Fantasy Football Week 4: Last-Minute Advice for Setting Your Roster

My most recent attempt to get out of going to weddings and children's birthday parties has been to tell my wife I will be a game-time decision. It has yet to work for me, as I've played in each "game" so far, but in the NFL we really do find many scenarios where a specific player's availability remains truly in question. 

The timing of Marshawn Lynch's Monday game has his owners seeking a solution, as the fantasy superstar's status is truly in doubt this week. ESPN's Tania Ganguli reports Arian Foster's playing status won't be known until pregame warmups. 

What can we do in these troubling fantasy football times?

Please join us as we discuss some of the most important injury scenarios, undervalued commodities and streaming defenses with an eye on preparing for Week 4 of the fantasy football campaign.

Please feel free to share your lineup questions and recommendations in the comments section.

Waiver-Wire Wonders to Consider for Week 4 in Fantasy Football

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

With so many injuries already sweeping the league and with the first bye week upon us, spot-starting players from fantasy free agency is sometimes the only option in certain trying fantasy football scenarios.

In this section, we eye which widely available players—rostered in fewer than 50 percent of ESPN leagues—could potentially provide some free flex appeal this week. 

Lance Dunbar is Doing What We Thought C.J. Spiller Would

Dallas Cowboys change-of-pace back Lance Dunbar is on pace for 112 receptions and over 1,100 receiving yards. Dunbar has played on 39.7 percent of the Cowboys' offensive snaps this season, according to Football Outsiders, with just two fewer snaps than early-down option Joseph Randle. 

With Dunbar (available in nearly 70 percent of ESPN leagues) ideally built for Dallas' scaled-down, short-passing offense centered on catering to Brandon Weeden—the third-down back has been targeted on a team-high 36.4 percent of Weeden's passes this season—RB2 value in a PPR format is nearly promised as long as Tony Romo is sidelined.

Many touts, including me, thought the Saints' C.J. Spiller might thrive in a target-rich role this season, but so far it's Dunbar who is leading all backs in receptions and targets. 

Allen Hurns is Poised to Produce in Indy

As we discuss in greater detail in our bold predictions slide, Jacksonville's Allen Hurns is well positioned to produce a strong stat line versus the Colts' secondary on Sunday. You can find Hurns available for a few clicks in 90 percent of ESPN leagues. 

Ty Montgomery Could Enjoy Aaron Rodgers' Revenge Bid

Aaron Rodgers seems to have been driven by slights throughout his career. The 49ers famously passed on Rodgers in 2006 to go with Alex Smith as the top pick. After having drubbed Smith's Chiefs in Week 3, it's now time for Rodgers to remind the 49ers what they passed on. 

Which brings us to free shares of a rising tertiary target on the Packers who could thrive this week, as I wrote earlier this week: 

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Montgomery is owned in just over 5 percent of ESPN leagues, yet with a quarterback who can turn in a four-score day with the ease of a Lincoln impersonator, having cheap shares of the Packers' passing game has long proved profitable. See James Jones as a reference.

Consider the inviting upcoming matchup. The San Francisco 49ers are allowing 17.5 yards per reception to receivers, the highest allowance in football this season. As an athlete with strong explosion metrics and favorable physical comparisons to Larry Fitzgerald and Miles Austin, per MockDraftable, there might be more to Monty than just a one-week rental.

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Questionable Calls: Can We Trust Arian Foster and Marshawn Lynch in Week 4?

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Arian Foster's Owners Need to Follow His Lead

The Houston Chronicle's Dale Robertson reports Arian Foster's decision to play could be largely up to him: 

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The final call will be Foster's. It must be Foster's. "I don't know how to explain it," he said Friday. "It's just a feeling. You either know you can go or you can't. From two months ago having it off the bone to today, it feels great. So, yeah, I got a chance. It just depends on how it feels on Sunday."

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Optimism for Foster has grown as we head toward kickoff, and I'd deploy Foster in all fantasy lineups if he's deemed active. With the game being an early afternoon start, Foster's investors will have prior knowledge in time to have alternatives prepared in case Foster sits. 

The Falcons having allowed seven touchdowns to tailbacks already this season and the most fantasy points per game. Even if he were held to a touch count, Foster merits immediate usage given the high reward potential in this risk/reward play.

What to do with Andre Ellington and DeMarco Murray? 

NJ Advanced Media's Matt Lombardo reports DeMarco Murray is questionable for Week 4 in Washington, despite practicing this week. Suspect field conditions in the face of inclement weather could become a factor for Murray's availability and workload. 

