Texans vs. Falcons: Full Houston Week 4 Preview
On paper, this week's matchup with the Atlanta Falcons looked like a very winnable game for the Houston Texans when the NFL released its schedule back in April.
However, the Falcons are playing above expectations with a scorching-hot offense, which is just another example of why predicting game-by-game wins and losses in April is a waste of time.
It's fun, but also inaccurate.
The Falcons are obviously (and fairly) favored to win this game, so if that happens, what's the fallout?
By itself, losing a game to an NFC team like Atlanta wouldn't be the end of the world, since there aren't any potential tiebreaker scenarios involved, but with Jacksonville and Indianapolis playing each other this week, a loss would cause the Texans to fall into a tie for last place in the division.
Tennessee is off this week and would be in second place, based on winning percentage with this scenario.
Going with the favored outcomes for Week 4 and Week 5—the Colts beat the Jaguars, the Falcons beat the Texans and then the Colts beat the Texans in Week 5—the Texans would be 1-4, two games behind the Colts, with their chances of owning the tiebreaker over them on life support.
The Texans are still "0-for-their-franchise-history" at Indianapolis, so getting a game back later is unlikely.
It's too early in the season to call any game a "must win," but not many teams overcome 1-4 starts to make the playoffs; especially teams without a great quarterback to lean on.
The Houston Oilers pulled off that feat in 1993, but Ryan Mallett is more Cody Carlson than Warren Moon.
Week 3 Results and Recap
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For the first time this season, the Houston Texans executed their formula for winning games by playing great defense and running the ball effectively. Holding an opponent to a 1-for-12 conversion rate on third down and running the ball for close to 200 yards like the Texans did against Tampa Bay will win you a lot of football games.
The play of Alfred Blue got a lot of attention, with his 139 rushing yards, but the improved play of the previously maligned offensive line deserves credit as well.
"Offensive line working. Aboushi and Jones working the double team to get to LB. Blue goes to work. #Texans pic.twitter.com/EUsCLqLncR
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 30, 2015 "
"Look at the push Newton, Brooks and Jones get here. Completely wash the Dline. Pancakes served up. #Texans pic.twitter.com/xi8NU8p7Uj
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 30, 2015"
Blue's decisiveness and burst through the hole looked better against Tampa Bay than we've seen previously. Too often in the past, he'd slow down and dance a bit as he reached the line, but Blue consistently made one cut and got up the field against the Buccaneers.
A few of the non-offensive lineman like tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz and fullback Jay Prosch made some great blocks as well. If Coach O'Brien finds a package or scheme he feels comfortable with that can use the blocking talent of both players at once, it would help out the offensive line a great deal.
"CJF and Clark seal off the edge getting the LB. Short corner for a big run. #Texans pic.twitter.com/3AvG30nSkv
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 30, 2015 "
"Prosch cleaning up on the lead block here. They have some room here. #Texans pic.twitter.com/uJ04iN49Ux
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 30, 2015"
Fiedorowicz finished the game with the second-highest run-block rating on the team—Derek Newton was first—from Pro Football Focus.
In the passing game, Ryan Mallett had some ups and downs but made some very smart throws that you don't usually see from a quarterback making just his fourth career start.
The throw shown below may have looked inaccurate at first glance, but by throwing the pass low and behind, he actually protected the receiver from the charging safety. If Mallett had led that pass up the field at chest height, they might still be picking pieces of Cecil Shorts out of the new turf at NRG Stadium:
"Mallett and Shorts getting it together. Finds Shorts in the void. #Texans pic.twitter.com/ADry07CbbK
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 30, 2015"
Putting the pass where he did gave it the best chance of being completed while also protecting his receiver from taking a monster hit.
One of the things Mallett will need to work on going forward has to do with his recognition of underneath coverage. He only threw one interception against Tampa Bay but could have had a couple more if their linebackers didn't drop passes thrown their way.
"Mallett living dangerous. LB reading him the entire time. Jumps the route for a near INT. #Texans pic.twitter.com/Jbp3MhuXhZ
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 30, 2015"
Mallett took the bait too many times with linebackers dropping underneath routes that went over the middle after starting the play up close to the line of scrimmage.
