25 Predictions for September Baseball
The final month of the MLB regular season is here, and this year's stretch run promises to once again be exciting on a number of fronts.
There are still several playoff spots up for grabs in both leagues, and the second wild-card spot has made more teams contenders heading into these final few weeks.
Even on non-contending teams, there is no shortage of intriguing storylines to follow, as September also brings an influx of young talent with expanded rosters.
At any rate, it's prediction time once again, and what follows are 25 predictions both on the team and individual side of things for this September around Major League Baseball.
David Ortiz Hits His 500th Career Home Run
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This prediction is pretty much a layup at this point, but the impending milestone deserves some attention regardless.
With his next long ball, David Ortiz will have 30 home runs this season, making it nine times in his illustrious career that he's reached that mark.
More importantly for his legacy, he is just five home runs away from 500, as he's set to become the 27th member of that prestigious club.
That number doesn't quite mean what it did in the days prior to the steroid era, but it's an impressive achievement nonetheless, and that goes doubly for Ortiz when you take into account the way his career started.
When Ortiz joined the Boston Red Sox prior to the 2003 season, he was already 27 years old but had just 58 career home runs under his belt.
Compared to the 26 players currently in the 500 home run club, that represents the lowest total of anyone heading into their age-27 campaign.
Here's how Ortiz stacks up to the next five closest in that department:
| David Ortiz | 58 | 437 | 495 |
| Rafael Palmeiro | 73 | 496 | 569 |
| Gary Sheffield | 117 | 392 | 509 |
| Ted Williams | 127 | 394 | 521 |
| Sammy Sosa | 131 | 478 | 609 |
| Mike Schmidt | 131 | 417 | 548 |
That is incredibly impressive stuff, and his 437 total home runs since his age-26 season are also good for the eighth-highest total in MLB history.
The Hall of Fame voters have not been kind to designated hitters to this point, with Edgar Martinez receiving no higher than 36.5 percent of the vote in six tries, but it's going to be awfully hard to keep Big Papi out once his time comes.
Several Single-Season Franchise Records Fall
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While a milestone like 500 home runs for David Ortiz or the 3,000-hit mark that Alex Rodriguez reached earlier this season make headlines, individual team records are also an accomplishment worth celebrating.
Last season, Seattle Mariners closer Fernando Rodney set a new single-season team mark for saves with 48, surpassing the 45 saves Kaz Sasaki recorded in 2001.
On the offensive side, Jose Altuve banged out 225 hits to break the Houston Astros record previously held by Craig Biggio, who had 210 hits in 1998.
So which team records are in jeopardy of falling over the final month?
Here are five with a good chance of going down:
| Washington | 8.0 (Bryce Harper) | 9.0 (Pedro Martinez, 1997) | |
| Tampa Bay | 223 (Chris Archer) | 239 (Scott Kazmir, 2007) | |
| Chicago (AL) | 239 (Chris Sale) | 269 (Ed Walsh, 1908) | |
| Pittsburgh | 43 (Mark Melancon) | 46 (Mike Williams, 2002) | |
| St. Louis | 42 (Trevor Rosenthal) | 47 (Jason Isringhausen, 2004) |
Smart money would have to be on all five happening at this point, barring injury.
One more milestone of note.
With an NL-high 236 strikeouts already, Clayton Kershaw needs just 13 more to set a new personal best. That's a ridiculously low number when you consider how good he's been in his career and how many starts he has left this year.
The club record of 382 set by Sandy Koufax in 1965 would appear to be safe, though.
Ian Kennedy Pitches His Way into a Qualifying Offer
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A 21-game winner and legitimate NL Cy Young candidate in 2011, Ian Kennedy struggled to duplicate that level of success until a bounce-back season last year.
In what was his first full season with the San Diego Padres, Kennedy went 13-13 with a 3.63 ERA, 1.289 WHIP and 207 strikeouts in 201 innings of work.
