Playing Fact or Fiction with All of MLB's Hottest Week 23 Buzz, Rumors
Spoiler alert: This week's edition of "Fact or Fiction" is chock-full of East Coast bias.
It's not intentional, mind you, but teams in close proximity to the Atlantic Ocean are the ones making all the noise this week. That's just how the rumor mill, and speculation in general, rolls sometimes. And none of it pertains to how things will play out down the stretch in 2015. It's all with an eye on 2016 and beyond.
Has a superhero signed his own eviction notice? Is the Evil Empire poised to dominate the offseason headlines? Will the insane amount of starting pitching expected to be available in free agency eliminate the offseason trade market for pitching?
We'll tackle all of that and more on the pages that follow.
Fact: The Mets Will Trade Matt Harvey This Winter
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Six months ago, the very idea that Matt Harvey might get traded out of New York would get you laughed out of a room. Now, as ESPN's Buster Olney writes, it's a move the Mets really can't afford not to make:
"Because Harvey can be one of baseball's best pitchers before he reaches free agency, the Mets would get a ton in return for him -- a ton. Some other contender will ardently pursue a frontline starting pitcher this winter, whether it's the Red Sox, Dodgers, Giants, Astros or Cubs. The Mets could probably get three outstanding prospects in return, and Harvey could go elsewhere and be viewed as a short-term savior.
Trading Harvey would be the right baseball move even without the ongoing fight over his innings; it would be the right business move.
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But when you get past the innings-limit debacle and the ridiculous return that the Mets figure to receive, there's a more pressing need for them to unload the Dark Knight: the Wilpon family.
It would be an absolute shock if ownership gave general manager Sandy Alderson the financial resources needed to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes (more on him to come) or make a legitimate run at free agents like Chris Davis, Jason Heyward or Justin Upton.
Trading Harvey gives the Mets their best chance at adding that impact bat. Maybe it's a package built around the Chicago Cubs' Javier Baez. Maybe Boston agrees to part with Xander Bogaerts or the Los Angeles Dodgers with Yasiel Puig.
Just focusing on the teams that Olney lists, there's no shortage of potential packages that could find the Mets in a stronger position moving forward without Harvey than they would be with him. When you expand the field of possible trade partners to the rest of baseball, the possibilities are endless.
Fiction: The Yankees Will Be Major Players in Free Agency
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Considering the rotation issues the New York Yankees have had this season, it seems a foregone conclusion that the team will be in the mix for free-agent hurlers like David Price, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann.
"Our activity usually lies to expiring contracts," Yankees GM Brian Cashman told ESPN.com's Andrew Marchand. Granted, the Yankees have been known to put out misinformation before when it comes to their plans.
But recent history backs up Cashman's statement, and the Bronx Bombers only have $13 million (approximately) coming off the books after the season, per Cot's Contracts.
Not only is that nearly enough to cover the yearly salary of a top-flight free-agent starter, but most of that money figures to be allocated to raises due to the team's arbitration-eligible players, a list that includes some key pieces:
- SP Nate Eovaldi
- SS Didi Gregorius
- SP Ivan Nova
- SP Michael Pineda
- SP/RP Adam Warren
- RP Justin Wilson
And a quick look at the roster doesn't provide much in the way of openings for an expensive new toy. Chris Capuano, Stephen Drew, Brendan Ryan and Chris Young are the team's four "big" free agents, and each one could easily be replaced by internal options.
Fact: Tampa Bay Will Trade a Starter This Winter
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Contrary to popular opinion, the pipeline that has fed Tampa Bay high-upside, young pitching remains unclogged and fully stocked, which leads the Tampa Bay Times' Marc Topkin to conclude that the Rays will look to move some of that pitching in an effort to plug some holes on the roster this winter.
Other teams would undoubtedly pay an absurdly high price to land staff ace Chris Archer, but with an incredibly team-friendly deal, which runs through the 2021 season for a total of $41.25 million, his yearly salary exceeding $10 million only in the final year of the deal, he's not going anywhere.
But players like 27-year-old Nathan Karns could be. As the non-waiver trade deadline approached in late July, Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan reported that the Rays were indeed listening to offers on Karns, who is not yet arbitration-eligible and is under team control for another five years.
With four years of team control left, Jake Odorizzi would be another highly sought-after arm were the Rays to make him available. Or perhaps the team will simply look to cut its losses and sell low on arms like Matt Moore and Drew Smyly, who have battled injury and inconsistency.
Tampa Bay has no shortage of potential trade chips to dangle in front of interested clubs this winter, and who winds up getting dealt figures to ultimately come down to which one of their young arms could bring back the most attractive package of talent.
But someone is going to get moved, if for no other reason than to clear a rotation spot for top prospect Blake Snell, who has dominated across three minor league levels this season and is ready to contribute as part of a major league staff.
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Fiction: Eliminating the Release Clause Means Yoenis Cespedes Will Stay a Met
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Bidding wars are a free agent's best friend. It makes absolutely no sense for a player about to hit the open market to limit the number of potential suitors, so it comes as no surprise that the release clause in Yoenis Cespedes' current contract has been revised.
As ESPN.com's Adam Rubin recently reported: "MLB and the union signed off last week on extending Cespedes' eligibility to re-sign with the Mets for the duration of the offseason, since it was in the best interest of Cespedes and the team."
But it doesn't guarantee that Cespedes is going to stay in New York.
The 29-year-old slugger is seemingly raising his value with each successive at-bat he takes for the Mets, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post opined that he's in line for a multiyear deal that will pay him somewhere between $130 million and $175 million.
Those numbers figure to be far too rich for a number of teams, including the Mets. Consider this: Since taking over as general manager, the biggest contract Sandy Alderson has been able to get ownership to sign off on was a four-year, $60 million pact for Curtis Granderson.
There's no reason to believe that the Wilpon family is going to be amenable to spending at least twice that amount on another player, especially on a deal that could very well eclipse the eight-year, $138 million extension David Wright signed in December 2012, the largest contract in team history.
All this does is extend the window of opportunity that the Mets have to re-sign Cespedes. It does nothing to improve their odds of keeping the Cuban sensation.
Fact: Big Changes Are Coming in Washington
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If Bryce Harper thought it was "brutal" to see fans of his Washington Nationals leave a game against the division-leading New York Mets early, you can't help but wonder what he'll think of the nearly empty ballpark he and his teammates play in front of for the rest of the season.
For Washington is done. Cooked. After blowing leads in three successive games to the Mets, it would take a run of epic proportions—and an equally epic collapse by New York—for the Nationals to reach the playoffs.
And that's a major problem for a team that many believed would represent the National League in the World Series this season.
While general manager Mike Rizzo's job appears to be safe, the same cannot be said for manager Matt Williams and his coaching staff, all of whom figure to be looking for new employment this winter.
Aside from soon-to-be 39-year-old reliever Matt Thornton and starter Jordan Zimmermann, none of the team's pending free agents have made a strong case to be retained. No matter how you slice it, the Nationals are going to free up a ton of payroll for Rizzo to play with on the free-agent market.
That amount could be even larger should the team decide that top prospect Lucas Giolito is ready to step into the rotation as a replacement for Zimmermann, who is expected to command a lucrative deal on the open market.
Changes are coming to our nation's capital in 2016, and they won't just be in the Oval Office.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs and are current through September 9. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR
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