Ranking Each 2015 MLB Contender's Potential Playoff Rotation
It's been said that pitching wins championships, but it takes a team effort to have a chance to be called World Series champions. With roughly two weeks left in the regular season, we've got a pretty good idea as to which teams are truly contenders and who should be focused on 2016 and beyond.
So what better time to start speculating about what those contending rotations might look like come the playoffs—and rank them?
For our purposes, any team that sits more than five games out of a playoff spot will be deemed a non-contender and won't appear on this list. The rotations that follow are comprised as I believe they'd be if the playoffs started tomorrow.
How will we rank them? We'll grade each rotation across four statistical categories: wins above replacement (WAR, based on FanGraphs' calculations), fielding independent pitching (FIP, a better gauge of pitcher success than ERA), strikeouts per nine innings of work (K/9) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB).
Rotations will receive a score in each category that is equal to their ranking among contending rotations. For example, if the New York Mets ranked 11th in FIP, they'd get a score of 11 in that category. As is the case with most pitching metrics, the lower the score, the better the rotation.
We'll add the scores up across all four categories and use that cumulative score as the basis for our ranking.
Keep in mind, these statistics are only for the four pitchers in the rotation—those not in the postseason mix were not included as to not skew the numbers one way or another.
Additionally, pitchers who were traded during the season, such as David Price, will only have their numbers with the contending club used. What Price did in Detroit, for our purposes, is irrelevant. We are only interested in how he's performed with Toronto. Again, this is done to not skew the numbers.
Got it? Good. Let's get started.
14. Minnesota Twins
1 of 14
Projected Playoff Rotation
RHP Phil Hughes
RHP Kyle Gibson
RHP Mike Pelfrey
LHP Tommy Milone
Minnesota's Rotation by the Numbers
| FIP | 4.27 | 14 |
| WAR | 5.4 | 13 |
| K/9 | 5.58 | 14 |
| K/BB | 2.50 | 13 |
| Total Score | 54 |
Overview
It'd be far easier to get excited about the postseason prospects of Minnesota's rotation if Ricky Nolasco or Ervin Santana had pitched well enough to be included. But Nolasco has been out since late May after undergoing ankle surgery, while Santana has been mediocre since returning from an 80-game suspension related to performance-enhancing drugs.
Phil Hughes, who garnered support for the AL Cy Young Award last season after pitching to a 3.52 ERA and setting a new big league record with an 11.63 strikeout-to-walk ratio, hasn't been nearly as good this year, watching his ERA rise by nearly a full run and his strikeout rate plummet.
That leaves the Twins with a mediocre, inconsistent group, one that doesn't miss many bats, putting extra emphasis on the team's defense. Much like the rotation, Minnesota has delivered mixed results all season long in the field, depending on which advanced metric you want to judge its effectiveness by.
The only contending rotation to garner a score over 50, it's hard to envision any potential playoff matchup in which the Twins would have the edge on the mound.
13. Toronto Blue Jays
2 of 14
Projected Playoff Rotation
LHP David Price
RHP Marco Estrada
LHP Mark Buehrle
RHP R.A. Dickey
Toronto's Rotation by the Numbers
| FIP | 4.12 | 13 |
| WAR | 6.9 | 9 |
| K/9 | 5.86 | 13 |
| K/BB | 2.52 | 12 |
| Total Score | 47 |
Overview
As far as Toronto general manager Alex Anthopoulos is concerned, my omission of Marcus Stroman from the team's postseason rotation is, well, a mistake. “If he performs the way he did last year, it’s a no-brainer,” Anthopoulos told hosts Bob McCown and Arash Madani of his potential inclusion on Sportsnet 590 The Fan, via Jeff Simmons of Sportsnet. “It’s not even a debate.”
But it's silly to expect Stroman, who makes his season debut Saturday against the New York Yankees after missing all season with a torn ACL in his left knee, to be in top form. Allowing him to work out of the bullpen in the opening round of the playoffs makes far more sense.
Adding Stroman would require bumping either Mark Buehrle or R.A. Dickey from the rotation, and neither veteran figures to be overly effective or useful working in relief.