His 3.21 FIP was good for eighth in the National League, and he looked poised for a big contract year heading into 2015.
Instead, he began the season at 2-5 with a 7.15 ERA in his first eight starts while also missing time with a hamstring injury as his stock reached an all-time low.
He's turned a major corner since the start of June, though, going 6-7 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.150 WHIP while recording 11 quality starts in 16 games.
After opting not to deal him (or anyone for that matter) at the trade deadline, the Padres have a tough decision to make with the 30-year-old this coming offseason.
If Kennedy can finish strong, the floor in negotiations with him could be the four-year, $48 million deal Brandon McCarthy signed with the Dodgers this past December.
He may not get the annual value of a qualifying offer, which was $15.3 million last year and will likely climb again this winter, but multiple years will almost certainly be on the table.
That would make a qualifying offer a wise move for the Padres, as he's a good bet to decline the offer and hit the open market, leaving the Padres with a compensatory draft pick at the very least.
It all hinges on how he performs over the final month of the season.
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Giancarlo Stanton Leads the National League in Home Runs
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Giancarlo Stanton has not hit a home run since June 24.
And yet, the Miami Marlins mammoth slugger still finds himself tied for fifth in the National League home run race, just five behind Nolan Arenado for the top spot.
Stanton has been sidelined since June 26 with a hand injury that wound up being a broken hamate bone, but if all goes according to plan, he's set to return to the lineup this Friday.
The 25-year-old launched 27 home runs in just 279 at-bats prior to landing on the disabled list, after leading the NL with 37 last season in what was another injury-shortened campaign.
As long as he's healthy the rest of the way, there's no reason to think Stanton can't close the gap and once again pace the league in long balls.
Kevin Kiermaier Breaks the Single-Season Defensive Runs Saved Record
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Take this for what it is, because defensive runs saved (DRS) has only been a statistic since the 2003 season, but Tampa Bay Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier is on his way to the best single-season total we've ever seen in that category.
Entering the month of September, he has 35 DRS to his credit.
Let's take a look at where that currently stacks up on the all-time list, courtesy of FanGraphs:
- SS Andrelton Simmons, ATL (41, 2013)
- CF Carlos Gomez, MIL (38, 2013)
- RF Gerardo Parra, ARI (36, 2013)
- 3B Manny Machado, BAL (35, 2013)
- CF Kevin Kiermaier, TB (35, 2015)
- SS Adam Everett, HOU (34, 2006)
- SS Jack Wilson, PIT (32, 2005)
- RF Jason Heyward, ATL (32, 2014)
- CF Franklin Gutierrez, SEA (32, 2009)
- 1B Albert Pujols, STL (31, 2007)
- SS Troy Tulowitzki, COL (31, 2007)
Top Five, Outfielders
- CF Carlos Gomez, MIL (38, 2013)
- RF Gerardo Parra, ARI (36, 2013)
- CF Kevin Kiermaier, TB (35, 2015)
- CF Franklin Gutierrez, SEA (32, 2009)
- RF Jason Heyward, ATL (32, 2014)
The 25-year-old is having a special season with the glove, and while his offense has been noting to write home about (97 OPS+), his 6.2 WAR ranks fourth among AL position players.
Adam Wainwright Returns, Pitches out of the Bullpen
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Most teams would be thrilled to get their ace back, even if it's for just a couple starts at the end of the year, but for the St. Louis Cardinals, the potential return of Adam Wainwright leaves them with a tough decision to make.
The 34-year-old is currently working his way back from a ruptured Achilles that was originally expected to end his season, but he's ahead of schedule, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, and could now return down the stretch.
All the Cardinals have done in his absence is put up the best starters' ERA in all of baseball at 2.82, and there has not been a weak link in the staff since Jaime Garcia returned from injury.
