Buy-Low, Sell-High on Top Upcoming MLB Free Agency, Trade Targets
The 2015 MLB postseason is about to begin, but it's never too early to look ahead to some of the situations that will play out throughout the offseason. Over the next few slides, we'll identify a handful of sell-high, buy-low transactions that teams need to consider this winter.
Baseball is the most fickle sport under the sun. It's extremely hard to predict which teams and players will be able to sustain high levels of production or bounce back from down years. Add in other variables like contracts, injuries and organizational status, and the decision-making process for front office executives becomes even harder.
That's why teams try to be pro-active in certain situations. By trading players at their peak, teams are able to achieve maximum value. The New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds will face that tough decision of whether or not to part with elite talent in Matt Harvey and Aroldis Chapman for the future of the team.
On the flip side, front offices can find bargains on the free-agent or trade markets by capitalizing on a player's subpar season. Injuries and inconsistent play affect production every year, but in some cases, a return to form isn't as far away as it appears. Players like Denard Span, Jeff Samardzija and Starlin Castro are prime examples of that scenario.
Let us know what you think about our selections in the comment section below. Would you trade Harvey or Chapman? Would disappointing seasons from Span, Samardzija or Castro scare you away? Who are some other sell-high, buy-low candidates?
Teams that tackle these situations in the appropriate manner are much more likely to experience sustained success. The following players may have complicated scenarios, but we'll attempt to decipher which way teams should view them this winter.
Buy-Low on Denard Span
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The Washington Nationals are finishing 2015 surrounded by a cloud of shame and disappointment, which should make for an interesting offseason in the Nation's capital.
One of those storylines to follow this winter will be the departure of outfielder Denard Span. In a contract year, Span played in just 61 games for the Nats due to various injuries. His ailing body never allowed him to regain his career-best level of play from a season ago.
“The toughest thing for me was just doing what I do. doing what this team pays me to do: being dynamic, being aggressive," Span told Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. "When I was on the field, that was difficult,” Span said. “The first game I came and got the standing ovation. That was the best worst feeling ever because the fans were happy I was back, but deep down I knew I couldn’t give them what I normally could bring to this game and this ball club."
Normally, a player whose game is predicated on his legs who's on the wrong side of 30 and already battling injuries isn't an ideal free-agent pickup. But in the right situation for the right team, Span can be a difference-maker next season.
After slashing .302/.355/.416 in a career year last season, he was on pace to exceed those totals in 2015. Span had already stolen 11 bases, hit five homers and posted almost identical walk and strikeout percentages in less than half a season before his final game.
Span figures to be much more affordable this winter. There's risk attached, but those concerns will also allow other teams to vie for his services. If he can return to full health in 2016, Span can still be one of the top table-setters in MLB.
Buy-Low on Jeff Samardzija
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Jeff Samardzija has played for three teams over the last three seasons. He'll likely make that four this winter when he heads to free agency, although he'll be in line for significantly less money than he seemed destined for before the season.
Samardzija has suffered through his worst season in the majors in 2015. In 32 starts, the right-hander has a 4.96 ERA and has seen his strikeout percentage fall out of the 20-percent range for the first time in his career.
Those problems aren't rooted in a decline in velocity. Samardzija still sits in the mid-90s and has reached as high as 97 mph this season. Rather, it's Samardzija's inability to get hitters to chase his out-pitches—particularly his splitter—that's hurt him this season.
The right-hander has enjoyed success with his splitter in his career, but has seen a significant decrease in K percentage using it in 2015. As Mike Podhorzer of FanGraphs notes, Samardzija is throwing his split in the strike zone over 36 percent of the time this season, which is up 12 percent from 2014. It's simple: more pitches up in the zone has led to his rapid decline in strikeout and ground-ball percentage.
That particular problem is mechanical and fixable. In fact, Samardzija alluded to his struggles keeping the ball down and some adjustments he's made down the stretch in a recent interview:
"Yeah, I mean, it was just a simple fix with my mechanics, with where my hands were, to tell you the truth," Samardzija told Doug Padilla of ESPN.com. "They were getting away from my body, which was making me get around the ball and missing left and right, and up in the zone mostly. So, I brought my hands a little tighter and it kept me a little more in line to the plate, and we started throwing more strikes, more quality strikes. I started hiding the ball a little better and we got what we got."
Since the change, Samardzija has given up just two earned runs in 16 innings over his last two starts. Two positive outings don't discredit a year's worth of data, but Samardzija may not be as broken as he appears.
