What Injury Comebacks Are Most Important to 2015 MLB Postseason Runs?
As the 2015 MLB playoff picture comes into focus, let's take a moment to identify several injured stars whose health will be determining factors in October.
Over the next few slides, we'll rank various postseason injury comebacks around the league in order of importance. What makes a player's return more important than another? Talent is an obvious factor, but aspects like position depth, leadership and production prior to injury will all be taken into account.
There is no shortage of compelling injury storylines to follow with just under a week left to play. Adam Wainwright, Yasiel Puig, Masahiro Tanaka, Troy Tulowitzki and a handful of other well-known players have various ailments to deal with in order to suit up when the postseason begins next week.
Let us know what you think in the comments section below. Which player on the list is the most important to his team? Which injured star is expendable in October? How effective can these players be coming off of extended time on the disabled list?
When players return from injury, there is often a bigger impact than on-the-field production. Let's dive into eight names that could potentially alter October's landscape.
8. Carlos Gomez, Houston Astros
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Houston Astros outfielder Carlos Gomez has been sidelined for most of September with a left intercostal strain, but he is nearing a return to the lineup.
“It’s the first time I’m going to hit BP in the field," Gomez told Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle. "If everything goes well I’m going to play. I’m not going to be 100 percent. I don’t think in two weeks or three weeks I’ll be 100 percent, but I think at 70 percent I can help do things and play the level that I can help to win games.”
There's no questioning Gomez's talent. From 2012 to 2014, the outfielder hit 66 homers, stole over 100 bases and ranked eighth in the major leagues in WAR. In 2015? Injuries or not, losing Gomez's .253/.315/.408 slash line is hardly a deal-breaker for the Astros.
Houston has come this far with George Springer, Colby Rasmus and Jake Marisnick manning the outfield. Springer (123 wRC+) and Rasmus (107 wRC+) are above replacement-level hitters, while Marisnick leads the team in defensive runs saved.
If healthy and productive, Gomez is a game-changer. Unfortunately, we haven't seen that version of the 29-year-old at all in 2015, which diminishes the impact of his return.
7. Yasiel Puig, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Yasiel Puig's budding superstardom has taken a detour in 2015, which may make the Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder expendable come October.
Puig, who has battled a hamstring injury in the second half, hasn't played a game since August. When he did suit up, the 24-year-old hit just .256 with a .324 on-base percentage. He also saw a dip in his walk rate and an increase in strikeout percentage.
Be that as it may, we're talking about a five-tool player a season ago. What gives? Well, Puig's injury-riddled campaign has coincided with quality seasons from a host of Los Angeles outfielders. Behind Joc Pederson, Andre Ethier, Scott Van Slyke and Carl Crawford, Dodgers outfielders rank sixth in baseball in WAR.
Puig's injury has opened up that classic can of worms: talent with warts, or reliable depth?
"Which, if nothing else, is to say it'll be interesting to see what the Dodgers do," Bleacher Report's Zachary Rymer wrote earlier this month. "The signs say Puig's recovery is going to leave them with a tough decision to make: the allure of Puig's talent, or the depth that's allowed them to survive just fine without it?"
Don Mattingly recently told Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times that Puig was unlikely to play in the NLDS, but he would not be shut down for the remainder of the year. Puig may be talented enough to carry L.A. through a playoff series, but the Dodgers should be just fine with their available options.
6. Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
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Adam Wainwright's remarkable return from a torn Achilles in April is nearly complete. The St. Louis Cardinals ace, who has pitched in simulated games leading up to the postseason, has been pleased with how he's felt.
Wainwright told Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch about his progression:
"It felt like me out there today, so that was incredibly uplifting. My leg feels great. My arm was solid, rebounded great. The crispness of pitches was much better. The finish and life of balls were much better. The hitters tell you that. When they’re not crisp and sharp, they go over the fence like they did the last time (Matt Adams homered on Wednesday). Today, no balls were really hit that hard.
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On paper, the Cardinals will be thrilled to get Wainwright back. The 34-year-old has a 3.12 ERA in 21 postseason appearances and posted a 20-win, 2.38-ERA season as recently as last season. Combine that with the sudden loss of Carlos Martinez, and Wainwright's return couldn't come at a better time.
However, Cardinals fans must be reasonable with their expectations. Wainwright won't be near his best and won't unseat Michael Wacha, John Lackey, Lance Lynn or Jaime Garcia in the postseason rotation. He'll likely be used in a relief capacity, which is an upgrade but a far cry from what St. Louis is used to getting from him.
Wainwright's return to the St. Louis roster will be as big of a mental boost as it is a physical one. He's an undisputed leader with postseason experience that will lift a young Cardinals team throughout October.
But the Cardinals still have the deepest pitching staff from top to bottom in baseball. Therefore, Wainwright's comeback is a luxury, not a necessity.
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5. Troy Tulowitzki, Toronto Blue Jays
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Since Toronto Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos made multiple significant moves at the trade deadline, the Jays have catapulted to the top of the American League East.
One of those acquisitions was All-Star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. While Toronto has played well since trading for the 30-year-old, he has actually struggled to find his way. Tulowitzki is hitting just .232 with five homers in 39 games with the Blue Jays.
Offensive struggles aren't the only thing Tulowitzki must overcome. He cracked his shoulder blade earlier this month and is attempting to return before the end of the season.
Anthopoulos talked to Jeff Simmons of Sportsnet.ca about Tulo's return timetable:
"People have talked about Baltimore, but I think that would be real early. I don’t know if it’s smart for us to let him get to that point, but we’ll see here in the next few days. I’m optimistic that (he’ll play) in Tampa at some point. Whether it’s the last two games or the last three, that could be the case. He could be back at that time.
