US Open Tennis 2015: Bracket Predictions, Odds for Top Players and Prize Money
The 2014 U.S. Open saw the emergence of an unexpected champion in Marin Cilic, who captured his first—and to date, only—Grand Slam title as the No. 14 seed.
Cilic was absolutely dominant en route to Grand Slam glory, winning every match from the quarterfinals on in straight sets. His win continued a surprising trend—considering how tennis is typically dominated by a select few names—of six consecutive U.S. Opens with a different champion; there hasn't been a repeat since Roger Federer's five straight titles from 2004-2008.
That doesn't bode particularly well for Cilic, though the Open's No. 9 seed is still considered a top contender for the title, according to OddsShark.com:
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| Player | Odds | Predicted Finish |
| Novak Djokovic | +110 | Loss in championship match |
| Andy Murray | +350 | Loss in semifinals |
| Roger Federer | +400 | Champion |
| Feliciano Lopez | +500 | Loss in quarterfinals |
| Andreas Seppi | +500 | Loss in third round |
| Stan Wawrinka | +1200 | Loss in quarterfinals |
| Kei Nishikori | +1600 | Loss in semifinals |
| Diego Sebastian Schwartzman | +2000 | Loss in second round |
| Rafael Nadal | +2200 | Loss in fourth round |
| Marin Cilic | +5000 | Loss in quarterfinals |
| Grigor Dimitrov | +5000 | Loss in third round |
| Tomas Berdych | +5000 | Loss in fourth round |
| Milos Raonic | +10000 | Loss in third round |
| Jo-Wilfried Tsonga | +10000 | Loss in fourth round |
| John Isner | +12500 | Loss in fourth round |
Cilic is joined mostly by the usual suspects, with No. 1 seed Novak Djokovic (+110) a convincing favorite to capture his third Grand Slam title of 2015 and his first U.S. Open title since 2011.
On his heels are Andy Murray (+350) and the man who continues to defy Father Time, 34-year-old Roger Federer (+400), fresh off a win over Djokovic in the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Cincinnati.
Fame, glory and renown are always on the line, but the 128-man field will also be competing for a pot worth more than $33 million, with the champion taking home $3.3 million:
| Finish | Winnings |
| Winner (1) | $3,300,000 |
| Runner-Up (1) | $1,600,000 |
| Semifinalists (2) | $805,000 |
| Quarterfinalists (4) | $410,975 |
| Round of 16 (8) | $213,575 |
| Third Round (16) | $120,200 |
| Second Round (32) | $68,600 |
| First Round (64) | $39,500 |
| Total (128) | $33,017,800 |
As last year's Cilic-Kei Nishikori championship match showed us, the U.S. Open is often a more opportune tournament for first-time Grand Slam title-seekers than its three brethren.
Despite that, don't bank on an unknown or unfamiliar face to capture this year's trophy; it doesn't feel like a year for the dark horse.
Here's a look at bracket predictions from the quarterfinals on, with a focus on several players with a strong chance to lift that trophy when all is said and done.
| Round | Matchup | Prediction |
| Quarterfinals | Novak Djokovic vs. Feliciano Lopez | Djokovic |
| Quarterfinals | Kei Nishikori vs. Marin Cilic | Nishikori |
| Quarterfinals | Stan Wawrinka vs. Andy Murray | Murray |
| Quarterfinals | Richard Gasquet vs. Roger Federer | Federer |
| Semifinals | Novak Djokovic vs. Kei Nishikori | Djokovic |
| Semifinals | Andy Murray vs. Roger Federer | Federer |
| Finals | Novak Djokovic vs. Roger Federer | Federer |
Road to Djokovic-Federer
Federer hasn't claimed a U.S. Open title since 2008, and he hasn't conquered a Grand Slam event since Wimbeldon in 2012.
So why is this the year?
Federer enters the U.S. Open fresh off a convincing victory over Djokovic in Cincinnati. His inventive, at times mesmerizing playing style and unique adaptive ability on the court has not yet succumbed to the miles on his body.
He's not the prohibitive favorite, but, as Sports Illustrated's Jon Wertheim explained, no one should count Federer out in New York:
"Federer’s defeat of Novak Djokovic in Cincy was a brilliant performance and Federer’s new tactics of essentially chipping and charging second serves worked masterfully. For Federer to replicate this result in New York, he’ll need to play more tennis, spend more time on the court and do so knowing that Djokovic’s fitness takes a backseat to no one. Doesn't mean it can't be done. But it’s a different exercise from what he pulled off in Ohio.
