5 Pivotal Factors to Decide Champions League Group D
In the 2015-16 UEFA Champions League, Group D stands for the group of death.
At the head of the queue—at least before the matches begin—stand Juventus, the four-time defending Italian champions and 2014-15 Champions League runners-up. But the quality doesn't stop with the top-seeded side.
Manchester City finished second in the Premier League last season, one year after lifting the trophy for a second time in three years. Sevilla have won back-to-back Europa League titles. Borussia Monchengladbach finished third in the Bundesliga last term.
Here B/R selects five pivotal factors that could decide Group D.
Group D Fixtures
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Here is an overview of the fixtures in Group D. The home team is listed first.
Sept. 15
Manchester City vs. Juventus
Sevilla vs. Borussia Monchengladbach
Sept. 30
Gladbach vs. Man City
Juventus vs. Sevilla
Oct. 21
Juventus vs. Gladbach
Man City vs. Sevilla
Nov. 3
Gladbach vs. Juventus
Sevilla vs. Man City
Nov. 25
Juventus vs. Man City
Gladbach vs. Sevilla
Dec. 8
Man City vs. Gladbach
Sevilla vs. Juventus
Another Tough Draw
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It's become a Champions League tradition in recent seasons. Every year, late in the summer, Manchester City receive a difficult draw.
Last season, Manuel Pellegrini's side drew Bayern Munich, Roma and CSKA Moscow. The year before that, City faced Bayern, CSKA and Viktoria Plzen. In 2012-13, their opponents were Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund and Ajax.
This time is no different. While not as daunting as Bayern or Real Madrid, Juventus represent a challenge. The Italians reached the Champions League final last season and breezed to yet another Serie A title. Sevilla, meanwhile, won the Europa League for a second straight year, and Borussia Monchengladbach took third place in the Bundesliga.
Could it have been worse? Probably, but City probably received the toughest draw of any English team in the competition. However, one upside to receiving consistently tough draws is that Pellegrini and his players should be prepared this time around.
The experience of the previous campaign could prove especially valuable. Through four games, City were winless and had just two points after drawing with Roma at home and CSKA away. But Pellegrini's side rallied with wins over Bayern at the Etihad Stadium and Roma in the Olimpico to claim second place on the final matchday.
With a better start this time, City will feel confident of their chances to win the group. Matchday 1 could prove instructive, with City hosting Juventus at the Etihad.
It's a matchup worthy of the knockout stages, and the midfield battle should prove fascinating, with City's Yaya Toure up against Juve's Paul Pogba. Victory over the Italian champions would put City on course to top the group—and possibly accomplish more.
Focus on Europe
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Manchester City have made remarkable progress in multiple competitions since the club's takeover by the Abu Dhabi United Group in 2008. Relegated to the third tier of English football just 10 years before the takeover, City won the FA Cup in 2011 and Premier League titles in 2012 and 2014.
European success, however, has eluded the club so far. After group-stage exits in 2011-12 and 2012-13, City reached the knockout phase the next two seasons, only to be eliminated by Barcelona in the round of 16 each time.
It's little surprise, then, that manager Manuel Pellegrini is targeting a deeper run in Europe this term. "If we have to improve in one tournament it is the Champions League because the last two seasons we lost about Barcelona," the Chilean said, per the Daily Mirror.
"But we have to think about Real," Pellegrini added. "They stayed 30 years without winning the Champions League. We try to improve all the time but the Champions League is not easy to win."
He's right about the last part, of course. Elite clubs such as Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern are once again the favorites for the Champions League this season, but City have started the Premier League season in impressive form and appear to have their best shot yet at progressing deep in Europe.
Before the summer, the squad was already full of dangerous attacking options, but the Citizens strengthened in the transfer market by signing Kevin De Bruyne from Wolfsburg and Raheem Sterling from Liverpool. In addition, defender Nicolas Otamendi joined from Valencia, giving the back line more depth.
