2015 MLB Award Race Odds Updates with Just Days to Go
For the likes of David Price, Zack Greinke, Jake Arrieta, Josh Donaldson and the rest of baseball's biggest stars, it's time to put the final touches on their 2015 MLB award resumes.
With just days to go in the season, we have one last opportunity to check in on all the races for the top individual honors.
As has been the case in the past, stats such as WAR, OPS, home runs, FIP, xFIP and ERA were the most crucial factors in determining which players have the best chance of snagging Rookie of the Year and Cy Young honors.
When it comes to awards such as Manager of the Year and MVP, the performance of each candidate's respective team was also a big part of the equation.
While nearly all the awards remain up for grabs as the season winds down, no race saw a more dramatic shift in its landscape than the battle of the America League Rookie of the Year—where a new standout took over as the odds-on favorite.
AL Comeback Player of the Year
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The Field
- Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees: 7-4
- Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles: 3-1
- Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles: 3-1
- Prince Fielder, Texas Rangers: 13-2
Alex Rodriguez remains in the top spot in this crowded field, but the veteran slugger is wobbling toward the finish line. The New York Yankees designated hitter clocks in with a .190 average in his last seven contests and hasn't connected on a home run since Sept. 15.
Manny Machado (.200 average and .360 slugging percentage) and Chris Davis (.111 average and .185 slugging percentage) also didn't do much to help themselves out in the hunt for this honor.
Prince Fielder was the only contender who saw his odds go up since we last checked in on the field. The 31-year-old posted a .379 average and a .655 slugging percentage in his past seven games for the Texas Rangers. Over the last 10 weeks, he has cracked five bombs and now has 23 long balls on the season.
Honorable Mention: Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians; Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees; Kendrys Morales, Kansas City Royals
NL Comeback Player of the Year
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The Field
- Matt Harvey, New York Mets: 1-1
- Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds: 1-1
There's no wrong choice here.
Matt Harvey now ranks No. 7 among National League starters in ERA (2.80) after his latest strong showing for the New York Mets on Saturday. The right-hander worked 6.2 innings and allowed two earned runs to the Cincinnati Reds to help the Mets clinch the NL East title.
"This is the best day of my baseball career by far," Harvey told Zach Braziller of the New York Post after the team secured its first division crown since 2006. "We're here to stay, we're here to do this more often. That's what we're about."
While Harvey has been dealing for the Mets, Joey Votto has been flat-out raking for the Reds. The first baseman hit .417 in his last seven games and has reached base in 46 consecutive contests. In the second half, Votto is the owner of a .372 average and a remarkable .549 OBP.
Honorable Mention: Brett Anderson, Los Angeles Dodgers; Jeff Francoeur, Philadelphia Phillies; Cameron Maybin, Atlanta Braves
AL Manager of the Year
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The Field
- Jeff Banister, Texas Rangers: 13-8
- A.J. Hinch, Houston Astros: 5-2
- Paul Molitor, Minnesota Twins: 4-1
- John Gibbons, Toronto Blue Jays: 11-2
It's no easy task to peg a front-runner for this award.
Not only is the field stacked with viable candidates, but the final decision will also come down to how the postseason race shakes out. And right now, that's still very much to be determined.
As was the case one week ago, Jeff Banister retains his perch, as his Texas Rangers are holding a two-and-a-half-game advantage over the Houston Astros in the AL West. A.J. Hinch's Houston squad did take two of three against the Rangers at home over the weekend, but the team has fallen out of the postseason picture.
Like Hinch, Paul Molitor is another skipper whose Manager of the Year hopes are linked to whether his upstart club can claim a postseason spot. The Minnesota Twins are 1.5 games back for the second wild card, but the rookie boss has already guided the Twins to the franchise's highest win total (81) since 2010.
John Gibbons, who has led the Toronto Blue Jays to the best record (91-65) in the AL, also continues to elbow his way into the conversation. The problem for Gibbons is that nearly all of the credit for the Jays' success has gone to Josh Donaldson and David Price and the general manager (Alex Anthopoulos) who acquired them.
