Every MLB Contender's 2015 Playoff Odds with 1 Month Remaining
There is roughly one month remaining in the 2015 MLB season, and the postseason picture is really starting to take shape.
The Kansas City Royals, New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers all look like locks to win their respective divisions, but the other three are still very much up for grabs.
The AL East is the tightest race at the moment, and the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees' weekend matchup will be a big one in determining who comes out on top.
Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers have closed the gap significantly on the Houston Astros in the AL West.
The NL Central does not carry quite as much pressure, as the St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs all appear to be locks for October, but what order those three finish in the standings and who will host the Wild Card Game has yet to be determined.
With so much still to be decided, let's take a quick updated look at each contender's odds of reaching the playoffs.
*Note: While no one has been mathematically eliminated from the postseason just yet, not everyone has a realistic chance of reaching the playoffs. Teams listed as non-contenders can be assumed as having less than a 2 percent chance of making the postseason. Chances for non-contenders were not factored into the overall chance percentage points (500 percent in each league, since there are five spots).
AL East
1 of 6
Contenders
Toronto Blue Jays (79-60, +1.5 in AL East)
The Blue Jays have been the best team in baseball since they picked up David Price, Troy Tulowitzki and a handful of others at the trade deadline, going 26-9 and turning a six-game deficit in the AL East into a 1.5-game lead. The Yankees aren't going away, though, and this weekend's series between the two teams could go a long way in deciding who wins the division.
That being said, with a seven-game cushion for a wild-card spot, the Blue Jays look to be as close to a lock as anyone to reach the postseason.
Postseason Chances: 99 percent
New York Yankees (77-61, +5.5 in AL Wild Card)
With seven games left against the Blue Jays, a three-game series with the New York Mets and a four-game set against a Boston Red Sox team that will be plenty motivated to play spoiler, the Yankees still have some tough games left on the schedule.
Two key players in Mark Teixeira and Nathan Eovaldi could be sidelined the rest of the way, according to Grace Raynor and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com, so that doesn't help either. Still, with a 5.5-game cushion, a good group of veteran leaders and some solid young talent in place, a late-season collapse seems unlikely.
Postseason Chances: 99 percent
Non-Contenders
Tampa Bay Rays (68-71)
Baltimore Orioles (67-72)
Boston Red Sox (66-73)
AL Central
2 of 6
Contenders
Kansas City Royals (83-56, +11.0 in AL Central)
With an 11-game lead in the division and 23 games to play, the Royals have the biggest cushion of any team in the American League. With Alex Gordon back healthy and Yordano Ventura hitting his stride alongside Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez in the rotation, this team looks poised for another deep postseason run.
Postseason Chances: 99 percent
Minnesota Twins (72-67, -1.5 in AL Wild Card)
One of the biggest surprises of the 2015 season, the Twins are still in a position to sneak into a wild-card spot. A 4.79 ERA since the All-Star break speaks to a pitching staff that may have been playing over its head in the first half, and they really don't have that one guy they can lean on to get them a big win. Miguel Sano is a stud, though, and the offense remains as dangerous as any when it's firing on all cylinders.
Postseason Chances: 11 percent
Cleveland Indians (68-70, -5 in AL Wild Card)
The Indians have put together some impressive late-season pushes the past two years, and at five games back for the second wild-card spot, they can't be completely counted out just yet. With seven games each against the Royals and Twins, they'll have to take charge against their own division if they want to pull off the surprise.
Postseason Chances: 2 percent
Non-Contenders
Chicago White Sox (66-72)
Detroit Tigers (64-75)
AL West
3 of 6
Contenders
Houston Astros (76-64, +2.0 in AL West)
The Astros have slowly seen their lead in the division slip away as the Texas Rangers have been among the hottest teams in baseball, but they are still in a great position to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2005. The return of George Springer should provide the offense with a huge spark, but their 5.01 ERA so far in September will have to improve.
