2015 US Open: Bold Predictions for the 2nd Week
The second week of the 2015 U.S. Open will have tremendous matches to decide the year’s final major. There are several possible outcomes, but once again the legitimate contenders have been most impressive in crushing their first-week opponents.
So far, ATP favorites like Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer are streaking through their draws, but Andy Murray has been shaky, and Rafael Nadal and Kei Nishikori are already gone. Marin Cilic will find it tough from here on out if he is to defend his title.
Serena Williams survived a third-round test, but it will hardly deter her conditioning or preparation as she looks to polish off her calendar Grand Slam. But how much trouble could she face with sister Venus set for a quarterfinals clash?
Our “bold predictions” column will examine some of the more interesting scenarios, but of course we have to make reasonable projections with our upset possibilities. We’re not going to pick Donald Young to win the title.
As always, we welcome your predictions and input. It’s all part of the fun as the last week of majors tennis concludes the peak of the 2015 tennis year.
Venus Williams Could Defeat Serena and Her Chance at Special History
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Maybe Venus Williams vs. Serena Williams will be the most important match of the year. Maybe Venus is the only one in the WTA who will not be intimidated by Serena’s power and body language after critical points. Maybe Venus will defeat Serena.
It’s a tough call, but it's not implausible that elder sister Venus shows the nerves to play two great sets and topple younger sister Serena. She alone might be able to force Serena to really feel the pressure of completing her calendar Grand Slam. Things cannot feel the same in facing your elder sister, no matter the countless meetings they have grown up with.
At Wimbledon, Serena handled Venus comfortably, but at last year’s Rogers Cup meeting, Venus overcame a first-set tiebreaker loss to outhit and outplay Serena. She won’t be favored, and Venus could very well go quietly, but if the match goes the distance, she might be the one to swing away with nothing to lose.
Serena leads their head-to-head rivalry 15-11, so obviously Serena knows that her task is frought with more danger than pummeling the likes of Maria Sharapova. Additionally, it’s not as simple as overpowering her sister like she can to nearly everyone else on tour. She’s also not going to surprise her.
Instead, the winner will be the one who executes better and stays away from the errors that have often plagued many of their past results. Their matches have often been lackluster in quality, but they certainly do not lack from the pure competitive spirit of each trying to top the other as they have done for about three decades.
We’re not quite willing to call the outright upset, but we will say that Serena’s focus and desire will give her the third-set tiebreaker. It will be the last test on her way to the Grand Slam.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Will Upset Defending Champion Marin Cilic
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Marin Cilic has dominated Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in their past three annual meetings, all in straight sets. The defending champion should be a strong favorite to outplay the Frenchman knowing that he has defeated him on clay and on indoors and outdoors hard courts. He has proven that he has the power and talent to win a major.
But we are picking Tsonga. It would only be a minor upset, but there are some great signs for Tsonga’s momentum. While Cilic has been a little less impressive, notwithstanding his excellence in crushing Jeremy Chardy, Tsonga has not even dropped serve with four straight-sets victories.
Like his run in winning the 2014 Rogers Cup, Tsonga’s serve and power have been at his best, and he has hit almost twice as many winners as unforced errors.
It has the trappings to be a classic, but it feels like a solid four-set victory for Tsonga and an end to Cilic’s U.S. Open reign.
Sabine Lisicki Will Power Past Simona Halep
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It’s hard to see No. 2-seeded Simona Halep getting a breakthrough major championship at the fast hard courts of the U.S. Open. She’s been a consistent winner with one of the more pleasing all-around tennis packages with excellent speed, hustle and a whole lot of heart trying to tee off with timely groundstrokes against some powerful players.
Halep played well through the first week, but it might be difficult to get past Sabine Lisicki's more powerful shots.
Germany's Lisicki drew the attention of the tennis world when she defeated Serena Williams on her way to the 2013 Wimbledon final. Her game is well suited on grass, but she looked terrific in blasting through her first two matches last week and winning the third set of an error-infested match in Round 3.
She will look to dictate the power and pace, but she cannot have 56 unforced errors against Halep.
She will stay below 30 unforced errors but create at least 40 winners. She will complete the huge upset of Halep.
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Richard Gasquet Will Push Roger Federer to Five Sets
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Time to look past a couple of dangerous opponents: Roger Federer should cruise against John Isner because he almost always exposes big servers with his quick reactions and complete tennis skills. Richard Gasquet is peaking, and right now he looks better than Tomas Berdych, again showing more all-around savvy and better play at the crucial moments.
