Fantasy Football Week 1: Advanced Stats, Metrics and Player Projections

With fantasy football Week 1 now upon us, what are some of the advanced stats and metrics you can use to begin the season with a win? Each week we’ll go over interesting statistics and take a deep dive into some of the more advanced metrics fantasy football players can use to win their league. 

At the very least, knowing these stats and metrics will make watching football on Sunday and Monday more fun; you’ll know what to look for. You might even get an inkling of things to come just by seeing where your fantasy players line up on the field, or where the targets are being distributed.

For example, the only touchdowns Philadelphia tight end Zach Ertz scored last season came on passes 20-plus yards down the field. (Note: Ertz should find plenty of open space down the field in Week 1 against the Atlanta Falcons. See where this is going?)

Player projections for the week’s top five options at each position will also be provided in this article. How many touchdowns is Matt Ryan going to throw this week? And how many of those touchdowns will go to Julio Jones? Will Dez Bryant tops those stats?

The rankings for each position come via the expert consensus rankings compiled by FantasyPros.

Let's get to it.

Quarterbacks: Aaron Rodgers to Dominate Week 1

Don Wright/Associated Press

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is set to dominate in Week 1 against the Chicago Bears. Rodgers annihilated the Bears last season by tossing 617 yards and 10 touchdowns in two games. Another five-plus touchdown game isn’t likely (it has only been done 35 times over the past decade, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com), but three scores and 300-plus yards are definitely possible for Rodgers.

The Projections

The top five quarterbacks this week are expected to be Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Tom Brady and Tony Romo. Since Brady played on Thursday night, we will exclude him from this list and include the No. 6-ranked quarterback—Peyton Manning—in the projections.

For what it's worth, Brady fit the bill of a top-five quarterback, throwing for nearly 300 yards and four scores against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Will these five be able to match Brady's superb outing?

1. Aaron Rodgers (at CHI): 25-of-35, 305 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions—24.2 fantasy points
2. Matt Ryan (vs. PHI): 29-of-42, 328 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception—23.1 fantasy points
3. Andrew Luck (at BUF): 23-of-37, 277 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception—17.1 fantasy points
4. Tony Romo (vs. NYG): 20-of-30, 270 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception—16.8 fantasy points
5. Peyton Manning (vs. BAL): 22-of-33, 260 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception—16.4 fantasy points 

Stats to Know

• Peyton Manning threw the ball an average of 37 times per game over the first 11 games of the 2014 season. Over the final five games, Manning attempted 31 passes per game.

• Cam Newton had “no weapons” at this time last season as well (Kelvin Benjamin was a promising but unproven rookie)—and things didn’t start well for him. After missing Week 1, Newton was only the 16th-highest-scoring fantasy quarterback over the next four games. He could get off to an even slower start in 2015.

• The Atlanta Falcons defense gave up a league-high 280 passing yards per game last season.

• The Philadelphia Eagles defense gave up 265 passing yards per game last season—second-most in the league.

• The Falcons and Eagles square off on Monday Night Football. An offensive explosive is a foregone conclusion. Matt Ryan and Sam Bradford should be in all fantasy lineups.

What the Metrics Say

• Matt Ryan was the most accurate quarterback on deep passes last season. According to Pro Football Focus, he was on target 56.5 percent of the time on passes 20-plus yards down the field. Combined with the fact that the Eagles gave up a ton of passing yards last season, a 300-plus yard game for Ryan appears to be in the cards.

• According to ESPN.com, the Washington Redskins gave up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season. Quarterbacks scored at least 15 fantasy points against the Redskins 12 times last season. This bodes well for Ryan Tannehill and the Miami Dolphins in Week 1.

• The San Francisco 49ers led all teams last season with 23 interceptions, but don’t be surprised if second-year pro Teddy Bridgewater goes interception-free in Week 1. Over three-fourths (77.3 percent) of Bridgewater’s passes were accurate last season, third-highest in the league. Even when under pressure, Bridgewater was still on target 75.2 percent of the time, tops in the league among all quarterbacks when facing pressure.

Running Backs: DeMarco Murray Gets Juicy First Matchup

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

The names at the top of the list are all familiar, but DeMarco Murray’s inclusion may come as a surprise. Wasn’t his move to Philadelphia supposed to make him less valuable on the fantasy field?

When looking at the season as a whole, yes. But in Week 1, Murray gets a favorable matchup against the Atlanta Falcons in what promises to be a high-scoring game.

The Projections

1. Eddie Lacy (at CHI): 24 carries, 128 yards, 2 touchdowns; 2 receptions, 30 yards—27.8 fantasy points
2. Adrian Peterson (at SF): 25 carries, 115 yards, 2 touchdowns; 3 receptions, 40 yards—27.5 fantasy points
3. Jeremy Hill (at OAK): 23 carries, 105 yards, 2 touchdowns; 2 receptions, 15 yards—24 fantasy points
4. Jamaal Charles (at HOU): 18 carries, 102 yards, 1 touchdown; 4 receptions, 50 yards—21.2 fantasy points
5. DeMarco Murray (at ATL): 20 carries, 93 yards, 1 touchdown; 3 receptions, 50 yards—20.3 fantasy points

Stats to Know

• The Falcons gave up 21 rushing touchdowns last season, most in the league. That’s one reason why DeMarco Murray cracks the top five for Week 1.