Given that 31 percent of Sam Bradford's targets have gone to his tailbacks and high winds have tended to produce run-heavy game scripts, I'd be fine with using Murray as a low-end flex in PPR formats, but that's about it. With Ryan Mathews on the ascent and an inscrutable share of the workload, Murray's upside is capped even in this potentially run-heavy script.

As to Arizona's Andre Ellington, ESPN's Josh Weinfuss reports the diminutive dynamo is likely due to return this week from a knee injury, but will not reclaim starting duties from veteran Chris Johnson. Feel safe to sit Ellington out another week, at the least.

Marshawn Lynch's Owners Need to Have Thomas Rawls or Another Plan in Place

Last week we were wary of Lynch's availability and production potential given multiple soft-tissue ailments. This week, Pro Football Talk reports Lynch is truly a game-time decision on Monday and has an estimated "40 percent" chance of playing.

With rookie Thomas Rawls set to claim the majority of backfield work if the veteran back misses the first full game of his Seahawks' career, he makes for a strong DFS play and a valid flex asset in all redraft formats.

We profiled Rawls earlier this week, finding, "the Lions are 21st in defending the run this season, having allowed 336 rushing yards through three games. That sets Rawls up for a strong showing if Lynch sits. The Lions are also just one of three teams to have allowed at least 5 rushing touchdowns this year."

Alshon Jeffery's Absence Increases Martellus Bennett's Upside

ESPN's Jeff Dickerson reports the Bears' Alshon Jeffery will miss another game with a lingering calf injury. Martellus Bennett makes for a really intriguing DFS play versus a Raiders' defense allowing the most fantasy points to tight ends in the league. With Rob Gronkowksi on bye and Greg Olsen likely the chalk play, "Marty B" could be a valuable pivot player to consider in daily lineups. 

Bold Predictions: Jacksonville's Allen Hurns Goes Big in Indy

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Being bold requires a willingness to be wrong. I'm clearly willing. This week I'm projecting two young wideouts to enjoy big-play days, while one rookie running back breaks out.

Allen Hurns Tops 100 Yards in Indy

The Indianapolis Colts' cover corner Vontae Davis has been known to successfully shadow opposing top wideouts, with Jacksonville's Allen Robinson in line for the shadow treatment this week.

In avoiding Davis' coverage, receivers Eric Decker, Kendall Wright and Percy Harvin have all enjoyed strong fantasy outings in facing the Colts' secondary this season, averaging 90 receiving yards with each scoring once in their respective outings.

Hurns could similarly thrive with Robinson being traced all game. The undrafted Miami product is catching 73.3 percent of his targets, along with a healthy average depth of target of 12.93 yards, per ESPN. 

Robinson has hauled in just 40.7 percent of his targets on the season, allowing Hurns to actually average more receptions per route run (11.3 percent to 10.7). With a pace for just over 1,000 yards and at least 68 yards or five receptions in each of his three games this season, Hurns actually offers a respectable fantasy floor in addition to a big ceiling.

Hurns' career 14.1 yards-per-catch rate is second only to Jimmy Smith in team history for receivers with at least 60 receptions with the franchise, suggesting big-play upside could buoy a big day in facing a generous Colts' secondary save for Davis. 

In order to stay in the bold range, I'll project over 100 yards and a touchdown—coming on a big play—to define a top-15 fantasy outing from Hurns at the position this week. Even if I'm being a bit generous, I highly suggest trying Hurns as a cheap flyer in some tournament play for the daily gamers.

Amari Cooper is a Top-Five PPR Producer in Week 4

While rumors the Bears were posting adds on Craigslist looking for secondary help proved untrue, it's undeniably true Chicago has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to receivers in ESPN leagues this season. 

Cooper is 13th in the league in targets this season, per ESPN.com, and is on pace to tie Anquan Boldin's post-merger rookie record of 165 targets in 2003. With Derek Carr ranking in the top 8 in QBR and yards per dropback on the season, sustainable success appears realistic for this rare rookie. 

With the Bears in fire-sale mode, the Raiders are road favorites for the first time in three years, per Levi Damien of Silver & Black Pride. So with such a sweet setup, what makes endorsing Cooper so bold? Well, I'm predicting Cooper to have a top-five PPR outing this week in Chicago, including all skill position players. Over 150 yards and a score will see this rookie's awesome season paces leap into Odell Beckham territory after Week 4.

Melvin Gordon Finally Breaks Out for Fantasy Investors

While the use of "finally" seems dramatic given it's just Week 4, the fantasy crowd wants its points and it wants them now. As a first-round pick with awesome early-down upside and some truly impressive tape so far this season, Gordon is primed to produce a top-10 fantasy outing at the position this week. 

