The Top 10 Storylines Ahead of the 2015 US Open
The U.S. Open, the final major of the season, rises from Flushing Meadows on Monday. As we examine storylines, none appear greater than Serena Williams' bid for the calendar Grand Slam.
She won the Australian Open and had that odd, delayed celebration at the end, as if her software was buffering. She won the French Open, and about four-and-a-half seconds after winning she was already thinking about Wimbledon.
After Wimbledon, how could she not think about the U.S. Open?
Williams headlines the U.S. Open concert, but the opening acts hardly play second fiddle. Novak Djokovic will look to secure his stance as the best men's player on tour, and Roger Federer, recent winner of the Western & Southern Open (over Djoker), looks to win his first U.S. Open since 2008, a year when he won his fifth in a row.
The chair umpire says to move this along, so read on for a sampling of the biggest storylines heading into the U.S. Open.
Which Rafael Nadal Will We See?
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Should Rafael Nadal fail to win the U.S. Open, it will be the first time since 2004 that he has failed to win at least one major tournament in a year. His dominance in the French Open—nine titles and counting (?)—helped with that streak, but victories in the Australian Open, Wimbledon and the U.S. Open bolstered his case as maybe the second-greatest player of all time.
Maybe it's as simple as remembering what made him so great in the first place: relentlessly grinding from the baseline and chasing down every ball while imparting vicious topspin that makes returning the ball feel like you're hitting a cannonball.
Larry Stefanki, one of the great tennis coaches, told Ravi Ubha of CNN.com:
"He probably needs to get someone that can say, "Hey listen, let's go back and watch you play Federer in the final of Wimbledon [in 2008]." This kid can definitely come back and win another major if he goes back and watches some clips. ... Rafa needs to kind of formulate a view point about the way he wants to go forward with the last quarter of his career.
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So maybe what Nadal needs is a makeover, not a complete overhaul of his game, to go from being a power pitcher to a crafty one. His game is the most physically punishing/masochistic we've seen, and once a player hits age 30 (he's 29), that doesn't fly anymore.
Nadal's recent "plunge" down the rankings possibly pits him against Djokovic in the quarterfinals for a second straight major. Should Nadal return to form, he'll need to earn it.
Victoria Azarenka Is the Second Betting Choice
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Victoria Azarenka has been one of the more interesting stories in women's tennis over the last year. Her hard work has made her the second betting choice at plus-800, behind only Williams, according to Odds Shark.
Azarenka has always been plagued by injuries, and her recent third-round withdrawal from the Western & Southern Open could be cause for concern.
"It was at the beginning more of a protection but it was a little bit there," she said in Matt Cronin's Tennis.com story. "I started to feel like getting a little bit worse and such a short period of time before the U.S. Open it's a little bit dangerous. I had to unfortunately make that decision."
She's a two-time U.S. Open finalist (2012 and 2013) who lost both times to Williams. If Azarenka reaches the final, it will likely be against Williams again. It would be a thrilling chapter to a one-sided "rivalry," one that has seen Williams win 17 of 20 meetings between the two.
Azarenka said:
"I'm not too worried about my game at the moment. I just need to take care of this thing. I don't think it's going to be a big deal, but it's definitely something I have to manage. You know, just reset my mind. I have been having some of the issues the last couple of weeks, but nothing that I can't overcome. I'm going to be ready for the Open.
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Good. Very good.
Novak Djokovic Goes for Grand Slam No. 10
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Only seven players in all of professional men's tennis have won 10 or more major tournaments. It's a short and illustrious list*, and Novak Djokovic could become the eighth man to join this lofty fraternity if he wins the U.S. Open.
Djokovic has the moxie and potential to be an all-time great. He already is a current great and only needs a French Open to give him the career Grand Slam; once he does that, he'll cement himself as a top-10 player in the history of the sport.
