Why Dominating 1st-Round Matches is Crucial for Top Players at the US Open

Nobody’s going to win the 2015 U.S. Open in the first round, but half of the players are eliminated and many of the survivors will not be around for long. It also turns out to be an important round for the eventual champion, which could be crucial for favorites like Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, and for hopefuls like Rafael Nadal.

What is this pattern of success, and is its simplicity enough to forecast the U.S. Open winner?

The Pattern

At the 2000 U.S. Open final, talented young Marat Safin steamrolled aging superstar Pete Sampras. While many view this as a transitional time for tennis with one generation getting ready to replace another, it was also the last time the U.S. Open champion lost even one set in the first round. Since 2000, all U.S. Open champions have been straight-sets winners in the first round.

Is that really important? The short answer is that it’s probably much more important now than it was when Sampras’ quick-strike game more often than not stifled the sport’s top baseline players.

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

As Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Andy Murray have mostly ruled the modern scene in tennis, the sport has become more physical, more vertical and with generally longer, more grueling matches and deeper fields of fit veterans.

The eventual champion needs to be talented and great, but he must also persevere with his mind and body. It’s a war of attrition by the end of the tournament, and much of his energy reserve and fighting resolve might be determined by how easily he could dispatch his opening opponents.

For instance, Federer won his 2005 opening match with three breadsticks (that’s three sets of 6-1) over Ivo Minar. Not surprisingly, he went on to complete another dominating championship, highlighted by his superior youth, energy and strength over 35-year-old Andre Agassi (who also won his opener in straight sets).

Look closely at what Djokovic did on Day 1 at the U.S. Open. That’s right, three breadsticks over first-round opponent Joao Souza. It doesn’t mean Djokovic is going to win the championship, but he’s right on track, and he’s in that diminishing pool of legitimate contenders.

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Top seed Djokovic needs just 70 minutes to d. Souza 61 61 61. He improves to 42-2 in Grand Slam 1R matches. #USOpen #ESPNTennis

— ESPNTennis (@ESPNTennis) August 31, 2015"

Straight-Sets Winners

There are 128 players in the draw and 64 Round 1 winners. There were 31 straight-sets winners:

1. Novak Djokovic
2. Andreas Seppi
3. Roberto Bautista Agut
4. David Goffin
5. Milos Raonic
6. Feliciano Lopez
7. Diego Schwartzman
8. Tommy Robredo
9. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
10. Marcel Granollers
11. Marin Cilic
12. Mikhail Kukushkin
13. Grigor Dimitrov
14. Filip Krajinovic
15. Stan Wawrinka
16. Hyeon Chung
17. Jack Sock
18. Viktor Troicki
19. Rajeev Ram
20. Dominic Thiem
21. Thomaz Bellucci
22. Adrian Mannarino
23. Tomas Berdych
24. Jurgen Melzer
25. Nicolas Mahut
26. Lleyton Hewitt
27. John Isner
28. Jiri Vesely
29. Ivo Karlovic
30. Lukas Rosol
31. Roger Federer

Two things stand out:

First, there are some important stars missing from this list. Kei Nishikori was eliminated, but winners Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray needed four sets apiece to take care of young guns Borna Coric and Nick Kyrgios. Nobody’s going to conclusively eliminate Nadal or Murray at this point, but history shows it will be tougher.

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Maybe that extra set will take its toll by the second week, so it’s more than an ominous sign, but the reality that harder, tougher matches do matter. David Ferrer and Richard Gasquet can hardly feel like world-beaters either. 

Second, we can safely eliminate several of the 31 players who are likely not going to get through the first week if they survive the second round. The following top-20 players might be the only contenders left who can legitimately make a claim to go deep into the second week.

1. Novak Djokovic
2. David Goffin
3. Milos Raonic
4. Feliciano Lopez
5. Tommy Robredo
6. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
7. Marin Cilic
8. Grigor Dimitrov
9. Stan Wawrinka
10. Dominic Thiem
11. Tomas Berdych
12. John Isner
13. Roger Federer.

Which players have the firepower and possibility to win the U.S. Open? According to this 21st-century pattern, we are really left with Djokovic, Federer, Wawrinka and Cilic as proven major winners, while we could list Raonic (health still in doubt), Tsonga, Dimitrov, Thiem and Berdych as shocking possibilities.

It bears repeating that the pattern is not a prophecy but a solid, data-driven piece of evidence that it is important to start strong in order to have a chance at the trophy.

Let’s see who gets chopped off the list in Round 2 and who can continue his dominant play. It’s still a long tournament to decide the champion.