Eric Williams of ESPN's NFL Nation reports Gordon is eyeing an end zone visit this week:

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The rookie out of Wisconsin is itching to score his first NFL touchdown. “I’m hungry to score,” Gordon said this week. “I feel like everyone has scored but me.” Count on Gordon to score this week.

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As heavy home favorites, the Chargers have a healthy team point total hovering around 26 points this Week. Gordon's workload could top 20 touches, with the majority coming on early-down carries. With Danny Woodhead still consuming a valuable share of the work, especially goal-line duties, we're officially being bold in buying Gordon as a top option this week. 

Streaming of Vegas: Let the Desert Help with Fantasy Football Defenses

Matt York/Associated Press

How can we leverage the point projection system that Vegas and off-shore books produce each week in seeking streaming D/ST options? The foundation of the idea has us favoring favorites in games with point totals under 46.5. 

As I wrote in an earlier piece, "The average point total out of Vegas last season was 46.3 points per game. Using 46.5 as a benchmark for this strategic angle, I studied the results of fantasy defenses when favored in games with points totals under 46.5."

The results showed favorites in games below this threshold found themselves in the top 10 in ESPN fantasy leagues 49 percent of the time. A simple breakdown of the quadrants for this concept can be found below: 

• Favorites in games with a point total under 46.5: in the top 10 of fantasy D/ST units 49 percent.
• Favorites in games with a point total over 46.5: 38 percent top-10 rate. 
• Underdogs in games with a point total under 46.5: 29 percent top-10 rate. 
• Underdogs in games over a point total over 46.5: 21 percent top-10 rate. 

The suggested takeaway is to use this tool to eliminate some D/ST units from consideration given foreboding Vegas trends. 

We can also use these trends to help identify some potentially productive under-the-radar D/ST units for this week.

The Chargers' Defense Makes for a Strong Streaming Option

The combination of a game's point total and the point spread can help us find each team's specific expected point total in a given game. With the Chargers being favored by nine points with a game point total of 44.5 points in hosting the Browns, per Odds Shark, the Browns are then expected to produce right around 18 points in the game.

While 18 in an undoubtedly odd NFL score, you get the idea; the Browns' languid offense isn't expected to travel well. Tilted game flow could see the Browns forced to pass the ball more than their low-end personnel should, offering the Chargers' D/ST some strong streaming upside for this Sunday. 

Peruse this week's point totals and spreads on Odds Shark in preparation for Week 4 and share any takeaways you find in the comments section below. 

Could Both Defenses in the Washington vs. Philadelphia Game Prove Fantasy-Worthy?

With Hurricane Joaquin bearing down on the D.C. metro area and with a point spread under a field goal and the week's fourth-lowest point total, per Odds Shark, the Eagles vs. Redskins game could prove fruitful for both fantasy defenses. I'm particularly interested in the Eagles' side, as their special teams play and ball-hawking secondary offer a high ceiling in a game that could prove ugly for the passing offenses.

Windy Weather from Hurricane Joaquin Could Curb Passing Production

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

Weather around the league is generally calm this week, according to NFLWeather.com, save for the conditions set to afflict the Washington Redskins' home game versus the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday.

A study conducted by Advanced Football Analytics' Brian Burke on weather's effect on passing production in pro football revealed some telling and actionable information for fantasy investors.

While Burke found that extreme ends of the temperature spectrum in a given game can influence adjusted yards per pass attempt differently for road, home and indoor and outdoors teams to varying degrees (pun!), I found his research on the influence of wind particularly helpful for projecting potential fantasy outcomes:

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Teams are definitely leaning to the run on windy days, but the effect is only prominent in significantly windy conditions, greater than 15 mph. And even in winds of over 20 mph, offenses are trading only about 5 passes for runs in an entire game, or about 2-3 per team. 

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Hurricane Joaquin is expected to cause high winds in the Washington D.C. metro area this Sunday, with the wind for the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Redskins game projected to top 15 MPH. Some reports even suggest winds over 20 MPH, something that could very well curb the passing volume in this contest.

John Keim of ESPN reports the Redskins are prepared to limit their passing volume given the expected weather conditions:

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Heavy rain feeds into what the Redskins want to be: a run-dominant offense. "If it is what they say it is then there won’t be many balls in the air, that’s for sure," Redskins coach Jay Gruden said. "That is what we want to be. We want to be a physical football team."

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I would truly only want shares of the running games in this contest, especially in daily fantasy completion, while fading the passing assets. Jordan Matthews and Reed both remain starters given healthy respective target paces, but otherwise I'd wholly avoid these passing offenses.