NFL Predictions Week 4: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Projections

Incredibly, the NFL season is almost one-quarter gone. With three weeks in the books, division races are shaping up, teams are already getting bye-week breaks, and our all-over-the-map notions of good, bad and ugly are falling into place.

That said, we still have undefeated teams we don't really know are serious contenders. We have winless teams we still suspect might be good. We have great players who look shaky, shaky players who look great and a whole mess of uncertainty surrounding some of the league's premier franchises.

As it does every week, Bleacher Report's panel of eight NFL experts has sorted through the best and worst, brightest and dimmest, overrated and underrated to give you a definitively juried verdict on NFL Week 4's games, teams and players.

Busts and beasts, sleepers and studs, entertaining matchups and foregone conclusions: Bleacher Report's NFL experts have sorted out who's who and what's what—and by majority rule, tell you everything you need to know about what's coming up at the quarter pole of the NFL season.

Biggest Upset

Morry Gash/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Minnesota Vikings (+4.5) over Denver Broncos (six votes)

Peyton Manning has had to sprinkle an awful lot of his magic Omaha dust on the Broncos to keep them undefeated through three weeks, but our experts think he'll run out when he comes up against head coach Mike Zimmer and the Minnesota Vikings.

Through three games, the Vikings have the fifth-best scoring defense in football. They haven't been overwhelming in the sacks and interceptions departments but are tied for fourth in the NFL in yards-per-attempt allowed, per Pro-Football-Reference.com.

After laying an opening-week egg, the Vikings have looked like the contender they were supposed to be, handling the Detroit Lions and San Diego Chargers. Even better, tailback Adrian Peterson once again looks like the All Day stud we remember.

This big upset looks very possible, if not probable—especially if the Vikings catch a few of the breaks the Broncos have been catching.

Others receiving votes: Washington (+3) over Philadelphia Eagles (one vote), Tampa Bay (+3) over Carolina Panthers (one vote)

Biggest Blowout

Mike Roemer/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Green Bay Packers (-9.5) over San Francisco 49ers (five votes)

They say revenge is a dish best served cold, and this plate has been sitting on the table for years.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were tormented by Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers during former head coach Jim Harbaugh's tenure, with brutal playoff losses ending potential Super Bowl-winning seasons weeks early.

Now, the shoe is on the other foot—Harbaugh is gone and the Packers are ascendant—and if the Packers get their boots on the 49ers' throats, they'll surely show no mercy.

Two of our experts think Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts are going to work out their frustrations of the first few weeks on the Jacksonville Jaguars, who just got emphatically blown out by the New England Patriots.

NFL Analyst Brad Gagnon took the red-hot Cincinnati Bengals over the Kansas City Chiefs, who'll likely be dragging after a Monday Night Football embarrassment and subsequent short week of practice.

Others receiving votes: Indianapolis Colts over Jacksonville Jaguars (two votes), Cincinnati Bengals over Kansas City Chiefs (one vote)

Higher Total: New York Jets Sacks or Miami Dolphins Sacks?

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Expert Consensus Pick: New York Jets (seven votes)

In theory, this is a close call: Both the Jets and Dolphins made their already-strong defensive fronts even stronger this spring, and neither of their quarterbacks is playing mistake-free football.

The Jets, though, get a decisive edge for a few reasons.

One: For all their talent, neither the Jets nor the Dolphins defense is actually getting to the quarterback; both are in the bottom half of the NFL in sacks. However, while the Jets rank 21st with just four sacks in three games, the Dolphins' shockingly toothless pass rush has recorded just one—tied for last. 

Two: New York's quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick, hasn't been playing consistently great football—but he has been very hard to sack; his 1.7 percent sack rate ranks him fourth in the NFL, per Pro-Football-Reference.com. Tannehill's sack rate of 5.2 percent (18th) is almost three times higher! When Tannehill gets sacked three times as often as Fitzpatrick, it's hard to see the Dolphins outsacking the Jets.

Others receiving votes: Miami Dolphins (one vote)

Biggest Mismatch

Mike Roemer/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Aaron Rodgers vs. "the world"/San Francisco 49ers defense/49ers secondary (five votes)

The logic here is the same as with the Biggest Blowout slide: Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are playing lights-out football, and they have a big, giant ax to grind with the 49ers. After a shocking upset win in Week 1, the 49ers have been flayed by each of their last two opponents.

The result here is going to be bloody, with the NFL's No. 4 scoring offense going against its No. 31 scoring defense.

Two of our NFL experts got a little bit philosophical. NFL Analyst Gary Davenport tabbed the Cleveland Browns to crush "logic," and NFL Lead Writer Mike Tanier pitted "Oakland Raiders optimism" against "Chicago Bears pessimism."

