5 Pivotal Factors to Decide Champions League Group F
Bayern Munich's quest for another UEFA Champions League title will begin in Group F with Arsenal, Olympiakos and Dinamo Zagreb.
The German side will be heavily favored to advance, with Arsenal widely tipped to take second place. But Group F might be closer than some expect, as Olympiakos have a fine record against the Gunners in Piraeus.
Here, B/R selects five pivotal factors that could decide the outcome of the group.
Group F Fixtures
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Here is an overview of the fixtures in Group F. The home team is listed first.
Sept. 16
Dinamo vs. Arsenal
Olympiakos vs. Bayern
Sept. 29
Bayern vs. Dinamo
Arsenal vs. Olympiakos
Oct. 20
Arsenal vs. Bayern
Dinamo vs. Olympiakos
Nov. 4
Bayern vs. Arsenal
Olympiakos vs. Dinamo
Nov. 24
Arsenal vs. Dinamo
Bayern vs. Olympiakos
Dec. 9
Dinamo vs. Bayern
Olympiakos vs. Arsenal
Can Arsenal Win in Greece?
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Three times Arsenal have traveled to Greece to play Olympiakos in the Champions League group stage. All three times, in December of 2009, 2011 and 2012, the Gunners lost.
In fairness, all three of those losses came on the final matchday, with Arsenal having already qualified for the knockout phase. Arsene Wenger, therefore, might have managed each match differently if qualification had been at stake. And yet there's no way around it—Arsenal's record at Olympiakos is poor.
The same two teams will play again this season, and once again, Arsenal will travel to Olympiakos in December on the final matchday of group play. If history is any guide, the Gunners should aim to qualify for the knockout round before flying to Greece.
Can Arsenal Sort out the Attack Before the Trip to Bayern?
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Although Arsenal's record at Olympiakos is poor (see the previous slide for more), the most daunting fixture for Arsene Wenger's side comes on Matchday 4. That's when the Gunners will travel to Bavaria to play Bayern Munich at the Allianz Arena.
Bayern are one of Europe's top sides at present, and will be formidable in their home stadium. The Bundesliga side regularly reaches the Champions League semifinal stage or better, winning the title in 2013.
With the treacherous trip looming on Matchday 4, Arsenal would benefit from starting well in the group. The Gunners open with a match at Dinamo Zagreb on Sept. 16, followed by home matches against Olympiakos and Bayern.
If Arsenal want to challenge Bayern for first place in the group—or even if they just want to put enough space between themselves and Olympiakos before the trip to Greece—they really need to win all three games.
Doing so will require significant improvement on the stale attacking play Arsenal have shown early in the season. In four Premier League games before the recent international break, the Gunners scored just three goals, failing to find the net in two home fixtures. At the time of this writing, the team's top scorer is, embarrassingly, "own goal."
Even so, Wenger decided against signing a new forward in the transfer market, instead carrying on with the players he already has.
Olivier Giroud remains first-choice at center forward, with Theo Walcott an option in the middle or on the wing. Alexis Sanchez prefers the wing but can play centrally as well. Danny Welbeck is out with a long-term injury, while Wenger has never seemed entirely convinced by Joel Campbell.
Of those players, Sanchez poses the greatest threat, but the Chilean has been short of his best early in the season. As B/R's James McNicholas notes:
"(H)aving been rushed back into action after his post-Copa America break, Alexis looks some way short of the player who terrorised defences in 2014/15. He is still looking for his first goal of the season, having missed a number of presentable opportunities.
He hasn't become a poor finisher overnight, so his struggles can only be explained by his relative lack of match practise. Wenger will hope he is able to find the net sooner rather than later, as his confidence and conviction in front of goal will surely improve.
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A fully fit Sanchez would certainly make Arsenal more dangerous, but the team's early struggles in front of goal suggest deeper problems. Unless Wenger can sort out these issues, the Gunners will continue to perform poorly in the attacking third.
Can Anyone Beat Bayern?
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We've spent the first two slides of this article discussing issues around Arsenal, but make no mistake: Bayern Munich are the favorites to win Group F. We know it, their opponents know it and Bayern's players know it, too.
“We always enjoyed playing against Arsenal," Bayern defender Jerome Boateng said, per the Daily Mirror. "London has been a good omen for us."
Midfielder Thiago Alcantara, being slightly more diplomatic, added:
"The draw is good for us and we should be able to get through this phase. Arsenal are an excellent team and Olympiacos and Zagreb have strong teams and are made difficult by their stadiums. But it would be a big surprise if Bayern and Arsenal did not get through. There are harder groups than this.
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Boateng and Alcantara have good reason to be confident. The Bavarians have reached the Champions League semifinals each of the last four seasons, winning the title in 2012-13 and finishing second the year before. In addition, they eliminated Arsenal twice in the last three years, winning in London both times.
Over the summer, manager Pep Guardiola added Douglas Costa and Arturo Vidal, a pair of top-class players, to a squad already brimming with quality. Apart from Barcelona and Real Madrid, few teams can compete with Bayern on talent alone.
On paper, Bayern should win this group without too many problems.
Will Dinamo Be Anything Other Than Makeweights?
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At the other end of the Group F spectrum sit Dinamo Zagreb. After winning the Croatian league and cup in 2014-15, Zoran Mamic's men edged Molde in the third qualifying round before sealing a place in the group stage with an easy aggregate victory over Skenderbeu.
The quality of competition will be much greater in the group stage, where Dinamo have not competed since 2012-13. But the schedule offers a bit of hope for the Croatians, who play at home in two of their first three games.
After hosting Arsenal on Matchday 1, Zagreb will have to play the mighty Bayern at the Allianz Arena. But that's followed by another home game against Olympiakos. If the Croatians are going to spring a surprise, they'll need as many points as possible from those two early home dates.
Can Olympiakos Take Points from a Tough Start?
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When the fixture list came out for Group F, Olympiakos must have immediately known they were in for a challenge. As ever, the Greeks will be tough to beat in Piraeus, but the problem is that two of the Reds' first three matches come away from home.
And the only home game, on Matchday 1, is against Bayern, the group favorites.
After that, Olympiakos must travel to Arsenal, where they have lost three of three Champions League group-stage matches. On Matchday 3, Marco Silva's men will travel to Croatia to play Dinamo Zagreb. By that point, the Reds might still be sitting on zero points, which would make the trip to Zagreb an early must-win.
If Olympiakos are to challenge Arsenal for second place in the group, they'll probably have to show good away form early on.
