ball to go quietly. The Chiefs play three of their next four games at home and need to take advantage of that in a big way.

Miami Dolphins: No

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Win-Loss Record: 1-3

Week 5: Off

Analysis

Hey, Dan Campbell. New head coach of the Miami Dolphins. Any thoughts on the team tabbing you as the replacement for Joe Philbin, who was fired by the team on Monday?

“It was a little surreal,” said the team’s former head coach to Ken Belson of the New York Times. “It’s a little bit of, ‘Whoa, what are you getting into?’ But I’m ready for this. I can do this.”

The Dolphins are certainly hoping so, but is that false hope when it comes to their new sideline leader? Still in place are offensive coordinator Bill Lazor and defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle.

Miami is ranked 25th in the league in total offense and next-to-last in the NFL when it comes to rushing yards per game. On the other side of the ball, only two teams in the league have allowed more total yards per game. The Dolphins are giving up a disturbing 160.5 yards per game on the ground and have one sack in four contests this season.

To make matter worse, the team has not only lost three straight games but also all of them are conference losses. The back-to-back losses to the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets were home divisional setbacks.

There had better be a lot of soul searching for this team during the off week. By all accounts, this is a franchise with a lot of issues.

New Orleans Saints: No

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Win-Loss Record: 1-3

Week 5: at Philadelphia Eagles (1-3)

Analysis

We all knew that the New Orleans Saints would look a lot different this season. When you deal away performers the likes of tight end Jimmy Graham and left guard Ben Grubbs (both former Pro Bowlers), as well as the likes of young wideout Kenny Stills, there’s liable to be growing pains.

Those changes are manifested when your star quarterback misses a game and is obviously not at 100 percent. Drew Brees is completing 68.5 percent of his throws this year (in three games) but just doesn’t look like himself these days due to a shoulder issue. Fortunately, running back Mark Ingram appears to be building on last season’s Pro Bowl performance, leading the team with 204 yards in the ground and another 203 yards through the air, thanks to a team-high 22 receptions.

Still, this is a team that must get a lot more from its defense, which continues to be one of the league's more generous units. The Saints have surrendered at least 20 points in each of their four games, and Rob Ryan’s unit has allowed seven touchdown passes without picking off a pass this year to date.

Yes, there’s still time to turn this thing around. But it won’t be easy considering both the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers are both 4-0, while Sean Payton’s team has already dropped two games vs. divisional foes in 2015.

Philadelphia Eagles: Yes

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Win-Loss Record: 1-3

Week 5: vs. New Orleans Saints (1-3)

Analysis

It’s been a rough start for third-year head coach Chip Kelly and his revamped Philadelphia Eagles, who have struggled to put together a complete effort in any game this season.

Granted, two of the team’s three losses (to the Atlanta Falcons and Washington Redskins) have come by three points or less. But these Birds have already dug themselves a 0-2 hole within the division and a 0-3 mark in the conference.

So why do we feel that the last-place Eagles are capable of making a trip to the postseason? Because no team in the NFC East at the moment appears either capable or consistent enough to pull away from the field. And if Kelly’s team can’t get its act together in terms of the ground game (hello, DeMarco Murray), that will make Sam Bradford a more effective quarterback and the much-maligned Eagles defense a lot better.

Only two teams in the league are averaging fewer yards per game on the ground than the Eagles, who in Kelly’s first two seasons with the club ranked first and ninth, respectively, in rushing. And it’s still hard to fathom that Murray has run for 47 yards on 29 carries this year.

San Francisco 49ers: No

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Win-Loss Record: 1-3

Week 5: at New York Giants (2-2)

Analysis

If you’re head coach Jim Tomsula these days, you’re probably hoping your team is capable of just being competitive in place of vying for a playoff appearance.

Following a 20-3 Week 1 conquest of the visiting Minnesota Vikings, the San Francisco 49ers have been handled by at least 14 points in three straight setbacks. Losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers (43-18), Arizona Cardinals (47-7) and Green Bay Packers (17-3)—all playoff teams from 2014—have come by a combined 107-28 count.

With quarterback Colin Kaepernick off to a very rough start, committing six of the team’s seven turnovers, it’s easy to understand why the Niners are next-to-last in the league in total yards per game. The fifth-year signal-caller has thrown two touchdown passes while a pair of his five interceptions were returned for scores in the team’s Week 3 loss at Glendale. San Francisco has found itself behind the eight ball early in games, having been outscored a combined 29-0 in the first quarter this season.

After a good start against the Vikings, Eric Mangini’s defensive unit has allowed 12 offensive touchdowns in the team’s last three games. After picking off Teddy Bridgewater in the season opener, the 49ers have just one takeaway during the team’s current three-game losing streak.

Stranger things have happened, but it’s hard to see this club reversing its fortunes anytime soon. That’s unfortunate for a club that had just gotten used to winning once again. These days, the 49ers stick out like a very sore thumb in the extremely tough NFC West.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: No

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Win-Loss Record: 1-3

Week 5: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3)

Analysis

If the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have made any kind of strides in their second season under head coach Lovie Smith, the team’s home fanbase would never know it.

Under their latest sideline leader, the Bucs have won a total of three games, and none of those have come at Raymond James Stadium. In fact, this franchise has lost 11 straight home games, dating back to late in the 2013 season.

As far as what we have seen in any venue, rookie quarterback Jameis Winston is certainly experiencing his growing pains, and the Tampa defense just isn’t good enough to take up the slack. The former Florida State signal-caller has thrown six touchdown passes and run for another score but has offset that production with seven interceptions (two returned for touchdowns) and has committed eight of the team’s 10 turnovers. Winston comes off a four-interception performance in the team’s loss to the Carolina Panthers.

The good news is that running back Doug Martin is slowly starting to look like the performer that wowed us as a rookie in 2012. But there are simply too many holes to fill as this team still appears to be in rebuilding mode. And like the New Orleans Saints, the Bucs are looking up at the unbeaten Falcons and Panthers.

That’s a lot of climbing for a team and a quarterback still looking to find its legs.

Tennessee Titans: Yes

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Win-Loss Record: 1-2

Week 5: vs. Buffalo Bills (2-2)

Analysis

Yes, the Tennessee Titans have dropped two straight games following their eye-opening 42-14 road rout of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But opposed to a season ago in which Ken Whisenhunt’s club managed only two wins and were often less-than-competitive, there’s reason for optimism here.

One positive early on has been an improved running attack that has averaged 126 yards per game after three contests. This was a team in 2014 that ranked 26th in the league in this category, managing a mere 90.4 yards per game on the ground.

While the team has given up a combined 63 points the last two games, this is a defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest yards per game in the league. The pass rush has produced nine sacks in three games, and cornerback Perrish Cox has been a solid pickup.

Finally, there’s rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota, who has surprised us all to date. The 2014 Heisman Trophy winner has completed 62.9 percent of his throws for 833 yards and eight scores. He’s been sacked 12 times and committed four turnovers, but it may surprise some to know that he’s run just five times for 25 yards this season.

What will be very interesting is seeing how the Titans take advantage of a rare scheduling quirk. The team was off in Week 4 following that tough 35-33 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. But that was also the first of four consecutive home games for this club as Nashville prepares to host the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins and Atlanta Falcons the next three weeks.

Will the Titans have a season worth remembering? We may learn a lot by the end of October.

Unless otherwise noted, all player and team statistics come from Pro-Football-Reference.com and ESPN.com.