US Open 2015 Women's Semifinal: Williams vs. Vinci Preview and Prediction
If you picked Serena Williams and Roberta Vinci to meet in the 2015 U.S. Open semifinals, well, you might be clairvoyant.
Few expected these veterans to eventually clash when the tournament started. Yet here they are, in the proverbial David vs. Goliath battle. What's at stake is not only a place in the final, but perhaps a place in history as well.
Williams' presence at this stage shouldn't come as a surprise. The American has been on top of the tennis world lately, winning nearly every tournament in sight and setting herself up for a rare calendar Grand Slam. With the pressure to complete that historic achievement weighing heavily on her shoulders, Williams, 33, has thrived under the spotlight.
Vinci, 32, may not be a household name, but the Italian has taken advantage of some incredible luck and an unpredictable section of the draw to reach her first career major semifinal. A speedy mover and defensive pest, Vinci shouldn't be overlooked despite her relatively easy path to this point.
Though Williams will be heavily favored, we'll soon find out if Vinci can defy expectations and deliver a landmark upset.
Who Has the Historical Edge?
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Like she does against virtually every opponent, Williams holds a clear advantage in this rivalry.
Their head-to-head series is tilted 4-0 in Williams' favor, with all four meetings ending in straight sets. Two of those matches came at Grand Slam events (2009 Wimbledon, 2013 French Open), so they do have a history of facing one another on big stages. Yet Vinci hasn't even managed to take Williams to a single tiebreak. That's what you call lopsided.
The two recently squared off in the Toronto quarterfinals—a decisive 6-4, 6-3 win for Williams. Unless Vinci can change that dynamic, a fifth-straight loss in the series seems inevitable.
A more talented, powerful and proven player, Williams has a substantial edge over Vinci.
Williams at the 2015 US Open
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Williams is back in yet another major semifinal, but her path here wasn't exactly straightforward.
Her first-round match against Vitalia Diatchenko barely lasted 30 minutes, as the visibly hampered Russian pulled the cord after trailing 6-0, 2-0. Perhaps thrown off by that strange occasion, Williams didn't bring her best against Kiki Bertens. It was a nervy performance stained by 10 double faults, but she pulled through for a 7-6 (5), 6-3 victory.
Against fellow American Bethanie Mattek-Sands, Williams faced an unlikely third-round scare. She dropped the first set and generally looked flat. Her dream of a calendar Grand Slam seemed very much in peril. Not until securing a late break in the second set did she take control of the match, which she eventually won 3-6, 7-5, 6-0.
Rising star Madison Keys has been pegged by many as a future major champion, but Williams easily tamed her power and schooled the prodigy in a breezy 6-3, 6-3 win. That result set up a special quarterfinal date with her sister.
In a topsy-turvy contest full of momentum swings, Serena proved steadier when it mattered most, edging Venus 6-2, 1-6, 6-3. A third win in as many matches over a compatriot, Williams now heads into the latter stages of the U.S. Open eyeing a hallowed crown.
Vinci at the 2015 US Open
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Benefiting from Maria Sharapova's withdrawal before the start of the event, Vinci survived a quarter that saw one big name after another exit.
Some of the notable players in her section? Ana Ivanovic, Carla Suarez Navarro, Ekaterina Makarova, Elina Svitolina, Jelena Jankovic and Eugenie Bouchard. All of them bowed out early, clearing a path for the Italian veteran.
After easily dispatching Vania King in her opening match, Vinci clawed her way past Denisa Allertova in a tight three-set battle. She'd have to go the distance again in the third round, using her edge in experience to outlast the lesser-known Mariana Duque-Marino.
Slated to play Bouchard in the fourth round, Vinci received a gift when a fluke injury forced the concussed Canadian to walkover before the match. Just like that, she had reached her third U.S. Open quarterfinal in four years.
Vinci entered her meeting with Kristina Mladenovic looking to get a big monkey off her back. In 15 years of Grand Slam action, she had never made a semifinal. That would soon change.
In a dramatic duel played in scorching heat, Vinci ousted Mladenovic 6-3, 5-7, 6-4. With grit and guile, she withstood the superior power of her opponent, forcing the aggressive Mladenovic to commit a whopping 64 unforced errors.
And that win has propelled Vinci into unfamiliar territory.
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Biggest X-Factors?
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There's no way to understate the sizable advantage Williams holds in terms of experience.
Grand Slam semifinals are expected destinations for her. She's supposed to be here, unlike Vinci, who's never before experienced this situation.
This match is Williams' 29th appearance in a major semifinal—and that's only counting singles action. The three-time defending champion knows what to expect and how to cope.
But Vinci enters with nothing to lose. A true Cinderella story, the pressure will be firmly on her opponent. You never know, maybe the stressful journey of trying to complete the calendar Grand Slam will finally sink Williams. Anything other than a routine win will be seen as a disappointment for her.
Mental strength is Williams' forte, however, so watch for her to come out supremely focused and driven to end Vinci's run.
Williams Will Win If...
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Williams' recipe for success in this match isn't complex: All she needs to do is play her game and block out the nerves.
That may sound like an oversimplification, but she's a superior player in every facet to Vinci. The overwhelming power of her serve and ground strokes should be enough to keep the Italian pinned behind the baseline. As solid a defender as Vinci is, she can only do so much if Williams is smacking winners.
Vinci's serve hardly strikes fear, so Williams will look to attack early and send a message. The world No. 1 should be salivating at the thought of jumping on her opponent's weak second serve.
Aggression is the key for Williams. If she plays her brand of tennis, her tools will be more than enough.
Vinci Will Win If...
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How do you say "miracle" in Italian?
The odds are stacked firmly against Vinci in this match. She simply hasn't proved herself in these kinds of occasions before, and who knows how she'll respond? And then there's that matter of her facing possibly the greatest player in women's tennis history. No pressure.
So what does Vinci need to do to pull off the upset?
She'll have to hope Williams is off her game to have a shot. One warning sign for the top seed this tournament has been an inconsistent serve. Maybe if Vinci can win enough free points on double faults, she can get into a few service games.
What she lacks in power, Vinci makes up for with her solid return and defensive skills. She'll need both of them to be clicking in order to make things difficult for Williams.
Prediction
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Williams won't be denied. Not now, especially with history on her racket.
Expect her to calmly swat away Vinci's hopes of a seismic upset and deliver another win in straight sets. There's simply no better player in tennis at dealing with pressure. Though she'll have a big target on her back, Williams is the ultimate fighter and will rise to the occasion.
Vinci is a speed bump in the way, but Williams is a tank who'll easily roll over her for a spot in a fifth-straight U.S. Open final.
Let the countdown to championship Saturday begin.
All statistics are courtesy of WTATennis.com unless otherwise noted.
Joe Kennard is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report.
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