While you'd like to see better numbers across the board, the Blue Jays only need their starters to keep things close. Toronto's high-octane offense is capable of putting runs on the board against anyone the opposition might throw, making the group's No. 13 ranking less troubling than it would be for others.
12. Texas Rangers
3 of 14
Projected Playoff Rotation
LHP Cole Hamels
RHP Yovani Gallardo
LHP Derek Holland
RHP Colby Lewis
Texas' Rotation by the Numbers
| FIP | 4.04 | 11 |
| WAR | 5.7 | 12 |
| K/9 | 6.40 | 12 |
| K/BB | 2.53 | 11 |
| Total Score | 46 |
Overview
While much was made of Texas' addition of Cole Hamels at the trade deadline—and rightfully so—there was also the mid-August return of southpaw Derek Holland, who had been on the disabled list nearly all season with a strained muscle in his left shoulder.
Injuries have limited Holland in each of the past two seasons, but he's made an impact when he's on the mound. Upon returning to action last September, he pitched to a 1.46 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over 37 innings of work, walking five and striking out 25.
While he hasn't been quite as sharp this time around, Holland has still put up excellent numbers since returning to action: a 2.96 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over 36.1 innings with five walks and 30 strikeouts.
“The swing and miss is pretty impressive for a guy that has not pitched at this level for quite a while,” Rangers manager Jeff Banister told the Star-Telegram's Mac Engel last month, with pitching coach Mike Maddux adding that Holland looked like the same guy who dominated last September.
The rotation's overall numbers might not be that impressive, but Hamels, Yovani Gallardo and Holland give the Rangers a threesome that's capable of shutting down the opposition every time they step on the mound.
Colby Lewis might not be on the same level as those three, but as he showed Friday night, when he took a perfect game against Oakland into the eighth inning, he's no slouch either.
.png?w=256)
11. Kansas City Royals
4 of 14
Projected Playoff Rotation
RHP Johnny Cueto
RHP Edinson Volquez
RHP Yordano Ventura
LHP Danny Duffy
Kansas City's Rotation by the Numbers
| FIP | 3.87 | 9 |
| WAR | 6.3 | 10 |
| K/9 | 7.01 | 11 |
| K/BB | 2.32 | 14 |
| Total Score | 44 |
Overview
Four starts, 20 innings, 21 earned runs, 37 hits, a 9.45 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP. It looks and reads like a stat line out of a ballplayer's nightmare.
But that's reality for Kansas City ace Johnny Cueto, who has looked nothing like the dominant force the Royals thought they were getting when they sent a three-player package to Cincinnati for the 29-year-old hurler.
“I know there’s a lot of concern around the baseball world about Johnny," manager Ned Yost told the Kansas City Star's Andy McCullough. "But there’s none in our locker room. We think Johnny’s going to be ready to help us hopefully win a world championship.”
Aside from Cueto's horrid recent performance, you'd expect Kansas City's rotation to miss more bats than it does, considering both Cueto and Edinson Volquez have 200-strikeout seasons on their resumes and Yordano Ventura looks like a future member of the 200-strikeout club.
But only three contenders fan fewer batters per nine innings than the Royals, and while the team's defense remains one of its strong suits, especially with the return of left fielder Alex Gordon, that's a bit of a concern for a team with the American League's best record (83-57).
10. Los Angeles Angels
5 of 14
Projected Playoff Rotation
RHP Garrett Richards
LHP Hector Santiago
RHP Jered Weaver
LHP Andrew Heaney
Los Angeles' Rotation by the Numbers
| FIP | 3.95 | 10 |
| WAR | 5.2 | 14 |
| K/9 | 7.74 | 10 |
| K/BB | 2.95 | 9 |
| Total Score | 43 |
Overview
Los Angeles' rotation hasn't necessarily failed to live up to expectations in 2015, but the group's combined numbers certainly leave something to be desired.
With three starters boasting an ERA under 3.75—Garrett Richards (3.71), Hector Santiago (3.24) and rookie southpaw Andrew Heaney (3.52)—you'd expect better peripherals from the group. Jered Weaver has been bad at times, but he alone isn't enough to drag the group's numbers down this far.