Carlos Martinez missed his scheduled start Tuesday, as he's dealing with a minor back issue, per MLB.com's Joe Harris. Assuming he's fine moving forward, however, the rotation looks as follows:
- Michael Wacha (15-4, 2.69 ERA, 134 K)
- Lance Lynn (11-8, 2.80 ERA, 148 K)
- John Lackey (11-8, 2.87 ERA, 135 K)
- Carlos Martinez (13-6, 2.91 ERA, 156 K)
- Garcia (7-4, 2.03 ERA, 64 K)
That's nothing short of ridiculous, and while Wainwright is one of the best in the game when healthy, it's tough to justify bumping one of those guys while he works his way back into form.
The team found itself in a similar position last year when Wacha was activated in early September after missing 68 games with a stress fracture in his shoulder.
He rejoined the rotation upon returning but was kept on an extremely short leash (16.2 IP total in four starts) before moving to the bullpen in the postseason.
It was in the bullpen that Wainwright first made a name for himself during the 2006 postseason, and we've seen in recent years how big a role the long reliever can play in a series. Think Yusmeiro Petit for the San Francisco Giants last year.
It would certainly look odd seeing Wainwright trot in from the bullpen, but he's the kind of player who would do whatever it takes to help the club. At this point, that may be stepping into the long relief role.
Marcus Stroman Returns, Pitches His Way Back into the Rotation
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Another key arm that appeared to be done for the year but is well ahead of schedule on the rehab trail is Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman.
After going 11-6 with a 3.65 ERA, 1.171 WHIP and 111 strikeouts in 130.2 innings as a rookie last season, many expected him to take another step forward and emerge as the ace of the staff.
Instead, he suffered a torn ACL during spring training, and all signs pointed to his 2015 season being a wash in March.
He received a clean bill of health from Dr. James Andrews on Aug. 10, according to ESPN.com, and threw off of a mound the following day.
He'll make a rehab start for Single-A Lansing on Wednesday and be stretched out as a starter in the minors, but the plan for now appears to be to send him to the bullpen once he is ready to return to Toronto.
"Right now he's being stretched out to start because at least it gives us more options, more flexibility," general manager Alex Anthopoulos told Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com. "We're not committing to anything because we just don't know how his stuff's going to be, how his command's going to be."
The Blue Jays rotation was terrific in August, as the entire staff seemingly raised their games alongside new addition David Price.
However, all it will take is for one guy to string together a few bad starts and Stroman to be dialed in upon returning, and the team will have to make a move, provided how close the AL East race figures to be.
He may not win a spot in the playoff rotation, but Stroman will make at least a couple of starts this season, one way or another.
George Springer Is a Huge September X-Factor
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Very few players around the league had a better month of June than Houston Astros right fielder George Springer.
After a relatively slow start to the season, the 25-year-old caught fire to hit .321/.387/.518 with six home runs, 12 RBI and 19 runs scored in 29 games during the month.
However, his July was seemingly over before it started, when a fastball from Edinson Volquez ended in a fractured right wrist.
"It's definitely a big blow," GM Jeff Luhnow told Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle following the injury. "Springer is in some ways the heart and soul of this team. He's been playing well and contributing."
His loss led the team to acquire Carlos Gomez from the Milwaukee Brewers at the trade deadline, but he's been largely ineffective to this point, with a .214/.246/.304 line in 29 games.
All told, the team is 45-30 (.600) with Springer in the lineup, compared to just 28-30 (.483) without him.
He began a rehab assignment this past weekend to work on "shaking off the cobwebs," Springer told Damen Clow of MLB.com. Barring any setbacks, he should be closing in on a return to the Houston lineup in the near future.
Expect him to play a major role in the team locking down its first division title since it won the NL Central in 2001.
Miguel Sano Stays Hot, Overtakes Carlos Correa for AL Rookie of the Year
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Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa looked to have the AL Rookie of the Year award wrapped up heading into August, despite the fact that he was not called up until June 8.
