2016 NFL Draft: Updated Prospect Radar Post-Week 2
There's only one more college football Saturday left in the month of September. While the majority of the season is still ahead of us, time is flying by.
Don't buy into the media telling you that the draft stock of college prospects are rapidly rising and dropping on a week-to-week basis. For the most part, it's gradual momentum that starts building as the season goes on and gets exposed in big games, when everyone's eyes are fixed on certain matchups.
This week, we saw a returner bounce back to his once dominant ways, an edge defender potentially earning a poor label and a hybrid tight end break out on national television, among other performances. We'll break down why a player is rising or falling, how his skill set can help a professional squad and finally where they should project heading into the 2016 NFL draft at this point in the season.
Stock Up: Ryan Switzer, RET, North Carolina
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Not everyone at the next level is going to be an every-down player. At the University of North Carolina, Ryan Switzer is an undersized receiver at 5'10" and 185 pounds, but his biggest impact comes on special teams, where he should be able to make a squad as a professional.
In his freshman year in Chapel Hill, he scored on five punt returns, looking like the next Devin Hester-type of elite returner. His sophomore year featured a slump, when his punt return yardage dropped from 502, a 20.9 yard average, to 172, a 4.9 yard average. In the third week of the season, he's seemingly bounced back.
Against Illinois, Switzer returned to his former great efforts, totaling for 168 yards via punts, nearly matching his 2014 total in a single game. The field position he gained for the Tar Heels assisted the team in a 48-14 win. With a sixth career punt return touchdown, he now sits atop the conference list with former Maryland Terrapin Steve Suter. Maryland is now in the Big Ten, meaning that when only including current ACC schools, Switzer is alone at the top, with Miami's Hester sitting in the second spot with four touchdowns.
Valuing specialists can be interesting. Some NFL squad routinely let kickers, punters and long snappers walk, avoiding paying them on non-rookie contracts. On the other hand, Sebastian Janikowski was drafted 17th overall, and Roberto Aguayo of Florida State may press Janikowski's mark whenever he decides to declare for the draft. The same goes for returners.
Tyler Lockett was just drafted this year with the 69th overall pick, and he's been used in Seattle as a return specialist instead of as a starting receiver. It paid off for the squad when he returned a punt for a touchdown against the St. Louis Rams in Week 1.
Where will Switzer land in the draft? It's hard to say. It's great that he's showing the ability to produce on film when squads aren't just going for hang time and avoiding giving him a good return attempt in exchange for a shorter, higher punt. We missed that all of 2014.
Current Draft Projection: Fifth Round
Stock Up: Joe Walker, LB, Oregon
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The closest player I've seen to Kiko Alonso since Kiko Alonso is currently playing for the Oregon Ducks. I know it sounds like a lazy comparisons because they went to the same school, and it honestly might be the unique style of defense that the Ducks play that links those two to me mentally, but it's true.
His name is Joe Walker, and he's a junior college transfer from L.A. Harbor College. Walker sustained a shoulder injury that required surgery, which then forced him to attend a junior college before transferring up to the FBS level, where he chose the Ducks.
This year, he has 23 tackles, 2.5 tackles for a loss and a sack in a rotating defense that can see up to 20 contributors in an average game. To put that into perspective, there are only about 20 active defenders on each team during game days in the NFL, let alone contributors who see significant snaps.
Walker is a linebacker and is asked to drop into coverage often. The first reason is that he plays in the Pac-12, where every team has put in spread elements into their offense. The second reason is that Oregon, taking it upon itself to be "bend, don't break" defensively, often rushes only its three defensive linemen, dropping eight linebackers and defensive backs to cover every inch of the field.
When the Ducks do send a blitz, it's run-orientated. If you ever saw Alonso in college, he was never a sack artist, despite his frame looking like one of a pass-rusher. His big plays were blowing up runs in the backfield by shooting through the A-gap with his hair on fire or on interceptions, like when he picked off Wisconsin's Russell Wilson in the Rose Bowl.
Watching Walker, he does the same things.
It was against Georgia State, but he returned a fumble for 52 yards for a touchdown last Saturday. To put it simply: Walker's motor is always running hot. Walker's most famous play? His 99-yard fumble return touchdown against Utah, when a Ute player quit on the play early, dropping the football before he ran into the end zone. Walker grabbed it and flew to the opposite end zone for a score, turning what would have been a 13-0, 14-0 post-PAT, score in favor of Utah to a tied game.
At 6'2" and 240 pounds, I think Walker can play either the "Sam" or "Mike" linebacker spots in a 4-3 defense or either of the 3-4 inside linebacker roles. He may not be on the radars of most, but he should be.