Honorable Mention: Joe Girardi, New York Yankees; Ned Yost, Kansas City Royals
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NL Manager of the Year
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The Field
- Joe Maddon, Chicago Cubs: 7-4
- Terry Collins, New York Mets: 5-1
- Clint Hurdle, Pittsburgh Pirates: 10-1
- Mike Matheny, St. Louis Cardinals: 10-1
As is the case in the AL, this field is loaded with deserving skippers.
Joe Maddon tops the list, as he's already led the Chicago Cubs to a 19-game improvement in his first season in the dugout at Wrigley Field.
But it's worth remembering that as impressive as Maddon's work has been, his team is still in third place in the NL Central. Clint Hurdle, whose second-place Pittsburgh Pirates have tallied the second-most wins (95) in baseball, is easily one of the most underrated managers in the game.
Then there's Mike Matheny, who has the St. Louis Cardinals on the verge of a 100-win campaign despite a relentless onslaught of injuries. Since last checking in on this field a week ago, Carlos Martinez and Stephen Piscotty have both ended up in the trainer's room. And yet, the Cards have won four of six.
Based on preseason expectations, Terry Collins is the most unexpected inclusion in this field. But it's difficult to argue with the results on the diamond. With Collins calling the shots, the New York Mets are the champs of the NL East and on the way to October for the first time since 2006.
Honorable Mention: Bruce Bochy, San Francisco Giants; Chip Hale, Arizona Diamondbacks; Don Mattingly, Los Angeles Dodgers
AL Rookie of the Year
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The Field
- Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians: 6-5
- Carlos Correa, Houston Astros: 15-8
- Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins: 4-1
Last week, Francisco Lindor pulled even with Carlos Correa. This week, the Cleveland Indians rising star has claimed the outright lead.
Simply put, there's just no stopping him.
In his last seven games, the 21-year-old Puerto Rican is batting .357 with a .607 slugging percentage. To be fair, those are pretty much exactly the numbers he's been posting since the All-Star break. In 67 games following the Midsummer Classic, Lindor has cracked nine home runs and owns a .356 average and a .557 slugging percentage.
Thanks to that amazing run, Lindor now leads Correa in WAR (4.1 to 3.4), per the calculations of FanGraphs. While those shortstops battle it out for the top spot on the AL ROY ballot, Miguel Sano has been falling off the pace. The 22-year-old designated hitter has gone yard just once in his last 15 contests for the Minnesota Twins.
Honorable Mention: Billy Burns, Oakland Athletics; Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays; Devon Travis, Toronto Blue Jays
NL Rookie of the Year
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The Field
- Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs: 1-9
- Matt Duffy, San Francisco: 20-1
- Jung Ho Kang, Pittsburgh Pirates: 20-1
With October looming, Kris Bryant is showing no signs of slowing down.
In his last seven contests for the Chicago Cubs, the 23-year-old has logged a .357 average and a .536 slugging percentage. Bryant leads all rookies in home runs and OPS (.870). In terms of WAR (6.3), he is not only the leader among first-year players but the fifth-most valuable position player in the NL, per FanGraphs.
As Bryant continues to roll along, he's leaving the rest of the field in his dust. After a monster second half (.913 OPS), Jung Ho Kang is out for the season with a torn MCL and broken leg. Meanwhile, Matt Duffy has been relatively quiet in September (.674 OPS), as he closes out an impressive debut campaign with the San Francisco Giants.
Honorable Mention: Maikel Franco, Philadelphia Phillies; Randal Grichuk, St. Louis Cardinals; Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers; Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets
AL Cy Young Award
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The Field
- David Price, Toronto Blue Jays: 1-1
- Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros: 6-5
- Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics: 40-1
- Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox: 40-1
The AL Cy Young Award is up for grabs, as David Price and Dallas Keuchel each have just one start to go.
Price maintains a narrow lead, but the lefty didn't help himself out the last time he took the mound. On Saturday, the starter served up four earned runs in just five frames against the Tampa Bay Rays.
That outing marked the first time since July 28—when he was still a member of the Detroit Tigers—that Price has given up more than three earned runs.