Darren Cahill, a tennis analyst for ESPN, said in Greg Garber's story for ESPN.com:
"Novak's been a trailblazer in the men's game, the best hard-court player, over the last five, six years. His career is tracking similarly to Roger Federer's. In my mind, he has a chance to place himself among the great, great players.
But for that one day Stan [Wawrinka] came out of his shoes, we'd be having the same conversation about him that we're having about Serena.
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In 15 of the last 20 major tournaments, Djokovic has reached the final. The other five? Four semifinals and one quarterfinal. He's on a Federer-like scorched-earth policy and is the odds-on favorite to win on September 13.
He was once a brat on the tour, mired in the two-man tangled web of Federer and Nadal. But he's matured and has become maybe the most affable player in men's tennis.
*Roger Federer, Pete Sampras, Rafael Nadal, Roy Emerson, Rod Laver, Bjorn Borg and Bill Tilden
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Madison Keys Looks to Regain Aussie Open Form
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Back in January during the Australian Open, Madison Keys plowed her way into the semifinals, where she lost, as so many women do, to Williams. Still, it looked like the future of American women's tennis was in good hands.
Since then, Keys hasn't had much success, though she did reach the quarterfinals at Wimbledon.
Earlier this month at the Bank of the West Classic in Stanford, California, she was in control of her match against Ajla Tomljanovic in the round of 16. Keys jumped out 6-1 but then got pummeled 4-6, 1-6 when it appeared she was a lock to advance.
Keys said in Carl Steward's San Jose Mercury News article:
"She really raised her level, and I think my level dropped. It's never easy feeling like you were playing so well in the first set and then you let things get away. It's tough to keep yourself in the moment and get yourself to calm down, and I wasn't able to. I just have to take it, learn from it and move on.
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Keys shares the same bracket with Williams. If Keys proves as capable as she was in Melbourne, she could reclaim some of the promising form that sold the public on her capacity to fill Williams' shoes...before ultimately losing again to Serena, of course.
Andy Murray Faces Nick Kyrgios in the First Round
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This is the match of the first round: Aussie "bad boy" Nick Kyrgios vs. Andy Murray. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Murray fall in this round. Kyrgios' flame burns bright, but he's also prone to a quick extinguishing. Perhaps Murray's best course of action will be to use Kyrgios' energy against him.
Murray also has the historical edge 3-0 against Kyrgios, so he has that in his corner. Murray took out Kyrgios in the Australian Open in straight sets en route to a berth in the finals against Djokovic.
For Kyrgios, he should be glad he isn't facing Richard Gasquet. He has sent Kyrgios home three times in 2015—none more painful than in the final of the Millennium Estoril Open in Portugal. Beyond that, Kyrgios has a hard time getting past the quarters.
For Murray, he can't forget he's the better player no matter what Kyrgios does with his serve or swagger. Murray, in possession of no swagger at all, has what's most important: game…and a U.S. Open trophy.
Marin Cilic Defends His Title—That's Right, Marin Cilic
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For all the talk of Djokovic's bid for a 10th Grand Slam and Nadal’s journey to find the form that won him 14 Grand Slams, it's Marin Cilic who, after all, is the defending champion of the U.S. Open.
No, seriously, Cilic is the defending champion. Look it up. He became just the second player not named Djokovic, Nadal, Murray or Federer to win a Grand Slam since 2004. Juan Martin del Potro won the U.S. Open in 2009, and Stan Wawrinka took the Australian Open in 2014. Beyond that it's been the Big Three (plus-one).
Cilic has not had what you could call a great encore season. It's like the crowd cheering for Bruce Springsteen to play "Born to Run" at the end of the show, but he breaks out something from Working on a Dream instead.
Cilic is 25-18 since winning the U.S. Open, but standing at 6'6" and possessing a fireball serve will make him a contender if he can get by Grigor Dimitrov in the third round.
Roger Federer Takes Yet Another Stab at Grand Slam No. 18
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To loosely quote Mark Twain, the reports of Roger Federer's death have been greatly exaggerated.
