US Open 2015 Women's Semifinal: Halep vs. Pennetta Preview and Prediction
Two weeks of unpredictable twists and turns are in the books as the 2015 U.S. Open zooms toward its climax.
Flavia Pennetta earned an unlikely spot in the semifinals, becoming the second Italian woman to reach the final four. At 33, she's now in position to make the first Grand Slam final of her career.
To get there, Pennetta will duel with the No. 2 player in the world, Simona Halep. The Romanian has been on fire lately, surviving tests against big-hitters Sabine Lisicki and Victoria Azarenka to advance to her maiden semifinal in New York.
Both players may be undersized and lack overwhelming power, but they overcome those deficiencies by exuding maximum toughness and heart. And here they are, on the precipice of the championship match.
So which one of these plucky fighters will survive until Saturday?
Who Has the Historical Advantage?
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Halep may own the higher ranking, but it's actually Pennetta who's controlled their rivalry.
The Italian leads the series 3-1, sweeping her opponent the first three times they played. Yet those early contests came before 2014 when a young Halep had yet to find her mark. She's become a much different (and better) player in the last two seasons.
Her improvement showed when the two collided earlier this spring in Miami. Halep finally ended her jinx against Pennetta, gutting out a hard-fought 6-3, 7-5 win. At one point in the second set, Halep trailed 5-2. But she kept her composure and reeled off the last five games in impressive fashion.
It's important to note they played once before at the U.S. Open. Just two years ago, Pennetta cruised to a 6-2, 7-6 (3) victory in their fourth-round match.
Will we see a similar result this time? Or did Halep truly turn the corner in Miami?
Halep at the 2015 US Open
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Halep entered New York on a tear after reaching the finals in both Toronto and Cincinnati. Not even a few rocky patches here and there have halted that roll this fortnight.
Her first match ended prematurely when Marina Erakovic retired down 6-2, 3-0. Halep then raced out to a quick and insurmountable lead against her next opponent, brushing past Kateryna Bondarenko in straight sets. American hopeful Shelby Rogers fared even worse, taking just five games off the world No. 2 in a decisive loss.
Those were the easy ones; things became much trickier in the fourth round.
In a battle that spanned over two-and-a-half hours, Halep and Sabine Lisicki traded a staggering 17 breaks of serve. As soon as one of them gained a lead, she gave it right back with sloppy and nervy play. It's safe to say that match won't be saved on any time capsules. But Lisicki kept imploding thanks to a tsunami of errors, allowing Halep a 6-7 (6), 7-5, 6-2 win.
In her first quarterfinal appearance at the U.S. Open, Halep faced the taller and more powerful Victoria Azarenka. And again she was forced to go the distance. Some clutch play and clean hitting ultimately carried Halep to a tough 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 victory over Azarenka.
Grinding out those matches should have Halep feeling mighty confident heading into the semifinals.
Pennetta at the 2015 US Open
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When the draw came out, few expected Pennetta to emerge from her quarter. The leading contenders were Caroline Wozniacki, Petra Kvitova and Garbine Muguruza. But the veteran Italian has outlasted all of them, steadily gaining momentum as she goes.
Needing three sets to take out a game Jarmila Gajdosova in the opening round, Pennetta rebounded to win her second match in straight sets against Monica Niculescu. Her next opponent, Petra Cetkovska, presented a stiffer test and easily won the first set. Yet Pennetta didn't panic and raised her level for a 1-6, 6-1, 6-4 win.
In the fourth round, she improved her record against Samantha Stosur to 7-0, easing past the Aussie in straight sets. No matter what the muscular Stosur threw at her, Pennetta had the answer.
She followed a familiar formula against Kvitova in the quarterfinals. Despite losing the first set, Pennetta remained calm and allowed the stronger Kvitova to beat herself with costly errors. In the end, she pulled out a 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 victory courtesy of her usual dose of consistent hitting.
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Biggest X-Factors?
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As well as both women have played throughout the tournament, Pennetta's past success in New York is a key factor.
She's more comfortable on these courts than Halep, who had never advanced past the fourth round prior to this year. Pennetta, however, is playing in her second semifinal here (2013) and has reached four other quarterfinals at the U.S. Open. At no other major has the Italian come close to replicating those results. She clearly raises her game in the Big Apple.
Another thing to watch is Halep's health. She's nursed a left thigh injury the last few weeks, and it flared up during her win over Lisicki. Heavy taping on that leg is noticeable, and being forced to play matches on two consecutive days will present a great physical challenge.
Halep Will Win If...
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Halep is a tough woman to hit off the court. She makes you work for every point, using her quickness and agility to get ball after ball back into play.
Those defensive skills are the bedrock of her game. Facing a similar player in Pennetta, her fitness will be put to the test. Expect plenty of long rallies.
Staying aggressive is important for Halep, who has a tendency to become too passive at times. But the biggest factor will be how she serves.
She'll never smoke aces by opponents and is likely to hit her share of double faults. One thing Halep's been good at, though, is getting a high percentage of first serves into play. And she's winning a large majority of those points. Yet her second serve has proven pretty vulnerable.
It's critical for Halep to limit the amount of second-serve looks Pennetta will see.
Pennetta Will Win If...
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Pennetta is thriving because of her stellar return skills. Armed with a solid forehand and backhand, she's not intimidated by pace or spin.
And she's been making opponents pay dearly for hitting second serves, winning more than 50 percent of those points in each of her five matches. As a result, Pennetta is generating a ton of break-point opportunities.
Even though she's not the most powerful force from the baseline, Pennetta plays within herself and limits unforced errors. The Italian produces very clean tennis, lulling opponents into costly mistakes.
Those two area will be crucial for her. If she remains patient against the equally consistent Halep and attacks the Romanian's second serve, Pennetta will have a great chance.
Prediction
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Based on their history against one another and their collective skills and weaknesses, the odds seem to favor Pennetta.
So why should we discount her advantages on paper? Maybe it's intuition, but this match seems like one that Halep should absolutely win.
No, she hasn't been serving great throughout the tournament. And Pennetta will jump all over weak second serves. Still, Halep is ranked higher for a reason—she's simply a more well-rounded player. The 10-year age difference between the two should also benefit the supremely fit Halep.
It won't be easy, and there will probably be a ton of breaks. But Halep has enough tools to make her way into the final.
All statistics are courtesy of WTATennis.com unless otherwise noted.
Joe Kennard is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report.
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