Fantasy Football 2015: TE Rankings, Sleepers and Risks to Avoid

The rise of the athletic, almost wide receiver-like tight end has been talked about as one of the recent trends around the NFL, but it’s been far from a league-wide success. Players like Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates may have been ahead of their time in the fantasy world, but finding similar players with the same success hasn’t been easy.

Players like Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham have risen to the top of the position in recent years, but there have been plenty of these tight ends who were primarily used for their receiving skills that haven’t produced the same big numbers. That’s why we tend to talk a lot about potential at this time of year—and are often left searching for legit starting options by November. 

I wish things had turned out different for Jermichael Finley in Green Bay or that Jared Cook became more than just an average producer, but unfortunately, there have been more disappointments than success stories. With some of these guys failing to take the next step, old standbys like Gates, Jason Witten and Heath Miller have remained fantasy-relevant since so many have failed to rise to the occasion. 

The reason I bring this to your attention is because, once again, we are looking at a TE group with a lot of potential, but very few sure things outside of the top four players. Throughout my articles and videos this preseason, I’ve continually talked about how ranking the 5-15 group is an exercise in futility because it’s so hard to differentiate between those players.

In the coming slides, I’ll try to make sense of it all, highlighting the players in the best spots, those who could be in for a decline and even some I’m praying to the fantasy gods will actually reach their potential and give us some depth at the position this year.

TE Rankings: The Gronk Stands Alone

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You shouldn’t need much of a explanation as to why Rob Gronkowski is the top-ranked tight end. However, I’ll get into my thoughts on why he has created such a gap between him and the next three players, Travis Kelce, Jimmy Graham and Greg Olsen, and why there’s another big gap between those three and the rest of the tight ends.

Gronkowski has become the weapon in New England, and their offense cycles through him, which explains why the Patriots haven’t invested much in their wide receiving corps in recent seasons. I don’t care who is throwing the ball to Gronkowski over the first four games; he’ll still dominate because he’s nearly uncoverable.

I lead the next group off with Kelce over Graham. Kelce should have been used more last season and will see an uptick in his role for a Kansas City Chiefs team that needs all the help they can get in the receiving corps. Graham has been right there with Gronkowski for the last few seasons, but is now in Seattle with too many questions that need answering. I’ll talk more about Graham and Olsen in just a bit.

Before we get to some specific players, here’s a look at my latest rankings after the third preseason game. This won’t change much between now and the start of the regular season barring a major injury or significant player movement.

 