Through the end of July, the 20-year-old was hitting an impressive .296/.344/.542 with 14 doubles, 10 home runs and 29 RBI in 45 games, and he was doing it as a key piece of the puzzle for a contending Astros team.
However, he's been slowed by a hamstring injury of late, and Minnesota Twins rookie slugger Miguel Sano has closed the gap considerably in the process.
Here's how the two currently stack up statistically:
Over the final 18 games of August, Sano hit .323/.423/.754 with eight home runs and 22 RBI, so he's clearly trending upward heading into the final month.
During that same span, Correa batted .255/.349/.382 with two home runs and eight RBI while missing four games with the hamstring.
If the season ended today, there's a good chance Correa would still claim the hardware. If things continue as they have of late, however, don't be surprised if Sano takes home top AL rookie honors.
Jake Arrieta Makes the NL Cy Young Vote a Tough One
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Zack Greinke has been the best pitcher in baseball this season—there's little debate on that subject—but don't be surprised if the NL Cy Young race winds up being closer than anticipated when the season finally does come to a close.
At 15-3 with a 1.59 ERA, 0.846 WHIP and 169 strikeouts in 186.2 innings, Greinke is arguably having a better season than Clayton Kershaw did last year during his run to NL MVP honors.
He's not exactly showing any signs of slowing down either, as he kicked off the month of September with a win over the rival San Francisco Giants and Madison Bumgarner, allowing just one run in 7.1 innings of work.
However, an awfully strong case can be made for Jake Arrieta being the best pitcher in the game at this very moment.
Coming off of a no-hitter he threw in front of Greinke on Sunday night, Arrieta wrapped up the month of August at 6-0 with a 0.43 ERA and just 19 hits allowed in 42.1 innings of work.
As we saw last season, the voters can be swayed by the hot hand, as Felix Hernandez looked like the AL Cy Young favorite for most of the year before Corey Kluber overtook him.
Despite the fact that King Felix led the league in ERA and WHIP, the final two months of the season proved to be the difference:
- Hernandez: 11 GS, 4-3, 2.42 ERA, 0.976 WHIP
- Kluber: 11 GS, 7-3, 2.09 ERA, 1.125 WHIP
Hernandez was by no means bad; far from it, in fact. However, Kluber was absolutely dominant down the stretch, going 5-0 with a 1.12 ERA over his final five starts.
Similar finishes from Greinke and Arrieta could net a similar result, or at the very least make things tougher on the voters.
Someone Other Than Bryce Harper Wins NL MVP
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For much of the season, Bryce Harper has been in a league of his own as far as his offensive production is concerned.
Even after a relatively quiet month of August where he hit .327/.460/.449 but managed just two home runs and nine RBI, his overall stat line still jumps off the page:
- 424 AB, .333/.461/.630, 31 2B, 31 HR, 78 RBI, 92 R, 100 BB
However, the Washington Nationals currently sit 6.5 games back in the NL East and nine games out for the second wild card.
As a result, Harper is quickly sliding into the same category as Paul Goldschmidt of the Arizona Diamondbacks: terrific numbers on a non-contending team.
It's rare these days that the MVP does not come from a team that reaches the postseason, with the last example being Albert Pujols with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2008.
So, who does that leave as the front-runners for the award if not Harper?
Right now, it would probably be Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen, with Chicago Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo also in the conversation.
The Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals don't necessarily have one clear-cut offensive standout this year, while the New York Mets only recently figured out how to hit the ball and are also lacking an obvious candidate.
Buster Posey can't be counted out either if the San Francisco Giants are able to make a push and climb into the playoff picture, but right now, McCutchen appears to be the favorite to win for the second time in his career.
