2016 MLB Free Agents: Projecting Most Coveted Players Before Regular Season Ends
The 2015 MLB season finally reaches its conclusion Sunday. For 10 teams, the journey continues well into October. For the remaining 20, however, it's time to start formulating a plan that will help them unseat the aforementioned 10 a year from now.
A sizable portion of those teams will be looking to the free-agent market to address roster deficiencies that undid their 2015 campaign. While teams have gotten smarter about locking up their stars to long-term deals before they have a chance to hit free agency, this winter will see quite a few foundational players hitting the market.
The class is led by David Price, one of baseball's 10 best pitchers, and includes the likes of Johnny Cueto, Zack Greinke, Justin Upton and Jason Heyward. It also includes guys who would have headlined free-agent classes in years prior, most notably Yoenis Cespedes, Jordan Zimmermann and Alex Gordon. The following is a breakdown of the most notable players hitting the market and speculation on where they may wind up.
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David Price, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
When it comes to walk-year performances, it's hard to do much better than Price in 2015. The left-handed ace went 18-5 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, splitting the season between Detroit and Toronto. He managed to actually lower his numbers in most categories despite the midseason switch, going 9-1 in a Blue Jays uniform while helping push them to World Series contention.
Toronto is in an interesting spot with Price, who will be looking to settle down long-term this offseason after bouncing around the last two years. His contract demands will almost certainly start with making him the highest-paid pitcher in MLB history—or at the very least near that mark. It's unlikely a team will actually pay the Clayton Kershaw premium for Price, but we're looking at a deal that probably starts near $30 million per season.
Even as the Blue Jays willingly push their payroll near Yankee/Red Sox levels, plunking down $200ish million on a pitcher is a risky proposition. Any re-signing plan also assumes Price wants to stick in the Great White North over the long term, something he's been noncommittal about.
"I have no idea. You’re trying to get me in trouble," Price said of re-signing in Toronto in August, per Kristina Rutherford of Sportsnet. "I would say the same percent for every team. Well, I guess the Blue Jays would be ahead. It’s been awesome being here. I would definitely come back here if everything worked out the way we envisioned it."
The overwhelming likelihood here is that Price finds a home somewhere outside Toronto. The usual suspects—New York, Boston, Los Angeles, etc.—are going to be involved and have unlimited funds at their disposal. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported the Yankees are expected to go "hard" after Price this winter. Given their success rate when going all-in on a veteran, Price in pinstripes might be the smart bet.
Johnny Cueto, SP, Kansas City Royals
As a free-agent consolation prize, you could do a lot worse than Cueto. His story is the opposite of Price, as Cueto has struggled from the moment he arrived in Kansas City via a midseason trade. The longtime Reds ace has posted a 4.95 ERA and 3-7 record in 12 starts with the Royals, with things only getting worse as the campaign progressed.
It's to the point where most Royals fans are merely happy when an inning goes by without a home run allowed. Cueto has two starts with Kansas City where he's given up three-plus home runs after not having any since Aug. 21, 2010 prior to his arrival.
“Every contending team in baseball wanted him,” pitching coach Dave Eiland said, per Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post. “We were fortunate to get him. He knows what’s at stake. He knows what we’re after. He knows what we’re chasing. He knows what the goal is.”
Cueto also knows a large chunk of change is at stake. While he's still obviously the second-best pitcher on the market, potential destinations are watching his every pitch and wondering what's gone wrong. Elbow discomfort hampered him early in the season, and it's fair to wonder if there is something going on below the surface—even if Cueto keeps taking the mound.
At the very least, it's a situation worth monitoring as the bright lights of October come.
Jason Heyward, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Heyward never developed into the 30-homer guy he was billed at as a prospect. He's never going to become that guy. We have five seasons worth of data that puts him somewhere around the 15-homer plateau and one season where he went off for 27. Even the most metric-averse front office would acknowledge it's unlikely we see him get much past the 20 mark as he approaches his prime.
Still, Heyward's emerged as one of baseball's best all-around outfielders by combining a smart, patient approach at the plate with all-world defense. He's headed for his third five-plus-win season in the last four years, per FanGraphs' formula, and ranks among the 20-best everyday players in baseball for the second straight season.
“That’s his real strength—how many different ways he can help you win a game,” teammate Matt Holliday said, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “If you have a player who can help you win the game in many ways, he would be valuable in any era. Sure there was a time when guys were hitting 45 homers in the corner outfield spots. But they probably weren’t contributing in other ways that he does. I think his kind of player was valuable 15 years ago, it’s valuable now, and it might even be more tangible statistically than ever. Maybe his style of play gets more attention.”
Because of the more subtle ways Heyward affects the game, his contractual terms could range from eye-popping to under market value. The Cardinals are historically great at finding values and sticking to a plan; it's worth mentioning again this is the team that stuck with the vastly underrated Holliday while allowing Albert Pujols to walk.
Signing Heyward long-term could be a similar decision. St. Louis would be locking up a player in the middle of his prime with all-around skills that will erode slowly rather than overnight. Neither power- nor speed-dependent, Heyward should be the rare free agent who holds his value throughout his next contract barring injury.
Bet on the Cardinals keeping him.
Yoenis Cespedes, OF, New York Mets
Perhaps no one in baseball has done more to up his value than Cespedes, whose 56 games in New York were so good they generated MVP buzz. The slugging outfielder has posted a .286/.337/.604 slash line with 14 home runs and 44 RBI since his arrival, helping propel the Mets to an NL East championship and coming into his own as an all-around player.
Cespedes had been a bit of an enigma since his arrival in the majors, posting solid numbers as a rookie before tapering off. It's been a dream season in 2015, though, as he's hit for career highs across the board at the perfect time.
"What [Cespedes] is doing is amazing," Mets veteran David Wright said of his new teammate, per Dan Martin of the New York Post. "The way that he single-handedly got us going and in every situation where there's a big-time at-bat, he's up there. And more often than not, he's gotten a hit."
What's interesting is how willing teams will be to accept 2015 as the new normal for Cespedes. Looking at his three-season history, it's apparent that this season is much closer to an anomaly. His home run-to-fly-ball ratio is four percent better than it's ever been, his soft contact rate is around 14 percent after being at 18 percent for his entire career and he's hitting less fly balls than ever overall, per FanGraphs.
By the time Cespedes signs his next contract, he'll be heading into his age 30 season. Whoever signs him will be paying a premium for his 2015 numbers that may never show up again. Of the stars hitting the market this winter, Cespedes' contract may wind up being the riskiest.
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