He still manages to reach deep into these Grand Slams—just maybe not with the degree of regularity that saw him reach 18 of 19 finals from 2005 to 2010. He won 12 of his record 17 majors during that stretch.
He enters this U.S. Open having defeated world No. 1 Novak Djokovic at the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati.
Winning that tournament was huge on a couple of levels. It proved he can still beat Djoker, but mainly, according to Chris Chase of USAToday.com, "Federer earned enough points with the win to stay at No. 2 in the rankings, ensuring he wouldn't face Djokovic until the U.S. Open finals, an enormous moral victory that looked to be all but impossible one week ago."
2008 was the last year Federer won the U.S. Open, and it's still within his grasp, slipping though it may be.
Collision Course Between Rafa Nadal and Novak Djokovic on the Docket
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Speaking of Nadal and Djokovic, it is entirely possible—nay, likely—that the pair intersect in the quarterfinals of the men's draw.
Djoker has won six of the last seven matches against Nadal, further signifying that's it's Djokovic and everyone else. The last time Djoker lost to Nadal on the hard court was in the 2013 U.S. Open final, which was subsequently the last match Nadal played at Flushing Meadows (he skipped 2014's tournament with an injury).
Should the two meet again in the quarterfinals here, I fear (for Nadal's sake, not that he needs my worry) Djokovic will win in straight sets. It won't be close.
It promises to be one of the most-watched matches of the tournament if it happens, but it may be a letdown and a watershed moment for Nadal.
Which Eugenie Bouchard Will Show Up in New York?
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We know the answer to this one already, and it is truly baffling. How is it that the same player who reached three semifinals in 2014 and one final (Wimbledon) has lost 14 of her last 17 matches in 2015? It doesn't make sense.
Perhaps the nagging abdominal injury deserves the blame, or maybe it's her former coach, Sam Sumyk. According to the Canadian Press, Bouchard said there were "big problems" with him, and now she has hired Jimmy Connors as her coach. Connors did well to bring Andy Roddick into competitive form, and now he'll try to rehabilitate Bouchard's game.
Perhaps what sank Bouchard most was a swelling ego. Her emergence on the stage saw her fire her first coach, Nick Saviano (you know, the one who got her noticed in the first place). Then she signed with a major agency, IMG/WME, which puts the onus on one's "brand."
That's the thing. Bouchard focused on her brand and not her game. There is no "brand" without winning. Serena Williams is a crossover athlete because she wins, which then enables her to monetize everything else.
It's not like Bouchard fails late in tournaments. That's acceptable. She can barely advance past the first round. She faces American Alison Riske in the first round of the U.S. Open and stands to lose yet again. Riske, while not the best of the American upstarts, is no slouch.
You know the Robert Frost poem "The Road Not Taken," right? There's a fork in the road for Bouchard—down one fork is Maria Sharapova, and down the other is Anna Kournikova.
Bouchard is at the road diverging in the yellow wood.
Serena Williams Vies for the Calendar Grand Slam
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Get this: The women's final sold out first, before the men's final. People want to be on hand should Serena Williams advance that far with the hopes of winning every major in one year, the coveted calendar Grand Slam, last won by Steffi Graf in 1988.
It's believed to be the only time in history the women's final sold out before the men's final, according to ESPN.com's Darren Rovell. The Williams effect dives deeper and becomes far more valuable.
The ticket resale value for the women's final is $859 to the men's $897, a difference of $38. The smallest the average difference in price before this meager $38 was $150 back in 2012. That's the Serena effect, and she's primed to make this happen.
"Wimbledon gave me unbelievable practice for this because at Wimbledon I was going for the second Serena Slam and that is rare," Williams said in Paul Newman's story for the Independent. "That really gave me the best practice and preparation in terms of going for the Grand Slam."
She romped at Cincinnati, beating No. 6 seed Ana Ivanovic, No. 14 seed Elina Svitolina and then No. 3 seed Simona Halep in the final.
All signs are a go for Williams' pursuit of the single-season Grand Slam.
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