It comes down to the fact that it's a group that, more often than not, is adequate, not outstanding. If the Angels reach the playoffs, they're going to need all four members of the rotation to raise the level of their games, especially Heaney, who has flashed ace stuff at times.
T8. New York Yankees
6 of 14
Projected Playoff Rotation
RHP Masahiro Tanaka
RHP Michael Pineda
RHP Ivan Nova
RHP Luis Severino
New York's Rotation by the Numbers
| FIP | 3.77 | 8 |
| WAR | 6.3 | 10 |
| K/9 | 7.97 | 8 |
| K/BB | 4.05 | 4 |
| Total Score | 30 |
Overview
Even with Nathan Eovaldi's status for the playoffs in question because of elbow inflammation, I can't reasonably slot CC Sabathia into New York's potential playoff rotation. That opens the door for 21-year-old rookie Luis Severino, who is immensely talented but relatively unproven on the major league level.
While Severino and his rotation-mates have done a reasonably good job of limiting walks and getting the opposition to swing and miss, it's a group that, as a whole, has been underwhelming.
Masahiro Tanaka has been good but nowhere near as dominant a force as he was during his rookie campaign in 2014, while Ivan Nova has struggled a bit in his return from Tommy John surgery, allowing at least three earned runs in six consecutive starts.
That puts the pressure on Michael Pineda, who leads the group in WAR (3.3), K/9 (8.8) and K/BB (7.33), to deliver an ace-like performance when he takes the mound. But with the 26-year-old's shaky injury history, can the Yankees count on him to not only make it to the playoffs but hold up once they arrive?
Both Pineda and Tanaka are capable of delivering ace-like performances. Whether they're up to the task of doing that in the team's first postseason appearance since 2012 will ultimately dictate how deep of a run the club is able to make.
That lack of depth could be the Yankees' downfall.
T8. Houston Astros
7 of 14
Projected Playoff Rotation
LHP Dallas Keuchel
RHP Collin McHugh
LHP Scott Kazmir
RHP Mike Fiers
Houston's Rotation by the Numbers
| FIP | 3.35 | 6 |
| WAR | 9.9 | 8 |
| K/9 | 7.86 | 9 |
| K/BB | 3.34 | 7 |
| Total Score | 30 |
Overview
Houston's projected playoff rotation might be tied with New York's in terms of points on our list, but there's not a baseball fan around who would take the Yankees rotation over the foursome the Astros will be sending to the mound in the team's first playoff appearance in a decade.
Even without Scott Feldman, who will miss the rest of the season with a sprained right shoulder, Houston boasts a deep, quality rotation that is capable of pitching deep into games and shutting down the opposition.
Led by Dallas Keuchel, the favorite to take home AL Cy Young Award honors, three of Houston's four starters boast an ERA under 3.15.
The lone holdout, Collin McHugh, has pitched to a more than respectable 3.89 mark and has a 3.1 WAR that is second only to Keuchel's (5.5). With Scott Kazmir and Mike Fiers rounding things out, the Astros rotation is in excellent shape and could easily outperform its regular-season numbers in the playoffs.
7. St. Louis Cardinals
8 of 14
Projected Playoff Rotation
RHP Michael Wacha
RHP Carlos Martinez
RHP Lance Lynn
RHP Jaime Garcia
St. Louis' Rotation by the Numbers
| FIP | 3.25 | 4 |
| WAR | 11.1 | 6 |
| K/9 | 8.22 | 7 |
| K/BB | 2.93 | 10 |
| Total Score | 27 |
Overview
I was as surprised as you to find St. Louis' rotation sitting in the middle of the pack on this list, as it's the Cardinals pitching that has led them to baseball's best regular-season record (88-52). But the numbers don't lie, and they say this foursome simply isn't as good as what other contenders have to offer.
That said, I certainly wouldn't want to face any of the Cardinals starters in a short series.
Noticeably absent from the mix is John Lackey, who has put together a stellar season and sits tied with Michael Wacha for the rotation lead in WAR (3.1). But with Wacha, Carlos Martinez and Lance Lynn locked into rotation spots, it comes down to Lackey versus Jaime Garcia.
