Predicting Fantasy Football's Hottest Waiver-Wire Names of NFL Week 4

If Rishard Matthews and Tyrod Taylor were the waiver wonders of the past few weeks of NFL action, which under-the-radar players will the fantasy marketplace be chasing after Week 4 concludes?

Even if the market isn't excited given a lack of touchdown appeal, Dallas Cowboys running back Lance Dunbar has already exceeded his career high in targets this season and is currently on pace to break the single-season record for receptions by a running back.

With the Pittsburgh Steelers allowing the second-most fantasy points to tight ends since the second half of last season (beginning with Week 9), could the Baltimore Ravens' Maxx Williams be the rare rookie tight end worth owning? 

It's never fun to endure early-season fantasy failures. Shout out to the manager who drafted Dez Bryant, Ben Roethlisberger and C.J. Anderson. While varying degrees of roster misfortune will hit most fantasy franchises throughout the season, we can most certainly save "lost" seasons with savvy management. 

You could be the proud owner of the next Samkon Gado or Drew Bennett legend. All it takes is proactive management and a willingness to churn the bottom of your roster.

The idea here is to identify players who are poised to produce in Week 4 that will garner increased attention as waiver-wire commodities at this time next week. Each one of the commodities we profile is still available in at least half of ESPN leagues, with several proving wholly ignored on the marketplace.

As always, please share any names and numbers in the comments section that interest you as under-the-radar assets heading into the weekend of NFL action.

With Brandon Weeden Under Center, Lance Dunbar on Pace for 112 Catches

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The picture above is not altered, Lance Dunbar actually played the Atlanta Falcons by himself in Week 3, thus resulting in the home loss for Dallas. Jokes aside, Dunbar was a busy man this past Sunday, hauling in 10 receptions for 100 yards.

With Dallas rotating personnel for passing downs, Dunbar has played on 39.7 percent of the Cowboys' offensive snaps this season, according to Football Outsiders. Lead early-down back Joseph Randle, by comparison, has played on 40.7 percent of the team's snaps—just two more snaps than Dunbar so far.

Given such a steady presence and the massive target void left in the wake of Dez Bryant's injury, Dunbar is on pace for 112 receptions and over 1,100 yards receiving given his current usage and production rates.

We certainly don't expect Dunbar to actually challenge Matt Forte's record-setting 102 receptions by a running back last season. Yet the fact Dunbar has consumed a team-leading 36.4 percent of Brandon Weeden's throws so far—he has hauled in all 12 of Weeden's targets toward him this season—suggests achieving volume and efficiency won't be an issue as long as Tony Romo is sidelined.

Dunbar is still available in over 80 percent of ESPN leagues. Without a production pedigree to excite the market, Dunbar is currently 14th among backs in points per game in ESPN points-per-reception leagues, tied with Danny Woodhead and ahead of more reputable assets such as Giovani Bernard and Justin Forsett in per-game fantasy production.

Dunbar had 22 targets last season. He now has 23 this season. With a realistic shot at 70 receptions on a scaled-down Dallas offense, this third-down maven should be universally owned.

Increased Usage Should Lead to Increased Ownership for Devin Funchess

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Early in the fourth quarter of a tight battle with the New Orleans Saints in Week 3, Carolina Panther wide receiver Devin Funchess exposed his huge frame to make a meaningful catch over the middle for a vital first down. Not only did Funchess draw a personal foul from the Saints for unnecessary roughness after taking a big hit following the rousing reception, he also earned the praise of head coach Ron Rivera, as Max Henson of Panthers.com reports.

"It converted an important third down for us and kept the momentum going," Rivera said. "He took a big shot, and it was very important for Devin to make that kind of play in that kind of traffic and take that kind of hit. That’s just another step in his development."

Even as the big-framed rookie from Michigan is netting only 9.1 percent of Cam Newton's attempts on the young season, the sell here is for the raw receiver to see increased usage and trust going forward on a thin team depth chart.

With the wideout position being thinned by injuries and poor quarterback play throughout the league, I'm pursuing shares of Funchess where possible for the upside his potential target share offers. It is worth noting Funchess is owned in just 30 percent of ESPN leagues.

Newton developed a valuable rapport with Kelvin Benjamin last season, and while this path to production might take longer in this scenario, I do believe fantasy relevance is around the corner—or one big touchdown away—for Funchess.

Allen Hurns Is Set to Produce Flex-Worthy Fantasy Production in Week 4

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Jacksonville Jaguars wideout Allen Hurns is on pace for 58 receptions and 1,056 yards this season. While these aren't alarming numbers, they do offer some hope for the undrafted Miami product to enjoy a career campaign that is worthy of our attention.

Some positives to consider would be Blake Bortles completing 73.3 percent of his passes when targeting Hurns, along with a healthy average depth of target of 12.93 yards, per ESPN.