St. Louis Cardinals Finish with Best Team ERA Since 1981
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Here is a quick look at all the teams that have finished with a sub-3.00 ERA in the past 40 years:
- 1989 Dodgers: 2.95 ERA
- 1988 Mets: 2.91 ERA
- 1988 Dodgers: 2.96 ERA
- 1985 Dodgers: 2.96
- 1981 Astros: 2.66 ERA
- 1981 Yankees: 2.90 ERA
- 1976 Mets: 2.94 ERA
- 1975 Dodgers: 2.92 ERA
- 1974 Athletics: 2.95 ERA
- 1974 Dodgers: 2.98 ERA
The fact that no team has pulled it off since 1989 in and of itself speaks volumes to what an accomplishment it will be.
However, when you consider that the Cardinals' current team ERA of 2.66 is tied with the Houston Astros during a strike-shortened 1981 season for the best team ERA in the past 40 years, it's all the more impressive.
As we spelled out earlier, there's no weak link in the Cardinals rotation, but their bullpen has also been lights out with a 2.34 ERA and the late-inning duo of Kevin Siegrist and Trevor Rosenthal leading the way.
Their team ERA will likely climb a bit between now and the end of the season, as they start to spread out the innings a bit more to keep their starters fresh heading into October.
There's still plenty of wiggle room, though, for them to post the best ERA we've seen since 1981.
Atlanta Braves Secure the Worst Record, No. 1 Pick in the 2016 Draft
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No team is trending harder downward right now than the Atlanta Braves.
Just ask Shelby Miller, who at this point could probably throw a no-hitter and still somehow come away with a loss or at the very least a no-decision.
They finished up the month of August at 8-20 with a minus-80 run differential, and they had lost 14 of 15 heading into play on Wednesday.
Despite that, they still sit in third place in the NL East standings. Ultimately, however, they should be right in the mix for the worst record in baseball and the No. 1 pick in next June's draft.
Here's a look at how the reverse standings currently shake out:
- Philadelphia Phillies (53-80, .398)
- Colorado Rockies (53-78, .405)
- Miami Marlins (54-79, .406)
- Atlanta Braves (54-78, .409)
- Cincinnati Reds (54-77, .412)
- Milwaukee Brewers (56-75, .427)
- Oakland Athletics (58-75, .436)
Heading into the season, it would have been an upset to pick anyone but the Philadelphia Phillies to wind up with the No. 1 pick in the 2016 draft. However, they've gone an impressive 24-18 since the All-Star break and no longer look like the worst team in baseball.
That distinction belongs squarely to the rebuilding Braves. By the time the season wraps up, expect them to be on the bottom of the standings and the top of next year's draft.
Philadelphia Phillies Finish Third in the NL East
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We touched on it briefly in the last slide, but just in case you missed it, let's say it again: The Philadelphia Phillies are 24-18 since the All-Star break.
That's good for the fifth-best record in the National League in the second half, and better than contending teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants and Washington Nationals.
The Phillies still currently reside in the NL East cellar, but they are just one game behind the Miami Marlins for fourth place and 1.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves for third.
Let's take a quick look at how those three teams have performed over the course of the year:
- Phillies: 29-62 first half, 24-18 second half, 12-16 August
- Marlins: 38-51 first half, 16-28 second half, 11-18 August
- Braves: 42-47 first half, 12-31 second half, 8-20 August
It's really more telling of just how bad the bottom of the NL East is than anything else, as the Phillies could legitimately finish in third place in the division with the third-worst record in all of baseball.
Nonetheless, a third-place finish is far more than anyone expected out of this team when the season began, and the franchise finally seems to be headed in the right direction.
Cleveland Indians Pass the Minnesota Twins
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Many writers, myself included, expected the Cleveland Indians to climb their way back into the playoff picture after a disappointing 42-46 first half of the season.
Instead, after going 7-13 in their first 20 games following the All-Star break, they found themselves 10 games under .500 and in last place in the AL Central standings on Aug. 7.
However, they are 15-8 since then, and that includes a recent six-game winning streak that was finally snapped on Tuesday.
That recent run of success leaves them at 64-67 on the season and just four games behind the Minnesota Twins for second place in the division.