Sell-High on Aroldis Chapman
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Back in July, I advocated hard for the Cincinnati Reds to trade All-Star closer Aroldis Chapman. As the Reds are making a late push to "earn" the coveted No. 1 draft pick in the 2016 draft, dealing the flame-throwing southpaw makes even more since now.
It comes down to this: Will Cincinnati be able to extend Chapman before he reaches free agency after the 2016 season? Considering how dominant he's been in his career thus far, those prospects seem bleak for a middle-market team.
Since debuting in 2010, Chapman has posted a career 2.19 ERA and saved 145 games. He has a career strikeout percentage over 40 percent and fanned over 50 percent of the batters he faced in 2014. Those are ridiculous numbers and cement Chapman as the most talented, if not the best, relief pitcher in baseball.
Closers are valuable commodities for contenders, but have little impact on losing teams. The Reds can't be worse in 2016 than they were this season, but with the St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs all in the NL Central, a forward-thinking mind-set with Chapman makes sense.
The Reds are reportedly open to dealing their standout closer, but want a treasure trove of prospects in return. The Boston Red Sox are a team that could be interested in his services:
"Chapman, who throws 100 miles per hour, could very well be available, but for a boatload of prospects," said Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. "The dilemma would be, save the prospects for an ace or use them on a closer? An ace could be acquired via free agency, as could back-end relief. Towers said it would take a blockbuster package."
Boston won't be Chapman's only suitor. He's a rare talent, but hard-throwing hurlers are more common in today's MLB than ever before. By dealing Chapman, Cincinnati will recoup significant value instead of watching him walk away for nothing after the season.
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Buy-Low on Starlin Castro
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Immensely talented and wildly inconsistent, Starlin Castro remains an enigma in his sixth major league season.
2015 has been a microcosm of Castro's career. He's slashing .269/.299/.380 and has a 0.9 WAR this season, and even lost his starting shortstop job to Addison Russell. But in typical Castro fashion, he's hitting .403 with five homers in September to madden the Chicago Cubs fanbase.
In a recent interview, Castro said that most of his problems stem from being too stubborn to change his approach.
"Castro has always been honest about his struggles but this is the first time he has admitted to being so stubborn," said Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com. "He closed up his stance a bit, moved closer to the plate and now is driving balls to left and left center. Previously, he would roll those pitches over to shortstop."
If Castro's comments to Rogers are any indication, he's beginning to mature. He's been around the league forever, but it's easy to forget he's still only 25 and under contract through 2020.
The ability is there—he's had three seasons with a wRC+ over 100 before his 25th birthday. If Castro can finally master the mental side of the game, there aren't many more talented middle infielders in baseball.
Castro's name has come up plenty in trade talks throughout the season. It's understandable why the Cubs and any potential team would be interested in a trade. The Cubs can afford to deal him due to Russell's presence, while potential suitors see a gifted player through the warts.
How Castro performs in October will obviously affect his value. But if the Cubs are willing to let him go this winter, there should be plenty of teams ready to do business.
Sell-High on Matt Harvey
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It may not be popular, but the New York Mets should think long and hard about maximizing their value on ace Matt Harvey this winter.
On paper, it seems foolish to trade away one of baseball's top young arms. Harvey boasts a career 2.57 ERA and has struck out over 24 percent of the batters he's faced since debuting in 2012. In his return from Tommy John surgery this season, the right-hander has a 2.80 ERA in 28 starts.
But digging deeper, there're plenty of reasons why a Harvey blockbuster makes sense.
Dealing with Tommy John, although more common these days, still isn't a positive for a 26-year-old. The injury has already affected Harvey this season, as he's been required to deal with an innings limit down the stretch. Harvey is also a Scott Boras client, meaning he's like to test free agency in pursuit of a huge payday come 2019.
While those factors could definitely play into the Mets thinking, a loaded young staff may be the determining factor. As Ken Davidoff of the New York Post wrote earlier this month, the Mets have a fantastic future rotation with or without Harvey.
"The Mets should go through on this because they have stockpiled enough starting pitching to envision perennial competition without Harvey. Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, Jon Niese and Noah Syndergaard fronting a rotation to kick off 2016, with Zack Wheeler working to return midseason? Yup, that’d work … assuming the Mets score runs more like August and September and less like April through July.
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By trading Harvey this offseason, potential suitors will have three full seasons of his services. Harvey's value will only diminish the longer the Mets wait, which is why avoiding all of the risk that's associated with him has become a realistic option.
Stats courtesy of FanGraphs and accurate as of Oct. 3.
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