Keuchel turned in a gem Sunday, as he piled up 10 strikeouts against the Texas Rangers and picked up his 19th win of the season. On the year, he is just behind Price (2.45 to 2.47) in ERA.
Sonny Gray, who is third in ERA (2.73), won't have the opportunity to add to his Cy Young resume. According to John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group, the Oakland Athletics have shut down the right-hander due to a hip injury. Gray's season ended with a disappointing stretch, as the 25-year-old ran up a 5.53 ERA in his final seven trips to the mound.
Like Gray, Chris Sale is on the periphery of this debate. The left-hander's 3.48 ERA doesn't exactly impress, but his 267 strikeouts (the most in the AL) do. Plus, the Chicago White Sox's ace leads the circuit in FIP (2.70) and XFIP (2.61).
Honorable Mention: Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays; Scott Kazmir, Houston Astros
NL Cy Young Award
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The Field
- Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers: 4-5
- Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs: 3-2
- Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers: 19-1
The newly minted NL Player of the Week, Jake Arrieta continues his relentless pursuit of Zack Greinke in the chase for this honor.
Since last checking in on the field, Arrieta made a single start for the Chicago Cubs. The right-hander was perfect through six innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday before ending his night with nine strikeouts in seven scoreless frames.
Dating back to the All-Star break, Arrieta is sporting a 0.80 ERA in 14 starts, which isn't just the best second-half ERA in the bigs but the lowest mark since 1916, per Baseball-Reference.com.
Greinke was no slouch in his most recent outing. The Los Angeles Dodgers righty dished out just two earned runs in seven innings on Monday against the San Francisco Giants. On the season, he still has the advantage in ERA (1.65 to 1.82) over Arrieta.
Courtesy of the duel between Greinke and Arrieta, Clayton Kershaw has been relegated to an afterthought in this conversation. That's unfortunate for the lefty, as he leads the majors in strikeouts (294), FIP (2.10), xFIP (2.16) and WAR (7.9), per FanGraphs.
Honorable Mention: Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates; Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
AL MVP Award
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The Field
- Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays: 1-2
- Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels: 2-1
Even after a big week from Mike Trout, Josh Donaldson maintains his edge in the race for the AL's most prestigious individual honor.
In his last seven games, Trout has been swinging at a clip of .320, as the Los Angeles Angels have claimed a half-game edge in the fight for the second wild card.
The center fielder has also been making his mark with his glove. On Saturday, Trout scaled the wall at the Big A to make an absurd home run-saving catch, as you can see in this MLB.com video.
But Donaldson had a pretty good week too.
On Sunday, the Toronto Blue Jays third baseman connected on his 41st home run, which just so happened to be a walk-off shot.
"He's dangerous. He's got that flair for the dramatic," Blue Jays manager John Gibbons said, per Jamie Ross and Bill Chastain of MLB.com. "He's done that so many times this year.
As Donaldson continues to rake, the Jays have passed the Kansas City Royals for the best record in the AL and are on track to secure home-field advantage in the Division and Championship Series.
Honorable Mention: Lorenzo Cain, Kansas City Royals; Nelson Cruz, Seattle Mariners; Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles; David Price, Toronto Blue Jays
NL MVP Award
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The Field
- Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals: 1-19
- Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates: 40-1
- Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs: 40-1
It's difficult to envision how anyone other than Bryce Harper wins this award.
The 22-year-old leads the world in WAR (9.7), and his 1.120 OPS is the highest mark by any big leaguer since Barry Bonds posted a staggering 1.422 OPS way back in 2004.
Last week, Andrew McCutchen of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Anthony Rizzo of the Chicago Cubs checked in as the most serious rivals to Harper, as both of those stars have been the most valuable everyday player on their October-bound clubs.
Meanwhile, Harper's Nats have been the game's biggest disappointment and have already been eliminated from the postseason. Still, there's just no way to ignore the incredible value that Harper's individual brilliance has provided Washington.
Honorable Mention: Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies; Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs; Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers; Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks; Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers; Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants; Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, MLB.com and FanGraphs.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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