While Allen Robinson deservedly earns a good deal of hype from fantasy touts, he has caught a lowly 40.7 percent of his targets on the season, allowing Hurns to actually average more receptions per route run (11.3 percent to 10.7) than Robinson, despite being out-targeted by nearly double.

The pitch here isn't for enduring weekly value from Hurns, as fluid game script and just a 15 percent share of the team's targets will produce some weak box scores. Instead, we're suggesting you consider Hurns as a valuable plug-and-play asset given appropriate matchup metrics.

This week in Indianapolis, for example, will see Robinson net elite cover corner Vontae Davis, freeing Hurns to consume those valuable vertical targets against a generally suspect Colts secondary past Davis.

Owned in fewer than 7 percent of ESPN leagues, don't be surprised if Hurns turns in a top-24 fantasy performance at the position this Sunday.

At a Shallow Fantasy Position, Baltimore's Maxx Williams Could Gain Value

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Tight end is a shallow and ugly position to source production from past the top handful of trusted commodities. The history of rookie tight ends producing worthy fantasy totals is quite weak, as the position demands such a difficult transition from college given exotic blocking duties in addition to refining the NFL route tree as receivers. 

Maxx Williams likely isn't an exception. Realistically, the kid is going to struggle to produce a top-15 fantasy season among tight ends, even as the threshold for such a distinction doesn't require a great volume of production. Jared Cook was 15th among tight ends last season in standard ESPN fantasy scoring with just 52 receptions and three touchdowns. 

So where exactly is the part where I say nice things about Williams?

We can expect the rookie to see increased snaps and usage with fellow TE Crockett Gillmore out with an injury, according to Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun. Williams was second on the team with seven targets in Week 3, netting a target on seven of 32 routes run. This healthy 30 percent target-per-route rate suggests signal-caller Joe Flacco immediately looked to Williams after Gillmore's injury.

In what amounts to a vanilla passing offense focused on the ageless Steve Smith Sr., Williams could be plenty busy Thursday night when facing a reeling Steelers secondary on a short week. The Steelers have allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends since the second half of last season.

So even for the streaming crowd, or the "Gronkonians" who are without their leader this weekend, Williams (owned in just 2.2 percent of ESPN leagues) makes for an interesting player to pluck before he becomes a popular waiver addition.

Could Ty Montgomery Be Aaron Rodgers' Next Breakout Candidate?

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A burgeoning role with Davante Adams sidelined could offer Ty Montgomery a valuable share of the Packers passing game. While Adams was supposed to shine when afforded more work in the absence of Jordy Nelson, inefficient results and injuries have curbed the enthusiasm for the second-year wideout. 

Montgomery remains merely a flier at the position, but with the potential for a 15 percent share of Aaron Rodgers' offense, cheap shares of the rookie receiver could prove wise down the line, or even the immediate future. 

Montgomery is owned in just over 5 percent of ESPN leagues, yet with a quarterback who can turn in a four-score day with the ease of a Lincoln impersonator, having cheap shares of the Packers' passing game has long proved profitable. See James Jones as a reference.

Consider the inviting upcoming matchup. The San Francisco 49ers are allowing 17.5 yards per reception to receivers, the highest allowance in football this season. As an athlete with strong explosion metrics and favorable physical comparisons to Larry Fitzgerald and Miles Austin, per MockDraftable, there might be more to Monty than just a one-week rental.

Marshawn Lynch's Injury Could Make Thomas Rawls a Top Handcuff Commodity

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Thomas Rawls' candidacy as a waiver-wire asset isn't exactly news, yet the market is still sleeping on his services, as he's still available in over 85 percent of ESPN leagues.

With Marshawn Lynch ailing and Rawls netting the majority share of backfield work over Fred Jackson last week, the undrafted rookie makes for a compelling spot start at the flex position. ESPN.com's Sheil Kapadia recently reported on Rawls' rare rushing success in Week 3:

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Thomas Rawls averaged 2.94 yards before contact, according to ESPN Stats and Information. That was ninth best among running backs in Week 3. To put it into better perspective, Lynch has averaged 1.50 yards before contact through three games; that ranks 42nd. And finally, Rawls showed good vision and physicality. There were multiple times where he cut back or bounced runs to the outside for big gains. Rawls' average of 3.56 yards after contact was the second most of any running back in a single game this season (among those with at least 15 carries). Whether it's Lynch or Rawls against the Lions in Week 4, it'll be interesting to see if the run game can continue to build momentum.

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The Lions are 21st in defending the run this season, having allowed 336 yards through three games. That sets Rawls up for a strong showing if Lynch sits. The Lions are also just one of three teams to have allowed at least five rushing touchdowns this year.

With multiple Seahawks beat writers suggesting Rawls is indeed the true rushing understudy in this offense, he's become a must-own for Lynch investors and an interesting asset if he's the starter versus a reeling Lions defense.

All ownership percentages courtesy of ESPN.