• The Tennessee Titans gave up over 137 rushing yards per game last season. Opposing teams also ran the ball over 32 times per game against the Titans, most in the league. Tampa Bay’s Doug Martin gets the first shot at the Titans in 2015. Based on volume alone he warrants RB2 consideration.

• The Kansas City Chiefs gave up only four touchdowns on the ground last season. With Arian Foster sidelined, it could be difficult for Houston’s backups—namely Alfred Blue—to find the end zone against the stout Chiefs defense.

What the Metrics Say

• Three of the top five ranked running backs this week were among the best when it came to gaining yards after contact last season. Eddie Lacy (2.82 average yards after contact), Jeremy Hill (2.80) and Jamaal Charles (2.63) were third, fourth and fifth, respectively, in that category among running backs that saw the majority of their team’s snaps. Only Marshawn Lynch (2.96) and Arian Foster (2.83) averaged more yards after contact. 

• Look for long runs from Baltimore’s Justin Forsett. He gained 41.7 percent of his total rushing yards last season on runs that were at least 15 yards. 

• Playing in a points-per-reception (PPR) league? Slide Andre Ellington up a bit. He averaged 1.65 yards per route run last season, tied for third-best among all running backs (behind Le’Veon Bell and Fred Jackson and tied with Darren Sproles).

Wide Receivers: Prepare for the Julio Jones Show in Week 1

David Goldman/Associated Press

We could see some huge numbers from some of the best receivers in the game in Week 1, as players such as Julio Jones, Dez Bryant and Odell Beckham Jr. will all see favorable matchups.

It should be noted that Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown was the No. 2-ranked wideout heading into Week 1. Brown delivered on Thursday night, catching nine passes for 133 yards and a score (19.3 fantasy points). 

The Projections

1. Julio Jones (vs. PHI): 10 receptions, 125 yards, 2 touchdowns—24.5 fantasy points
2. Dez Bryant (vs. NYG): 8 receptions, 103 yards, 2 touchdowns—22.3 fantasy points
3. Odell Beckham Jr. (at DAL): 7 receptions, 95 yards, 1 touchdown—15.5 fantasy points
4. Demaryius Thomas (vs. BAL): 8 receptions, 93 yards, 1 touchdown—15.3 fantasy points
5. Calvin Johnson (at SD): 6 receptions, 84 yards, 1 touchdown—14.4 fantasy points 

Stats to Know 

• According to ESPN.com, Julio Jones ranked third last season among wide receivers with 164 targets. With a declining Roddy White and a backfield in flux, Jones could be leaned on even more as the season begins, especially against the Eagles’ poor pass defense, which gave up a league-high 26.1 fantasy points per game to wideouts last season, per ESPN.com. 

• Start John Brown with confidence in Week 1. The New Orleans Saints gave up 23.3 fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts last season, sixth-worst in the league. 

• New York Jets wideout Eric Decker got hot down the stretch last season—catching 19 passes for 342 yards and a touchdown over the final three weeks of the year—but he could get off to a slow start in 2015 against the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland’s secondary is the strength of their defense (if not the strength of their entire team), and the Browns gave up fewer than one receiving touchdown per game to wideouts last season.

What the Metrics Say

• Jordan Matthews led all receivers (that were in on the majority of their team’s snaps) by running 92.4 percent of his routes from the slot last season. He’s now the No. 1 receiving option in Philadelphia, but don’t expect his role to change. During the 2015 preseason, 93.9 percent of his snaps came from the slot. Matthews is in line for a huge night against the weak Falcons pass defense—and most, if not all of that damage will come from the slot.

• There’s no denying that Aaron Rodgers will miss Jordy Nelson, but he has quite the connection with Randall Cobb, too. Rodgers’ quarterback rating was 134.3 when throwing to Cobb last season, the highest mark between a QB-WR combination in the league. (Rodgers-Nelson was the second-best duo, checking in with a rating of 128.2.) Rodgers will feed the ball to Cobb as he adjusts to Nelson's absence.

• Pay attention to how well San Francisco’s receivers handle targets this week. Their two leading wideouts—Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin—were among the most prone to dropping passes last season. Smith dropped 11 passes (tied for second-most in the league) and Boldin dropped 10 (tied for fifth-most). That’s an average of over one drop per game between the two of them, which really adds up and impacts the fantasy value of not only themselves, but for the entire offense, especially quarterback Colin Kaepernick.

Tight Ends: Don’t Sleep on Jordan Reed

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Rob Gronkowski was No. 1 in the rankings, but he played on Thursday night, so he’s not included. (It seems Gronk cemented his No. 1 spot, as he caught five passes for 94 yards and three scores against the Pittsburgh Steelers for a total of 27.4 fantasy points.)

However, there are some solid options at the tight end position behind Gronkowski. Greg Olsen is by far Cam Newton’s most reliable target in Carolina, and we finally get to see Jimmy Graham play with Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks.