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Plus, as Bleacher Report's Merlisa Lawrence Corbett noted, Federer has been gifted with what could be a considered a less treacherous path to the finals than most:
"Seeded No. 2, Federer has to be ecstatic about his draw. The 17-Slam winner can almost coast into the second week. Federer may be tested by one of the big servers, Ivo Karlovic or John Isner. He could face Tomas Berdych in the quarterfinals and Stan Wawrinka or Andy Murray in the semifinals en route to a finals showdown with Djokovic.
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It's never wise to overlook The Djoker, but recent finals losses to Federer and Andy Murray in the two tournaments leading up to the U.S. Open have led many to believe he's just slightly more vulnerable than he has been in the past.
Everything seems to be coming into place for Grand Slam No. 18.
The Other Third of the Big Three
Just like Djokovic and Federer, Andy Murray is never one to be taken lightly.
Murray's first Grand Slam title came at this very tournament back in 2012. His five-set victory over Djokovic finally earned him the universal respect and gratitude that had previously been reserved for Djokovic, Federer and Rafael Nadal.
Murray finally broke free from Djokovic's hold on him earlier this year in Montreal, defeating the World No. 1 to claim his third Rogers Cup title.
Murray is as confident in his game as he's ever been.
Murray is 56-9 this season, with four titles to his name. He broke through The Djoker's wall, he's healthy, he's relaxed, and he could be primed for a second U.S. Open title.
"Probably in the last couple of years, I was coming in pretty stressed," Murray said, per ATPWorldTour.com. "I had problems with my back and was struggling to deal with that. I wasn’t enjoying the practising and preparation because I was in pain. I found it difficult. But now I feel healthier, I feel calmer, I feel more relaxed. That’s how I feel different."
A relaxed, confident Murray could spell trouble for the rest of the field. He has possibly the most intriguing first-round match of the tournament, meeting with World No. 37 Nick Kyrgios. It's a difficult early task, but don't expect Murray to falter against the fiery 20-year-old.
Murray certainly has a shot to get past Federer in the semifinals, and their potential meeting has all the makings of a Grand Slam epic.
A Nishikori-Cilic Rematch?
They won't be able to clash in the U.S. Open finals for a second consecutive year, but Kei Nishikori and Marin Cilic are on a quarterfinals collision course.
Cilic defeated Nishikori in straight sets (6-3, 6-3, 6-3) last year to claim his prize, but the Croatian's surprising victory has not translated to a strong 2015.
He hasn't captured even one singles title. Should that hold, it would be the first time he's not won a tournament over the course of a full season since 2007.
Sports Illustrated's Stanley Kay highlighted Cilic's struggles:
"Hampered by a lingering shoulder injury, Cilic has struggled throughout the season...Cilic’s struggles have been particularly acute against top competition. Cilic has played three matches in 2015 against players currently in the top ten, and he has failed to win a single set: He fell to Novak Djokovic, David Ferrer and Kei Nishikori at Monte Carlo, Roland Garros and Washington, D.C., respectively. That doesn’t bode well for a deep run at Flushing Meadows.
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Cilic could very well be bounced before his potential meeting with Nishikori, but the young Japanese native, on the other hand, is far less of a long shot to make another deep tournament run.
Unfortunately, Nishikori received one of the more unfavorable draws for top seeds, as noted by Corbett:
"Speaking of Nishikori, you have to wonder whom he offended to end up with this draw. Nishikori takes on the talented Frenchman Benoit Paire in the first. He could face veterans Radek Stepanek in the second round and Tommy Robredo in the third round. Gael Monfils could await Nishikori in the fourth round. His quarterfinals opponent could be the always frustrating David Ferrer or Grigor Dimitrov.
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But Nishikori has dropped just 10 of his 56 matches in 2015, per ATPWorldTour.com, and despite an ailing hip, he's confident in his chances and hungry for redemption.
“Part of me thinks that it was a good thing I lost (last year’s U.S. Open final),” Nishikori said, per the Japan Times. “It fueled my hunger, and I did well at the end of the season. My bitterness was a springboard for me this year."
He continued: “This summer has seen me put forward the best results of my life and I myself have high expectations. If I can avoid injury, I have a chance (to win)."
The Big Three are still considered the favorites, but if there's one player to keep one eye on at all times during the tournament, it just might be Kei Nishikori.
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