MLB Playoff Predictions: Red Sox Have the Edge

Over the years, many sabermetricians have analyzed playoff stats in a fruitless effort to predict which teams will win in the postseason. 

More accurately, efforts have been made to find some metric that correlates to postseason success—and the general conclusion has been that the playoffs are a crapshoot. 

It’s nearly impossible to distinguish luck from skill come October.

That said, some stats have proven to have a slight predictive effect.  Teams with two dominant starters, exceptional bullpens, power-heavy lineups, and good fielding tend to have more success.

There's a premium on run prevention in the playoffs. 

With this limited wisdom in hand, I tackle what's bound to be an exciting October for baseball fans.

Red Sox

The Red Sox have everything they need to win the World Series. 

Josh Beckett, Dice-K, and Curt Schilling fill the role of go-to starters, and Terry Francona can always give the ball to Tim Wakefield to eat unimportant innings. 

The Boston bullpen is great, and the Sox have the highest Defensive Efficiency (DEF) of any of the teams in the playoffs.  They are my No. 1 pick to win the World Series.

Yankees

The winner of the wild card is always an easy choice to win in the postseason. 

The Yankees have been playing great baseball, and they finish out as my No. 2 pick to win the Series.  The Yankees are built on offense and not on run prevention—but it’s a tremendous offense.

Indians

This team has two Cy Young candidates and a couple of great pitchers in the bullpen—and that makes the Indians an attractive pick.

Still, the defense is average and their offense is good but not great.  They finish third in my ranking.

Angels

That’s right—my top four championship picks are all AL teams. 

The Angels are pretty much a sleeper pick.  They have three good starters, a good bullpen, and an offensive that isn’t embarrassing.  You could call the Angels the “Goldilocks” pick—they’re just right.

Cubs

When it comes to run prevention, the Cubs have it made—they finished just behind Boston in DEF and they rank No. 2 in ERA in the National League. 

I also like the distribution of the age of their players (long explanation not included, you’ll just have to trust me).  Of the National League teams, the Cubs have the best shot at the Title.

Rockies

The Rockies won 14 of their last 15 games and came from nowhere to make the playoffs.  I like nothing about this team statistically (except maybe their offensive abilities)...and as someone who doesn’t believe in “hot streaks” I shouldn’t get suckered in...but I think the Rockies have a better shot at the title than the Phillies or the Diamondbacks.

Diamondbacks

The only reason I think the Diamondbacks have any chance at all is that they probably have the strongest overall bullpen among the NL teams.

Phillies

I wouldn’t pick this team to win a game in the postseason.  Jamie Moyer?  Are you kidding?
 

If you’re thinking about putting money down in this postseason, I have some thoughts:

Even though I rank the AL teams as the most likely to win the pennant, and even though it’s very clear that the best teams in this postseason are on the AL side of the bracket, I still think there's a 43-48 percent chance an NL team will win the whole caboodle.

Like I said, the postseason is bit of a crapshoot.

I looked on Tradesports.com, and for $37.80 (to win $100) you can buy the contracts for all four NL teams.  If my estimation is right and the odds the NL will win the World Series are higher than that, it will be worth taking a chance. 

I’d buy contracts for all the NL teams and hope for an upset.

The usual disclaimer against taking investment advice from a sportswriter applies here.