Combined with the pieces already in place, those signings should make City formidable in Group D. The next step is winning a knockout tie and perhaps making a run to the semifinals or beyond.
What to Make of Sevilla?
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Sevilla are an interesting entrant in this season's Champions League for many reasons, but mostly because the Andalusians have won the Europa League—UEFA's second-tier club competition—in each of the past two campaigns.
That means Sevilla have a squad that's highly experienced in tournament football. Like the Champions League, the Europa League features group games and a knockout phase. Sevilla have excelled in both.
In addition, Unai Emery is a shrewd manager who has a penchant for making the right moves at the right times to give his team the best chance to win. Whether he's making key substitutions or mid-game alterations to tactics, Emery is often the sharpest footballing mind in a given stadium.
In the transfer market, Emery signed center-forwards Ciro Immobile and Fernando Llorente, which should help offset the loss of Carlos Bacca. Winger Yevhen Konoplyanka joined from Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk on a free transfer, adding another option for the attack.
In another group—we're glaring at you, Group H—the Andalusians might have been runaway favorites. In Group D, Emery and his players are in for a fight. But fight they will.
The bottom line is, don't sleep on Sevilla. This team knows how to win tournaments, and the squad has plenty of talent.
What's Going on with Juventus?
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Juventus have won Serie A each of the last four seasons, but the current campaign has started disastrously. After a surprising loss at home to Udinese on the opening day of the season, the Bianconeri fell 2-1 at title rivals Roma on Aug. 30.
There most recent outing resulted in a 1-1 draw with high-flying Chievo at Juventus Stadium. Through three games, then, Juventus have claimed one point, scored two goals and conceded four. According to ESPN FC, the first two results represented the club's worst start to a league season since 1912. Not that manager Massimiliano Allegri is worried.
"We just need to remain serene," Allegri told La Gazzetta dello Sport (h/t ESPN FC). "I don't like anxiety, I'm a very clear-minded person. We've got to think positively and I don't see any reason why we shouldn't be. Juventus have got all the potential to have a great season."
In fairness to Allegri and Juventus, there are legitimate reasons behind the slow start. Influential players Andrea Pirlo, Arturo Vidal and Carlos Tevez left the club in the summer, taking a chunk of the team's spine with them.
New players have arrived, but Paulo Dybala, Mario Mandzukic, Hernanes and Juan Cuadrado need time to settle in. Meanwhile, midfielders Claudio Marchisio and Sami Khedira have been unavailable.
After the loss to Roma, B/R's Adam Digby noted that midfield has been a problem area for Juventus:
"[The absences of Marchisio and Khedira] are important, as it was in midfield where Juventus most clearly struggled. Simone Padoin—for the second week in a row—was overwhelmed in the centre of the pitch, simply unable to provide the quality needed in such a competitive environment.
His lack of ability on the ball clearly hurt the team, and the distance between his input and what a player like Khedira can deliver in the same role is staggering. That simple change would make a huge difference for Allegri, and the same is true of Marchisio’s attacking impetus in comparison to the promising Stefano Sturaro.
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It's unrealistic to think Juve will continue to struggle to this extent throughout the season. But such a slow start is a concern, and after drawing a tough Champions League group, Allegri will have to find answers quickly.
And What's Going on with Gladbach?
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Borussia Monchengladbach have started the season in worse form than Juventus.
Matchday 1 in the Bundesliga saw Gladbach routed 4-0 by Borussia Dortmund. The Foals lost their next three games as well, to Mainz, Werder Bremen and Hamburg respectively. As such, through four matches, Lucien Favre's men sit at the bottom of the table with zero points, two goals scored and 11 conceded.
The odds were already stacked against Gladbach. Losing Max Kruse in the transfer window hurt the attack, and the Foals were always going to struggle to balance their Bundesliga obligations with the rigors of such a tough group.
Now, however, after starting the domestic season so poorly, the club might have to re-evaluate its priorities. Will Gladbach be able to mount a real challenge in Group D?