All of which sets up an interesting match with Federer looking to use his superior serve and quick-strike abilities to fend off the suddenly dangerous Frenchman. Could Gasquet really trouble Federer, despite a six-match losing streak and four years since one of his only two wins (both on clay) in 16 career meetings?
It seems unlikely that Gasquet can win, but these days he is not rolling over for anyone. The challenge is that he must continue to play in his zone like a poor-man’s Mats Wilander, dealing out lengthy groundstrokes and forcing Federer into uncomfortable spots with his backhand.
It could very well go five sets, and Federer will survive, but it could be a Pyrrhic victory as he starts adding up some mileage with his road to the final against a younger, fresher Novak Djokovic.
Samantha Stosur Will Upset Petra Kvitova in the Quarterfinals
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Four years have passed since veteran Samantha Stosur won the U.S. Open title, but she could trouble the powerful but sometimes erratic Petra Kvitova.
Kvitova is younger, stronger and has won seven of eight career meetings. She has crushed her first three opponents and only lost 12 total games. She should make easy work of Johanna Konta.
Stosur still needs to win her fourth-round match against Flavia Pennetta, who enjoyed a nice peak less than two years ago. It will not be easy, but she will be battle-hardened for one giant victory against Kvitova, more of an upside-down surprise, fitting for the Australian champion.
Stosur’s moment in the spotlight will be short-lived after she gets blown out in the semifinals.
Andy Murray vs. Stan Wawrinka Will Be the Match of the Week
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Excuse the tennis world if it dismisses Donald Young's magic, and Kevin Anderson's steady play. Stan Wawrinka and Andy Murray will dismantle these fourth-round opponents and stage a real war, a quarterfinals clash that will be the best of the tournament.
Although Murray has had the more star-studded career, it’s been two years since he won Wimbledon, fell off with back injuries and worked his way back to being a major contender.
Meanwhile, Murray’s dip coincided with Wawrinka’s late-blooming career rise. He crushed the ailing Murray at the 2013 U.S. Open and pushed Novak Djokovic in a five-set semifinal loss. He has since won two majors, tying Murray, and his 6-8 record against the Scot was before his aforementioned rise.
Will it be Murray’s steady groundstrokes, his variety of shots and outstanding defensive work?
Will it be Wawrinka’s thundering power that forces the action?
It could come down to mental toughness during big points. The feisty Murray has never backed down, and he flexed his resilience in winning two clay-court titles and the Rogers Cup. Wawrinka played the match of his life in dusting off No. 1 Djokovic in the French Open final.
We say it goes the distance in an awesome five-setter. Just sit back and enjoy that one.
Who do you pick?
Victoria Azarenka to the U.S. Open Final
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Victoria Azarenka is obviously better than her No. 20 seed. Because she was out with injuries for nearly all of 2014, the former No. 1 and two-time Australian Open champion has had to scrape through tougher draws in rebuilding her ranking.
She’s also been slow to get back in shape, as evidenced by the way she tired against Serena Williams at Wimbledon after pushing the champion to the ropes.
Right now Azarenka is probably the best player in the bottom of the draw where she is harnessing her power and elevating her grunting back to the form that saw her challenge Serena at the 2013 U.S. Open final.
If Azarenka does have to get through Simona Halep or Petra Kvitova, she can overpower the former and be more consistent than the latter. Her competitive fire is burning brighter, and her hunger and confidence are rising with each recent win.
And if somehow Venus Williams does knock off Serena, we’ll take Azarenka to win the U.S. Open.
Novak Djokovic Will Not Lose Another Set in Winning the U.S. Open Title
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It’s not a bold pick to say that Novak Djokovic will win the U.S. Open, because he will. It will be very tough for Roger Federer to take a set off him, let alone three, in the final, if the Swiss Maestro makes it there.
So let’s go with degree of perfection here. Djokovic has won nine majors, but it’s rarely easy. There have often been at least one close match or epic duel that helps define his ultimate victory. It’s not easy no matter how good he has looked after crushing his first four opponents in Week 1, with only one hiccup, a second-set loss to Roberto Bautista Agut.
And this could continue. We’re going to pick Djokovic to sweep Feliciano Lopez, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Federer. Yes, straight sets all the way, kind of how Marin Cilic finished things off a year ago.
You have to go back to Ivan Lendl in 1985-87 to find another player this dominant at the U.S. Open in terms of fewest sets dropped. Lendl dropped only one set in each year on his way to destroying the draws at the U.S. Open.
It doesn’t mean that there won’t be a few moments of drama for Djokovic, but the end result will be secure all the way.
Ten majors and counting for the awesome Serbian.
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