How MLB's Biggest Questions Will Be Answered in Season's Home Stretch
As of Tuesday, the playoff odds from BaseballProspectus.com gave eight teams a 99 percent or better chance of making the playoffs. Two others were a little above 90 percent (the Texas Rangers at 90.8 and the Houston Astros at 90.5).
There are 10 spots in the tournament. Eight are basically wrapped up, and the other two aren't exactly close.
Is it time to turn your attention elsewhere and rejoin baseball when the postseason begins October 6 with the American League Wild Card Game?
Not so fast. There's plenty to talk about and plenty still to be decided over the next 12 days. Some of it will greatly impact the playoffs. Some of it won't.
All of it will be covered here, in Bleacher Report's guide to the final week-and-a-half of the regular season.
There are division races to be decided. There are injuries to heal. There are awards to be won. There's history to be made.
And here's your guide to it.
Big Names, Big Injuries: Will Molina, Tulowitzki and Tanaka Be Ready?
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Two years ago, when I did a story on Yadier Molina for CBSSports.com, St. Louis Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak told me Molina was always the player the team couldn't figure out how to replace. The subject then was free agency, but now that Molina has a slightly torn ligament in his left thumb, the same thing still holds true. For all the injuries the Cardinals have overcome to earn baseball's best record, a Molina injury is the one they can least afford going into October.
Mozeliak told Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch he's hopeful Molina will return before the end of the regular season.
Is any player more important to any team?
Well, the New York Yankees look like they're headed for the American League Wild Card Game, and their chances of winning that game would look a lot better if Masahiro Tanaka is able to pitch it. He will miss his Wednesday night start in Toronto because of a Grade 1 hamstring strain, which doesn't sound too bad, but the Yankees will feel a lot better if he can get through a start in the next week.
Blue Jays shortstop Troy Tulowitzki had a more serious injury, a cracked left shoulder blade suffered when he collided with center fielder Kevin Pillar September 12 at Yankee Stadium. But Tulowitzki has also had more time to recover, and already on Tuesday he was playing catch and fielding ground balls.
The Blue Jays are 30-8 in games Tulowitzki has started. They went 5-4 in the first nine games after he got hurt.
Will he be ready in October? Will Molina? Will Tanaka? The answers may well determine which team wins it all.
AL West and Wild Card: Will Home Games Save the Astros?
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The Houston Astros spent 139 days in first place in the American League West, but a four-game sweep last week in Arlington dropped them behind the Texas Rangers. The Astros still hold the AL's second wild-card spot, but if any of the 10 teams currently in playoff position don't make it, they could be the one. Entering play Tuesday, the Astros led the Minnesota Twins by three games, the Los Angeles Angels by 3.5 and the Cleveland Indians by 4.5.
Given where they came from (416 losses the last four years), the Astros won't complain if they end up heading to New York or Toronto for the October 6 Wild Card Game. But it sure would be nice to get back on top in the West, and this weekend, the Astros have that chance. No remaining regular-season series any teams play will have more meaning than the three games the Astros and Rangers play this weekend at Minute Maid Park.
Location matters, given that the Astros have the best home record (51-25 heading into Tuesday night). Then again, since they go to Seattle and Arizona after the Rangers series, they'll need to win a few games on the road, too.
AL East: Will David Price Win the Division (and the Cy Young)?
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After the New York Yankees won two of three in the Subway Series with the New York Mets, they went to Toronto knowing that a three-game sweep of the Blue Jays would put them back in first place in the American League East, for the first time since August 24. David Price's win Monday night eliminated any chance of that.
The Yankees haven't been eliminated yet, but unless they come back, it won't be wrong to say that the Jays' July 30 trade for Price decided the division. He's 8-1 in 10 starts since coming to Toronto, and three of those wins came head-to-head against the Yankees.
The trade may also have helped decide the AL Cy Young race, which Houston's Dallas Keuchel led at midseason. Keuchel hasn't been bad in the second half, but Price has been brilliant, with a 1.95 ERA since the trade. He's now the league ERA leader for the full season at 2.34.
The Blue Jays could be big winners at awards time, with Josh Donaldson the favorite for Most Valuable Player and John Gibbons a candidate for Manager of the Year. But right now, they'd rather just win the East and get ready for the playoffs.
Price gives them a great chance to do both.
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NL East: Can the Nationals Even Make It Interesting?
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Normally, if a team leads by 6.5 games with 12 games to play, you would say the race is over. Sure enough, those BaseballProspectus.com playoff odds gave the Washington Nationals less than a 1 percent chance of catching the New York Mets in the National League East, as of Tuesday morning.