"Mallett did this often. Throwing to the slot with defenders waiting. Lucky that LB can't catch missiles. #Texans pic.twitter.com/5s11jXW31E
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 30, 2015"
On defense, the Texans looked good against the run, as many expected with a healthy Brian Cushing and the addition of veteran nose tackle Vince Wilfork. Those two were a big reason why the Texans held Tampa Bay to just 2.8 yards per rushing attempt.
"Cush attacks the FB here. Stops the RB. WATCH how Vince presses the center off of him to clean up. #Texans pic.twitter.com/KG4ACQdTPF
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 30, 2015"
Despite still not having a sack, Jadeveon Clowney continues to make other plays that aren't covered in the box score.
"Clowney working as the three-technique here. Dominates the guard and makes the play. #Texans pic.twitter.com/RihtPZFfoA
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 30, 2015 "
"Clowney would the good inside pash run move. Gets a piece of Winston. #Texans pic.twitter.com/gSRuF94WVj
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 30, 2015"
Clowney is getting close; the sacks will come soon.
J.J. Watt didn't record a sack for the first time since the Texans' 11th game last season against Cincinnati, but he still produced with three hits on the quarterback and three "stops," which led the team in both stats.
"Watt and Simon switch late. Bucs can't adjust. Watt goes to work. #Texans pic.twitter.com/raHvkyionD
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 30, 2015"
One of the mistakes Tampa Bay made was running away from Watt, which will never make sense.
"Fair warning do not run zone away from Watt. He will run it down. #Texans pic.twitter.com/4QHAooehja
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 30, 2015"
Running at him doesn't guarantee success either, because he'll make plenty of plays that way as well, but he has a tendency to guess and try to jump through lanes instead of playing his assignment, which leads to many spectacular plays but can also be exploited by a smart offensive line.
If they're able to take his momentum when he jumps either direction and carry him out further, the running back should have a big hole where Watt vacated.
It would be much better to run a double-team at him with a power scheme or use his aggressiveness against him in zone, then let him chase down the back from behind. He's just too good at shedding that one-on-one block of a lineman running away from him and quickly tracking down the runner.
In the secondary, it was great to see Johnathan Joseph step up with a huge game. His speed and reaction time looked a step slow during their first two games this season, but with five pass breakups against Tampa Bay, it appears he's back.
"JJo making a nice break on the ball here. Plant and drive to get his hand in there. #Texans pic.twitter.com/FVtS6CXqhv
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 30, 2015"
The rookie Kevin Johnson is also starting to come on; he should be the Texans' best corner pretty quickly.
"Johnson sees the play. Hesitates but breaks up the pass. The rookie has some closing ability on the ball. #Texans pic.twitter.com/O2EB2wy2JH
— PDS (@PatDStat) September 30, 2015"
News and Notes
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Texans Replace Randy Bullock With Veteran Kicker Nick Novak
Former fifth-round pick Randy Bullock out of Texas A&M got the quick hook this week in favor of a veteran kicker who the team hopes will be more consistent.
"The #Texans are making a kicker change. They've released Randy Bullock and are adding kicker Nick Novak.
— Tania Ganguli (@taniaganguli) September 29, 2015"
Before being released, Bullock made five of his six field-goal attempts this year but made only three of his five extra-point attempts; the latter is likely what got him cut.
After a terrible 2013 season in which Bullock made just 13 of 22 kicks from beyond 40 yards, he rebounded to have a pretty good year in 2014.
In 2014, Bullock's field-goal percentage improved by just over 11 percent, and he tied for sixth with Adam Vinatieri in made field goals with 30.
Regardless of the longer distance after the new rules were put into place, missing two extra-point attempts in the first three games will get most kickers cut quickly.
With Novak the Texans get a kicker who was pretty consistent over the last three years. Novak finished in the top 10 in field-goal percentage in both 2012 and 2013 with a made percentage of over 90 percent.
Arian Foster Will Be A Game-Time Decision Sunday
"Arian Foster is a game-time decision, according to Bill O'Brien
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) September 30, 2015"
This might sound counterintuitive, but if there is even a fraction of doubt regarding Arian Foster's health, the Texans should hold him out against Atlanta.
The Texans' next game after Atlanta in Week 5 is much more important, considering the potential tiebreakers involved, so Indianapolis should be the priority.