With the way Garcia has pitched (2.33 ERA, 3.01 FIP), he gets the nod over Lackey (2.89 ERA, 3.63 FIP), though you really couldn't go wrong with either one.
In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if manager Mike Matheny ultimately went with a foursome of Wacha, Lackey, Garcia and Lynn, bumping Carlos Martinez. While Martinez doesn't deserve to get bumped, he's the only one of the five with extensive experience working out of the bullpen in the playoffs.
6. Tampa Bay Rays
9 of 14
Projected Playoff Rotation
RHP Chris Archer
RHP Nate Karns
RHP Jake Odorizzi
RHP Erasmo Ramirez
Tampa Bay's Rotation by the Numbers
| FIP | 4.05 | 12 |
| WAR | 11.1 | 6 |
| K/9 | 8.92 | 2 |
| K/BB | 3.43 | 6 |
| Total Score | 22 |
Overview
Among American League contenders, only Houston's Dallas Keuchel (5.8) has a higher WAR than Tampa Bay's Chris Archer (5.3), yet the 26-year-old Archer gets nowhere near as much hype as his heavily bearded counterpart.
Part of that is certainly because of the fact that Archer pitches in Tampa Bay, which boasts one of the best strikeout-inducing rotations in all of baseball. Averaging nearly a strikeout per inning, the Rays trail only Cleveland when it comes to making the opposition swing and miss.
But advanced metrics aren't kind to the rotation when it comes to FIP, with both Nate Karns and Erasmo Ramirez posting numbers on the wrong side of 4.00, while Archer's WAR is nearly equal to the combined totals of Karns (1.5), Ramirez (1.5) and Jake Odorizzi (3.0).
That said, you'd have to give the Rays the edge in the AL Wild Card Game with Archer on the mound.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
10 of 14
Projected Playoff Rotation
RHP Gerrit Cole
LHP Francisco Liriano
RHP A.J. Burnett
LHP Jeff Locke
Pittsburgh's Rotation by the Numbers
| FIP | 3.23 | 3 |
| WAR | 11.7 | 5 |
| K/9 | 8.24 | 6 |
| K/BB | 2.96 | 8 |
| Total Score | 22 |
Overview
Had A.J. Burnett not missed more than a month with an inflamed right elbow, chances are that Pittsburgh's rotation would have fared better in the strikeout department when compared to other contending rotations.
Should the Bucs wind up in the NL Wild Card Game, both Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano have proved to be effective postseason performers, giving skipper Clint Hurdle options as to which one of his starters he wants to put on the hill.
While Burnett has been less than stellar in the playoffs over his career (6.37 ERA, 1.59 WHIP), that he's set to retire at the end of the season could find Burnett elevating his game to another level in an attempt to extend his career as long as he possibly can.
The Pirates certainly hold their own across the four categories we're ranking rotations on, and while playing half their games in the pitcher-friendly confines of PNC Park plays a role in the group's 3.23 FIP, this is a talented group capable of going toe-to-toe with any rotation in a short series.
4. Cleveland Indians
11 of 14
Projected Playoff Rotation
RHP Corey Kluber
RHP Trevor Bauer
RHP Danny Salazar
RHP Carlos Carrasco
Cleveland's Rotation by the Numbers
| FIP | 3.42 | 7 |
| WAR | 13.0 | 3 |
| K/9 | 9.60 | 1 |
| K/BB | 3.82 | 5 |
| Total Score | 16 |
Overview
If you're looking for the reason Cleveland remains in contention, look no further than its rotation, which has been one of baseball's most consistent and overpowering for much of the regular season.
Led by defending AL Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber, the Tribe lead all contenders with nearly 10 strikeouts per nine innings of work. Kluber (5.76) and Carlos Carrasco (5.09) both average more than five strikeouts for every walk they issue, while three of the team's four starters have WARs above 2.0.
If there's a weak spot, it'd be Trevor Bauer, who ranks last among the group in K/9 (8.7), K/BB (2.19) and WAR. But when you consider that those numbers would make Bauer the ace or No. 2 starter in multiple rotations, it's not exactly fair to call him a weak spot.
Sitting 4.5 games out of a wild-card berth, the Indians still have work to do before they reach the promised land. But should they make the playoffs, this is one rotation no contender is going to want to face.