The Projections 

1. Greg Olsen (at JAX): 7 receptions, 82 yards, 1 touchdown—14.2 fantasy points
2. Jimmy Graham (at STL): 5 receptions, 70 yards, 1 touchdown—13 fantasy points
3. Travis Kelce (at HOU): 6 receptions, 66 yards, 1 touchdown—12.6 fantasy points
4. Martellus Bennett (vs. GB): 4 receptions, 64 yards, 1 touchdown—12.4 fantasy points
5. Jason Witten (vs. NYG): 5 receptions, 58 yards, 1 touchdown—11.8 fantasy points 

Stats to Know

• Washington Redskins tight end Jordan Reed got a boost when Kirk Cousins was named the team’s starting quarterback. Cousins looked Reed’s way often when the two were on the field together last season. Here’s a nugget from DraftKings analyst Adam Levitan:

"

Jordan Reed and Kirk Cousins only played in 2 games together last year. Reed went 8-92-0 at ARZ and 5-54-0 vs. TEN.

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 9, 2015"

• The Chicago Bears gave up 13 touchdowns to tight ends last season, second-most in the league, according to ESPN.com. This means a Green Bay Packers tight end—most likely Richard Rodgers—has a decent chance of scoring in Week 1.

What the Metrics Say

• Travis Kelce is a star in the making. He averaged 2.26 yards per route run last season, second only to Rob Gronkowski’s 2.53. In fact, dating back to 2010, only Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and Antonio Gates have posted higher yards-per-route-run averages during a season than Kelce’s 2.26. Here’s to hoping the Chiefs unleash him starting in Week 1.

• If you are rooting for a Delanie Walker touchdown, pay closer attention when he lines up in the slot. The Tennessee tight end caught four touchdowns last season, three of which came on routes run from the slot.

• There’s a good chance Zach Ertz scores a touchdown on Monday night against the Atlanta Falcons. As previously noted, the Falcons gave up the most passing yards per game last season. For his part, Ertz caught three touchdowns on passes 20-plus yards down the field last season, tied for most (with Antonio Gates) among tight ends that were in on the majority of their team’s snaps. In fact, Ertz caught just three touchdowns all season last year, meaning he was a deep-ball specialist when it came to scoring.

Kickers: No Place Like Dome for Matt Bryant

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

New England’s Stephen Gostkowski was the consensus No. 1 kickers for Week 1, and while he didn’t even attempt a field goal on Thursday night, he did nail all four of his extra-point attempts (which are from 33 yards out this season, not 19.)

The top five kickers are all expected to play in high-scoring games in Week 1, just like Gostkowski was expected to be in a high-scoring game on Thursday night.

The Projections

1. Dan Bailey (vs. NYG): 2/2 FGs, 4/4 XPs—10 fantasy points
2. Steven Hauschka (at STL): 2/2 FGs, 3/3 XPs—9 fantasy points
3. Matt Bryant (vs. PHI): 2/2 FGs, 3/3 XPs—9 fantasy points
4. Justin Tucker (at DEN): 2/2 FGs, 2/2 XPs—8 fantasy points
5. Mason Crosby (at CHI): 1/1 FG, 4/4 XPs—7 fantasy points 

Stats to Know

• Cody Parkey scored the second-most points among all fantasy kickers last season. He should get off to a good start this season, as he'll be playing in a dome against Atlanta in what should be a high-scoring affair.

• The 50-plus-yard field goals are gold from a fantasy football perspective, which is why Atlanta’s Matt Bryant sits near the top of the list this week. He connected on seven of 10 attempts from 50-plus yards last season, giving him both the most attempted and made field goals from that range. He’ll be playing in a dome on Monday night, and Atlanta should find themselves in scoring range often.

Defense and Special Teams: Attack the Teams with Questions at QB

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

There are a handful of streaming D/ST options out there in Week 1. The enticing option is the Miami Dolphins D/ST. The Dolphins play against the Washington Redskins in the first game of the season.

The Projections

1. Miami Dolphins (at WAS): 3 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 4 sacks
2. Seattle Seahawks (at STL): 2 interceptions, 4 sacks
3. Carolina Panthers (at JAX): 2 interceptions, 4 sacks
4. New York Jets (vs. CLE): 3 interceptions, 2 sacks
5. Cincinnati Bengals (at OAK): 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery, 2 sacks

Stats to Know

• When playing against the Jacksonville Jaguars last season, D/ST units scored an average of 13.3 fantasy points per game—by far the most in the league, according to ESPN.com. That’s why the Carolina Panthers—Jacksonville’s Week 1 opponent—ranks No. 3.

• The Redskins gave up 10.1 fantasy points per game to opposing D/ST units last season, fourth-most in the league. The Miami Dolphins, led by Ndamukong Suh, should have no problem putting up double-digit fantasy points against the Redskins, a team that will be quarterbacked by Kirk Cousins.

The rankings for each position come via the expert consensus rankings compiled by FantasyPros.

All basic stats courtesy of NFL.com unless otherwise noted. All stats in the “Metrics to Know” sections throughout the slideshow come via Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.