It's seriously doubtful, given Foster's age and history with soft tissue injuries, that they would even consider playing him just four days later on that Thursday night game against the Colts if he plays this Sunday; this feels like an either/or proposition.
The Texans need Foster more for the final 12 games than one against Atlanta which carries no tiebreaker or weight in the division race, and they're likely to lose to the Falcons with or without him, so the smart play is to wait one more week with his return and save him for the more important game.
Texans Re-Sign Training Camp Cut Kourtnei Brown
One of the toughest cuts to watch during HBO's Hard Knocks this year was that of linebacker Kourtnei Brown. During a moment that had to make many fans feel uncomfortable, the whole world got to watch Brown be told of his release by general manager Rick Smith.
Fast-forward about four weeks, and Brown is back with the team not just as a member of the practice squad but as a full member of the 53-man roster.
"The #Texans have brought back Kourtnei Brown to the active roster.
— Tania Ganguli (@taniaganguli) September 30, 2015"
Despite making several plays including sacks and a pick-six, Brown was often the recipient of some tough coaching from linebackers coach Mike Vrabel.
Maybe the way Hard Knocks edited the show magnified something that wasn't as big in actuality, but it seemed that Vrabel was tougher on Brown than the others because he saw something in him that the linebacker wasn't showing on the field.
That's just a guess, but regardless, Brown will get another chance to prove himself to his hard-nosed position coach.
Latest Injury News
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| Jeff Adams | Knee | Injured Reserve |
| Ryan Griffin | Knee | Injured Reserve/DFR |
| Tom Savage | Shoulder | Injured Reserve |
| Reshard Cliett | Knee | Injured Reserve |
| David Quessenberry | Illness | Injured Reserve |
| Lonnie Ballentine | Knee | Out |
| Mike Mohamed | Foot | Injured Reserve |
| Arian Foster | Groin | Questionable |
| Xavier Su'a-Filo | Calf | Questionable |
| Duane Brown | Thumb | Probable |
Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com
".@HoustonTexans Wednesday Practice Report: pic.twitter.com/sv6lwkJTCT
— Texans PR (@TexansPR) September 30, 2015"
Duane Brown and Arian Foster are the obvious ones to watch over the next several days.
That's not to say that the other players wouldn't make positive contributions, but Brown and Foster are clearly the two most important players currently dealing with lingering injuries.
Before the debut performance of guard Oday Aboushi, the absence of Xavier Su'a-Filo might have been important, but the difference in talent there might not be that great after all.
Even without Brown, Foster or Su'a-Filo on the active roster last week, the Texans still managed to run for a season-high 186 yards, with 139 of those coming from second-year running back Alfred Blue.
The uptick in production can partly be attributed to the awful run defense they were facing—Tampa Bay ranks 30th in run defense according to Pro Football Focus—but giving more snaps to fullback Jay Prosch and better decisiveness and burst from Blue also deserve credit.
Atlanta's run defense this season has been better than the Texans' last opponents with a perfectly average rating of 0.0—ranked 21st on Pro Football Focus—so they should provide a better test than the Buccaneers did last week.
Regardless of rankings or grades, we all know that the Texans offense will need to run the ball well to play keep-away from the Falcons' great passing attack, so getting Brown and Foster back would provide a huge boost to their odds of winning.
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Key Matchups
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Can Anyone Stop Julio Jones?
The fifth-year receiver out of Alabama is on track for the best season of his young career.
At his current pace, Jones would finish the 2015 season with 181 receptions for 2,346 receiving yards and 21 touchdowns; those numbers would be absurd even on a video game like Madden 16!
If Jones did reach those numbers, he would obliterate the single-season records for both receptions and receiving yards. Not surprisingly, he currently leads the league in both stats.
"On pace" stats after three weeks are obviously premature, and we shouldn't expect Jones to reach those numbers, but putting him in Kyle Shanahan's offense has created a monster on the field.
The Texans passing offense ranked first and fourth, respectively, in 2008 and 2009—the years Shanahan was their offensive coordinator. Over those two seasons, Andre Johnson had the best years of his career, with 100-plus receptions and over 1,500 yards receiving in both seasons.
Under Shanahan, Johnson also had his two best receiving touchdown years, with eight and nine, respectively.
