Why There's No Reason to Overreact to Rafael Nadal's Loss at 2015 US Open

A five-set collapse at the 2015 U.S. Open for Rafael Nadal will linger through the fall and winter for those who consider the future of his career. Overreactions will simmer in the press as the momentum picks up for those who insist that the Spanish champion and 14-time major winner will not win another of these cherished titles.

Don’t believe the hype. Nadal’s loss to Fabio Fognini, after winning the first two sets, was symptomatic of 2015, but it was hardly the epilogue to one of the greatest careers in tennis history.

There were a lot of good Nadal moments in the match, a contest that may gloss over Fognini’s spirited victory in creating 70 of the match’s 100 winners, but the Spaniard also showed more baseline consistency and patience than he had during his European clay-court losses preceding Wimbledon.

Nadal’s down but far from out.

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Another early exit for Rafa Nadal. Will the 14-time Grand Slam champion ever claim another Major title? #ESPNTennis pic.twitter.com/BUmGZO8Su4

— ESPNTennis (@ESPNTennis) September 5, 2015"

Instant Verdicts

Everything about modern society is seemingly instantaneous. Food is microwaved, Twitter posts pithy headlines and tennis legacies shift in the wind. Spectators want quick information, and critics are all too happy to deliver their prognostications, knowing that the scenes will shift and the decor will be rearranged in the next column.

In 2015, Nadal’s more modest results have spilled gallons of ink. Keyboards click furiously, wondering what is wrong.

Early in the year, the consensus was that Nadal would find his form in clay-court Europe. But he was crushed in the quarterfinals at Roland Garros by Novak Djokovic and departed his former empire without a single title.

KENZO TRIBOUILLARD/Getty Images

While he has not resembled the dominant champion that he was just two years ago, Nadal has nevertheless been adjusting his game to figure out how to blend in more offensive clout with his former grinding methods.

The critics and fans have been impatient, and too often have buried the Spaniard, not for his current play but declaring that he will not win another major in his career. Last month, Ravi Ubha of CNN collected mostly gloomy comments from a handful of players, coaches and other respected names in an article entitled "What’s Wrong with Rafael Nadal?" Former player Andy Roddick said to the BBC that Nadal “probably won't win another Slam.”

There are growing comments from tennis fans who have chiseled in his legacy numbers and moved him to the back of the museum. It’s not that everyone is rooting for Nadal to fail, but that people want answers today, and human nature feels better about conclusive projections than dwelling on uncertainty.

Even Nadal has occasioned to talk about his need to gain confidence. He reminded the U.S. Open media, via the New York Post, following his second-round win that he is still one of the top players in the world:

"I am No. 8 in the world; I am not No. 100. I don’t know. It seems like I am No. 200 in every press conference. I am not so bad. After I arrive here with the victory, I come back to the locker room [hearing people] saying how bad I am. Every day."

Reactive comments are almost as likely when Nadal wins. Nearly all of his victories have come against opponents outside the ATP top 10 (Nadal is 2-6 against top-10 opponents in 2015), so when he does take care of business there’s still not a lot of enthusiasm that he is close to being the Nadal of championships past.

In the eyes of most, Nadal’s future is all too centered on one moment, win or lose, which is understandable given the present, but hardly an accurate way to extrapolate his future.

It’s Not the End

The reality is that Nadal has been slowly fighting his way back from an abysmal loss to Tomas Berdych at the Australian Open. For years, Nadal has shown an incredibly quick way to bounce back to championship form as if he only needed to add water and shake. When it did not happen immediately the vultures began to circle.

Insiders understand that Nadal is playing better now than he was six months ago. Boris Becker, former playing star and current coach of Novak Djokovic, believes that Nadal is not finished despite his more recent struggles. He said on Sky Sports: "It's obviously a big drop but he hasn't forgotten how to play tennis. He was injured for a while, last year [at the US Open] he didn't play at all so he's only had half a year. It's a question of time for when we see the old Rafa back."

For two sets under New York’s night lights, Nadal was good enough to grind away against Fognini’s fickle brilliance. As the match wore on, Nadal relied on safe margins that did not have the offensive serving or baseline power needed to defeat the top players. By the end, he was racing to the corners for defensive stabs willing himself to the finish line but watching his opponent sprint by.

Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

But win or lose, Nadal was not going to topple Djokovic in a possible quarterfinal match next week. There’s more work to do, and the upcoming autumn stretch has historically been his least successful time. He’s not going to turn things around in the near future, but that doesn’t mean he cannot evolve into another championship beast by January or June.

The 2015 U.S. Open was just another loss, but it will not determine the remainder of his career. Give Nadal more time, probably another half year at least until we really know if his mediocre 2015 is really the end, or if it is a transitional slump before another major burst.