3. New York Mets
12 of 14
Projected Playoff Rotation
RHP Jacob deGrom
RHP Matt Harvey
LHP Noah Syndergaard
RHP Bartolo Colon
New York's Rotation by the Numbers
| FIP | 3.28 | 5 |
| WAR | 13.0 | 3 |
| K/9 | 8.42 | 5 |
| K/BB | 4.93 | 1 |
| Total Score | 14 |
Overview
Matt Harvey insists that he'll pitch in the playoffs, as he wrote for the Players' Tribune, and both Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom are locks in the rotation, leaving the New York Mets with one spot for three pitchers—Bartolo Colon, Stephen Matz and Jon Niese.
While manager Terry Collins told MLB.com's Joe Trezza that he didn't envision Syndergaard, Niese or Matz pitching out of the bullpen in the playoffs last month, Colon deserves the final spot in the team's rotation, as Albert Chen recently wrote for SI.com: "It’s so easy to dismiss Colon as an innings-eater, a bit player carrying the load for now to keep the kids fresh, but if he keeps mowing down lineups through September, there’s no way Collins can deny the old warhorse a spot in the postseason rotation."
The 42-year-old has allowed two earned runs over his last 31.2 innings of work and become a cult hero in New York for his unorthodox methods, non-athletic physique and youthful exuberance.
With Colon in the fold, the Mets playoff rotation ranks no worse than fifth across any of our four categories, and no contending rotation does a better job of limiting free passes. Limiting baserunners is key to winning playoff baseball, and few rotations do a better job of that than New York's.
2. Chicago Cubs
13 of 14
Projected Playoff Rotation
RHP Jake Arrieta
LHP Jon Lester
RHP Jason Hammel
RHP Kyle Hendricks
Chicago's Rotation by the Numbers
| FIP | 3.09 | 2 |
| WAR | 14.6 | 1 |
| K/9 | 8.83 | 3 |
| K/BB | 4.07 | 3 |
| Total Score | 9 |
Overview
It's easy to be overshadowed by Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester, but both Jason Hammel and Kyle Hendricks have put together excellent campaigns for the Chicago Cubs, giving the team one of the best rotations in all of baseball.
All four starters can boast of WARs above 2.0, while only Hendricks fails to average more than a strikeout per inning (7.8) or at least four strikeouts for every walk he issues (3.38). Those numbers would make him one of the better starters on a number of contending rotations.
"I don't think he gets talked about enough," general manager Jed Hoyer said of Hendricks in an interview with CSN Chicago's Tony Andracki late last month. "You look up, and he's been really good for us. You know what you're gonna get out of him on a game-to-game basis.
"He throws strikes, he changes speeds, you know he's exceptionally well-prepared for each game. I think everyone focuses on [Lester and Arrieta], but Hendricks and Hammel have been a huge factor for us."
With four quality starters having quality seasons, the Cubs are in position to make a deep playoff run so long as their bats continue to put runs on the board.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
14 of 14
Projected Playoff Rotation
LHP Clayton Kershaw
RHP Zack Greinke
LHP Brett Anderson
LHP Alex Wood
Los Angeles' Rotation by the Numbers
| FIP | 2.88 | 1 |
| WAR | 14.6 | 1 |
| K/9 | 8.63 | 4 |
| K/BB | 4.34 | 2 |
| Total Score | 8 |
Overview
Say what you will about Clayton Kershaw's postseason woes, but is there anyone else you want on the mound with your season on the line?
Of course not.
Kershaw and Zack Greinke comprise the most dominant, fearsome duo any contender can roll out in a short series. End of story. Save the Lester/Arrieta, Harvey/deGrom arguments for another day. For they simply don't hold up against this dynamic duo.
Sure, Kershaw's postseason woes are worrisome, and the Dodgers are top-heavy in the rotation, with a pretty substantial drop to No. 3 Brett Anderson and No. 4 Alex Wood. And that lack of depth may ultimately be Los Angeles' downfall in the postseason.
But in terms of raw numbers among contending clubs, it doesn't get any better than what the Dodgers have to offer.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs and are current through September 10. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
.png?w=480)
