Fantasy Football's Best Buy-Low Candidates Heading into Week 3

Perception shifts swiftly over these small, but loud, early samples of the NFL season. 

Here on September 24, the market is now wary and worried about Denver's C.J. Anderson less than a month after he was drafted 11th overall on average in ESPN leagues.

The idea of "buying low" is simple enough; it's merely the process of acquiring an asset while it is distressed. Last summer, I bought a '50s ranch in suburban Philadelphia that looked like it was fresh from the set of Mad Men—rife with a checkered carpeted kitchen and bright pink bathrooms. We've since renovated the home, but we definitely bought low. 

In fantasy football, a player's stock can become artificially depressed based on the recency bias of a small sample. Sometimes, a player's stock should be rightfully deflated relative to recent pricing given what could be telling shifts in that player's usage or upside potential. In other moments, depressed pricing can open up a massive window for profit, as the market might just be too down on a pink bathroom to appreciate the potential some cost-effective shifts can promote.

For this piece, we've evaluated five different scenarios where specific stocks have either plateaued or fallen during these first few weeks of the 2015 campaign, but the commodities in question should be pursued on the trade market. 

Evidence suggests LeGarrette Blount might still prove valuable for fantasy investors given the Patriots' propensity to produce goal-line opportunities. The Steelers' invaluable vertical offense arguably offers one more reasonably priced admission ticket in Martavis Bryant.

For these players and three others, we delve into for our discussion of buy-low assets, there is a real window for profit open at the moment. 

Please join us in evaluating five current buy-low candidates in fantasy football, and please feel free to share any players you are pursuing on the market with an eye on strong return on investment.

LeGarrette Blount Could Still Become a Goal-Line Beast in 2015

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LeGarrette Blount's stock has taken a precipitous dive over the past two weeks. For one, diminutive dynamo Dion Lewis has averaged 129 total yards per game through two games, while out-snapping Blount 73 to seven, according to Pro Football Focus, this past week in Orchard Park, New York. 

So why exactly would I suggest you seek Blount's services on the open market?

For one, while Lewis can create yards on his own like an industrious magician and impress head coach Bill Belichick in the process, he ranks in the first percentile in height and the fifth in weight among NFL running back prospects since 1999, per Mock Draftable. Can a tailback like Lewis really handle the majority early-down share for one of the league's top offenses, as the Patriots' surely are?

Blount, for his part, is in the 73rd percentile in height and 97th in weight among NFL tailback prospects since 1999, per Mock Draftable, suggesting he offers a far different physical profile and usage potential than Lewis.  

Deem this a simplistic reduction if you'd like, but over the course of the long haul, the Patriots' early-down and short-yardage duties—especially of the goal-line variety—will likely trend to Blount in the coming weeks and for an enduring shift going forward this season. 

Lewis is certainly capable of continuing in a Shane Vereen-plus role, consuming a valid share of early-down work and third-down duties. But he's set to eventually cede important high-leverage work to Blount given such disparate skill sets and physical profiles.

Why would Blount reclaiming goal-line duties prove potentially significant for our imaginary football purposes?

The Patriots have produced the most rushes inside the 5-yard line for their running backs over the past two seasons. In fact, the Pats have produced 13 percent more such opportunities for their running backs than the next closest team and 41 percent more than the league average of 57 rushes inside the 5-yard line for running backs over that span. 

With an incumbent role as the Patriots' road-grader established, I'm still buying shares of Blount as a 10-touchdown candidate, especially while the market deems his stock depressed.

Vertical Volume in Pittsburgh Makes Martavis Bryant a Brilliant Buy-Low Asset

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Ben Roethlisberger is undeniably enjoying the deep ball these days. With such rare and valuable deep success in the Pittsburgh passing game, Martavis Bryant should be viewed as an upside WR2 who can be purchased for a discount at the moment. 

We recently learned from ESPN Stats & Info just how potent Pittsburgh's vertical air game has proved to be of late: 

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Roethlisberger's five completions on passes at least 30 yards downfield in Week 2 are the most by any quarterback in last 10 seasons, per ESPN Stats & Info. In his past 16 regular season games, "Big Ben" has compiled 5,090 yards to go with 35 passing scores and eight interceptions.

