Each AL Contender's Biggest Roadblock to Reaching the 2015 Postseason
It's time for magic numbers and scoreboard watching. For living and dying with every pitch of one-run games in the bottom of the ninth. For praying a little harder to the baseball gods for some divine intervention on behalf of your favorite contender.
Sort of.
While nothing has been officially clinched, we know the National League's five playoff teams will be the Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals, while the Kansas City Royals, New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays are all but locks to make the playoffs in the American League.
None of them are concerned about roadblocks right now.
The same can't be said for the Cleveland Indians, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels, Minnesota Twins and Texas Ranger, five teams vying for two playoff spots—one wild-card berth and, for the Astros, Angels and Rangers, the AL West crown.
For those five teams, the path to the promised land is littered with roadblocks, some which will be more easily avoided than others.
Cleveland Indians
1 of 5
Biggest Roadblock: The rest of the AL Central
If Cleveland's stretch-run push for a wild-card spot looks and feels familiar, it's because we saw the Indians do this very thing two years ago, winning their last 10 games to force their way into the playoffs.
But that Indians squad finished the year with a winning record against the rest of the AL Central (44-32). This year's version sits 10 games below .500 against divisional opponents (25-35). Cleveland plays 15 of its last 18 games against teams from the Central, not including a pair of games that were rained out versus Detroit.
That doesn't bode well for a ballclub that, while on a hot streak, still has to climb over three teams in the standings to stake a claim on the American League's second wild-card spot.
Houston Astros
2 of 5
Biggest Roadblock: A lack of momentum
After dropping four of its first five games on a 10-game road trip, Houston got some late-inning heroics from Jed Lowrie in Los Angeles, heroics that not only avoided a sweep at the hands of the Angels, but as closer Luke Gregerson hoped, would give the team momentum heading into Texas.
"It's a lot nicer to go in there with a 1.5-game and a 4.5-game lead [over the closest two teams] instead of a half and a 2.5," Gregerson told the Houston Chronicle's Evan Drellich. "It makes all the difference, and hopefully we can just carry the momentum. You see what we did in the ninth tonight off a good guy [in Angels closer Huston Street], and hopefully we can take it into Texas and try to do the same thing."
Except the Rangers killed whatever momentum the Astros had, taking the first two games of their four-game set in Arlington and, more importantly, taking a half-game lead over the Astros in the AL West.
Now the question becomes can they get it back?
A return to Minute Maid Park, where the Astros own one of baseball's best home records (48-24), for a nine-game homestand (that includes three games against the Rangers) should help, but it offers no guarantees.
After all, the Astros will be taking on the teams that just beat them handily on the road: Oakland, Los Angeles and Texas.
Los Angeles Angels
3 of 5
Biggest Roadblock: Struggles on the road
Mike Trout's miserable August certainly played a major part in pushing the Los Angeles Angels to the outskirts of contention, but the perennial MVP candidate can't shoulder all the blame for what has been a disappointing season.
No, if you're looking for a reason why the Angels have failed to meet expectations this season, take a look at how they've fared on the road. The team's 29-40 record away from Angel Stadium is not only one of the worst road records in the American League, but it serves as a serious roadblock to the team's chances of making a late-season push for a playoff spot.
Of the club's final 18 games, 12 of them will be played on the road, including stops in Houston, Seattle and Arlington, where they've gone a combined 8-9 this year.
That doesn't bode well for the team's chances of overtaking the Astros or Rangers in the hunt for a playoff berth.
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Minnesota Twins
4 of 5
Biggest Roadblock: An inconsistent offense
Heading into the All-Star break, only eight teams had scored more runs than Minnesota, which crossed home plate 383 times. Since then, 18 teams have put more runs on the scoreboard than the Twins, who have outscored only eight clubs in the month of September.
While the Twins have a winning record this month (8-6), that lack of offense has wasted what has been a tremendous performance by an oft-maligned pitching staff, which has produced a 3.67 ERA and the month's second-highest WAR total (2.4), per FanGraphs.
If the Twins are going to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2010, they're going to need more consistent production from the likes of Brian Dozier (.164 BA, .529 OPS), Byron Buxton (.182, .471) and Eddie Rosario (.229, .662) down the stretch.
Texas Rangers
5 of 5
Biggest Roadblock: A shaky rotation
When a team can throw Cole Hamels, Derek Holland and Yovani Gallardo over the course of a three-game series, you'd think it would have a good chance to win. You'd be right on most days, and the surging Rangers are proof of that.
But while the club continues to win and has overtaken Houston for the lead in the AL West, the rotation hasn't exactly been delivering Cy Young Award-winning performances this month:
- Colby Lewis (2 GS, 3.86 ERA, 1.07 WHIP)
- Cole Hamels (3 GS, 4.29 ERA, 1.24 WHIP)
- Derek Holland (3 GS, 4.79 ERA, 1.35 WHIP)
- Yovani Gallardo (3 GS, 5.52 ERA, 1.57 WHIP)
- Martin Perez (2 GS, 6.55 ERA, 1.1.73 WHIP)
With all due respect to Colby Lewis, it's a bad sign when he's been the ace of your pitching staff over the first half of the regular season's final month.
If the Rangers are going to maintain their momentum and fend off the Astros, they're going to need far better performances out of the rest of this group.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs and are current through Sept. 15. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball, @RickWeinerBR
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