The Twins have held their own during that same span, going 13-9 to keep the Indians from making up much ground. But with the starting pitching again looking like an issue in Minnesota, the Indians look like the better team right now.
The New York Yankees and Texas Rangers still look like the two AL wild-card teams at this point, but look for the Indians to climb over .500, into second place in the division and at least into the conversation for a wild-card spot over the final weeks of the season.
Chicago Cubs Claim No. 2 NL Wild-Card Spot
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The 2015 season was supposed to be the year the Chicago Cubs finally started to reap the rewards of their rebuilding efforts, but a playoff appearance still appeared out of reach at the beginning of the season. A step forward from the young talent and a winning record would have represented a major step forward for the franchise.
Instead, the young core has turned potential into production quicker than expected, as the team trots out four rookies in the starting lineup when everyone is healthy.
While nothing is comfortable when you're talking about the Cubs, they currently hold a nice cushion for the second NL wild-card spot with a 6.5-game lead over the San Francisco Giants and a nine-game lead over the Washington Nationals.
Six games each against the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates and a makeup game with the Kansas City Royals are the team's only remaining contests against teams with a winning record. At this point, a .500 mark the rest of the way would probably be enough to slide into the postseason.
Pittsburgh Pirates Claim No. 1 NL Wild-Card Spot
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An awfully convincing case can be made that the Pittsburgh Pirates are not only the second-best team in the NL Central and second-best team in the National League in general, but that they are in fact the second-best team in all of baseball this season.
Andrew McCutchen is once again having an MVP-caliber year, and now that Jordy Mercer and Josh Harrison are back healthy, there is no clear weakness in the lineup and an impressive amount of bench depth to boot.
Meanwhile, Gerrit Cole has taken the next step forward this season and emerged as a bona fide ace atop the rotation.
Getting A.J. Burnett back healthy would be nice, but deadline pickup J.A. Happ (5 GS, 3-1, 1.98 ERA) has been a terrific addition and Francisco Liriano remains a rock-solid No. 2 option behind Cole.
Throw in a pitching staff that ranks second in the majors with a 3.15 ERA and features MLB saves leader Mark Melancon, who is 43-of-45 on save chances, and all the pieces are there for this Pirates team to make some serious noise.
Unfortunately, because they line up in the same division as the St. Louis Cardinals, it appears they'll be headed for the Wild Card Round for the third consecutive season.
Los Angeles Dodgers Win NL West, No. 3 Seed in National League
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There are plenty of questions surrounding the 2015 Los Angeles Dodgers, most notably at the back end of their rotation and in the bullpen, but at this point, they are still the team to beat in the NL West.
With a win over Madison Bumgarner and the San Francisco Giants on Tuesday night, they now hold a 5.5-game lead in the NL West standings as they look to secure a third consecutive division title.
Everyone knows how good the one-two punch of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke has been this season, and facing them in the playoffs is a scary proposition for any team, even with the shaky October track record that Kershaw has to this point in his career.
However, the trio of Brett Anderson, Alex Wood and Mat Latos behind them in the rotation is not going to scare anyone.
To his credit, Anderson has been a terrific addition on a one-year deal after several injury-shortened seasons, as he's gone 8-8 with a 3.43 ERA in 152.1 innings, which is the most he's thrown since his rookie year back in 2009. The other two have been more miss than hit since being acquired at the deadline, though.
Then there's the bullpen, which is again anchored by veteran setup man J.P. Howell and nasty closer Kenley Jansen, but has again struggled to bridge the gap to those guys. They currently rank 21st in the league, the lowest of any NL contender, with a 3.95 ERA.
They are currently 1.5 games up on the New York Mets for the No. 2 seed in the National League, but expect those two teams to flip-flop heading into a Division Series matchup.
New York Mets Win NL East, No. 2 Seed in National League
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Over the first four months of the season, the New York Mets averaged a mediocre 3.54 runs per game, sparking legitimate questions about whether they would hit enough to help their terrific pitching staff reach the postseason.