Current Draft Projection: Fifth Round
Stock Down: Carl Lawson, EDGE, Auburn
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There's a saying in football that goes "You can't make the club in the tub." Now that doesn't mean that a player needs to play through any and every injury, but health status will matter at the professional level.
For example, Marcus Lattimore was one of the best running back prospects that college football has ever produced. With that being said, his repeated knee injuries kept him out of the top 130 selections of the 2013 draft class. The San Francisco 49ers drafted him in the fourth round, right around the time when selections end up becoming crapshoots.
In two years at the NFL level, he never saw the field, retiring in November 2014. Now, Carl Lawson hasn't had repeated injuries like Lattimore did when he tore ligaments to his knee in both 2011 and 2012, but Lawson has missed plenty of time.
Lawson opened eyes as a freshman, mostly notably in the national championship game against the Florida State Seminoles. The Freshman All-American went toe-to-toe with the Florida State offensive line that featured five future professionals, including left tackle Cameron Erving, the 19th overall pick in the 2015 draft.
In 2014, his sophomore season, he didn't play a game, losing the year to a torn ACL. This past week, against the LSU Tigers, he was held out due to a hip issue. Heading into the Jacksonville State game in Week 2, the Auburn Tigers were ranked sixth in the FBS but skated away with a 27-20 win in overtime against the FCS squad. They then visited LSU for a 45-21 loss. Auburn needs Lawson back.
It seems like a day-to-day issue, but if the injury lingers much longer, he's going to have to stay in school for at least another year to prove to NFL squads that he isn't an injury-prone trench player. He's 6'2", 257 pounds and used to look like a top-10 pick. It's time for Lawson to earn that grade again.
Current Draft Projection: Third Round
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Stock Up: Darron Lee, LB, Ohio State
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Darron Lee is one of the bright starts in college football right now. Even if you aren't into the draft, I suggest keeping an eye on him, and Ohio State defensive end Joey Bosa, any time the Buckeyes are on defense.
An off-the-ball linebacker, Lee doesn't play a "premier position," but he plays his position at a high enough level that it impacts the game on the same level as a pass-rusher or defensive tackle. As a true freshman, he sustained an injury that eventually led to a medical redshirt.
As a redshirt freshman in 2014, he started every game, was named to Freshman All-American lists and recorded two sacks against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the Sugar Bowl. Without him last season, I don't think Ohio State puts it together after the Virginia Tech loss and goes on a run to win the national championship.
At 6'2" and 235 pounds, it's a bit of a struggle to see where he fits in a 3-4 defense. He's got a great 4-3 outside linebacker body, but he's too small to be a pass-rushing 3-4 outside linebacker, and, outside of safety, 3-4 inside linebackers are the least impactful players on the defensive side of the ball at the professional level.
He just might be the most athletic linebacker in his class, though. The two similar athletes that come to mind in recent classes are Stephone Anthony, the Saints' first-round rookie, and Ryan Shazier, the second-year player for the Steelers who also came from Ohio State. Anthony is currently covering receivers like John Brown toe-to-toe, and Shazier is absolutely flying all over the field.
Against Northern Illinois this week, Lee made plenty of plays, but none were bigger than the interception he returned for a touchdown. With the reigning national champions winning by a single touchdown, his ability to turn a play into an eventual seven-point score for his squad was amazing.
Per Bill Landis of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, defensive coordinator Luke Fickell stated Lee told the sideline he was going to intercept the screen pass before it happened. That's a level of awareness and instincts that only exist in corny sports movies. If you team needs a linebacker next season, Lee is one of the guys you should be crossing your fingers for.
Current Draft Projection: First Round
Stock Up: Desmond King, CB, Iowa
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The NFL is very picky about cornerbacks in 2015. After seeing the success of the Seattle Seahawks' long, speedy combos on the outside, many squads have looked for those bodies specifically to add during the draft. The problem is, some are only focusing on those bodies, which then causes those players to get overdrafted due to supply and demand.
For example, Stanley Jean-Baptiste couldn't cover well at the college level while at Nebraska. But he's 6'3", so the New Orleans Saints drafted him with the 58th overall pick. Why is length hard to find at the position? Because most kids growing up would rather play with the ball in their hands and/or they realize at some point in their life that receivers, the comparable body type to cornerbacks offensively, have a chance to make more money at the professional level.
When you combine that with the fact that most offenses went from two receivers to three or four in recent years, you begin to understand why there are few quality cornerbacks at the college level. The same can be said about offensive linemen, but that's a story for another day.
So teams figure, if they have to build a cornerback, they might as well do it with one that has tools. The problem is tools aren't everything, as the Saints found out the hard way. Jean-Baptiste, a second-rounder, was cut after playing just four games on special teams his rookie year.