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Tulowitzki is obviously an upgrade over Ryan Goins, but Goins has recorded eight defensive runs saved at shortstop in 2015. Offensively, Toronto can navigate through a playoff series with Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and the remainder of the top offense in MLB.
It would be foolish to say the Blue Jays are better off without Tulowitzki. But if Goins can provide Toronto with quality defense in his place, the offense can score enough to get to the World Series.
4. Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers
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Josh Hamilton started 2015 as a member of the Los Angeles Angels, but it looks like he'll finish the season in October with the Texas Rangers.
That is, if he can stay healthy. Hamilton recently returned to the lineup following a procedure to remove torn cartilage from his knee. The outfielder and manager Jeff Banister were pleased with his first game back over the weekend.
Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News provided further information on Hamilton's situation:
"Both Josh Hamilton and manager Jeff Banister said they were encouraged by the outfielder's seven-inning return to the field Saturday. Banister said his 'loose' plan is to use Hamilton against right-handed pitchers. The Rangers are scheduled to face Detroit right-hander Justin Verlander on Monday, then a pair of left-handers.
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Hamilton isn't the hitter he once was, but he's needed on a Texas roster with limited options. Shin-Soo Choo (.375 OBP) and Delino DeShields Jr. (24 SB) have established themselves as reliable outfielders, but Leonys Martin (injury), Will Venable (.194 BA) and Mike Napoli (minus-two DRS in 45 innings) have left a hole in the Texas lineup.
There's a chance Hamilton may not make much of an impact, but he's more likely to put together a solid October than any of the other options on the roster. That's why the 34-year-old lands higher on this list than more talented players like Gomez and Puig.
3. Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals
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While the St. Louis Cardinals were receiving good news on the Wainwright front, they were getting equally as bad news on Yadier Molina.
The All-Star catcher tore a ligament in his thumb last week and will miss the rest of the regular season. Molina was originally set to be evaluated after five to seven days, but the 33-year-old's status has worsened since.
Adding to St. Louis' headache is a lack of a dependable backup to play in his place. Tony Cruz's lifetime averages of .216/.260/.298 are well beneath Molina's .283/.336/.397 career slash line. Add on Molina's defensive wizardry, and it's clear to see the Cardinals are dealing with a huge loss.
Molina may be having a down season, but the St. Louis lineup isn't overflowing with formidable hitters. He's also a proven playoff commodity, hitting .290 in a whopping 86 career postseason games.
There's a chance Molina can return sometime in October, but he's already seen an unfavorable development in his recovery. If he can't go, there's no question that St. Louis' chances of reaching the World Series will take a tremendous blow.
2. Joe Smith and Huston Street, Los Angeles Angels
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Los Angeles Angels relievers Joe Smith and Huston Street may not be as well-known as other players on this list, but their injury comebacks are vital to the L.A. Angels' postseason success.
The Angels bullpen ranks 17th in MLB in ERA. Smith (3.71 ERA) and Street (3.18 ERA, 40 SV) were integral parts to an already-uninspiring collection of late-inning options.
Street's recent groin injury could be especially problematic considering Smith has been out of action since mid-September. He won't return in the regular season, but Street is optimistic about suiting up sometime in October if the Angels advance that far.
"The MRI results, I think, were very positive," Street told David Adler of MLB.com. "Probably not gonna be before the end of the season—that is unfortunate. If we get there, I'm gonna try to be back as soon as I possibly can."
Street's injury has put the pressure on Smith, who will likely assume the ninth-inning duties for L.A. as long as Street is on the shelf.
“I wanted to pitch before Huston got hurt,” Smith told Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times. “Now’s the time. Everything is on the line. I don’t want to sit here in the training room. I want to play. And if things keep moving in the right direction…we’re getting closer.”
No team is built to sustain losses to two of its top relief pitchers. That is especially true for L.A., considering the lack of overall depth in the bullpen to begin with. If Smith and Street aren't back together in October, the Angels will have a difficult time finishing off games.
1. Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees
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Of all the injury storylines, the status of Masahiro Tanaka's sore hamstring will have the most impact on a New York Yankees postseason run.
Tanaka tweaked his hamstring against the New York Mets on September 18 and hasn't pitched since. The right-hander is scheduled to take the mound Wednesday against the Boston Red Sox, but expect the Yankees to be cautious with his workload.
Yankees manager Joe Girardi told Grace Raynor of MLB.com that the team is indeed approaching Tanaka's situation with caution:
"That's something we have to decide on how he feels. I know everyone wants an answer, but it's really not that simple because of his value to us moving forward. It's something you have to weigh. Is it worth the risk maybe moving it up a day or two days if you need him, to what could possibly happen? It's a careful situation that we're trying to manage. I wish I knew, really.
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Tanaka has established himself as the ace of the New York staff. He's posted a 3.38 ERA in 23 starts, all while striking out over eight batters per nine innings this season. The 26-year-old has battled injuries throughout his young major league career, but when he's healthy, the Yankees don't have any better options.
That is particularly true in 2015. If the Yankees can get through the AL Wild Card Game, they'll field a postseason rotation of Tanaka, 21-year-old Luis Severino, the inconsistent CC Sabathia and Michael Pineda. Even with Tanaka, that rotation is full of risk. Can you imagine how it will look without him?
It's difficult to win in the postseason without a front-line pitcher performing at a high level. Because of that, Tanaka's health is vital to a Yankees team with a World Series-caliber offense.
Stats courtesy of FanGraphs and accurate as of Sept. 29.
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