Postseason Chances: 91 percent
Texas Rangers (73-65, +1.5 in AL Wild Card)
With a 26-13 record in their last 39 games, the Rangers have gone from an afterthought at eight games back in the division and five games under .500 to a serious contender for the AL West title. With Cole Hamels again looking like an ace and a healthy Derek Holland pitching as well as anyone right now, they finally appear to have the arms to back what has been a much-improved offense this year.
Postseason Chances: 89 percent
Los Angeles Angels (70-69, -3.5 in AL Wild Card)
After putting up the best record in the AL last year and returning essentially the same team sans Howie Kendrick, it's been a disappointing season for the Angels. With six games left against the Astros, four with the Rangers and four with the Twins, they'll have plenty of room to make up ground in the wild-card standings, but they'll need to flip the switch soon.
Postseason Chances: 10 percent
Non-Contenders
Seattle Mariners (67-73)
Oakland Athletics (60-80)
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NL East
4 of 6
Contenders
New York Mets (78-61, +7.0 in NL East)
Since trading for Yoenis Cespedes at the deadline, the Mets have gone 25-11 and averaged 6.14 runs per game, as what was once an anemic offensive attack now has the firepower to back their terrific starting pitching. Their recent three-game sweep of the Nationals should be the final straw in the NL East race, and with 17 games left against the Marlins, Phillies, Braves and Reds, they should have no problem finishing strong.
Postseason Chances: 98 percent
Washington Nationals (71-68, -9.5 in NL Wild Card)
Despite a 12-17 month of August and a disappointing season as a whole, the Nationals still entered their three-game series with the Mets earlier this week just four games back in the NL East. However, a three-game sweep by the Mets may wind up being the final nail in the coffin. Their next 17 games are against teams with a losing record before they close out the year with three games against the Mets, but the Nats look like a postseason long shot at best after the sweep.
Postseason Chances: 6 percent
Non-Contenders
Miami Marlins (59-81)
Atlanta Braves (56-84)
Philadelphia Phillies (54-86)
NL Central
5 of 6
Contenders
St. Louis Cardinals (88-51, +4.5 in NL Central)
The Cardinals have had the best record in baseball for most of the season—on the strength of a pitching staff that has posted an MLB-best 2.81 ERA and an offense that has done a great job dealing with injuries. With guys like Randal Grichuk and Matt Adams returning to the roster, and Matt Holliday and perhaps even Adam Wainwright on the way, they're a lock for a playoff spot.
Postseason Chances: 99 percent
Pittsburgh Pirates (83-55, +12.0 in NL Wild Card)
If not for a subpar 26-24 start over the first two months of the season, it would be the Pirates everyone is chasing for the best record in the NL. Since the beginning of June, they've gone an MLB-best 57-31 and have looked very much like the best team in baseball at times. Now that everyone is back healthy, they have the depth to make a serious run at the Cardinals.
Postseason Chances: 99 percent
Chicago Cubs (80-58, +9.0 in NL Wild Card)
Had you asked most Cubs fans at the beginning of the year, a winning record and some marked improvement by the young core would have constituted a successful season. Instead, they've made a run at contention a year sooner than expected and have been one of the best teams in all of baseball. The bullpen has been shaky of late, but they have a big enough cushion in the wild-card race that they look like a lock. Their upcoming four-game series with the Pirates will be a big one in determining who hosts the Wild Card Game.
Postseason Chances: 99 percent
Non-Contenders
Milwaukee Brewers (61-78)
Cincinnati Reds (57-81)
NL West
6 of 6
Contenders
Los Angeles Dodgers (80-59, +8.5 in NL West)
Much like the Mets' recent sweep of the Nationals, it appears the Dodgers all but tied a bow on their latest NL West title with their sweep of the Giants last week. At 13-3 in their last 16 games, they're playing as well as anyone right now, and while questions remain about the bullpen and back of the rotation, this still looks like a dangerous team come October.
Postseason Chances: 99 percent
Non-Contenders
San Francisco Giants (72-68)
Arizona Diamondbacks (67-73)
San Diego Padres (67-73)
Colorado Rockies (57-82)
All stats and record information come courtesy of Baseball-Reference.
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