MLB Free Agency 2015: Previewing the 6 Best Sleeper Values
Let's take a break from the monotony of playoff positioning and award watches to look ahead at the upcoming MLB free-agency period.
The 2015 class is loaded with talent—David Price, Zack Greinke (potentially), Yoenis Cespedes and Jason Heyward, just to name a few—but there are also a handful of under-the-radar sleepers whom teams should target this winter.
Over the next few slides, we'll identify six sleepers with under-the-radar value in the upcoming free-agent class. With position players like Daniel Murphy, Juan Uribe and Rajai Davis and hurlers like Mike Leake, Mark Buehrle and Brian Matusz, teams don't have to break the bank in order to improve their squads.
Where do the players on this list derive their value from? For one, the following names can be had for manageable salaries. Second, each of these players quietly does certain things that enhance his value. For Buehrle, it's his unmatched consistency, and for Davis, it's his speed and defensive versatility.
Let us know what you think of the following choices in the comments section below. Are any of these players a fit for your team? Who else has sneaky value this winter? Which free agents do you want your team to stay away from?
Finding those hidden gems in free agency is often just as important as inking a high-profile signing. The names on this list may be underrated, but each can have an immediate impact in 2016.
Mark Buehrle
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2015 Stats: 14-7, 179.1 IP, 3.66 ERA, 4.12 K/9, 1.41 BB/9, .270 AVG
Mark Buehrle turned 36 in March, but the veteran left-hander keeps trucking along in the latter stages of his career.
The Toronto Blue Jays have caught fire in the second half, but it was Buehrle who kept the rotation afloat before the All-Star break. The left-hander has won 14 games for Toronto this season, posting a 3.66 ERA in the process.
Buehrle's biggest contribution to a chaotic Toronto rotation has been his consistency, but that's nothing new for the southpaw. Buehrle has won 10 or more games, made 30 or more starts and logged 200-plus innings in every full MLB season in his career. That's 14 straight years of reliable production that few hurlers can match.
Obviously, Buehrle's age will work against him in free agency. Yet he's overcome diminishing velocity and strikeout totals by throwing strikes—Buehrle's 3.8 percent walk rate is the fourth-lowest total in MLB—and inducing more ground balls. He's never had dominating stuff, which should give teams reason to believe he can continue to produce.
Of all the positions in the upcoming free-agent class, starting pitching is the deepest. David Price, Johnny Cueto and other top hurlers will receive most of the media attention, but don't sleep on Buehrle. A contender, especially in the American League, could solidify the back end of its rotation by inking him to a short-term deal.
Rajai Davis
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2015 Stats: .248/.296/.426, 7 HR, 49 R, 26 RBI, 18 SB, 94 wRC+, 1.4 WAR
Rajai Davis has his flaws, but his speed and outfield defense at all three positions give him sneaky value for teams with few holes to fill.
Since his first full season in the big leagues in 2007, Davis' 320 stolen bases rank third behind only Michael Bourn (325) and Jose Reyes (322). Even with injuries and a dip in production this season, Davis is still on pace to swipe over 20 bags.
Davis also brings defensive versatility to the table. In his career, the 34-year-old has played 361 games in left, 535 in center and 112 in right. In 309 innings in center this season with the Detroit Tigers, Davis has recorded five defensive runs saved.
While speed and defense are Davis' strengths, he's not as polished offensively. The outfielder has unappealing strikeout and walk rates for a player who relies heavily on his legs. Davis' career .315 on-base percentage won't exactly entice teams to open up the checkbook.
However, Davis would be a quality pickup for a team with a complete roster. His ability to swipe a bag and play all three outfield positions would be a huge luxury for a squad that doesn't need him to be an everyday contributor.
Mike Leake
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2015 Stats: 10-8, 174.0 IP, 3.72 ERA, 5.95 K/9, 2.22 BB/9, .240 AVG
Mike Leake's name was at the forefront of trade discussions this summer, but the casual fan may not be aware of just how good he is.
Since 2010, Leake has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in five of six seasons. The right-hander has made 30 or more starts in each of the last three years and has logged over 190 innings in each of the last two.
Leake gets major league hitters out by pitching to contact. The 27-year-old has a career walk percentage of 6 percent. When Leake does get hit, it's normally on the ground. He ranks 17th in baseball in ground-ball percentage with a 51.4 mark.