This isn't one isolated instance. Justin Gilbert was drafted eighth overall, a draft slot the Cleveland Browns had to trade up to acquire, and has started two games to date. In his sophomore year of the league, he's already falling down the path of a bust. In college, he was only successful against vertical routes in Oklahoma State's quarters-heavy scheme, but he's 6'0" and ran a 4.35 40-yard dash, so a team like the Browns took their shot.
The most important aspect of cornerback play goes as so: Can he cover and does he have ball skills? Primarily, you want a guy who won't get burned. Cornerback is a position of prevention, where when you're doing your best job the ball won't even come your way. Second, if it does for some reason come your way, can you make the best of it by getting a hand on it to either let it drop to the ground or go to your team?
There's a corner at Iowa who is making me think he can do both. He may not have the best speed, and he's only 5'11", but he checks off those two boxes. His name is Desmond King, and in the last two games, he's brought down three interceptions for his team.
Last Saturday, against Pittsburgh, he made two interceptions in a 27-24 narrow win, where his plays very well could have been the difference between a win and a loss. Against Iowa State in Week 2 of the college football season, he also registered an interception against the Hawkeyes' in-state rival.
A large part of Iowa's 3-0 start rests on the shoulders of King. Some might see King as a future safety convert in the mold of Micah Hyde, who was moved from cornerback to safety for the Green Bay Packers after being drafted out of Iowa, but I think he has a chance to stick on the outside for a team that isn't stuck thinking inside the box. He's only a junior, but less talented defenders have declared early in recent years.
Current Draft Projection: Fifth Round
Stock Up: Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss
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Laquon Treadwell is the best receiver in college football. At 6'2" and 210 pounds, he also has the frame to project an easy transition into being the top pass-catcher on an NFL squad.
Ole Miss' offense is about as "spread" as one can imagine. That doesn't mean that they don't know their personnel, though. Just about every time Treadwell sees one-on-one coverage, the quarterback looks his way, if for no other reason than to throw a 50/50 jump ball toward him.
Often, Treadwell comes down with those passes. The best way to describe his game is aggressive. He attacks the ball and takes pride in being able to come down with it in his hands. It's hard to find a comparison for him. He has better hands than Kelvin Benjamin, but he doesn't have the wheels of a Dez Bryant. A hybrid of those two, he's an absolute weapon and should be looked at as a top-20 draft pick.
Against Alabama, he proved why. Totaling for 80 yards and a score, he helped the Rebels to a 43-37 victory in Tuscaloosa, only the second time Ole Miss has beaten the Tide there.
His statistics were higher than all of his efforts against Power Five opponents last year other than one: Auburn.
Against Auburn, on his way to a score, he sustained a brutal injury to his leg and ankle, which ended his season. Judging by his performance, he's back to 100 percent. Without him, Ole Miss went from looking like a title contender and potential SEC champions to losing 30-0 to Arkansas and 42-3 to TCU.
Right now, Ole Miss is leading the FBS in points per game with an average of 64. Treadwell is one of the main reasons, and NFL squads thirsty for an elite receiver, like the Cleveland Browns, should have a laser focus on him for the rest of the season.
Current Draft Projection: First Round
Stock Up: Stephen Anderson, TE, California
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It's becoming harder and harder to find quality starting tight ends at the college level. The demands to be a starting NFL tight end have just changed too much in recent years. You used to be able to get away with essentially being a smaller offensive tackle or longer fullback a few years ago, but now guys like Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce are lighting up the league as super humans and others like Jimmy Graham are detaching as borderline wideouts.
On top of that, every offense doesn't even have tight ends at the college level. Many spread offenses just incorporate thinner tight end bodies into a "jumbo slot" role, like the Saints did with Graham and Marques Colston.
A recent example of this is Jace Amaro, who in the Air Raid system at Texas Tech, was used almost exclusively as a pass-catcher. He was drafted by the New York Jets with the 49th overall pick last season. This year, there's another Air Raid pass-catcher to keep your eye on: Stephen Anderson.
Anderson is listed as a receiver by California, but he has the body of a tight end at 6'3" and 230 pounds. This is the same offense and program that produced Richard Rodgers, who was drafted in the top 100 by the Green Bay Packers last year and is the team's current starting tight end.
Now, Anderson will need to eat more to catch up to Rodgers' combine weight of 257, but he has the ability to play at the next level. Teaming up with potential first overall pick Jared Goff against Texas, he brought in six receptions for 56 yards, including a 22-yarder, the first big play of the game for the Bears.
He's been named to the John Mackey Award watch list, so those who really pay attention to the position have taken notice, but before Saturday, he had yet to register to draftniks as a possible draft selection.
Current Draft Projection: Fifth Round
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