Mets fans still remember 2007 and 2008, when the Mets lost September leads to the Philadelphia Phillies. Nationals fans know their team will finish the season at Citi Field, which means Washington just needs to cut the lead to three games before that series to have a chance.
Logic (and a look at the two teams and their upcoming schedules) tells you it won't happen. But a couple of Mets losses and Nationals wins would have everybody wondering whether it could.
Awards Time: Who Are the Managers of the Year?
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That series in Houston this weekend could also end up deciding the American League Manager of the Year race.
Remember, as important as the playoffs are to a manager's reputation, award votes are cast before the postseason begins. So no matter who goes on to win the World Series, the manager who wins the AL West could become the Manager of the Year.
Houston's A.J. Hinch was the early favorite for his role in turning around the Astros. But Texas' Jeff Banister turned his team around too, from a sub-.500 first half to a second-half run that should get the Rangers to their first playoff berth since 2012.
Toronto's John Gibbons and Kansas City's Ned Yost deserve consideration too, but the award often goes to the manager whose team wins surprisingly, and either Hinch or Banister would have the edge.
Meanwhile in the National League, there's little that Joe Maddon or Terry Collins or Clint Hurdle or Mike Matheny can do to change many minds, but the debate can go on.
Home Field: Will the Mets Have to Face Kershaw, Greinke 'Out in the Shadows'?
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New York Mets manager Terry Collins put his team's race with the Los Angeles Dodgers for home field in the National League Division Series quite simply.
"We'd like to open up here [at Citi Field]," Collins said last week. "It beats facing those two animals in the shadows. That's not much fun."
The animals are Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, the Dodgers' top two starters and two of the best in all of baseball. The shadows would come during a 5 p.m. local time start at Dodger Stadium.
It's a given the Mets would face Kershaw and Greinke in the first two NLDS games. It's not a given the games would begin at shadow time. In fact, for three of the last four NLDS games at Dodger Stadium, first pitch was around 6:30 p.m., more like a regular-season game and past the worst shadow time.
There would still be a big advantage for either team starting at home. The Mets have been just a .500 team on the road this season, and the Dodgers have been sub-.500.
Entering play Tuesday, just half a game separated the Dodgers and Mets, with the Dodgers at 85-64 and the Mets at 85-65. If they finish tied, the Mets would have home field based on their 4-3 edge in the head-to-head season series.
ERA: How Low Can Zack Greinke Go?
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Back in the middle of July, Zack Greinke had a 1.30 ERA, which over a full season would have been the second-best by any pitcher in the last 90 years (Bob Gibson finished 1968 at 1.12).
Now Greinke is at 1.65, which would only be the best in 20 years (Greg Maddux finished 1995 at 1.63).
But what if he shuts out the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday night, which would drop him to 1.58, which would be the fourth-lowest since World War II (Gibson in 1968, Dwight Gooden at 1.53 in 1985 and Maddux at 1.56 in 1994)? Or what if he threw two shutouts, which would drop him to 1.52?
For what it's worth, Greinke doesn't have a complete-game shutout, but he does have 12 starts where he hasn't allowed an earned run. So it's not crazy to think he could lower his ERA from 1.65.
How low can he go? We'll see, and we'll also see if it's low enough for him to hold off Jake Arrieta for the National League Cy Young.
OPS+: How High Can Bryce Harper Go?
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A few weeks back, we told you Bryce Harper was having a season that could stand up next to those from Ted Williams, Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds.
He still is.
Harper is 22. As measured by Baseball-Reference.com, his OPS+ was 206 entering play Tuesday.
The only player in history who had a 200-plus OPS+ at that young an age was Williams, who had a 235 in 1941, the season he hit .406.
OPS+ attempts to equalize OPS (on-base plus slugging) for the conditions of the era and the ballparks played in. A score of 100 is supposed to represent major league average, and every point above represents one percentage point above average.
The last player to finish above 200 was Bonds in 2004.
Harper could make more history over the next week-and-a-half. As Jayson Stark pointed out for ESPN.com, Harper is close to doubling his age in home runs. He's 22. He has hit 41 home runs, with 12 games remaining.
Harper wouldn't be the first. Bonds, Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr. are among those who have done it. He wouldn't be the youngest, either, since Mel Ott hit 42 home runs when he was 20.
But it's still a cool stat, and unless the Washington Nationals can somehow make it close in the National League East, it might be the only reason to watch their final games.
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