Breaking Down the Race to Make the 2015 ATP World Tour Finals

The upcoming six weeks of men’s tennis will be a scramble for a large group of stars who are looking for wins and points to qualify for the 2015 ATP World Tour Finals. With only the top four players (Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka) guaranteed admission, there are still four slots remaining for a dozen hopeful players.

The ATP World Tour’s Race for London shows a tight points range within this clustered pack of players ranging from No. 5 Tomas Berdych’s 3,850 points to the 1,625 points garnered by the 16th player on this list, David Goffin. (sidenote: This unusual cluster is largely due to the incredible 12,785 points Djokovic has gained in 2015. Points have been scarcer for second-tier stars, so the margin between players is slight.)

Which players are the favorites to get in? Who must scramble and hope for chaos while he cashes in on a big title to leap ahead of the fray? After all, the London's WTF is the year-end showcase event with big prize money and recognition. It’s a chance to end the year as the one who closes the doors on 2015.

Remaining Favorites

Tomas Berdych, Kei Nishikori and Rafael Nadal occupy the fifth through seventh slots, 710-845 points ahead of eighth-place David Ferrer. It’s likely that all three of them will get in, but a couple of poor performances at Shanghai or Paris could drop them a few places and conceivably out of the running for London.

Berdych is playing as the No. 1 seed, chasing 250 points in Shenzhen, and he will be at Beijing’s level-500 tournament next week. His active consistency makes it all but certain that he will be one of the elite eight.

Nishikori is Tokyo’s defending champion, but after a poor close to his U.S. Open series including injuries and a first-round exit, he should be ready to seal things up at Masters 1000 venues Shanghai and Paris. However, if he is still banged up or showing too much rust, a couple of quick exits could put him in jeopardy.

Nadal seems comfortably situated in the seventh slot, and he has recently stated his determination to get back to being a major contender. He’s not only looking to move into the fifth slot for London, but he would love to get his ranking in position for better draws in 2016. Historically, the fall season has been his weakest period, so it would be a big surprise to see him win Beijing (with Djokovic in the draw) or one of the Masters tournaments.

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Race for Eighth

If one of the remaining favorites trips up, there will be two slots available for the rest of the pack hoping to close in on the scraps. Ferrer has long triumphed with WTF lotteries because he knows how to travel and compete hard wherever he goes. His schedule is as daunting as ever with his current performance in Malaysia and future stops at Beijing, level-500 Vienna, Valencia and the two Masters events. Unless he collapses from exhaustion, his volume of appearances should be enough to grab his points.

The outsiders who are looking to move into the top eight are Richard Gasquet, Kevin Anderson, John Isner and Milos Raonic. They are all clustered about 700-1,000 points behind Ferrer. Gasquet has had a terrific summer stretch and might be the player who could win his way into London, but the other three outsiders are all big servers who would figure to benefit from the fast conditions more than Gasquet.

Gasquet and Anderson are slated to play next week at Tokyo, while Isner and Raonic join the ranks at Beijing. Both venues are fairly balanced in their degrees of difficulty with Nishikori and Wawrinka in the former and Djokovic and Nadal in the latter.

Then there are the long shots, players who would need a couple of monster tournaments to bid for the eighth slot. Marin Cilic, Gilles Simon, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and David Goffin all need help with kind draws, rivals getting upset and hot tennis to win titles. For instance, Tsonga has 1,900 points and might actually have to win Shanghai and Paris to realistically have a shot at London.

Adam Hunger/Associated Press

Other Wrinkles

During the week of October 19-25, three tournaments could be a tipping point or an edge for the outsiders. Stockholm has Simon and Gasquet lining up for a 250-point title, Moscow is sitting on a tee for Marin Cilic and level-500 Vienna will feature Ferrer, Raonic, Isner, Anderson and Tsonga.

Ferrer has always been a savvy points collector, and it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see him become a turncoat and march into Russia’s easier bracket, only needing to upend Cilic in the opposite side of the bracket. It could be more profitable than the 500-point fool’s gold in Vienna.

The last week of October could also see another contender fly into Valencia where only Ferrer stands as the solid favorite. It’s either that or head into Basel’s indoor courts where home-country stars Federer and Wawrinka will be flanked by Nadal, Nishikori and Raonic. That’s a tough lineup.

And yet there could still be injuries or poor play that quickly turn some of the contenders into pretenders. That would allow a few of the favorites to coast into the clear.

Or it’s possible that Murray will withdraw from London to focus on getting rest and clay-court tune-ups in leading his country to a greater chance at winning the Davis Cup. It would be one more slot for someone like Gasquet or Raonic.

How will it all be sorted out? Right now it’s a tangled web, but soon enough the cream will rise to the top.