2015 Preseason Rankings

Matt Camp PPR TE Rankings

StandardPPR

Published on September 2nd   Export

Rank	Player (team/bye)	ECR™	ADP
1	Rob Gronkowski (NE/4)	1	1
2	Travis Kelce (KC/9)	4	4
3	Jimmy Graham (SEA/9)	2	2
4	Greg Olsen (CAR/5)	3	3
5	Jordan Cameron (MIA/5)	6	6
6	Martellus Bennett (CHI/7)	5	5
7	Delanie Walker (TEN/4)	8	10
8	Jason Witten (DAL/6)	7	7
9	Kyle Rudolph (MIN/5)	11	12
10	Zach Ertz (PHI/8)	10	8
11	Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TB/6)	16	17
12	Eric Ebron (DET/9)	23	20
13	Tyler Eifert (CIN/7)	9	11
14	Coby Fleener (IND/10)	24	16
15	Julius Thomas (JAC/8)	12	9
16	Owen Daniels (DEN/7)	14	13
17	Antonio Gates (SD/10)	19	14
18	Vernon Davis (SF/10)	22	19
19	Maxx Williams (BAL/9)	29	29
20	Charles Clay (BUF/8)	20	26
21	Jordan Reed (WAS/8)	18	23
22	Heath Miller (PIT/11)	15	25
23	Jacob Tamme (ATL/10)	36	36
24	Richard Rodgers (GB/7)	27	24
25	Josh Hill (NO/11)	21	18
26	Larry Donnell (NYG/11)	13	22
27	Clive Walford (OAK/6)	39	34
28	Brent Celek (PHI/8)	44	43
29	Dwayne Allen (IND/10)	17	15
30	Benjamin Watson (NO/11)	28	35
31	Jeff Cumberland (NYJ/5)	35	33
32	Crockett Gillmore (BAL/9)	37	39
33	Ladarius Green (SD/10)	26	21
34	Jared Cook (STL/6)	25	27
35	Dion Sims (MIA/5)	38	58
36	Virgil Green (DEN/7)	30	30
37	Scott Chandler (NE/4)	43	37
38	Rob Housler (CLE/11)	32	32
39	Lance Kendricks (STL/6)	47	49
40	Jermaine Gresham (ARI/9)	46	46
41	Troy Niklas (ARI/9)	50	54
42	C.J. Fiedorowicz (HOU/9)	52
43	Luke Willson (SEA/9)	53	48
44	Darren Fells (ARI/9)	34	52
45	Garrett Graham (HOU/9)	40	47
46	Gavin Escobar (DAL/6)	49	42
47	Mychal Rivera (OAK/6)	31	28
48	Tim Wright (DET/9)	48	44
49	Marcedes Lewis (JAC/8)	33	56
50	Tyler Kroft (CIN/7)	68	41
51	Andrew Quarless (GB/7)	42	31
52	Tony Moeaki (ATL/10)	54
53	Chase Ford (MIN/5)	57
54	Jesse James (PIT/11)	72
55	Brandon Pettigrew (DET/9)	73	50
56	MarQueis Gray (BUF/8)	85
57	Derek Carrier (WAS/8)	108
58	Ed Dickson (CAR/5)	45
59	Anthony Fasano (TEN/4)	61	55
60	Daniel Fells (NYG/11)	60

2015 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros.

Riser: Cam Newton Needs Greg Olsen More Than Ever

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Amazingly, 2015 will be Olsen’s ninth year in the league and fifth as a member of the Panthers. It may also be his most important season in Carolina thanks to a terrible August.

The Panthers receiving corps took a huge hit when second-year wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin was lost to a torn ACL. As one of the team’s top targets, along with Olsen, Benjamin had a strong rookie season, leaving 145 targets to be replaced. The selection of WR Devin Funchess was supposed to give quarterback Cam Newton another big target on the outside, but with Benjamin’s injury, Funchess needs to step up into a much bigger role than expected. 

Unfortunately, Funchess has been battling a hamstring issue throughout the preseason that has kept him out of any game action. The injury flared up on August 31, according to Joe Person of the Charlotte Observer. Funchess was able to return to action the next day, per Jonathan Jones of the Observer, although it has to be a concern heading into what’s become a much more important rookie campaign for the second-round pick. 

This all points to Olsen being the primary target for Newton, which has raised his fantasy value heading into the regular season. He’s increased his catch total in each of the last three years (69, 73, 84) and is coming off a career-high 1,008 receiving yards in 2014. As offensive coordinator Mike Shula told ESPN.com's David Newton, “Every time he lines up, the defense has to know where he is.”

With Olsen coming off a career year sharing the field with Benjamin, he could be in line to top that as a more important part of the passing game in 2015.

Faller: Graham's Growing Pains

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Less than a year after signing him to a big contract following a dispute over his position, the Saints made the boldest move of the offseason when they shipped Jimmy Graham and a 2015 fourth-round pick to Seattle in exchange for center Max Unger and the 31st overall pick in the 2015 draft. 

Obviously, the question of why you ship your top offensive target to a conference rival after four huge seasons is what everyone was trying to figure out. From a fantasy perspective, Graham finished third in both fantasy points per game and total fantasy points at the tight end spot last season. However, that was a disappointment since Graham was consistently drafted in the first or second round at this time last year.

Graham battled a shoulder injury and, as he’s been known to do, played through it. He’s done this in the past, specifically in 2013, when he dealt with a torn plantar fascia, but it doesn’t always yield favorable results. In fact, Graham was held without a catch twice last season and failed to record at least four receptions in three other games. Expectations were too high to shrug off those underwhelming outings. 

