5 Pivotal Factors to Decide Champions League Group H
All UEFA Champions League groups are not created equal.
Far from being a group of death, Group H looks like a group of life. At least three of the four teams will feel they have a good chance to finish first, though none will stand out above the rest.
Zenit St. Petersburg were the top-seeded team, but La Liga side Valencia and Ligue 1 outfit Lyon likely won't fear the Russian Premier League winners. Belgian champions Gent round out the group.
Here, B/R outlines five pivotal factors that could decide the outcome of the group.
Group H Fixtures
1 of 6
Here is an overview of the fixtures in Group H. The home team is listed first.
Sept. 16
Valencia vs. Zenit St. Petersburg
Gent vs. Lyon
Sept. 29
Lyon vs. Valencia
Zenit vs. Gent
Oct. 20
Zenit vs. Lyon
Valencia vs. Gent
Nov. 4
Lyon vs. Zenit
Gent vs. Valencia
Nov. 24
Zenit vs. Valencia
Lyon vs. Gent
Dec. 9
Valencia vs. Lyon
Gent vs. Zenit
A Trip to Russia
2 of 6
A trip to Russia in wintertime can be a frightening prospect. Fortunately for Zenit's three group-stage opponents, all of the games in Group H will come well before the worst of the weather descends on St. Petersburg.
But for Valencia, a match at Zenit on Nov. 24 could prove challenging. According to the BBC, the average high temperature in St. Petersburg in November is 2C, or about 35F. That's not unbearable, but it's cold enough to suggest that the weather could become a factor.
That's especially true compared to Gent's and Lyon's trips to Russia. Those two sides will play at Zenit on Sept. 29 and Oct. 20 respectively, when conditions should be comparatively manageable.
A Wide-Open Group
3 of 6
All Champions League groups are not created equal. Zenit St. Petersburg won the Russian Premier League last season, but their UEFA coefficient made them the second-weakest side statistically in Pot 1. Rather than a fearsome top seed, Andre Villas-Boas' side represented a good draw for teams in the other three pots.
The other teams in Group H aren't vastly superior to the Russian champions.
Valencia appear the strongest team based on their squad, but they haven't played in the group stage the last two seasons.
Lyon, going by UEFA's coefficients, are a middle-of-the-road Champions League team, which their recent European record confirms. The Ligue 1 outfit reached the Champions League semifinals in 2009-10 but only reached the Europa League in each of the three seasons before this one.
That leaves Gent, a club that last season won the first league title of its 115-year history. That's a heartwarming story, but the Belgians have no experience at this level and thus could be the odd team out in an otherwise evenly matched group.
Group H, then, could come down to the other three teams' results against Gent, assuming they play each other relatively evenly.
Will Home Form Push Valencia Through?
4 of 6
Valencia are back in the Champions League group stage after an absence of two years, and Los Che hardly could have asked for a better draw. Nuno Espirito Santo's men didn't just avoid the best of the seeded teams, they might have landed in a group they can win.
After finishing fourth in La Liga last season, Valencia had to go through the playoff round to qualify for the group stage. There, Los Che had a tough task against Monaco, who reached the quarterfinals last season. But with a 4-3 aggregate victory, Valencia showed they are capable of beating Champions League-caliber sides.
So can they win the group? Much could depend on home form. Last season, Valencia had a sterling record at the Mestalla, winning 15 of 19 games (with three draws and one defeat). Only Barcelona and Real Madrid were better at home.
On the road, however, Valencia were average, winning seven, drawing eight and losing four. That form translated to the playoff round of qualifying, with Valencia beating Monaco 3-1 at home but losing 2-1 away.
In the group stage, Los Che will play two of their first three games at home, hosting Zenit and Gent. Taking full points in those games would boost the team's ambitions for reaching the group stage, or even winning the group.
Can Lyon Overcome Fekir Loss?
5 of 6
Lyon stumbled through a poor preseason program, notably losing 6-0 to Arsenal in the Emirates Cup. Preseason results are notoriously unreliable, though, and Les Gones recovered with a decent start to the Ligue 1 season, taking seven points from their first four matches.
Over the international break, though, Lyon suffered a blow when forward Nabil Fekir suffered cruciate ligament damage while playing for France. Early reports indicated that Fekir, the reigning Ligue 1 Young Player of the Year, would miss six months. Speaking to the club's official website (h/t ESPN FC), manager Hubert Fournier couldn't hide his grief over the loss:
"We're thinking of Nabil who's been punished in a personal capacity for a relatively long time. They're talking about six months, like Milan (Bisevac) last season.
He dropped by the club this morning. Apart from supporting him, the only thing we can try to do is to perform as well as possible so that he can come back in the best circumstances and experience a nice end to the season with us.
"
Fekir, 22, scored 13 goals and assisted nine more last season as Lyon pushed PSG most of the season for the Ligue 1 title. Before joining France for international duty, he had scored a hat-trick against Caen.
The question isn't whether Lyon will miss Fekir's production. The question is whether the Ligue 1 side can overcome it.
Will Zenit Be Worthy of a Top Seed?
6 of 6
We've been pretty tough on Zenit St. Petersburg in this article, but it's nothing personal. It's just that, compared to fellow top seeds like Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, the Russian champions don't have a squad to strike fear into the hearts of their opponents.
To their credit, Zenit have a dangerous, powerful forward in the aptly monikered Hulk, and they managed to hold onto Axel Witsel during the transfer window. Depth is an issue, though, so Andre Villas-Boas' side might be limited in tight games that can be turned with a shrewd substitution.
Zenit weren't the most fearsome top seed in the draw. But now the Russian champions have a chance to prove they belonged in Pot 1.