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When we also consider that Big Ben has led the NFL in passing yards on throws past 15 yards downfield and enjoyed the highest yards per attempt on such throws, we begin to appreciate Martavis Bryant's absence a bit more. Bryant, for his part, averaged nearly 22 yards per reception last year, a total that would have bested DeSean Jackson's leading per-catch efficiency rate had the volume been there to qualify him among the league leaders.

While Bryant still has two games left on his suspension, his stock remains artificially depressed as he's off the active marketplace. With Roethlisberger enjoying rare vertical success and his best vertical weapon still in storage, we're advising investors put in reasonable offers for Bryant's services soon.

If you missed out on Antonio Brown or didn't get shares of Le'Veon Bell, Bryant's deflated stock and instant ability to consume valuable vertical work suggests he's an ideal buy-low asset in this special Steelers offense.

Go Get Gordon: Chargers' Rookie RB Melvin Gordon on the Path to Big Plays

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While Danny Woodhead rightfully earns acclaim for his strong early box-score entries, tailback teammate Melvin Gordon has been stellar on tape early on. Looking decisive and determined—even if he's isolated to early-down exposure, I would expect an increased share of goal-line duties going forward for Gordon given the work he's putting on tape.

Gordon claims the league's fifth-highest elusive rating in Pro Football Focus' signature stats index for running backs. The stat offers a window into how many missed tackles a player forces per offensive touch. Gordon has forced a robust seven missed tackles on just 30 rushes so far, evidence he has some real big-play upside as his opportunity window expands when the Chargers' game script calls for it.

The Wisconsin product is also favorably rated in Pro Football Focus' breakaway percentage metric, a stat that simply accounts for what percentage of a tailback's yardage comes from runs of 15 or more yards. Albeit it is a minute sample, but Gordon leads the league with 52.5 percent of his yardage coming on big plays.

Consider this a slugging percentage for running backs; in baseball it might be how often do they get to second base or further. In football we want to know how often does the back get to the second level or further. The league's most productive fantasy backs often rate well in this metric each season.

Gordon won't be a three-down feature back as long as Woodhead is in the mix, but he can still be a high-end RB2 with some big weeks sprinkled in when he consumes and capitalizes on high-leverage goal-line usage. Before a big box score shifts his stock, I'd make some modest offers for Gordon while his investors are still unsure of what they have. 

Similarly, I'm chasing shares Jacksonville's T.J. Yeldon, as he's one of the rare 20-touch backs in the league and has also looked capable on tape to date.

John Brown's Breakout Campaign Still Quite Possible Thanks to Carson Palmer

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

A big-play maven who averaged nearly 15 yards per reception as a rookie while working with a patchwork series of signal-callers in 2014, the Arizona Cardinals' John Brown was a trendy value investment in fantasy drafts this summer. A quiet start to the season, however, offers a window for value at the moment.

Carson Palmer is throwing the ball downfield at a healthy rate, good for fifth-deepest average depth of target currently in the league. Meanwhile, Brown is a successful big play away from shifting his fantasy stock entirely. Even if he's the secondary target to Larry Fitzgerald, having a choice target share in one of the league's two or three best vertical passing games sets Brown up for big weeks ahead.

I would bet you can net Brown for a much smaller trade price Fitzgerald would demand, while the second-year target still claims nearly a fifth of Palmer's targets and arguably a stronger share of the team's big-play vertical usage. 

With a healthy enough target per route rate of 18.75 percent per Pro Football Focus, the fact Palmer is netting the second-highest yards per dropback in the league at the moment suggests this offense is not only effectively efficient, but has the potential to be elite.

C.J. Spiller Has Massive PPR Upside for the Rest of the Season

Jonathan Bachman/Associated Press

Pierre Thomas' average usage with the Saints from 2012-2015 saw him post 60 receptions for nearly 500 receiving yards each season as the team's third-down specialist from the backfield. With the Saints always proving pass-happy, just two attempts off the league lead last season, it's safe to assume enough volume this season for Spiller to match or pass Thomas' lofty receiving workload in a similar share of the offense.

Spiller was not only given more guaranteed money than incumbent early-down back Mark Ingram this past offseason, but with the Saints having thrown the most pass attempts to running backs since 2012—a whopping 11.2 targets per game to running backs—while the NFL average is 6.9 targets to tailbacks per game over that span, it's clear Spiller's role could be sizable for this increasingly conservative short-pass offense.

With Drew Brees ailing and likely limited downfield, Spiller's emergence coincides with game-script needs just in time for investors to find points-per-reception value in the former Clemson playmaker.