Perhaps the Saints didn’t think they’d get enough back on their investment, and so the trade was made. Graham does give Russell Wilson the best target he’s ever had in four years with the Seahawks, but does that mean they’ll significantly ramp up the passing attack? Wilson has never attempted more than 452 passes in a season (2014), although that number has risen in each of his first three years.

Graham comes to a team that relies on their ground game to be the focal point of their offense, and because that wasn’t the case in New Orleans, he could be asked to block more often. Per Pro Football Focus, he’s been a run-blocker on 19 of 52 snaps (36.5 percent) through three preseason games. He did that on 214 of 790 (27.1 percent) snaps last season, so there’s an indication of a change in his role.

Even though Graham remains one of the best overall talents at the position, it’s hard not to be worried about him this season. Perhaps he won’t have a fifth straight season of at least 85 receptions, but he should remain a very active target in the red zone and could pick up his fourth season of at least 10 touchdowns.

It’s hard to say I’m down on a player ranked third at the position, but the sky-high expectations for Graham were left behind in New Orleans.

Riser: Jordan Cameron Finally Gets a Real QB

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Some of you may skip right over reading anything about Jordan Cameron’s rising fantasy value because of his concussion history. I fully understand that such a dangerous injury has really hampered Cameron over the last three seasons and another would be seriously troublesome to the future of his career. I get all of that, but please give me a chance to plead my case. 

Cameron survived four seasons in Cleveland, posting just one monster year in 2013, which included 80 receptions, 917 yards and seven touchdowns and made him a top-five fantasy tight end. Those numbers are in play once again this year because he’s playing with a legit, rising star at quarterback in Ryan Tannehill. He never had anyone near the same level of talent during his time with the Browns.

In addition to signing Cameron, the Dolphins traded for Kenny Stills, signed Greg Jennings and drafted DeVante Parker to join Jarvis Landry in what looks like a big upgrade over last season's receiving corps. Parker is still working his way back from a foot injury, so he may not have a huge impact this season, at least not right away. 

Stills and Jennings are far from superstars, and they aren’t the type of players you have to game-plan for to shut down. Landry should be the busiest target in this offense, but Cameron could be second in terms of targets. Last year, Tannehill targeted TEs Charles Clay and Dion Sims a combined 120 times. Sims could see around 36 targets again, but someone needs to replace Clay’s production—Cameron will be better than that and more.

While Clay provided Tannehill with a reliable chain-mover and red-zone threat, Cameron can do that and be a matchup nightmare for defenses because of his superior athleticism and size, which will be a problem for linebackers or smaller cornerbacks trying to cover him.

The concussion history limits just how high I can rank Cameron with confidence, but he’s still in the prime of his career and in a much better situation. Therefore, I’m willing to say he’s the fifth-best option at the position heading into this season with the hope that a healthy year yields big numbers.

Faller: Julius Thomas Can't Get Rid of the Injury Bug

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Following his two best seasons, Julius Thomas cashed in and left Denver for Jacksonville this offseason. The move was supposed to give the Jaguars a major upgrade at the tight end position over Marcedes Lewis and provide the team with a proven centerpiece to their passing attack. Unfortunately, Thomas hasn’t gotten off to a promising start—and the injury bug is to blame.

It’s been the story of Thomas’ four-year career, and it remains the biggest story heading into his fifth pro season and first with the Jaguars. Thomas broke his hand in the first preseason game, but was supposed to be ready for the regular-season opener. Unfortunately, a trip to the doctor indicated surgery was necessary, which could keep him out for a month, per Ian Rapoport of NFL Network.

Last season, Thomas dealt with an ankle injury that severely limited him down the stretch and caused him to miss three games. Ankle injuries have been a problem dating back to his rookie year in 2011 and have been popping up ever since. It took him two lost seasons before he made an impact in Denver, and now he won’t even get a chance to take the field for his new team when the season gets underway.

How do we even treat Thomas when he’s healthy? He goes from an all-time great in Peyton Manning to a second-year passer with a lot to prove in Blake Bortles. Unlike Denver, Thomas doesn’t have the luxury of talent like Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Eric Decker around him to take attention away. He’ll be the one to command the attention in a receiving corps that doesn’t boast much other than Allen Robinson.