Others receiving votes: Cleveland Browns vs. logic (one vote), New York Jets defensive line vs. Miami Dolphins offensive line (one vote), Oakland Raiders optimism vs. Chicago Bears pessimism (one vote)

Sleeper QB Performance

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Kirk Cousins, Washington (three votes)

OK, OK, we know. Kirk Cousins? "How," you all must be asking, "can Kirk Cousins be your choice for Sleeper QB Performance?" Bear with us.

Cousins looked especially poor last time we saw him, floundering against the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football. But a short week of prep is especially hard on a young quarterback who just recently ascended to the starting role, and his performance that night was the first time all year Pro Football Focus gave Cousins a negative grade.

Cousins has an unfortunate tendency to throw interceptions on sideline passes, underestimating the recovery speed of cornerbacks like the New York Giants' Prince Amukamara. Outside of that, though, Cousins has played solidly, completing 69.2 percent of his passes for a respectable 6.7 yards-per-attempt average.

Further, his completion rate, touchdown rate and interception rate are all better at home than on the road over his short career, per Pro-Football-Reference.com, and he played the best game of his career against last season's Philadelphia Eagles. 

With a long week to prepare, Cousins just might surprise the Eagles—and everyone outside our expert panel.

Others receiving votes: Brandon Weeden, Dallas Cowboys (two votes), Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings (one vote), Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders (one vote), Michael Vick, Pittsburgh Steelers (one vote)

More Passing Yards: Ryan Fitzpatrick or Ryan Tannehill?

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick (tie): Ryan Fitzpatrick (four votes), Ryan Tannehill (four votes)

The Jets and Dolphins face off in one of the most intriguing matchups of Week 4. While our experts were nearly unanimous in thinking the Jets pass rush would hit home far more often than the Dolphins, they're split right down the middle when it comes to which quarterback will actually throw for more yards.

The Jets secondary is rightly regarded as one of the most talented in the NFL and should be a tough matchup for Tannehill. That said, head coach Joe Philbin and offensive coordinator Bill Lazor have put the entire offense in Tannehill's hands; only Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford have attempted more passes than Tannehill through three games.

Even if Tannehill isn't moving the ball effectively, he may outdistance Fitzpatrick through sheer repetition.

On the other side of the ball, the loaded Dolphins front seven has made opposing quarterbacks sweat but not pay—it has the league's ninth-best Pro Football Focus pass-rushing grade yet only one sack.

If Fitzpatrick has full use of all his weapons—receiver Eric Decker missed Week 3 with a strained PCL—he should be able to challenge the Dolphins with intermediate routes. But will he connect deep often enough to outstrip Tannehill?

More Turnovers: Luke McCown or Brandon Weeden?

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Brandon Weeden (four votes)

Here comes the asterisk: Our experts were asked to pick a battle of backup quarterbacks, but New Orleans Saints No. 2 Luke McCown may or may not play. Drew Brees, struggling with a shoulder injury, will practice this week, head coach Sean Payton told the Associated Press (via the Dallas Morning News).

Brees has "done well" with rehab, Payton said, but the decision hasn't been made as to who'll play. Even if Brees plays, it's not as though he's entirely unfamiliar with interceptions; he's thrown two in two games so far.

Nevertheless, our expert panel came down very slightly on the side of Weeden, who threw one pick against the Atlanta Falcons in his lone start. One wag—NFL Analyst Gary Davenport—called it a push, expecting each player to hand it to the other team 11 times.

Others receiving votes: Luke McCown (three votes), Push: "11 each" (one vote)

Sleeper RB Performance

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Expert Consensus Pick: Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns (three votes)

Everybody loves a sleeper running back, and nearly every expert had his own this week. Still, the top vote-getter was Cleveland Browns tailback Isaiah Crowell, who has been held in check in two of three games. The Browns face the San Diego Chargers this Sunday, and per Pro-Football-Reference.com, the Chargers are tied for the second-worst per-carry run defense in the NFL.

NFL Analyst Brad Gagnon expounded:

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The Chargers had a bottom-10 run defense last year and have surrendered 4.9 yards per carry this season, making Gio Bernard and Ameer Abdullah look like studs. Maybe it's Crowell's turn. He did show some flashes last year and averaged 4.8 yards per carry in Week 2 against Tennessee. 

"

NFL Analyst Gary Davenport dissented, nominating the Houston Texans' Alfred Blue:

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It got lost in the Falcons' great second-half comeback against Dallas a week ago, but the Falcons are still having trouble (just as they did in 2014) stopping the run. That could pave the way for a big day from Blue, who gashed the Buccaneers for 139 yards in Week 3. Unless, of course, Arian Foster is back, in which case what I had meant to say was...

"

Others receiving votes: Frank Gore, Indianapolis Colts (two votes), Alfred Blue, Houston Texans (one vote), Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers (one vote), Chris Ivory, New York Jets (one vote)

Sleeper WR Performance

L.G. Patterson/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick (tie): Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks (three votes), Michael Crabtree, Oakland Raiders (three votes)

Our eight experts nearly found a way to be split three ways: Three cast votes for the Seattle Seahawks' Doug Baldwin and the Oakland Raiders' Michael Crabtree, while two voted for the San Diego Chargers' Stevie Johnson. 