In terms of repertoire, Leake has tweaked his usage rates throughout his career. In 2015, Leake has thrown six pitches over 100 times. Of those pitches, Leake has thrown his four-seam fastball the fewest times and has increased the usage of his sinker and cutter. By tinkering with his offerings, Leake will continue to adapt as he ages.
On the flip side, hitters who manage to lift the ball off Leake usually hit it a long way. He ranks 10th in baseball in home run-to-fly ball ratio, which makes him an ideal candidate for a spacious ballpark.
Leake is currently pitching in such confines at AT&T Park. Re-signing him makes plenty of sense for the San Francisco Giants, but other teams with big yards and solid defenses can get immense value from Leake's skill set.
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Brian Matusz
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2015 Stats: 1-4, 54 G, 47 IP, 2.87 ERA, 10.34 K/9, 3.83 BB/9, .200 AVG
Pitchers who can both start and come out of the bullpen are becoming more and more important in today's MLB. That's why Brian Matusz has more value than meets the eye.
After struggling with inconsistency and injuries early in his career, Matusz has found his way over the last three seasons in Baltimore. The southpaw has posted a 2.87 ERA in 2015 after 3.53 and 3.48 marks in 2013 and 2014, respectively.
The 28-year-old has done most of that work out of the bullpen. Matusz has been able to cut his arsenal of pitches down to three reliable offerings—fastball, slider, changeup—which has allowed him to raise his strikeout totals to career highs.
Some pitchers aren't meant to face opposing lineups more than once. Matusz seems to fit that mold, but his experience starting games also adds to his value. Since 2009, Matusz has started 68 games in his career. He may not be viewed as a full-time starter anymore, but Matusz is capable of spot starting if needed.
Regardless of how he's used, the team that signs Matusz this winter will be getting a hurler who dominates left-handed hitters. But it's his ability to hold his own against righties and potentially start games that gives Matusz that extra value.
Daniel Murphy
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2015 Stats: .271/.315/.419, 11 HR, 46 R, 63 RBI, 99 wRC+, 1.4 WAR
For years, Daniel Murphy was one of the best players on the New York Mets roster.
But with all the deserved hoopla surrounding the Mets this season, it seems that Murphy is being overlooked. Even in a down year, the 30-year-old is hitting .271 with 11 homers and 63 RBI. Murphy has been a quality major league hitter for the majority of his career. His lifetime slash line of .287/.330/.419 would be a welcome addition to any lineup.
Murphy's biggest strength at the plate is his ability to make consistent contact. He has a career strikeout percentage of just over 12 percent and has lowered that total to a 7 percent mark this season. Murphy is hitting the ball harder and more frequently than he did last season, so a .270 BABIP has to be viewed as unlucky.
Now, defense is another story. Murphy has cost the Mets 43 defensive runs saved in his career, including seven in 2015. Those aren't ideal numbers for a second baseman, but Murphy has shown he can play a variety of different positions if he needs to change spots.
But let's be honest—any team pursuing Murphy will be after his bat. A team with multiple swing-and-miss players in its lineup would benefit greatly from Murphy's contact-driven approach at the plate.
Juan Uribe
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2015 Stats: .251/.320/.410, 13 HR, 39 R, 41 RBI, 102 wRC+, 1.9 WAR
What a crazy year it's been for Juan Uribe. After playing for three different teams during the 2015 season, the 36-year-old will he headed back to the postseason in October.
Although Uribe hasn't enjoyed much success in New York, he's in the midst of another quality season.
The third baseman has reached double digits in homers for the ninth time in his career and has been a key contributor for both the Mets and the Atlanta Braves. Don't let his physique and age fool you—Uribe is still an elite defensive third baseman. He posted 32 defensive runs saved over the 2013 and 2014 seasons, which only enhances his value.
Of course, Uribe's winning pedigree doesn't hurt, either. It seems that he wins wherever he goes, including World Series rings with the San Francisco Giants and Chicago White Sox. It's hard to place a value on leadership and other intangibles, but it's not a coincidence that Uribe is consistently on a winner.
At 36, Uribe has proven he still has plenty left in the tank. There won't be any long-term, high-dollar contracts on the table, but Uribe won't be short on suitors. Teams in need of a dependable bat and quality clubhouse presence should be beating down Uribe's door this winter.
Stats courtesy of FanGraphs and accurate as of Sept. 18.
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