Early Predictions for Winter's Top Available Big-Name MLB Stars
It's good to be David Price.
Ever since the lefty ace landed north of the border, the Toronto Blue Jays have been the scariest team in baseball. And when the season ends, the free-agent to-be is going to make a mint.
Surveying the upcoming free-agent class, Price is far from the only big-name big leaguer who's set to cash in. While there's plenty of baseball left to be played this season, it's not too early to jump ahead and predict where some of the most prominent names will end up based on 2015 performance and team needs in 2016 and beyond.
The 10 players who cracked this list are ranked in order of predicted contract value. For the purpose of this top 10, players like Zack Greinke (who has an opt-out clause) and Alex Gordon (who has an option) were not included, as it's unclear if they will actually hit the open market.
But even with those qualifications in place, the list is still stacked with aces and impact bats.
Honorable Mention
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Before getting started with the top 10, here's a look at a few of the players who were also under consideration for the list. All of these major leaguers are headed for lucrative paydays, but they missed the cut for the list that follows because of injuries or underwhelming performance in 2015:
- Yovani Gallardo, SP
- Mike Leake, SP
- Jeff Samardzija, SP
- Denard Span, CF
- Matt Wieters, C
10. Ben Zobrist, UTL
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2016 Opening Day Age: 34
Predicted Landing Spot: Chicago Cubs
Ben Zobrist would already be at Wrigley Field if the Chicago Cubs had their way, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. As Wittenmyer reported earlier in the season, the super-utility man was one of the club's "biggest targets" before the deadline, and Chicago also tried to acquire him last offseason.
Zobrist would be an ideal addition for the Cubs this winter, as he has the defensive versatility to provide cover across the infield and in the outfield corners. He also provides plenty of production with his bat. Since joining the Kansas City Royals in a summer swap, Zobrist has hit .336. On the year, the switch-hitter owns an .850 OPS.
Predicted Contract: Four years, $44 million
9. Scott Kazmir, SP
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2016 Opening Day Age: 32
Predicted Landing Spot: Houston Astros
A return to Minute Maid Park in 2016 would make a lot of sense for Houston native Scott Kazmir.
Since joining the American League West front-runners in a July trade, the left-hander has quietly continued to post one of the best seasons in the circuit. In 26 starts—including eight outings with the Astros—Kazmir has reeled off a 2.50 ERA, which is the fourth-lowest mark in the AL.
For Houston, keeping Kazmir around would also make a lot of sense. With staff ace Dallas Keuchel under club control through the end of 2019, inking Kazmir to a multiyear deal would would give the Astros a formidable one-two combination as the team looks to cement its status as one of the rising powers in the AL.
Predicted Contract: Four years, $72 million
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8. Ian Desmond, SS
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2016 Opening Day Age: 30
Predicted Landing Spot: New York Yankees
Ian Desmond has saved his season after enduring a nightmare first half.
Leading up to the All-Star break, the right-handed hitter clocked in with a .211 average and .589 OPS. Since then, Desmond has posted a .287 average and an .868 OPS.
With Desmond's free-agent stock on the rise, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports tabbed the Arizona Diamondbacks, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, New York Mets and Minnesota Twins as teams who could be on the lookout for a new shortstop this offseason.
As Rosenthal pointed out, teams could also look at Desmond, who will be 30 by the time the 2016 season begins, as a second baseman. Rosenthal named the New York Yankees as one club that would fit that bill. The numbers indicate that Desmond would definitely be an upgrade in the Bronx. In 2015, Yankees second basemen are last in the majors with a .212 average.
Predicted Contract: Five years, $75 million
7. Justin Upton, LF
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2016 Opening Day Age: 28
Predicted Landing Spot: Los Angeles Angels
Left field has been a mess for the Los Angeles Angels in 2015.
Here's a look at the stats of the players who have patrolled that spot for the Halos:
- .213 AVG, .275 OBP, .313 SLG, .589 OPS
Justin Upton is one free-agent to-be who would immediately solve the Angels' woes in left. In his first season with the San Diego Padres, Upton earned an All-Star nod, and he has cracked 24 home runs and posted a .460 slugging percentage while playing his home games at the cavernous Petco Park.
The only downside to a potential signing of Upton is that, like Albert Pujols and Mike Trout—the club's two most dynamic hitters—the 28-year-old also bats from the right side of the plate. Ideally, the Angels would find a lefty masher to slot into the lineup between Pujols and Trout. But unfortunately, the market for lefty hitters is looking awfully light.
Predicted Contract: Six years, $108 million
6. Chris Davis, 1B
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2016 Opening Day Age: 30
Predicted Landing Spot: Baltimore Orioles
Chris Davis is in the midst of one monster salary drive.
The Baltimore Orioles first baseman has connected on 21 home runs in 47 games since the All-Star break. On the year, Davis is leading the majors with 40 homers. At the rate at which Davis has been leaving the yard, the O's are going to have to break out the checkbook if they wants to keep the slugger at Camden Yards in 2016 and beyond.
As Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun noted, it was just last year that the Orioles let another home run leader—Nelson Cruz—depart via free agency. That decision didn't work out too well, as Cruz has gone on to club 39 bombs in his first season with the Seattle Mariners. The Orioles can't afford to make the same mistake with Davis.
Predicted Contract: Five years, $110 million
5. Yoenis Cespedes, LF
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2016 Opening Day Age: 30
Predicted Landing Spot: Detroit Tigers
With 11 jacks and a .965 OPS in 32 games since his trade to the New York Mets, Yoenis Cespedes is doing everything he can to make sure he's a popular target on the upcoming free-agent block.
That kind of power and his cannon of a right arm are sure to draw the interest of plenty of clubs. One such team that could make a run at signing the Cuban is his former employer, the Detroit Tigers. As Bob Nightengale of USA Today explained via Twitter at the time of his move to the Mets, the Tigers have always been interested in bringing Cespedes back to Motown:
"When the #Tigers traded Cespedes to #Mets, they parted ways believing they'll be reunited again this winter."
Based on the way Cespedes has been tearing it up in Queens, the cost of making that reunion a reality has just gone up considerably.
Predicted Contract: Six years, $120 million
4. Jordan Zimmermann, SP
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2016 Opening Day Age: 29
Predicted Landing Spot: San Francisco Giants
It's been a rough year for San Francisco Giants starters not named Madison Bumgarner.
And there's going to be plenty of turnover on the horizon. Mike Leake, Tim Lincecum and Ryan Vogelsong are all set to become free agents at the end of the year, and Matt Cain continues to struggle with injuries.
According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, Jordan Zimmermann is one starter San Francisco is "likely to consider this offseason." With a 3.38 ERA, Zimmermann is actually having his worst year by that measure since 2010. Still, making a big-money move for the righty would provide the Giants with what has proved to be elusive in 2015: a true No. 2 starter.
Predicted Contract: Six years, $144 million
3. Jason Heyward, RF
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2016 Opening Day Age: 26
Predicted Landing Spot: St. Louis Cardinals
Jason Heyward has a lot of factors playing in his favor as free agency approaches.
At 26, Heyward is the youngest player on this list. He also has the best glove of any player in the 2016 class. Per FanGraphs, Heyward has saved the St. Louis Cardinals 14 runs in 2015. That's the third-best output among all outfielders in the Senior Circuit.
Heyward has also been rolling along at the plate in the second half. Dating back to the All-Star break, the lefty hitter clocks in with a .314 average and an .844 OPS.
As a result of Heyward's impressive play, the Cards realize the rising star is going to test the open market before discussing a new deal with his current team.
"In terms of when we can actually engage, it's really going to be this offseason," general manager John Mozeliak said, per Chris Hrabe of KMOX.
While St. Louis is sure to face all sorts of competition in the Heyward derby, the good news for the Cards is that the right fielder has definitely enjoyed his time at Busch Stadium. Heyward said as much per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch last month.
“The grass isn’t greener everywhere."
Predicted Contract: Eight years, $160 million
2. Johnny Cueto, SP
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2016 Opening Day Age: 30
Predicted Landing Spot: Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox's rotation needs help—a lot of help.
In 2015, the group checks in with the fourth-worst ERA (4.64) in the bigs. When the Kansas City Royals visited Fenway Park last month, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com asked Cueto if he would be interested in providing that help.
“It depends,” Cueto said with Hanley Ramirez translating. “Because I’m a free agent, and I’m just going to pick the best choice to go. The main thing — I would like to come here because it’s a championship-caliber team.”
With a 3.04 ERA while splitting the season between the Cincinnati Reds and Royals, Cueto will have no shortage of options to pick from when free agency arrives.
Aside from David Price, Cueto is the premier starter on the market. Last offseason, Jon Lester was the second-best starter on the free-agent block, and the vet earned a six-year, $155 million deal. Cueto should be in line to grab a payday in that neighborhood.
Predicted Contract: Six years, $162 million
1. David Price, SP
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2016 Opening Day Age: 30
Predicted Landing Spot: Chicago Cubs
David Price's contract season is going exactly to script.
With a 14-5 record and a 2.43 ERA, the lefty has put himself right in the mix to snag the AL Cy Young Award. He's also put himself on track to score the richest deal of any free agent this winter.
Based on the numbers he's put up in 2015, it's not out of the question to think he could approach the seven-year $210 million deal (including deferred money) that Max Scherzer raked in last offseason. Here's how Price's 2015 season compares to Scherzer's campaign in 2014:
- Price: 2.43 ERA, 2.88 FIP
- Scherzer: 3.15 ERA, 2.85 FIP
According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the Chicago Cubs are one team that could be prepared to ink the ace:
"The Cubs are expected to make a big play for a free agent ace this winter, such as David Price or perhaps Jordan Zimmermann," per Heyman.
Adding Price to a rotation that would also include Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester would give the upstart club a nasty one-two-three punch. And with a core of high-upside position players already in place, the Cubs would be set up as a NL heavyweight for years to come.
Predicted Contract: Seven years, $210 million
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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