Baldwin had a great day against the Packers in Week 2 (seven catches, 92 yards, one touchdown), but didn't follow it up in Week 3. Can he victimize Lions cornerback Darius Slay the way Denver Broncos receiver Demaryius Thomas did?

Crabtree, just like Baldwin, had a huge Week 2: He burned the Baltimore Ravens for nine catches, 111 yards and a touchdown. Like Baldwin, he had a quieter Week 3. Also like Baldwin, he has a favorable NFC North matchup this week: the Chicago Bears, who held the Seahawks back for most of one half before the dam burst in the second.

Stevie Johnson has been steadier, getting five or six targets in every game and catching nearly all of them; through three games he's racked up a quiet 14 catches for 173 yards and two touchdowns. That doesn't sound like a lot, but that's an eye-opening 16-game pace of 74 catches for 922 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Others receiving votes: Stevie Johnson, San Diego Chargers (two votes)

Sleeper TE Performance

Matt Marton/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Martellus Bennett, Chicago Bears (three votes)

Our panel has been loving what it's seen of Baltimore Ravens tight end Crockett Gillmore, but unfortunately, it won't see him Thursday night against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

With the 23-year-old having a short week to recover from a calf injury he suffered against the Bengals in Week 3, Ravens offensive coordinator Marc Trestman told ESPN.com's Jamison Hensley he expects the Ravens' other tight ends to step up "with Crockett being out."

In the meantime, Bears tight end Martellus Bennett is likely to continue his productive ways, even when nothing else on the Bears is working right. Broncos pass-catcher Owen Daniels has upside as Peyton Manning's top tight end, while the Lions' Eric Ebron keeps getting quality looks in disappointing team efforts.

Others receiving votes: Crockett Gillmore, Baltimore Ravens (three votes), Owen Daniels, Denver Broncos (one vote), Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions (one vote)

Best Defensive Performance

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Expert Consensus Pick: Arizona Cardinals (five votes)

The St. Louis Rams have the fifth-worst scoring offense through three weeks. The Arizona Cardinals have the third-best scoring defense through three weeks. They meet in Week 4.

It's not hard to see why five of our experts tabbed the Cardinals as being ready to put together Week 4's top defensive performance. They're simply playing really well—and the Rams simply aren't.

Two of our experts sided with the Seattle Seahawks, who always intimidate at home. Their victim—er, opponent—will be the Detroit Lions, whose loaded-with-firepower offense has been a dud so far this year.

As receiver Golden Tate told Detroit Sports 105.1, opposing defensive backs keep telling him after games they knew what routes he was going to run. "That's bad," as Tate put it, especially when the Lions are about to play the Legion of Boom.

Others receiving votes: Seattle Seahawks (two votes), Washington (one vote)

Over/Under: 12 Combined Pat O'Donnell and Marquette King Punts

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Expert Consensus Pick: Under (five votes)

Last week, Chicago Bears punter Pat O'Donnell made NFL history, per ESPN Stats and Info: Chicago became the first team since at least 1980 (and quite possibly earlier) to punt on every single one of its possessions. O'Donnell actually punted so often that he sprained his knee, per NFL Media's Rand Getlin.

It's unlikely O'Donnell punts 10 times in two straight weeks—but how many times will he punt? And combined with the offensively inconsistent Raiders, how many punts will we see altogether?

Given a theoretical line of 12, five of our experts took the under. Jimmy Clausen and company should be able to end at least a couple of drives in points (or at least turnovers!) against Oakland, and the Raiders should be able to get ample offense going against the Bears, who've traded away linebacker Jon Bostic and pass-rusher Jared Allen since their Week 3 loss to the Seahawks. 

Others receiving votes: Over (three votes)

Flop of the Week

Tom Gannam/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Michael Vick, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (four votes)

Michael Vick is one of the most talented men to ever step foot on an NFL field. Throughout his youth, the question was whether NFL coaches would ever be able to utilize that talent. Now, at the ripe old age of 35, Vick still can run and gun, but it's an open question whether he feels like utilizing that talent.

In relief of Ben Roethlisberger against a tough (and motivated) Ravens defense, all signs point toward a mailing-it-in Vick having a very bad night at the office.

That said, NFL Analyst Gary Davenport thinks there's an even surer bet to disappoint:

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You know things are going about as well as they usually do in Cleveland when TMZ is reporting on a potential schism between Browns players and Josh McCown. It appears that the only two people on Earth who think starting McCown is a good idea are Cleveland head coach Mike Pettine and McCown. OK, three—throw in McCown's mom. This is not going to end well.

"

Others receiving votes: Josh McCown, QB, Cleveland Browns (two votes), Rueben Randle, WR, New York Giants (two votes)