However, with the additions of Yoenis Cespedes, Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson and the recent return of David Wright, their offense has exploded.
They averaged an even 6.00 runs per game during the month of August, and went 20-8 in the process, turning a two-game deficit in the NL East into a 6.5-game lead over the Washington Nationals.
The division race is by no means locked up, as the Nationals have perhaps the easiest schedule in baseball the rest of the way with just seven games left against winning teams.
However, the Mets really don't have it much tougher, with a three-game series against the New York Yankees and their six remaining games against the Nationals as the only significant hurdles left on their schedule.
The Mets have not been to the playoffs since 2006, but on the back of their newfound offensive thump and a dominant pitching rotation that should have plenty of rest once Steven Matz returns and they go back to a six-man rotation, they will be a tough draw come October.
St. Louis Cardinals Win NL Central, No. 1 Seed in National League
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The St. Louis Cardinals have been the best team in baseball nearly wire-to-wire this year, and they've done it through myriad injuries to key players.
Rookie Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty have come through in a big way for the offense while Matt Adams and Matt Holliday have missed significant time, and offseason addition Jason Heyward has erupted with a .329/.394/.497 line since the All-Star break.
On the pitching side of things, the team has not only overcome the loss of Adam Wainwright but has been flat-out brilliant in the process, with a 2.66 team ERA that has a chance to be the best single-season team mark we've seen since 1981.
The bullpen also looks solid, with Kevin Siegrist bouncing back from a tough 2014 season and Trevor Rosenthal taking a step forward and emerging as a lights-out option in the ninth.
This team is playing terrific baseball right now, coming off of a 19-9 month of August in which it lost just one series. While the Pittsburgh Pirates are just six games back in the NL Central, the Cardinals look like a safe bet for the No. 1 seed in the National League.
They are currently on pace for 106 wins, which would be the most since the Seattle Mariners won 116 in 2001. It would also be the first 100-win season since the Philadelphia Phillies won 102 in 2011.
New York Yankees Claim No. 2 AL Wild-Card Spot
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Despite being overtaken by the Toronto Blue Jays for the AL East lead, the New York Yankees still look like a safe bet to be playing in October.
They currently hold the No. 1 wild-card spot in the AL, with a five-game cushion to at least stay in one of the two spots. While they went just 14-14 in August, the pitching staff looks much better than it did a month ago.
Rookie Luis Severino (5 GS, 2-2, 2.17 ERA) has been terrific since joining the rotation, while Nathan Eovaldi has turned in some brilliant starts and begun to find a bit more consistency.
It's the offense that has been an issue of late, and while their 4.71 runs per game in August certainly looks good, it's drastically skewed by four games in which they scored a combined 60 runs. In their other 24 games, they averaged just 3.00 runs per game.
The recent drop-offs by the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays certainly helps their cause, as it not only thins the crowd chasing them in the wild-card race, but those two teams are also their opponents in 12 of their final 31 games.
That being said, don't be surprised if the Yankees are not playing host when the Wild Card Round arrives.
Texas Rangers Claim No. 1 AL Wild-Card Spot
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The Texas Rangers sat at 47-52 on July 28, putting them eight games back in the AL West and five back in for the second wild-card spot with six teams to pass.
However, they've gone 22-10 since, including 14-5 in their last 19 games, and in the process have pulled within three games of the first-place Houston Astros.
More importantly, they now hold a one-game lead over the Minnesota Twins for the second wild-card spot, and the New York Yankees are within striking distance at four games up for the right to host the Wild Card Round game.
Cole Hamels has returned to form after a rocky first two starts after joining the team, and he's now flanked by the healthy duo of Derek Holland and Martin Perez as well as Yovani Gallardo.
The offense has been solid all season, and August was no different, as they plated 4.54 runs per game on their way to a plus-15 run differential.