Shanahan also oversaw the highest reception total of Santana Moss' career in 2010, the best year of Jabar Gaffney's career in all three major receiving stats in 2011 and Pierre Garcon's incredible 2013, when he led the league in receptions and had over 1,300 receiving yards.
The point being: Shanahan knows how to get his No. 1 target wide-open.
So who should defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel task with stopping the unstoppable? The answer can't be any one man, because Jones will torch every corner the Texans have if left in one-on-one coverage.
Instead, they should try to bracket Jones as much as possible with a corner over the top and either a safety or linebacker dropping underneath and shadowing his route, like they started doing late in the game last week against Tampa Bay.
That strategy isn't foolproof, but it's the only chance they have of slowing him down.
Blocking Vic Beasley
If the Texans aren't careful, Falcons linebacker/defensive end Vic Beasley will ruin their game plan; especially considering the multiple injuries impacting the starting offensive line.
For all the talk about the freakish athletic ability of Jadeveon Clowney during the 2014 draft, Beasley deserves to be in the same conversation after the numbers he posted at this year's NFL combine.
Beasley posted the top 40-yard dash time—4.53 seconds—the most reps in the bench press, the third-best vertical leap, third-best broad jump, fourth-best three-cone drill time and fourth-best 20-yard-shuttle time among all outside linebacker prospects.
He's an amazing athlete with a great first step who could cause big problems for the Texans offensive tackles.
So far this season Beasley has two sacks, one quarterback hit and three quarterback hurries and is the Falcons' top-rated pass-rusher by a wide margin, according to Pro Football Focus.
Matchup X-Factor
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Houston Texans X-Factor of the Week: Vince Wilfork
With the attention and focus that will be paid to the Falcons passing attack, the Texans won't be able to use a safety as an extra run defender very often.
Without being able to drop a safety down to help, the Texans front six or seven—depending if they're in base or a sub-package—will need to stop the run on its own for most of the game.
Veteran nose tackle Vince Wilfork has done a great job against the run this season and will have to keep that up against a Falcons run game that ran well out of 11-personnel packages last week against Dallas.
"11-personnel" just means there are three wide receivers on the field with one back and one tight end; the number refers to the number of backs and tight ends.
Most teams will put in a sub-package with an extra defensive back taking the place of a linebacker or lineman when they see the 11-personnel, so being able to run out of those formations can cause huge problems for a defense trying to match up to stop the pass.
Devonta Freeman ran for 141 yards and three touchdowns last week for the Falcons.
Wilfork is the Texans highest-ranked run defender by Pro Football Focus and will be counted on heavily to plug up holes against the Falcons.
If he's able to hold his ground while two-gapping or push the center into the backfield when blocked by one man, he will give the Texans a better chance to stop the run without safety help.
In relation to that, keeping a safety back will help them slow Julio Jones; it's a team game.
Prediction: Falcons 30, Texans 21
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The Houston Texans don't have enough firepower to keep up with the Atlanta Falcons in this game.
All three of the Texans' opponents so far this season have been teams that will likely be just average on offense and finish in the bottom half of the league in points scored and/or total yards gained.
So far this year, the Carolina Panthers, Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers respectively rank 16th, 22nd and 26th in total yards.
Despite not yet facing an explosive offense capable of "blowing them out of the building," so to speak, the Texans are still just 1-2 because they couldn't keep up with offensive juggernauts like the Chiefs and Panthers.
Of course, keeping up with any opponent will be difficult as long as the Texans continue to average just 18 points per game.
The Chiefs in particular were helped out by two Houston turnovers leading to very short touchdown drives, but more quarterback mistakes can't be ruled out, since it's only Ryan Mallett's fifth career start. Those turnovers were made by Brian Hoyer, but Mallett is not immune to making similar mistakes.
In their only road game so far this season, the Texans came out flat and looked unprepared for most of the game, so it's hard not to pick against them in this spot.
As the roster is currently constructed, the Texans aren't equipped to win many shootouts, which unfortunately is what it'll likely take to get a win in Atlanta this week.
Prediction: Falcons 30, Texans 21
Follow me on Twitter for more news and opinion on the Texans: @sackedbybmac
Credit to Patrick Starr of the site State of the Texans for the excellent video work on Twitter. Give him a follow @PatDStat on Twitter.
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