The injury could be a convenient excuse to explain why Thomas doesn’t match the production we saw in Denver, but with a very different situation in Jacksonville, expectations shouldn’t be the same for Thomas to be one of the best fantasy TEs.

Sleepers: Are You Willing to Bet on Potential?

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As I talked about in the introduction, we’ve seen more disappointments at this position than productive fantasy players, so it’s hard to get too excited about potential when we’ve been burned so many times. Having said that, there are only so many places you can look for fantasy-relevant TEs, so I’ll try to pick out the best ones you can get for cheap.

You’ll notice some of these players struggled as rookies, which is pretty normal for the tight end position. It’s becomes a process of picking out the ones who figured it out and are ready to take the leap in their second season. The good news is that none of these sleepers should cost you a pick before the 10th round.

• Austin Seferian-Jenkins—Injuries and terrible quarterback play hurt him as a rookie. He should have a little more stability knowing Jameis Winston is in line to start all season. Plus, defenses can’t pay a lot of attention to him since they have to worry about Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson on the outside.
• Zach Ertz—I actually had Ertz in my top five before he went down in mid-August with a groin tear that required a procedure to fix. He’s not a lock to play in the opener, but the injury actually helped his ADP if you were looking to get him on the cheap. He’s still the best pass-catching TE the Eagles have, and he’s good enough to be the starter, even if his blocking isn’t as good as Brent Celek’s. Ertz’s impact may be delayed, but he’s one to watch.
• Eric Ebron—Like Seferian-Jenkins, Ebron had a forgettable rookie year, although his was more about too many drops and a failure to grasp the pro game. Injuries didn’t help much either, but Ebron is healthy and primed to bounce back in a high-volume passing offense that already boasts Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate as their top two receivers. Ebron could be very busy in the red zone and has the established talent around him to take advantage of defenses that don’t pay as much attention to him.
• Tyler Eifert—Eifert disappointed as a rookie and then missed nearly the entire 2014 season with an elbow injury. The former first-round pick still has a lot to prove and should have a chance to carve out a role as the No. 2 passing target behind A.J. Green.
• Owen Daniels—This doesn't fit the young, potential breakout mold of the previous four players, but he's going for cheaper and could be in a great spot. Daniels knows the Gary Kubiak offense from spending his entire career in that system, and in playing with Peyton Manning, you know the veteran QB appreciates guys he can trust. That means targets should be coming Daniels' way, especially in the red zone.

Avoids: Moving on from Old Reliables

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When it comes to the safe, yet boring tight ends, it’s hard to move on from them because they’ve been so reliable at a position that doesn’t boast many reliable fantasy options. However, I try to draw the line between reliability and those who can be replaced rather easily by looking for a good matchup on the waiver wire. 

It’s time to put some fantasy careers to bed. Some are names you’ve seen for years, while others are nothing more than hyped-up flops or flashes in the pan.

• Larry Donnell—Donnell found his way to the top of a terrible New York Giants tight end depth chart last season and actually finished as a top-12 fantasy TE. However, a closer look at his numbers shows that he failed to catch five passes in all but one game after the Week 8 bye, and he didn’t score in the final six games of 2014. Donnell was reliable early in the season, but tailed off at the end. Plus, the Giants added pass-catching back Shane Vereen, who could eat into Donnell’s targets both as a chain-mover and in the short-to-intermediate areas.
• Heath Miller—Miller is the definition of a safe but boring fantasy TE, yet he was one of only 11 players at the position to average double-digit fantasy points. I have trouble keeping the expectations as high in 2015 because I expect another receiver, whether it be Markus Wheaton or Martavis Bryant, to emerge as a consistent target in what should be a busy Steelers passing attack.
• Ladarius Green—I refused to buy into the Green hype last year, and I’m not doing it this year, even though he has a much bigger opportunity with Antonio Gates suspended for the first four games. Green is far from a polished receiver and hasn’t done much more than flash here and there on some big plays over the last two seasons. He’s disappeared far too often, and the Chargers will likely rely on Stevie Johnson more with Gates out of the lineup.

All rankings, projections and stats were provided by Fantasy Pros unless otherwise noted.