The Rangers play nothing but division games the rest of the way, save for a three-game series with the struggling Detroit Tigers. It's not out of the question to think they could catch the Astros, but at the very least they should be able to climb into the No. 1 wild-card slot.
Houston Astros Win AL West, No. 3 Seed in American League
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The Houston Astros have been one of the best stories of 2015, and barring a disastrous collapse, they will be returning to the postseason for the first time since being swept in the 2005 World Series.
The return of George Springer should provide the offense with a significant spark, and the same goes for getting Carlos Correa back, as he's battled a hamstring injury and seen his production drop a bit as a result.
Their all-or-nothing approach at the plate has been fun to watch, but it remains to be seen whether it can work on the postseason stage when pitchers are dialed in and mistakes are few and far between.
At any rate, the starting rotation behind Cy Young candidate Dallas Keuchel was the big question for this team leading up to the trade deadline. However, the additions of Scott Kazmir (7 GS, 2-4, 2.64 ERA) and Mike Fiers (4 GS, 2-0, 2.25 ERA) have helped ease some of those concerns.
Finding a second lefty reliever looked like the final piece of the puzzle, and they were able to land Oliver Perez through waivers. At this point, it's just a matter of digging in and holding off the hard-charging Texas Rangers.
Toronto Blue Jays Win AL East, No. 2 Seed in American League
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Pitching may win championships, but no pitcher in their right mind would want to face the Toronto Blue Jays' juggernaut of an offense in October.
The team has gone an impressive 22-6 since adding David Price, Troy Tulowitzki and a number of other complementary pieces at the trade deadline. In the process, they've turned a six-game deficit in the AL East into a 1.5-game lead.
The starting rotation has seemingly rallied around Price, and more help could be on the way in the form of Marcus Stroman, who is looking to make a ridiculously quick return from a torn ACL.
Trusting a rookie duo at the back of the bullpen is a risky proposition, but Roberto Osuna and Aaron Sanchez have been lights out in the second half, and veteran LaTroy Hawkins (12 G, 0.79 ERA) has quietly been a fantastic addition as well.
They may not catch the Kansas City Royals for the best record in the American League, as they currently trail them by 5.5 games for that distinction, but an AL East title and home-field advantage in the Division Series looks like a safe bet.
As Chris Cwik of Yahoo Sports' Big League Stew opines, Jays fans will finally be able to celebrate an end to the MLB's longest active playoff drought.
"Get excited, Toronto fans, because it looks like that playoff drought is coming to an end. Everyone knew the Blue Jays could hit, but the team’s pitching staff has actually been much better since the trade deadline. Picking up David Price certainly helped, but R. A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle and Marco Estrada have all put up decent numbers as well. For a large portion of the year, the Blue Jays have had the best run differential in baseball. The Yankees are a big threat, but it’s starting to look like they won’t be able to unseat Toronto in the AL East.
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Kansas City Royals Win AL Central, No. 1 Seed in American League
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While they were no doubt a talented team heading into 2015, the Kansas City Royals appeared to have a tough road ahead in an AL Central division that seemingly had four legitimate contenders for the top spot.
Instead, they have sprinted out to a 12-game lead in the standings, and the one team that wasn't expected to be in the mix—the Minnesota Twins—is the only other squad in the division with a winning record.
Gotta love baseball.
There are still some questions about who fills out the starting rotation behind prized deadline pickup Johnny Cueto, and there's always the concern of clinching early and coasting down the stretch, then trying to turn it back on come October.
However, this team is once again built on speed, defense and a dominant bullpen, and those are three things than a team can lean on heavily when the playoffs roll around.
The return of Alex Gordon also allows them to fully utilize the versatility of Ben Zobrist, who has hit .316/.406/.491 in 30 games but has stuck in left field on an everyday basis.
Could back-to-back World Series appearances be in the cards for the Royals now that they snapped their lengthy playoff drought? Crazier things have happened.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted.
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